1.Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea
Soyoung KIM ; Yu Bin SEO ; Eunok JUNG
Epidemiology and Health 2020;42():e2020026-
OBJECTIVES:
Since the report of the first confirmed case in Daegu on February 18, 2020, local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea has continued. In this study, we aimed to identify the pattern of local transmission of COVID-19 using mathematical modeling and predict the epidemic size and the timing of the end of the spread.
METHODS:
We modeled the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea by applying a mathematical model of transmission that factors in behavioral changes. We used the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data of daily confirmed cases in the country to estimate the nationwide and Daegu/Gyeongbuk area-specific transmission rates as well as behavioral change parameters using a least-squares method.
RESULTS:
The number of transmissions per infected patient was estimated to be about 10 times higher in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area than the average of nationwide. Using these estimated parameters, our models predicts that about 13,800 cases will occur nationwide and 11,400 cases in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area until mid-June.
CONCLUSIONS
We mathematically demonstrate that the relatively high per-capita rate of transmission and the low rate of changes in behavior have caused a large-scale transmission of COVID-19 in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area in Korea. Since the outbreak is expected to continue until May, non-pharmaceutical interventions that can be sustained over the long term are required.
2.Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea
Soyoung KIM ; Yu Bin SEO ; Eunok JUNG
Epidemiology and Health 2020;42():e2020026-
OBJECTIVES:
Since the report of the first confirmed case in Daegu on February 18, 2020, local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea has continued. In this study, we aimed to identify the pattern of local transmission of COVID-19 using mathematical modeling and predict the epidemic size and the timing of the end of the spread.
METHODS:
We modeled the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea by applying a mathematical model of transmission that factors in behavioral changes. We used the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data of daily confirmed cases in the country to estimate the nationwide and Daegu/Gyeongbuk area-specific transmission rates as well as behavioral change parameters using a least-squares method.
RESULTS:
The number of transmissions per infected patient was estimated to be about 10 times higher in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area than the average of nationwide. Using these estimated parameters, our models predicts that about 13,800 cases will occur nationwide and 11,400 cases in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area until mid-June.
CONCLUSIONS
We mathematically demonstrate that the relatively high per-capita rate of transmission and the low rate of changes in behavior have caused a large-scale transmission of COVID-19 in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk area in Korea. Since the outbreak is expected to continue until May, non-pharmaceutical interventions that can be sustained over the long term are required.
3.The Effect of Prophylactic IOP-Lowering Medication after Intravitreal Dexamethasone Implantation.
Jung Bin HAN ; Kyung Hoon SEO ; Seung Young YU
Journal of the Korean Ophthalmological Society 2014;55(12):1828-1833
PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of prophylactic intraocular pressure (IOP)-lowering medication after intravitreal dexamethasone implantation. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 39 eyes undergoing intravitreal dexamethasone implantation for macular edema. Eyes were divided into two groups, those which had used prophylactic IOP-lowering medication and those which had not. IOP was measured preoperatively, at one week, and monthly until six months post-injection in each group. RESULTS: The mean pre-injection IOP for the group that had not used prophylactic IOP-lowering medication and the group that had was 13.95 +/- 3.32 mm Hg and 13.56 +/- 3.71 mm Hg, the mean post-injection IOP at two months was 15.81 +/- 3.75 mm Hg and 12.56 +/- 5.02 mm Hg, and that at six months was 12.90 +/- 2.95 mm Hg and 11.44 +/- 3.59 mm Hg, respectively. The difference between the two groups was statistically significant at one week, one month, two months, and three months (p = 0.001, 0.002, 0.011, 0.035, respectively). A greater than 22 mm Hg increase in IOP was seen in four eyes (19.05%) in the group that had not used IOP-lowering medication and in one eye (5.56%) in the group that had. A greater than 5 mm Hg increase in IOP from baseline was seen in eight eyes (38.10%) in the group that had not used IOP-lowering medication and in one eye (5.56%) in the group that had. CONCLUSIONS: After intravitreal dexamethasone implantation, prophylactic IOP-lowering medication will significantly prevent IOP increase and decrease the number of patients requiring additional treatment that could cause potential damage to the retina and optic nerve.
Dexamethasone*
;
Humans
;
Intraocular Pressure
;
Macular Edema
;
Optic Nerve
;
Retina
;
Retrospective Studies
4.The Effect of Prophylactic IOP-Lowering Medication after Intravitreal Dexamethasone Implantation.
Jung Bin HAN ; Kyung Hoon SEO ; Seung Young YU
Journal of the Korean Ophthalmological Society 2014;55(12):1828-1833
PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of prophylactic intraocular pressure (IOP)-lowering medication after intravitreal dexamethasone implantation. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 39 eyes undergoing intravitreal dexamethasone implantation for macular edema. Eyes were divided into two groups, those which had used prophylactic IOP-lowering medication and those which had not. IOP was measured preoperatively, at one week, and monthly until six months post-injection in each group. RESULTS: The mean pre-injection IOP for the group that had not used prophylactic IOP-lowering medication and the group that had was 13.95 +/- 3.32 mm Hg and 13.56 +/- 3.71 mm Hg, the mean post-injection IOP at two months was 15.81 +/- 3.75 mm Hg and 12.56 +/- 5.02 mm Hg, and that at six months was 12.90 +/- 2.95 mm Hg and 11.44 +/- 3.59 mm Hg, respectively. The difference between the two groups was statistically significant at one week, one month, two months, and three months (p = 0.001, 0.002, 0.011, 0.035, respectively). A greater than 22 mm Hg increase in IOP was seen in four eyes (19.05%) in the group that had not used IOP-lowering medication and in one eye (5.56%) in the group that had. A greater than 5 mm Hg increase in IOP from baseline was seen in eight eyes (38.10%) in the group that had not used IOP-lowering medication and in one eye (5.56%) in the group that had. CONCLUSIONS: After intravitreal dexamethasone implantation, prophylactic IOP-lowering medication will significantly prevent IOP increase and decrease the number of patients requiring additional treatment that could cause potential damage to the retina and optic nerve.
Dexamethasone*
;
Humans
;
Intraocular Pressure
;
Macular Edema
;
Optic Nerve
;
Retina
;
Retrospective Studies
5.Antiviral Treatment Guidelines for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.
Yong Pil CHONG ; Joon Young SONG ; Yu Bin SEO ; Jae Phil CHOI ; Hyoung Shik SHIN
Infection and Chemotherapy 2015;47(3):212-222
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is an acute infectious disease of the respiratory system caused by the new betacoronavirus (MERS coronavirus, MERS-CoV), which shows high mortality rates. The typical symptoms of MERS are fever, cough, and shortness of breath, and it is often accompanied by pneumonia. The MERS-CoV was introduced to Republic of Korea in May 2015 by a patient returning from Saudi Arabia. The disease spread mostly through hospital infections, and by the time the epidemic ended in August, the total number of confirmed diagnoses was 186, among which 36 patients died. Reflecting the latest evidence for antiviral drugs in the treatment of MERS-CoV infection and the experiences of treating MERS patients in Republic of Korea, these guidelines focus on antiviral drugs to achieve effective treatment of MERS-CoV infections.
Antiviral Agents
;
Communicable Diseases
;
Coronavirus
;
Cough
;
Cross Infection
;
Diagnosis
;
Dyspnea
;
Fever
;
Humans
;
Middle East*
;
Mortality
;
Pneumonia
;
Republic of Korea
;
Respiratory System
;
Saudi Arabia
6.Antimicrobial Susceptibilities of Enterobacteriaceae in Community-Acquired Urinary Tract Infections during a 5-year Period: A Single Hospital Study in Korea.
Jin Ju PARK ; Yu Bin SEO ; Jacob LEE
Infection and Chemotherapy 2017;49(3):184-193
BACKGROUND: Through investigating antimicrobial susceptibility patterns of Enterobacteriaceae in community-acquired urinary tract infection (CA-UTI), we provide basic evidence for the use of empirical antibiotics in CA-UTI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients over the age of 19 years who visited a hospital in Seoul between January 2012 and December 2016 for a CA-UTI. Urine cultures were used to identify causative organisms. We investigated extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) production and the antimicrobial susceptibility of Enterobactereiaceae. We evaluated recommended empirical antibiotics numerically by calculating the syndrome-specific likelihood of inadequate therapy (LIT) for the last 2 years (interpretation of the LIT A value: 1 out of A people is likely to receive inadequate empirical antibiotics). RESULTS: Urine cultures were performed in 1,605 out of 2,208 patients who were diagnosed with CA-UTI, and causative pathogens were identified in 1,134 (70.7%) cases. There were 998 (88.0%) cases of Enterobacteriaceae and Escherichia coli was the most common pathogen, accounting for 80.3% of cases (911 cases). The overall resistance rates to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, fluoroquinolones, and cefotaxime were 31.7%, 23.2%, and 13.5%, respectively. There were 128 (10.8%) cases of ESBL-producing Entererobacteriaceae with an increasing but non-significant trend (P = 0.255). The LIT for CA-UTI in the past two years was highest for ertapenem and imipenem. Fluoroquinolones ranked 11th, with a LIT of 8.2, and cefotaxime ranked higher, at 10.5. In ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae, except for carbapenems, amikacin and piperacillin-tazobactam showed the highest susceptibility rates at 99.2% and 94.3%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Empiric treatment with fluoroquinolones in CA-UTI should be carefully considered, given the high resistance rate. The proportion of ESBL-producing Entererobacteriaceae in CA-UTI has increased to a high level in Korea. Amikacin and piperacillin-tazobactam could be considered for empiric treatment in patients at risk for ESBL-producing Entererobacteriaceae when considering alternatives to carbapenems.
Amikacin
;
Anti-Bacterial Agents
;
Carbapenems
;
Cefotaxime
;
Community-Acquired Infections
;
Enterobacteriaceae*
;
Escherichia coli
;
Fluoroquinolones
;
Humans
;
Imipenem
;
Korea*
;
Medical Records
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Seoul
;
Trimethoprim, Sulfamethoxazole Drug Combination
;
Urinary Tract Infections*
;
Urinary Tract*
7.Fit Test for N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators and KF94 Masks for Healthcare Workers: a Prospective Single-center Simulation Study
Jin Ju PARK ; Yu Bin SEO ; Jacob LEE
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2021;36(21):e140-
Background:
For protection against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the Korean government recommended the KF94 mask or that a mask at the same level as the KF94 should be worn when contacting a patient with COVID-19. Furthermore, adequately fitted N95 respirators and KF94 masks are essential. We investigated the fit tests to determine whether healthcare workers had adequate protection with N95 respirators and KF94 masks.
Methods:
In this prospective single-center simulation study, five N95 respirators (two made in the USA by 3M and three made in Korea) and six KF94 masks, the Korean standard medical masks, were tested. The fit factor (FF) and leakage rate were evaluated using a two-fit test device. Adequate protection (defined as FF ≥ 100 or leakage rate ≤ 5) rates were compared between N95 respirators and KF94 masks, and between made in Korea and the 3M N95 respirators. For KF94 masks, adequate protection rates were compared before and after ear strap fixation.
Results:
Overall, 30 participants were enrolled, and 330 fit tests were performed for FF and leakage rate. Adequate protection rates of all tested N95 respirators and KF94 masks were 22.7% (n = 75) by FF and 20.6% (n = 68) by leakage rate. N95 respirators showed a significantly higher adequate protection rate than KF94 masks for FF (48.7% vs. 1.1%, P < 0.001) and leakage rate (42.0% vs. 2.8%, P < 0.001). Adequate protection rate of 3M-made N95 respirators was significantly higher than that of those made in Korea (83.3% vs. 25.6% in FF, P < 0.001; 73.3% vs. 21.1% in leakage rate, P < 0.001). In KF94 masks, after fixation of ear strap with a hook, adequate protection rate improved significantly (1.1% vs. 12.8% in FF, P< 0.001; 2.8% vs. 11.1%, P < 0.001).
Conclusion
Although adequate protection rate of N95 respirators was higher than that of KF94 masks, N95 respirator protection rate was not optimum. Thus, it is necessary to minimize exposure to risk by selecting an appropriate mask or respirator that adequately fits each person, and by wearing respirators or masks appropriately, before contacting the patients. With their superior protection rate, wearing N95 respirators is recommended instead of KF94 masks, especially when performing aerosol-generating procedures.
8.Risk factors for the development of asthma symptoms in children with allergic rhinitis
Yu-Mi PARK ; So-Yeon LEE ; Ju-Hee SEO ; Hyo-Bin KIM ; Soo-Jong HONG ; Ji-Won KWON
Allergy, Asthma & Respiratory Disease 2020;8(4):191-198
Purpose:
Both allergic rhinitis and asthma are considered one airway disease, which interacts with each other in disease onset and symptom worsening. We evaluated factors developing new or persistent asthma symptoms in elementary school children with allergic rhinitis.
Methods:
We selected 343 children aged 6 to 7 years who had rhinitis symptoms within 12 months and allergic sensitization on skin prick tests among 2,491 elementary school children. The questionnaires on symptoms, medical history and environments, blood eosinophils, serum total IgE, pulmonary function test, and bronchial provocation tests were obtained. Using multiple regression analysis, we evaluated factors for later asthma symptoms during a follow-up period of 4 years.
Results:
The independent risk factors for later asthma symptoms among children with allergic rhinitis were higher body mass index (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06–1.56; P= 0.012), a parental diagnosis of asthma (aOR, 6.19; 95% CI, 1.59–24.06; P= 0.008), residence in the rural area (aOR, 5.37; 95% CI, 1.34–21.42; P= 0.017), and a history of bronchiolitis in the first 2 years (aOR, 5.82; 95% CI, 1.42–23.80; P= 0.014). However, pulmonary functions, the levels of bronchial hyper-responsiveness, and the patterns of sensitization showed not significant factors. Children whose allergic rhinitis was treated in the follow-up period were less likely to have asthma symptoms later (aOR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.10–0.93; P= 0.036).
Conclusion
In the school-aged children with allergic rhinitis, body mass index and asthma-related risk factors are crucial for developing asthma symptoms. The appropriate treatment of rhinitis may decrease asthma symptoms.
9.The effect of photodynamic therapy using Radachlorin on biofilm-forming multidrug-resistant bacteria
Choong-Won SEO ; Young-Kwon KIM ; Jeong-Lib AN ; Jong-Sook KIM ; Pil-Seung KWON ; Young-Bin YU
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives 2022;13(4):290-297
Objectives:
This study aimed to test the effect of photodynamic therapy (PDT) on the inhibition and removal of biofilms containing multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii.
Methods:
Using multidrug-resistant A. baumannii strains, an antibiotic susceptibility test was performed using the Gram-negative identification card of the Vitek 2 system (bioMérieux Inc., France), as well as an analysis of resistance genes, the effects of treatment with a light-emitting diode (LED) array using Radachlorin (RADA-PHARMA Co., Ltd., Russia), and transmission and scanning electron microscopy to confirm the biofilm-inhibitory effect of PDT.
Results:
The antibiotic susceptibility test revealed multiple resistance to the antibiotics imipenem and meropenem in the carbapenem class. A class-D–type β-lactamase was found, and OXA-23 and OXA-51 were found in 100% of 15 A. baumannii strains. After PDT using Radachlorin, morphological observations revealed an abnormal structure due to the loss of the cell membrane and extensive morphological changes, including low intracellular visibility and small vacuoles attached to the cell membrane.
Conclusion
PDT involving a combination of LED and Radachlorin significantly eliminated the biofilm of multidrug-resistant A. baumannii. Observations made using electron microscopy showed that PDT combining LED and Radachlorin was effective. Additional studies on the effective elimination of biofilms containing multidrug-resistant bacteria are necessary, and we hope that a treatment method superior to sterilization with antibiotics will be developed in the future.
10.Fit Test for N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators and KF94 Masks for Healthcare Workers: a Prospective Single-center Simulation Study
Jin Ju PARK ; Yu Bin SEO ; Jacob LEE
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2021;36(21):e140-
Background:
For protection against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the Korean government recommended the KF94 mask or that a mask at the same level as the KF94 should be worn when contacting a patient with COVID-19. Furthermore, adequately fitted N95 respirators and KF94 masks are essential. We investigated the fit tests to determine whether healthcare workers had adequate protection with N95 respirators and KF94 masks.
Methods:
In this prospective single-center simulation study, five N95 respirators (two made in the USA by 3M and three made in Korea) and six KF94 masks, the Korean standard medical masks, were tested. The fit factor (FF) and leakage rate were evaluated using a two-fit test device. Adequate protection (defined as FF ≥ 100 or leakage rate ≤ 5) rates were compared between N95 respirators and KF94 masks, and between made in Korea and the 3M N95 respirators. For KF94 masks, adequate protection rates were compared before and after ear strap fixation.
Results:
Overall, 30 participants were enrolled, and 330 fit tests were performed for FF and leakage rate. Adequate protection rates of all tested N95 respirators and KF94 masks were 22.7% (n = 75) by FF and 20.6% (n = 68) by leakage rate. N95 respirators showed a significantly higher adequate protection rate than KF94 masks for FF (48.7% vs. 1.1%, P < 0.001) and leakage rate (42.0% vs. 2.8%, P < 0.001). Adequate protection rate of 3M-made N95 respirators was significantly higher than that of those made in Korea (83.3% vs. 25.6% in FF, P < 0.001; 73.3% vs. 21.1% in leakage rate, P < 0.001). In KF94 masks, after fixation of ear strap with a hook, adequate protection rate improved significantly (1.1% vs. 12.8% in FF, P< 0.001; 2.8% vs. 11.1%, P < 0.001).
Conclusion
Although adequate protection rate of N95 respirators was higher than that of KF94 masks, N95 respirator protection rate was not optimum. Thus, it is necessary to minimize exposure to risk by selecting an appropriate mask or respirator that adequately fits each person, and by wearing respirators or masks appropriately, before contacting the patients. With their superior protection rate, wearing N95 respirators is recommended instead of KF94 masks, especially when performing aerosol-generating procedures.