Objective To explore the influencing factors of massive hemorrhage during cesarean section of pernicious placenta previa,and establish a risk prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 340 pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa who underwent cesarean section for termination of pregnancy in this hospital from January 2017 to December 2021 were collected.They were divided into the common hemorrhage group (the amount of intraoperative blood loss<2000 mL,n=200) and massive hemorrhage group (the a-mount of intraoperative blood loss ≥2000 mL,n=140).The clinical characteristics of pregnant women,clini-cal data of this pregnancy,situation of the fetus,and imaging information were compared between the two groups.Combining the variables with a P value<0.05 in the univariate analysis and the possible influencing factors of massive hemorrhage during cesarean section in pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa in clinical practice,the binary multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted,and a risk prediction model was established.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the fitting effect and discrimination of the model.Results The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the number of abortions,placental thickness,combining with placental implantation,number of previous cesarean sections and fetal gender were the independent influencing factors for massive hemorrhage (≥2000 mL) during cesarean section in pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa (P<0.05).The prediction model formula:P=Log (Y/1-Y),Y=0.396+1.371×(number of abor-tions=three times)+1.248×(number of abortions ≥ four times)-0.351×(placental thickness)+0.624× (combining with placental implantation)+0.974×(two or more previous cesarean sections)+0.638 × (female=0,male=1).The results of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the prediction mod-el had good calibration ability (x2=77.825,P<0.001).The area under the ROC curve was 0.768 (95％CI:0.717-0.820),the specificity was 83.0％,the positive predictive value was 70.2％,and the negative predic-tive value was 73.5％.Conclusion The risk prediction model of massive hemorrhage during cesarean section in pregnant women with pernicious placenta previa has good performance.It is helpful to identify high-risk pregnant women in the prenatal evaluation,and provide a basis for formulating the blood transfusion plan in clinic,and prevention and treatment of adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Objective To use color Doppler ultrasound to measure the hemodynamic indexes,and to es-tablish the diagnostic prediction model of inflammatory fetal distress.Methods A total of 213 pregnant women admitted to the obstetrics department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Military Medical U-niversity were collected as the research subjects and divided into the control group and case group according to whether or not fetal distress occurred,including 93 cases in the control group and 120 cases in the case group.The predictive value of PI,RI,S/D values of middle cerebral artery,umbilical artery and uterine artery for pre-dicting fetal distress was analyzed The diagnostic model was constructed by logistic regression analysis.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and clinical decision curve were adopted to an-alyze and evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of the model for adverse perinatal outcome and the clinical benefit of the patients.Results The univariate analysis results showed that MCA-PI,MCA-RI,MCA,S/D and CPR in the case group were lower than those in the control group,while UA-RI,UA,S/D and UtA-RI were higher than those in the control group.The multivariate regression analysis further showed that MCA-PI,MCA-RI and CPR were the independent protective factors for predicting fetal distress,while UA-R1 and UA-S/D served as the independent risk factors affecting the fetal outcome.Based on five independent influencing fac-tors,the risk prediction model was constructed,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.880(95％CI:0.834-0.925).The sensitivity,specificity and accuracy were 0.93,0.70 and 0.83 respec-tively,and the goodness of fit was good.Conclusion The hemodynamic indexes measured by color Doppler ul-trasound have good predictive value for the diagnosis of fetal distress.The risk prediction model established by the combined indexes has a certain reference value for the intervention in advance of pregnant women with fe-tal distress occurence.