Objective To study the application of the trinity model and trinity forecasting method in predicting the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB).Methods By applying the monthly PTB incidence data in Zhe-jiang Province from 2011 to 2021,a prediction model was constructed based on the trinity model and trinity forecas-ting method.Predictive performance of the model was evaluated.Results The mean relative prediction errors of model 1 and model 2 based on trinity model and trinity forecasting method were 7.94％and 8.43％,respectively.The mean relative prediction error obtained by adopting autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was 8.87％,and the above mean relative prediction error were all in the range of 7.9％-8.9％,which presented an excellent performance of the forecasting model.Conclusion The trinity model is an excellent time series forecasting model,and the trinity forecasting method is an excellent time series forecasting method,with high application value.

Objective: To analyze the trends of the age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data were extracted from the Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019. A total of 253 037 Han girls aged 9 to 18 years with complete data on menarche were selected in this study. They were asked one-on-one about their menstrual status, age and residence information. The median age of menarche was estimated by probability regression. U tests were used to compare the difference in median age at menarche in different years. Results: The median age at menarche (95%CI) among Chinese Han girls was 12.47 (12.09-12.83) years in 2010, 12.17 (11.95-12.38) years in 2014 and 12.05 (10.82-13.08) years in 2019, respectively. Compared with that in 2010, the median age at menarche in 2019 decreased by 0.42 years (U=-77.27, P<0.001). The annual average changes were-0.076 years from 2010 to 2014 (U=-57.19, P<0.001) and-0.023 years from 2014 to 2019 (U=-21.41, P<0.001), respectively. The average annual changes in urban areas in the periods of 2010 to 2014 and 2014 to 2019 were-0.071 years and 0.006 years, respectively, while those in rural areas were-0.082 years and-0.053 years, respectively. The average annual changes in the regions of north, northeast, east, south central, southwest and northwest were-0.064, -0.099, -0.091, -0.080, -0.096 and-0.041 years in the period of 2010 to 2014 and 0.001, -0.040, -0.002, -0.005, -0.043 and-0.081 years in the period of 2014 to 2019. Conclusion: The age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years shows an advanced trend from 2010 to 2019, and the trends in urban and rural areas and different regions have different characteristics.

Objective: To analyze the long-term trend of the age of spermarche among Chinese Han boys aged 11 to 18 from 2010 to 2019 and its association with nutritional status. Methods: The data from Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019 were used. The age, residence and spermarche of the participants were collected by questionnaire, and their height and weight were measured. A total of 184 633 Han boys aged 11‒18 years with complete data on spermarche, height, and weight were included in this study. The probability regression method was used to calculate the median age (95%CI) at spermarche in different areas, and the trend of age at spermarche in different groups was compared. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the association between nutritional status and spermarche of Chinese Han boys aged 11‒18 years. Results: The median age of spermarche (95%CI) was 13.85 (13.45-14.22) years old among Chinese Han boys aged 11‒18 years in 2019, with 0.18 years earlier than that in 2010. The median age at spermarche in urban and rural boys was 13.89 and 13.81 years, respectively. Compared with that in 2010, the age at spermarche in urban and rural boys was 0.08 and 0.27 years earlier, respectively. After adjusting for age, province and urban/rural areas, compared with normal weight, spermarche was negatively associated with wasting and positively associated with overweight and obesity, with OR (95%CI) about 0.73 (0.67-0.80), 1.09 (1.02-1.17) and 1.09 (1.01-1.18), respectively. Conclusion: The age of spermarche generally shows an advanced trend among Chinese Han boys and is associated with nutritional status.

Objective: To analyze the trend of the detection rate of myopia among Chinese Han children and adolescents aged 7-18 years from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data from the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019 were used, and about 213 833, 212 742 and 209 942 Han students aged 7-18 years were included in this study. The χ² test was used to compare the differences in the prevalence of myopia among the subgroups in the survey year, and logistic regression was used to compare the differences in the prevalence of myopia between different years. A curve-fitting method was used to obtain the growth rate of myopia among Han Chinese students from 2010 to 2019, and the differences in the change of myopia between different age groups were analyzed. Results: In 2019, the overall detection rate of myopia among Chinese Han children and adolescents aged 7-18 was 60.1%. The detection rate of urban students (62.7%) was higher than that of rural students (57.4%) and the detection rate of girls (63.5%) was higher than that of boys (56.7%). In 2019, the regional disparities were large in the detection rate of myopia in various provinces, with the lowest in Guizhou (49.6%) and the highest in Zhejiang (71.3%). The detection rate of myopia showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2019, from 55.5% in 2010 to 57.1% in 2014, and finally to 60.1% in 2019. The gap in the detection rate of myopia between urban and rural children and adolescents gradually shrank. The average annual growth rate of myopia detection rate from 2014 to 2019 was 0.6 percentage points per year, higher than that from 2010 to 2014 about 0.4 percentage points per year. The peak age of the growth rate of myopia detection rate decreased from 12 years in 2010 to 10 years in 2014, and finally to 7 years in 2019. Conclusions: The detection rate of myopia among Chinese Han children and adolescents is still at a high level, and the peak age of the growth rate of myopia detection rate continues to advance.

Objective: To analyze the perceived exercise benefits and barriers and their association with physical activity time in Chinese Han children and adolescents aged 9-18 years. Methods: Data were extracted from the 2019 Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health and a total of 163 656 children and adolescents aged 9-18 years in Han ethnic group were included in the analysis. Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to compare the perceived exercise benefits score, perceived exercise barriers score and perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio in the children and adolescents with different demographic characteristics and physical activity time. The differences in physical activity time in subgroups were compared with χ² tests. log-binomial regression model was used to evaluate the association between physical activity time and perceived exercise benefits and barriers. Results: The M (Q₁,Q₃) of the perceived exercise benefits score, perceived exercise barriers score, and perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio in the children and adolescents were 4.11 (3.78, 4.78), 2.70 (2.10, 3.20) and 1.55 (1.22, 2.07), respectively. Children and adolescents living in urban area, boys, those at younger age and those with physical activity time ≥1 hour had higher perceived exercise benefits score and perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio, but lower perceived exercise barriers score (all P<0.001). The prevalence of physical activity time ≥1 hour was 41.4% in the children and adolescents. In the log-binomial model with two variables of perceived exercise benefits score and perceived exercise barriers score, for each 1-point increase in the perceived exercise benefits, the possibility of physical activity time ≥1 hour increased by 11% (OR=1.11, 95%CI: 1.10-1.12), and for each 1-point increase in the perceived exercise barriers, the possibility of physical activity time ≥1 hour decreased by 15% (OR=0.85, 95%CI: 0.84-0.85). In the log-binomial model with variable of perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio, for each 1-point increase in the perceived exercise benefits to barriers ratio, the possibility of physical activity time ≥1 hour increased by 12% (OR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.11-1.12). Conclusion: The perceived exercise benefits and barriers are significantly associated with physical activity time in children and adolescents in China.
Adolescent ; Child ; Humans ; Male ; Asian People ; China ; Ethnicity ; Exercise ; Students ; Female

Objective: To analyze the trends of the age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years from 2010 to 2019. Methods: Data were extracted from the Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health in 2010, 2014 and 2019. A total of 253 037 Han girls aged 9 to 18 years with complete data on menarche were selected in this study. They were asked one-on-one about their menstrual status, age and residence information. The median age of menarche was estimated by probability regression. U tests were used to compare the difference in median age at menarche in different years. Results: The median age at menarche (95%CI) among Chinese Han girls was 12.47 (12.09-12.83) years in 2010, 12.17 (11.95-12.38) years in 2014 and 12.05 (10.82-13.08) years in 2019, respectively. Compared with that in 2010, the median age at menarche in 2019 decreased by 0.42 years (U=-77.27, P<0.001). The annual average changes were -0.076 years from 2010 to 2014 (U=-57.19, P<0.001) and -0.023 years from 2014 to 2019 (U=-21.41, P<0.001), respectively. The average annual changes in urban areas in the periods of 2010 to 2014 and 2014 to 2019 were -0.071 years and 0.006 years, respectively, while those in rural areas were -0.082 years and -0.053 years, respectively. The average annual changes in the regions of north, northeast, east, south central, southwest and northwest were -0.064, -0.099, -0.091, -0.080, -0.096 and -0.041 years in the period of 2010 to 2014 and 0.001, -0.040, -0.002, -0.005, -0.043 and -0.081 years in the period of 2014 to 2019. Conclusion: The age of menarche among Chinese Han girls aged 9 to 18 years shows an advanced trend from 2010 to 2019, and the trends in urban and rural areas and different regions have different characteristics.
Female ; Humans ; Menarche ; Probability ; East Asian People ; Child ; Adolescent

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between outdoor artificial light-at-night (ALAN) exposure and overweight and obesity among children and adolescents aged 9 to 18 years in China. METHODS: Using follow-up data of 5 540 children and adolescents aged 9 to 18 years conducted from November 2019 to November 2020 in eight provinces of China, latitude and longitude were determined based on school addresses, and the mean monthly average nighttime irradiance at the location of 116 schools was extracted by the nearest neighbor method to obtain the mean outdoor ALAN exposure [unit: nW/(cm²·sr)] for each school. Four indicators of overweight and obesity outcomes were included: Baseline overweight and obesity, persistent overweight and obesity, overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence. Mixed effects Logistic regression was used to explore the association between ALAN exposure levels (divided into quintiles Q1-Q5) and baseline overweight and obesity, persistent overweight and obesity, overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence. In addition, a natural cubic spline function was used to explore the exposure response association between ALAN exposure (a continuous variable) and the outcomes. RESULTS: The prevalence of baseline overweight and obesity, persistent overweight and obesity, overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence among the children and adolescents in this study were 21.6%, 16.3%, 2.9% and 12.8%, respectively. The OR value for the association between ALAN exposure and baseline overweight and obesity was statistically significant when ALAN exposure levels reached Q4 or Q5, 1.90 (95%CI: 1.26-2.86) and 1.77 (95%CI: 1.11-2.83), respectively, compared with the children and adolescents in the Q1 group of ALAN exposure. Similar to the results for baseline overweight and obesity, the OR values for the association with persistent overweight and obesity were 1.89 (95%CI: 1.20-2.99) and 1.82 (95%CI: 1.08-3.06) when ALAN exposure levels reached Q4 or Q5, respectively, but none of the OR values for the association between ALAN and overweight and obesity progression and overweight and obesity incidence were statistically significant. Fitting a natural cubic spline function showed a non-linear trend between ALAN exposure and persistent overweight and obesity. CONCLUSION There is a positive association between ALAN exposure and overweight and obesity in children and adolescents, and the promotion of overweight obesity in children and adolescents by ALAN tends to have a cumulative effect rather than an immediate effect. In the future, while focusing on the common risk factors for overweight and obesity in children and adolescents, there is a need to improve the overweight and obesity-causing nighttime light exposure environment.
Humans ; Adolescent ; Child ; Overweight/etiology* ; Pediatric Obesity/etiology* ; Light Pollution ; Risk Factors ; China/epidemiology*

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the mortality of injuries among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide the theoretical basis for the formulation of policies related to injury prevention. METHODS: The mortality data of children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China between 1990 and 2019 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, and the change in mortality between 1990 and 2019 was described. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to determine the age effect, period effect and cohort effect for road injuries, drowning and self-harm. RESULTS: Injury mortality of Chinese children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years decreased from 46.22 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 40.88-52.12] per 100 000 to 20.36 (95%UI: 17.58-23.38) per 100 000 between 1990 and 2019. Sub-group analysis revealed a pattern that was basically consistent with the overall trend. From 1990 to 2019, drowning declined from the first leading cause of injury death among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years in China to the second while road injuries became the one which caused the most death among them, and self-harm was the third leading cause of injury death. The top three causes of injury death in each subgroup were basically the same as the overall, but the order was different in each subgroup. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the death risk of road injuries, drowning, and self-harm all decreased with period and cohort. Aside from that, the death risk of road injuries showed a U-shape trend, which decreased at first but increased soon afterwards, with the increase of age, while the death risk of drowning decreased with age and the death risk of self-harm increased with age. CONCLUSION In China, the injuries mortality among children and adolescents aged 5 to 24 years has decreased over the last three decades. However, specific cause-related injury deaths, manifested differently in different sub-groups. Targeted policies and intervention should be proposed to reduce the mortality of children and adolescents in accordance with the characteristics of injuries death in different genders and age groups.
Adolescent ; Asians ; Cause of Death ; Child ; China/epidemiology* ; Drowning ; Female ; Global Burden of Disease ; Humans ; Infant ; Male ; Wounds and Injuries

Data mining is an important method to obtain the key information from a large amount of data, and it is widely applied in the research on the modernization of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM). The compatibility law of herbs is a key issue in the research of TCM prescriptions. This reflects the flexibility and effectiveness of TCM prescriptions, and it is also a crucial link to the development of TCM modernization. Therefore, it is the core purpose of the research on TCM prescriptions to find the compatibility law of herbs and clarify the scientific connotation. Data mining, as an effective method and an important approach, has formed a standardized system in the research of compatibility law of herbs, which can reveal the relationship between different Chinese herbs and summarize the internal rules in compatibility. Two hundred and twenty two effective papers were sorted out and categorized in this article. The results showed that data mining was mainly applied in finding the core Chinese herb pairs, summarizing the utility and attributes of TCM prescriptions, revealing the relationship between prescriptions, Chinese herbs and syndromes, finding the optimal dose of Chinese herbs, and producing the new prescriptions. The problems of data mining in research of herbs compatibility rules were summarized, and its development and trend in current researches were discussed in this article to provide useful references for the in-depth study of data mining in the compatibility law of Chinese herbs.
Data Mining ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal ; Humans ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Prescriptions ; Syndrome

Objective:To explore the factors affecting curative effect of motor imagery brain-computer interface (MI-BCI) training on upper limb paralysis for subacute stroke patients. Methods:From January, 2018 to July, 2019, 23 inpatients with post-stroke upper limb paralysis accepting MI-BCI training were reviewed. The gender, age, course of disease, aphasia, location and nature of lesion, history of Botulinum toxin, hemisphere injured and modified Ashworth Scale (MAS) score of affected fingers were recorded, and they were assessed with Fugl-Meyer Assessment-Upper Extremities (FMA-UE) before and four weeks after MI-BCI training. According to improvement of FMA-UE wrist and hand scores (≥ 2), the patients were divided into effective group (n = 11) and inefficacy group (n = 12). Results:The MAS scores before MI-BCI training (t = 2.677, P < 0.05) and history of botulinum toxin (Z = 0.000, P < 0.05) were more in the inefficacy group than in the efficacy group. FMA-UE scores (total and dimensions) after training were correlated to their baseline levels (r > 0.831, P < 0.01), FMA-UE total scores (Eta = 0.453, P < 0.05) and upper arms scores (Eta = 0.506, P < 0.05) were correlated to aphasia, FMA-UE scores of hands were correlated with MAS (r = -0.521, P < 0.05). Conclusion:Poor baseline motor function, spasticity and complication with aphasia were the factors unfavorable to MI-BCI training for subacute stroke patients with upper limb paralysis.