Objective To investigate the risk factors and establish the Cox's regression model and the personal prognosis index for the recurrence of ischemic stroke in 3-year follow-up.methods 1058 patients were retrospectively reviewed consecutively diagnosed with ischemic stroke admitted to the Neurology Department of the Hebei united University Affiliated Hospital from January 1,2013 to December 31,2013.Cases were followed up since the onset of ischemic stroke.The follow-up was finished in January 1,2016.Kaplan-Meier methods were used for recurrence rate description.Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze risk factors associated with recurrence.Thus,a recurrence model was set up.Result sDuring the period of follow-up,184 cases relapsed.The 1-year recurrence rate was 29.9 person-year,2-year recurrence rate was 46.6 person-year,3-year recurrence rate was 52.7 person-year.Monovariant and multivariant Cox's proportional hazard regression model showed that the independent risk factors associated with recurrence were age(X1)(RR=1.303;95%CI:1.019~1.666)history of heart disease(X2)(RR=1.788;95%CI:1.127~2.836),hypertension(X3)(RR=1.897;95%CI:1.097~3.280),diabetes(X4)(RR=1.674;95%CI:1.015~2.760),total cholesterol(X5)(RR=2.136;95%CI:1.396~3.266).The personal prognosis index(PI)of recurrence model was as the following: PI=0.265X1+0.581X2+0.640X3+0.515X4+0.759X5.Conclusion sAge,history of heart disease,hypertension,disease progression,and total cholesterol are the independent risk factors associated with recurrence of ischemic stroke.The recurrence model and the personal prognosis index equation are successful constructed.

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of varicella and the genetic characteristics of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in Yangzhou in 2021, and to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific prevention and control of varicella in Yangzhou. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was carried out on the varicella outbreaks reported in Yangzhou in 2021. Throat swabs or herpes fluid samples from varicella cases in 2021 were collected, and the viral nucleic acid was detected by real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR. The genotype and evolutionary relationship of the virus strain were determined according to the 6 SNPs in the ORF22 gene fragment sequence. Results In 2021, there were 20 varicella outbreaks in Yangzhou, involving 147 cases, all of which occurred in kindergartens and primary and secondary schools, and the peak incidence was in the age group of 4-7 years old. The high incidence time of the outbreaks was from May to July, and from November to January of the next year. The varicella vaccination rate of the cases was low, and all were 1-dose vaccination. The gene sequencing results of 8 samples were J/clade 2, and 3 of them had A-C synonymous mutation at position 37997 in ORF22 sequence. Conclusion In 2021, varicella outbreaks in Yangzhou occurred mainly in kindergartens and schools. Preschool children are susceptible, all of which are caused by J/clade 2 varicella-zoster virus. It is suggested to strengthen the monitoring and management of the varicella epidemic situation in schools in the city, and at the same time incorporate the varicella vaccine into the routine immunization program of the city and strengthen 2 doses of varicella vaccination.