Objective To construct an optimal prediction model of chickenpox in Urumqi, and to provide reference for formulating the prevention and control strategies of chickenpox. Methods The multivariate autoregressive moving average model (ARIMAX) and random forest model (RF) were established based on the monthly incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi from 2014 to 2018, and the monthly incidence of chickenpox in 2019 was used to test the models and evaluate their prediction effect. The prediction performance of the two models was compared, and the best model was selected to predict the incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi. Results The incidence of chickenpox in Urumqi showed a regular bimodal distribution with obvious seasonality, and it showed a slow upward trend from July 2014 to December 2019. The fitting model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,1)₁₂, the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of ARIMAX model training set were 1.29 and 0.95, respectively, and the RMSE and MAE of the test set were 1.88 and 1.44, respectively. The training set RMSE and MAE of RF model were 1.56 and 1.56, respectively, and the test set RMSE and MAE were 4.83 and 3.96, respectively. Conclusion The performance of ARIMAX model is better than that of RF model, which can better predict the incidence trend of chickenpox in Urumqi. It is necessary to optimize the prediction model according to the actual situation and provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of chickenpox.

Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disease characterized by chronic hyperglycemia caused by absolute or relative insufficiency of insulin secretion. As the disease progresses， patients begin to suffer from diabetic nephropathy， diabetic cardiomyopathy， non-alcoholic fatty liver disease or other complications， which increase the burden on the patients. Moreover， the number of patients is increasing， which brings a heavy burden to the society. Ferroptosis is a new type of programmed cell death which has attracted wide attention in recent years. It refers to the cell death caused by the excessive accumulation of lipid peroxide under the overload of iron ions. Studies have discovered that ferroptosis exists in diabetes mellitus and its complications. Inhibiting ferroptosis can greatly slow down the occurrence and progression of diabetes mellitus and its complications. Chinese medicine， the unique medical treasure in China， acts in a multi-pathway， multi-target manner and is praised for the cheap price， low toxicity， and mild side effects. It has been widely used in the treatment of diabetes mellitus and its complications and has demonstrated definite therapeutic effects， bringing the good news for the majority of patients. The regulation of ferroptosis by Chinese medicine may be a new direction for the treatment of diabetes mellitus and its complications in the future. This paper briefly describes the mechanism of ferroptosis， explores the relationship of ferroptosis with diabetes mellitus and its complications， summarizes the research status of Chinese medicine interventions， and puts forward suggestions， aiming to provide a reference for further research on the treatment of diabetes mellitus and its complications with Chinese medicine.

Objective This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Urumqi City, Xinjiang from 2014 to 2022, in order to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD in Urumqi City. Methods We collected and analyzed the reported HFMD cases in Urumqi City from the National Information System for Infectious Diseases Reporting during the period of 2014-2022. Results A total of 17 138 cases of HFMD were reported in Urumqi City from 2014 to 2022, with an average annual incidence rate of 52.66/100 000. The overall trend showed a decrease, and the peak months were from May to July. The top three districts with the highest incidence rates were High-tech Zone, Shayibake District, and Tianshan District. The male-to-female ratio was 1.48:1，and there were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates among gender (χ²=2.28,P>0.05). The majority of cases (90.23%) were children aged 0-6 years, primarily scattered children, and other enterovirus strains became dominant after 2017. Conclusion HFMD has shown a decreasing trend in Urumqi City, Xinjiang in recent years. The disease primarily affects pre-school children, and other enterovirus strains have become the dominant strains in the area. It is recommended to develop scientifically effective prevention and control measures based on the local situation to control the spread of HFMD.

Background The effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations in Urumqi have not been fully understood. Objective To investigate the effects of meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity) and common air pollutants [fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO)] on the daily hospitalization volume of IHD, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted prevention and management strategies. Methods Basic information of 90622 IHD hospitalized patients in Urumqi City was collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022, and daily air pollutant concentration data and meteorological data were collected during the same period. The meteorological data included daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily mean relative humidity, and the common air pollutants included PM_2.5, PM₁₀, daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O₃ (O₃_8 h), SO₂, NO₂, and CO. Descriptive statistical analyses (mean, standard deviation, and quartiles) were performed on the collected data. A distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM) based on time-stratified case-crossover design was established to estimate the lagged effects (RR) as well as the cumulative lagged effects (RR_cum) of daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and different air pollutants on the number of IHD admissions, stratified by gender and age (<60 and ≥60 years). Subsequently, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the effects of cold waves (≤ P₅ of the daily minimum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) versus heat waves (≥ P₉₅ of the daily maximum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) on IHD hospitalizations and the potential interactions between temperature and the more influential air pollutants [particulate matter (PM) and O₃_8 h] on IHD hospitalizations. Results The maximum number of IHD hospitalizations in a single day in Urumqi from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022 was 100, and the average daily number of hospitalized IHD patients was 27. Daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutants had different nonlinear relationships and hysteresis with IHD hospitalizations. Extremely low temperatures (<P₁: −18 °C) showed the greatest risk to admission for the total IHD population at a cumulative lag of 31 d (lag0-31) (RR_cum=2.092, 95%CI: 1.261,3.471). Female [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 3.416 (2.296,5.082)] and people ≥60 years old [lag0-31, RR_cum and 95%CI: 2.356 (1.681,3.303)] were more sensitive to extremely low temperatures. The risk of IHD hospitalization was greatest on lag20 for cold waves (RR=1.242, 95%CI: 1.053, 1.465), and no lagged effect of heat waves on the number of IHD hospitalizations was found. There was a positive interaction (SI >1, P<0.001) between temperature, PM, and O₃_8 h on the risk of IHD hospitalization, especially for low temperature-high PM and O₃_8 h. Conclusion Both low temperature and high pollutant concentrations associate with an increase in IHD hospitalizations with lagged effects in Urumqi from 2014 to 2022, while cold waves associate with a higher risk of IHD admissions. Females and people aged 60 years and older are at high risk.

Objective: To analyze the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Xinjiang, and to provide reference for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods: The reported incidence numbers of tuberculosis and population data from various counties, cities(prefectures), and districts in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 were collected. Based on spatial-temporal scan statistics, standard deviational ellipse analysis, and centroid migration models, the clustering and migration trends of tuberculosis incidence were evaluated. Utilizing Kriging interpolation techniques, an interpolation analysis of the 2022 incidence rate was conducted on an annual scale, with the reported incidence rate in 2018 serving as a temporal control, to identify hotspots of the spatio-temporal distribution. ArcGIS software was employed to visualize the continuous spatial trends of incidence rate changes. Results: The annual reported incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2022 varied year by year, with fluctuations and increases prior to 2018, peaking in 2018, and then declining annually thereafter. The spatial distribution of the incidence rate exhibited a trend of initial clustering followed by diffusion, with the centroid of incidence shifting towards the northeast, yet the epicenter of the epidemic remained in Aksu Prefecture. The results of spatiotemporal scan statistics analysis revealed that the three-level aggregated areas of the epidemic encompassed a total of 41 prefectures, counties, and cities, with the tuberculosis incidence risk in the primary and secondary aggregated areas being significantly higher than that in other regions(P<0.01). The Kriging interpolation prediction map suggested that the four prefectures in southern Xinjiang continued to be high-risk regions for tuberculosis(incidence rate>300/100 000). The overall incidence rate in the northern region was relatively low, with the lowest rate observed in Urumqi, radiating outwards. Conclusion The incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang shows an upward trend before 2018, followed by a year-on-year decrease. The centroid of the incidence rate shifts towards the northeast. From 2010 to 2022, the tuberculosis epidemic in Xinjiang exhibits a notable spatiotemporal clustering, particularly prominent in the southwestern region, where the four prefectures constitute high-risk areas for tuberculosis. The prevention and control efforts of tuberculosis in Xinjiang should prioritize the regions with high tuberculosis incidence, intensifying prevention and control measures as well as policy support.

Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Objective:To identify the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in pediatric patients undergoing malignant tumor resection.Methods:Medical records of pediatric patients who underwent open abdominal malignant tumor resection at Children′s Hospital affiliated to Zhejiang University School of Medicine from August 2019 to July 2023, with length of hospital stay ≥48 h, were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into PPC group and non-PPC group based on the occurrence of PPCs within 7 days postoperatively. Variables with P<0.05 in the univariate analysis were included in the binary logistic regression analysis to identify the risk factors for PPCs. Results:A total of 605 pediatric patients who underwent abdominal malignant tumor resection were finally included, among which 391 children developed PPCs, with an incidence of 64.6%. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that body weight ( P=0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification ( P<0.001), preoperative hypoalbuminemia ( P=0.013), preoperative chemotherapy ( P=0.003), tumor compression/encasement of major abdominal vessels ( P=0.002), anesthesia duration ( P<0.001), intraoperative fluid intake (ml·kg -1·h -1, P<0.001), intraoperative use of hypotensive agents ( P=0.047), and concurrent resection of mediastinal tumors via abdominal approach ( P<0.001) were risk factors for PPCs in children undergoing malignant tumor resection. Age ( P<0.001) was identified as a protective factor for PPCs. Conclusions:Body weight, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification, preoperative chemotherapy, preoperative hypoalbuminemia, tumor compression/encasement of major abdominal vessels, anesthesia duration, intraoperative fluid intake, intraoperative use of hypotensive agents, and concurrent resection of mediastinal tumors via abdominal approach are risk factors for PPCs in pediatric patients undergoing open abdominal malignant tumor resection, whereas age is a protective factor for PPCs.

Diabetic nephropathy （DN）， as one of the common chronic microvascular complications of diabetes， has become the main cause of renal failure in end-stage renal disease in China， increasing the risks of renal dialysis and kidney transplantation in diabetes patients. It is the leading cause of death in people with diabetes. The latest research on DN has focused on the gene level. microRNAs （miRNAs） are a family of endogenous accessible short-chain non-coding RNA molecules. By acting on a particular target， they activate or inhibit its mediated signaling pathways and related molecules， playing an important role in the occurrence and development of DN. They have become microeconomic factors for the prevention and treatment of DN. Traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） has a long history in the diagnosis and treatment of DN and has unique advantages such as significant curative effect and few side effects. A large number of studies have proved that TCM can target miRNA to affect multiple signaling pathways， participate in the regulation of inflammatory response， pyroptosis， mesenchymal transdifferentiation， and other pathological changes， and delay the further development of DN. Therefore， this study discusses the biogenesis mechanism of miRNA and its action mechanism in disease-related signaling pathways based on TCM diagnosis and treatment approaches from the perspective of miRNA， and summarizes the effect of TCM targeting miRNA on the disease-related signaling pathways and on DN. Thus， this study is expected to provide a theoretical reference for exploring the progress of TCM intervention in DN from the perspective of genes.

Objective To sort out the scientific research achievements in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China from 2001 to 2022, and analyze the research hotspots and trends in the direction of early warning of infectious diseases in China in recent 20 years, so as to provide reference for relevant policies and exploration directions. Methods Relevant literature retrieved from CNKI Chinese database was used as the data source, and Excel 2019 and Citespace 6.1.R2 software were used for visual analysis of research hotspots and frontier literature. Results A total of 1276 papers meeting requirements were obtained, and most of the research groups were relatively small and had little cooperation with others. The types of research institutions were relatively single, and most of them were domestic universities. ^“Infectious diseases^”, ^“early warning^” and ^“prediction^” were the most frequently used keywords. Research on big data and COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control is the current research frontier. Conclusion There is little cooperation among authors and between institutions in the field of early warning of infectious diseases in China. Using big data to early warning of infectious diseases and improving the ability of early warning of COVID-19 are the main research directions and trends at present.

ObjectiveTo observe the effect of Hedysari Radix polysaccharide （HRP） on the Janus kinase 2 （JAK2）/signal transducer and activator of transcription protein 3 （STAT3） signaling pathway in diabetic nephropathy db/db mice. MethodFifty db/db mice were randomly divided into model group， irbesartan group （irbesartan suspension， 22.75 mg·kg^-1）， and high-， medium-， and low-dose HRP groups （HRP suspension， 200， 100， 50 mg·kg^-1） according to the body weight， with 10 mice in each group. Another 10 C57BL/6 mice were assigned to the normal group. The mice were treated with corresponding drugs by gavage， while those in the normal group and the model group received distilled water at 5 mL·kg^-1. The mice in the six groups were administered once a day by gavage for 12 consecutive weeks. The uric acid （UA）， triglycerides （TG）， and total cholesterol （TC） were detected. Periodic acid-Schiff （PAS） staining and Masson staining were used to observe the pathological changes in kidney tissues. Western blot and Real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction （Real-time PCR） were used to detect the protein and mRNA expression levels of JAK2， STAT3， suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 （SOCS3）， and tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α） in the kidney. ResultAfter 12 weeks of treatment， compared with the normal group， the model group showed significant pathological ultrastructural changes in kidney tissues and increased UA， TG， and TC levels （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the high- and medium-dose HRP groups and the irbesartan group showed improvement in pathological ultrastructure of kidney tissues and reduced UA， TG， and TC levels （P<0.05， P<0.01）. Compared with the normal group， the model group showed a decrease in SOCS3 protein and mRNA expression levels and an increase in JAK2， STAT3， and TNF-α protein and mRNA expression levels （P<0.01）. Compared with the model group， the high- and medium-dose HRP groups and the irbesartan group showed an increase in SOCS3 protein and mRNA expression levels and a decrease in JAK2， STAT3， and TNF-α protein and mRNA expression levels （P<0.05， P<0.01）. ConclusionHRP can alleviate renal damage in diabetic nephropathy to a certain extent， and its mechanism may be related to the inhibition of the activation of the JAK2/STAT3 signaling pathway.