Submucosal invasive (T1) colorectal cancer is a significant clinical management challenge, with an estimated 10% of patients developing extraintestinal lymph node metastasis. This condition necessitates surgical resection along with lymph node dissection to achieve a curative outcome. Thus, the precise preoperative assessment of lymph node metastasis risk is crucial to guide treatment decisions after endoscopic resection. Contemporary clinical guidelines strive to identify a low-risk cohort for whom endoscopic resection will suffice, applying stringent criteria to maximize patient safety. Those failing to meet these criteria are often recommended for surgical resection, with its associated mortality risks although it may still include patients with a low risk of metastasis. In the quest to enhance the precision of preoperative lymph node metastasis risk prediction, innovative models leveraging artificial intelligence or nomograms are being developed. Nevertheless, the debate over the ideal sensitivity and specificity for such models persists, with no consensus on target metrics. This review puts forth postoperative mortality rates as a practical benchmark for the sensitivity of predictive models. We underscore the importance of this method and advocate for research to amass data on surgical mortality in T1 colorectal cancer. Establishing specific benchmarks for predictive accuracy in lymph node metastasis risk assessment will hopefully optimize the treatment of T1 colorectal cancer.

Submucosal invasive (T1) colorectal cancer is a significant clinical management challenge, with an estimated 10% of patients developing extraintestinal lymph node metastasis. This condition necessitates surgical resection along with lymph node dissection to achieve a curative outcome. Thus, the precise preoperative assessment of lymph node metastasis risk is crucial to guide treatment decisions after endoscopic resection. Contemporary clinical guidelines strive to identify a low-risk cohort for whom endoscopic resection will suffice, applying stringent criteria to maximize patient safety. Those failing to meet these criteria are often recommended for surgical resection, with its associated mortality risks although it may still include patients with a low risk of metastasis. In the quest to enhance the precision of preoperative lymph node metastasis risk prediction, innovative models leveraging artificial intelligence or nomograms are being developed. Nevertheless, the debate over the ideal sensitivity and specificity for such models persists, with no consensus on target metrics. This review puts forth postoperative mortality rates as a practical benchmark for the sensitivity of predictive models. We underscore the importance of this method and advocate for research to amass data on surgical mortality in T1 colorectal cancer. Establishing specific benchmarks for predictive accuracy in lymph node metastasis risk assessment will hopefully optimize the treatment of T1 colorectal cancer.

Submucosal invasive (T1) colorectal cancer is a significant clinical management challenge, with an estimated 10% of patients developing extraintestinal lymph node metastasis. This condition necessitates surgical resection along with lymph node dissection to achieve a curative outcome. Thus, the precise preoperative assessment of lymph node metastasis risk is crucial to guide treatment decisions after endoscopic resection. Contemporary clinical guidelines strive to identify a low-risk cohort for whom endoscopic resection will suffice, applying stringent criteria to maximize patient safety. Those failing to meet these criteria are often recommended for surgical resection, with its associated mortality risks although it may still include patients with a low risk of metastasis. In the quest to enhance the precision of preoperative lymph node metastasis risk prediction, innovative models leveraging artificial intelligence or nomograms are being developed. Nevertheless, the debate over the ideal sensitivity and specificity for such models persists, with no consensus on target metrics. This review puts forth postoperative mortality rates as a practical benchmark for the sensitivity of predictive models. We underscore the importance of this method and advocate for research to amass data on surgical mortality in T1 colorectal cancer. Establishing specific benchmarks for predictive accuracy in lymph node metastasis risk assessment will hopefully optimize the treatment of T1 colorectal cancer.

Submucosal invasive (T1) colorectal cancer is a significant clinical management challenge, with an estimated 10% of patients developing extraintestinal lymph node metastasis. This condition necessitates surgical resection along with lymph node dissection to achieve a curative outcome. Thus, the precise preoperative assessment of lymph node metastasis risk is crucial to guide treatment decisions after endoscopic resection. Contemporary clinical guidelines strive to identify a low-risk cohort for whom endoscopic resection will suffice, applying stringent criteria to maximize patient safety. Those failing to meet these criteria are often recommended for surgical resection, with its associated mortality risks although it may still include patients with a low risk of metastasis. In the quest to enhance the precision of preoperative lymph node metastasis risk prediction, innovative models leveraging artificial intelligence or nomograms are being developed. Nevertheless, the debate over the ideal sensitivity and specificity for such models persists, with no consensus on target metrics. This review puts forth postoperative mortality rates as a practical benchmark for the sensitivity of predictive models. We underscore the importance of this method and advocate for research to amass data on surgical mortality in T1 colorectal cancer. Establishing specific benchmarks for predictive accuracy in lymph node metastasis risk assessment will hopefully optimize the treatment of T1 colorectal cancer.

Approximately 40%–65% of new fitness club (FC) members cancel their membership within 6 months. To prevent such cancellations, it is essential to identify members at high risk of doing so. This study developed a model to predict the probability of discontinuing FC membership among new members. We conducted a cohort study and enrolled participants from 17 FCs in Japan. We asked 5,421 individuals who became members from March 29, 2015 to April 5, 2016 to participate in the study; 2,934 completed the baseline survey, which was conducted when the participants became FC members. We followed up the participants until September 30, 2016. We excluded 883 participants with missing values and 69 participants under aged 18 years; thus, our analysis covered 1,982 individuals. We conducted the random survival forest to develop the prediction model. The mean follow-up period was 296.3 (standard deviation, 127.3) days; 488 participants (24.6%) cancelled their membership during the follow-up. The prediction model comprised 8 predictors: age; month of joining FC; years of education; being under medical follow-up; reasons for joining FC (health improvement, relaxation); and perceived benefits from exercise (maintaining good body weight, recognition of one’s ability by other). The discrimination and calibration were acceptable (C statistic: 0.692, continuous ranked probability score: 0.134). Our findings suggest that the prediction model could assess the valid probability for early FC cancellation among new members; however, a validation study will be needed.