Adult ; Aged ; Antimalarials ; therapeutic use ; Female ; Humans ; Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome ; drug therapy ; JC Virus ; immunology ; Leukoencephalopathy, Progressive Multifocal ; drug therapy ; Male ; Mefloquine ; therapeutic use ; Middle Aged ; Treatment Outcome

Background/Aims: Due to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040. Methods: Prevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality. Results: The forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 prevalence of 38.9%. The estimated average yearly increase since 2020 was 2.16%. For those aged <50 years and ≥50 years, the 2040 prevalence were not significantly different (56.7% vs. 61.5%, P=0.52). There was a significant difference in 2040 prevalence by sex (males: 60% vs. 50%) but the trend was steeper for females (annual percentage change: 2.5% vs. 1.5%, P=0.025). There was no difference in trends overtime by region (P=0.48). The increase rate was significantly higher in those without metabolic syndrome (3.8% vs. 0.84%, P=0.003) and smokers (1.4% vs. 1.1%, P=0.011). There was no difference by clinical/community setting (P=0.491) or study quality (P=0.85). Conclusion By 2040, over half the adult population is forecasted to have NAFLD. The largest increases are expected to occur in women, smokers, and those without metabolic syndrome. Intensified efforts are needed to raise awareness of NAFLD and to determine long-term solutions addressing the driving factors of the disease.

Background/Aims: Patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) require extensive and personalized care to improve outcomes. ChatGPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer), a large language model, holds the potential to provide professional yet patient-friendly support. We aimed to examine the accuracy and reproducibility of ChatGPT in answering questions regarding knowledge, management, and emotional support for cirrhosis and HCC. Methods: ChatGPT’s responses to 164 questions were independently graded by two transplant hepatologists and resolved by a third reviewer. The performance of ChatGPT was also assessed using two published questionnaires and 26 questions formulated from the quality measures of cirrhosis management. Finally, its emotional support capacity was tested. Results: We showed that ChatGPT regurgitated extensive knowledge of cirrhosis (79.1% correct) and HCC (74.0% correct), but only small proportions (47.3% in cirrhosis, 41.1% in HCC) were labeled as comprehensive. The performance was better in basic knowledge, lifestyle, and treatment than in the domains of diagnosis and preventive medicine. For the quality measures, the model answered 76.9% of questions correctly but failed to specify decision-making cut-offs and treatment durations. ChatGPT lacked knowledge of regional guidelines variations, such as HCC screening criteria. However, it provided practical and multifaceted advice to patients and caregivers regarding the next steps and adjusting to a new diagnosis. Conclusions We analyzed the areas of robustness and limitations of ChatGPT’s responses on the management of cirrhosis and HCC and relevant emotional support. ChatGPT may have a role as an adjunct informational tool for patients and physicians to improve outcomes.