3.Analysis on 10 year survival of HIV/AIDS patients receiving antiretroviral therapy during 2003-2005 in Henan province.
Y SUN ; Q X ZHAO ; C F LI ; X YANG ; X ZHANG ; C L LIU ; Z Y CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(7):966-970
Objective: To understand the survival of HIV/AIDS patients after receiving antiretroviral therapy for 10 year in Henan province and related factors. Methods: The database of national integrated management system of HIV/AIDS was used to collect the basic information and follow-up information of HIV/AIDS patients who received antiretroviral therapy between 2003 and 2005 in Henan province. Software SPSS 23.0 was used to analyze the patients' survival and related factors based on the life-table method and Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Among the 2 448 HIV/AIDS patients who started antiretroviral therapy during 2003-2005, the men accounted for 53.5%, and women accounted for 46.5%. Up to 70.1% of the patients were aged 40-59 years and 95.5% of the patients had blood borne infections. The patients were observed for 10 years after antiviral treatment, and 719 cases died from AIDS related diseases, with a mortality rate of 3.78/100 per year (719/19 010 per year). The cumulative survival rates of patients within 1-year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years were 0.94, 0.86, 0.78, 0.69 respectively. Compared with the patients aged <40 years, the HRs of the patients aged 40-, 50-, 60- and ≥70 years were 1.417 (95%CI: 0.903-2.222), 1.834 (95%CI: 1.174-2.866), 2.422 (95%CI: 1.539-3.810) and 3.424 (95%CI: 2.053-5.709) respectively. Compared with patients with baseline CD(4+)T lymphocyte >350 unit/ul, the HRs of the patients with CD(4+)T lymphocyte <50 unit/μl, 50-199 unit/ul and 200-350 unit/ul were 7.105 (95%CI: 5.449-9.264), 4.175 (95%CI: 3.249-5.366) and 2.214 (95%CI: 1.691-2.900) respectively. Compared with the women, the HR of the men was 1.480 (95%CI: 1.273-1.172). Compared with the patients who received second line ART therapy, the HR of patients receiving no second line therapy was 11.923 (95%CI: 9.410-15.104). Conclusions: The cumulative survival rate the HIV/AIDS patients after 10 years of antiretroviral therapy reached 0.69 in Henan. Male, old age, low basic CD(4+)T lymphocyte count and receiving no second line therapy were the risk factors for long-term survival of AIDS patients.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
;
Adult
;
Aged
;
Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active
;
CD4 Lymphocyte Count
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Female
;
HIV/drug effects*
;
HIV Infections/mortality*
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Risk Factors
;
Survival Analysis
;
Survival Rate
4.Stratified sampling survey of major human parasitic diseases in Henan province.
B L XU ; H W ZHANG ; Y DENG ; Z L CHEN ; W Q CHEN ; D L LU ; Y L ZHANG ; Y L ZHAO ; X M LIN ; Q HUANG ; C Y YANG ; Y LIU ; R M ZHOU ; P LI ; J S CHEN ; L J HE ; D QIAN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(3):322-328
Objective: To understand the prevalence of major human parasitic diseases and related factors in Henan province. Methods: This stratified sampling survey was carried out according to the requirement of national survey protocol of major human parasitic diseases, 2014-2015. The prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths infection, taeniasis and intestinal protozoiasis were surveyed in 104 sites selected from 35 counties (districts) and the prevalence of clonorchiasis was surveyed in 62 sites selected from 37 townships. In each survey spot, 250 persons were surveyed. A total of 26 866 persons and 15 893 persons were surveyed. Modified Kato-Katz thick smear was used to detect the eggs of intestinal helminthes. Tube fecal culture was used to identify the species of hookworm. The Enterobius eggs were detected in children aged 3 to 6 years by using adhesive tape. The cyst and trophozoite of intestinal protozoa were examined with physiological saline direct smear method and iodine stain method. Results: The overall infestation rate of intestinal parasites was2.02% in Henan, and the worm infection rate was higher than protozoa infection rate. Fourteen kinds of intestinal parasites were found, including nematode (5 species), trematode (2 species), and protozoan (7 species). The infection rate of Enterobius vermicularis was highest, and Qinba Mountain ecological area had the highest infestation rate of intestinal parasites in 4 ecological areas of Henan. There was no significant difference in intestinal parasite infection rate between males and females (χ(2)=3.630, P=0.057), and the differences in intestinal parasite infection rate among different age groups had significance (χ(2)=124.783, P=0.000 1). The infection rate reached the peak in age group ≤9 years and the major parasite was Enterobius vermicularis. Furthermore the overall human infection rate of parasite showed a downward trend with the increase of educational level of the people (χ(2)=70.969, P=0.000 1), the differences had significance (χ(2)=120.118, P=0.000 1). For different populations, the infection rate of intestinal parasites was highest among preschool children. The infection of intestinal helminth was mainly mild, only 2 severe cases were detected. The infection rate of Clonorchis sinensis in urban residents was only 0.006%. Logistic regression analysis showed that being preschool children (χ(2)=15.765, P=0.000 1) and drinking well water (χ(2)=45.589, P=0.000 1) were the risk factors for intestinal parasite infection, and annual income per capita of farmers was the protective factor against intestinal parasite infection. The infection rates of protozoa and intestinal parasites decreased sharply compared with the results of previous two surveys, and the rate of intestinal helminth infection also dropped sharply compared with the second survey. The numbers of protozoa, helminth and intestinal parasites detected in this survey were all less than the numbers found in the previous two surveys. Conclusions: Compared the results of three surveys in Henan, the infection rate of protozoa and intestinal parasites showed a downward trend. The prevention and treatment of Enterobius vermicularis infection in children should be the key point of parasitic disease control in the future.
Animals
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Child
;
Child, Preschool
;
Clonorchiasis/epidemiology*
;
Farmers
;
Feces/parasitology*
;
Female
;
Helminthiasis/epidemiology*
;
Helminths
;
Humans
;
Intestinal Diseases, Parasitic/parasitology*
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Male
;
Prevalence
;
Protective Factors
;
Risk Factors
;
Rural Population
;
Soil Microbiology
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
Taeniasis/epidemiology*
;
Trematode Infections/parasitology*
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Urban Population
;
Water Wells
5.Application of ARIMA model in prediction of mortality rate of suicide in Hainan province.
Y LIU ; X M HU ; Y CHEN ; Z W FU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(5):664-668
Objective: To analyze the trend of suicide mortality in residents of Hainan province, and explore the application of time sequence model in the prediction of the mortality of suicide. Methods: The mortality data of suicide in residents of Hainan province between January, 2014 and December, 2016 were collected and analyzed with time sequence model and the mortality rate of suicide during January-June, 2017 in Hainan was predicted with the model. Results: During January, 2014 to June 2017, a total of 576 suicide cases were reported in Hainan, the mortality rate was 1.5/100 000. The established ARIMA model had good fitting for the suicide mortality in previous times and the prediction result was quite similar to the actual mortality, the predicted mortality rate was within the 95% confidence interval of the actual rate. Conclusion: The time sequence model for the prediction of suicide mortality in Hainan was "ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (0, 0, 0) (12)" , and the prediction effect of the model was better, which can be used to predict the suicide mortality in Hainan.
China/epidemiology*
;
Humans
;
Incidence
;
Models, Statistical
;
Mortality/trends*
;
Suicide/trends*
6.Epidemiological and pathogenic characteristics of mumps in Fujian province, 2005-2017.
D LI ; Z F CHEN ; X H YANG ; W Y PAN ; Q WANG ; S H ZHANG ; N X ZHENG ; L F HUANG ; Y ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(10):1356-1361
Objective: To understand the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of mumps in Fujian province, 2005-2017. Methods: All the reported mumps cases were collected through the National Notifiable Disease Information Management System, 2005-2017. Active search and interviews were conducted to collect the information on vaccination of mumps. Throat swab specimens were collected for cells culture, genotyping and gene sequence analysis on mumps virus (MuV). Results: A total of 83 959 cases of mumps were reported in Fujian province from 2005 to 2017, with an average annual incidence of 17.6 per 100 000. Since 2007, the incidence appeared increasing but then decreasing, reaching the lowest level (7.5 per 100 000), after the setup of a monitoring program. Annually, the onset time of mumps showed an obvious two seasonal peaks, one from April to July, with a weakening trend, and the other from October to January with a rising trend. Most of the mumps cases occurred among students, kindergarten and scattered children (89.2%, 5 814/6 517), children aged 5-9 years (38.8%, 2 527/6 517), with cases reported from every region. Program from the pathogen surveillance showed that the transmission chain of G genotype mumps virus did exist in Fujian. Data from the sequence analysis revealed that mutations in the nucleotide of G genotype strain in 2015 had led to mutation of 6 amino acid sites in the SH gene coding region, resulting in the differences appearing in both nucleotide and amino acid homology with type A vaccine strain. Conclusions: The incidence of mumps decreased annually, in Fujian. Prevention programs should focus on primary and secondary school students. In Fujian province, we also noticed the transmission chain of mumps G genotype with some amino acid mutations in the SH gene coding region. Monitor programs on both epidemiologic and etiology, should be strengthened.
Child
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Child, Preschool
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Genotype
;
Humans
;
Incidence
;
Mumps/epidemiology*
;
Mumps virus/pathogenicity*
;
Phylogeny
;
Sequence Analysis
7.Application of restricted mean survival time in clinical follow-up study.
Z J YANG ; J J LYU ; Y W HOU ; Z CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2019;40(2):247-250
In clinical follow-up studies, hazard ratio (HR) is routinely used to quantify the differences between-groups, however, it is being estimated by the Cox procedure. HR, the ratio of two hazard functions has abstract meaning only and is in lack of the context to give an intuitive explanation of the survival of patients and the assumption of proportional hazards (PH) must be satisfied. Under this context, the restricted mean survival time (RMST) can be used as a relatively effective measure or index of statistics. This paper introduces the RMST-based statistical analysis methods, including estimation of RMST and its difference, hypothesis testing and regression analysis. The application of RMST in data analysis is also introduced. All the evidence demonstrates that RMST can be used as an effective analytical tool with straightforward interpretation. RMST is also more effective than HR in comparing differences between groups, when non-PH is observed. Therefore, RMST is suggested to be stated along with HR in the process of disease efficacy evaluation and prognosis analysis. Cooperation and complement of the two, a precise reflection on the characteristics of data can be expected.
Clinical Trials as Topic
;
Endpoint Determination/methods*
;
Follow-Up Studies
;
Humans
;
Kaplan-Meier Estimate
;
Prognosis
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Regression Analysis
;
Survival Rate/trends*
;
Treatment Outcome
8.Prevalence of drug resistance in treatment-naive HIV infected men who have sex with men in Guangzhou, 2008-2015.
Z G HAN ; Y L ZHANG ; H WU ; K GAO ; Y T ZHAO ; Y Z GU ; Y C CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(7):977-982
Objective: To understand the prevalence of drug resistance in treatment-naive HIV infected men who have sex with (MSM) in Guangzhou. Methods: HIV-1 RNA were extracted from the serum specimens of the MSM newly confirmed to be HIV-1 positive, living in Guangzhou and receiving no anti-viral therapy from 2008 to 2015. HIV-1 pol gene segments, including full protease and part reverse transcriptase, were amplified by nested reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (nested-PCR) and sequenced by Sanger. Subsequently, the sequence data were submitted to Stanford University HIV Drug Resistance Database for drug resistance analysis. Results: Among 2 283 HIV infected MSM, HIV-1 pol gene segments were obtained from the serum samples of 1 986 HIV infected MSM aged 16-84 (30.18±8.24) years. Among them, the unmarried accounted for 74.17% (1 473/1 986), those of Han ethnic group accounted for 90.64% (1 800/1 986), those with education level of college or above accounted for 49.65% (986/1 986), those with education level of senior high school or secondary school accounted for 27.14% (539/1 986), those with education level of junior high school or below accounted for 20.89% (415/1 986). The distribution of subtypes was predominated by CRF07_BC (38.22%, 759/1 986) and CRF01_AE (34.49%, 685/1 986). The overall prevalence of drug resistance was 3.32% (66/1 986). The prevalence of resistance to protease inhibitors (PIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) were 1.36%(27/1 986), 0.65% (13/1 986) and 1.61% (32/1 986), respectively. Subtype B had higher resistance to PIs, NRTIs and NNRTIs and subtype CRF55_01B had highest resistance to NNRTIs compared with other subtypes. In subtype B, the resistant rates to D4T, EFV and NVP were highest (all 4.17%, 5/120), followed by those to NFV, AZT and RPV (all 3.33%, 4/120). In subtype CRF55_01B, the resistant rates to EFV and NVP were highest (all 5.50%, 16/291), followed by those to ETR and RPV (all 5.15%, 15/291). Conclusions: The prevalence of drug resistance in treatment-naive HIV infected MSM in Guangzhou remained at low level and current antiretroviral drugs are generally effective. However, subtype B and CRF55_01B have higher drug resistance.
Adolescent
;
Adult
;
Child
;
Drug Resistance, Viral
;
Genotype
;
HIV Infections/ethnology*
;
Homosexuality, Male/statistics & numerical data*
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Phylogeny
;
Prevalence
;
RNA, Viral/genetics*
;
Sexual and Gender Minorities
;
Young Adult
10.Role of blood markers in predicting the failure of prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation for treatment of periprosthetic joint infection.
J C HUANG ; Q K WANG ; Z Y SONG ; Z Y GAO ; X CHEN ; Z P DAI ; J ZHENG ; Y JIN
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(8):681-687
Objective: To investigate the value of inflammation,coagulation and nutrition markers in predicting the failure of prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation for treatment of periprosthetic joint infection(PJI). Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 70 patients who undertook prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation due to PJI from June 2016 to October 2020 in the Department of Orthopedics,Henan Provincial People's Hospital. There were 28 males and 42 females,aged (65.5±11.9) years (range: 37 to 88 years). Patients were divided into two groups as the successful group and the failed group depended on whether reinfection occurred after prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation at the last follow up. Patient demographics,laboratory values (C-reactive protein (CRP),erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR),ESR and CRP ratio (ESR/CRP),white blood cell count(WBC),platelet count(PLT),hemoglobin(HB),total lymphocyte count(TLC),albumin、fibrinogen(FIB),CRP and albumin ratio (CAR),prognostic nutritional index(PNI)),and reinfection rates were assessed. Comparison between groups was conducted by the independent sample t test or χ2test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted,and the area under the curve (AUC),optimal diagnostic threshold,sensitivity,and specificity were analyzed to predict the failure of prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation. Results: All patients were followed up for at least two years,and the follow-up time was (38.4±15.2) months (range: 24 to 66 months). Fifteen patients suffered failure after prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation,while the other 55 patients succeeded. The overall failure rate of prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation in PJI treatment was 21.4%. Level of preoperative CRP ((35.9±16.2)mg/L),PLT ((280.0±104.0)×109/L) and CAR (1.3±0.8) in successful group were lower than CRP ((71.7±47.3)mg/L),PLT ((364.7±119.3)×109/L) and CAR (2.5±2.0) in failed group (all P<0.05).Whereas,level of preoperative ESR/CRP (3.3±3.1), Albumin ((35.3±5.2)g/L) and PNI (43.6±6.2) in successful group were higher than ESR/CRP (1.6±1.4),Albumin ((31.3±4.8)g/L) and PNI (39.2±15.1) in failed group (all P<0.05). AUC of ROC curve,optimal threshold value,sensitivity and specificity of CRP,ESR/CRP, PLT, Albumin,CAR and PNI for the predicting failure of prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation were 0.776(95%CI:0.660 to 0.867),35.4 mg/L,86.7%,67.3%;0.725(95%CI:0.605 to 0.825),1.0,60.0%,78.2%;0.713(95%CI:0.593 to 0.815),253,93.3%,47.3%;0.721(95%CI:0.601 to 0.822),35.7,93.3%,49.1%;0.772(95%CI:0.656 to 0.863),1.1,86.7%,67.3%;0.706(95%CI:0.585 to 0.809),45.7,100%,41.8% respectively. Conclusion: In patients with PJI,CRP>35.4,ESR/CRP≤1.0 and CAR>1.1 could predict the failure of prosthesis removal and antibiotic-loaded bone cement spacer implantation.