1.Ultrasound radiomics combined with machine learning for early diagnosis of seronegative hashimoto’s thyroiditis
Wenjun WU ; Chang LIU ; Shengsheng YAO ; Daming LIU ; Yuan LUO ; Yihan SUN ; Ting RUAN ; Mengyou LIU ; Li SHI ; Mingming XIAO ; Qi ZHANG ; Zhengshuai LIU ; Xingai JU ; Jiahao WANG ; Xiang FEI ; Li LU ; Yang GAO ; Ying ZHANG ; Liying GONG ; Xuanyu CHEN ; Wanli ZHENG ; Xiali NIU ; Xiao YANG ; Huimei CAO ; Shijie CHANG ; Zuoxin MA ; Jianchun CUI
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2025;19(3):313-319
Objective:To evaluate the value of ultrasound radiomics combined with machine learning for early diagnosis of seronegative Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (SN-HT) .Methods:This retrospective study included 164 patients from Liaoning Provincial People’s Hospital , Lixin County People’s Hospital, Linghai Dalinghe Hospital, Fengcheng Phoenix Hospital, who underwent thyroidectomy for solitary nodules with normal thyroid function between Nov. 2016 and Jan. 2024. Postoperative pathology confirmed Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT) in some cases, who were further categorized into antibody-positive and antibody-negative groups based on serum antibody status. Patients without Hashimoto’s thyroiditis served as the control group. A total of 298 ultrasound images were analyzed. Radiomics features were extracted from hypoechoic non-nodular areas within 0.5 cm surrounding the tumor. Two senior pathologists and two senior ultrasound physicians independently assessed lymphocytic infiltration, eosinophilic changes of follicular epithelium, and the proportion of hypoechoic areas in pathology and ultrasound images, respectively. A machine learning model, CCH-NET, was developed using linear regression and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) techniques. The dataset was divided into a training set (80%) and a validation set (20%) to compare the diagnostic accuracy of CCH-NET with that of senior ultrasound physicians. Results:In internal validation, CCH-NET achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 88.89% for both antibody-positive and antibody-negative groups, significantly higher than the 66.67% accuracy of senior ultrasound physicians ( P<0.01). In external validation, CCH-NET achieved 75.00% and 66.67% accuracy for the two groups, compared to 50.00% by senior ultrasound physicians. For the control group, both methods achieved 93.33% accuracy. The AUC of CCH-NET was 0.848, outperforming senior ultrasound physicians (0.681) ,demonstrating superior diagnostic performance. Conclusion:The radiomics-based CCH-NET model, using non-nodular hypoechoic areas as a specific indicator, can accurately identify early SN-HT in euthyroid patients. It significantly outperforms senior ultrasound physicians, improving diagnostic accuracy and reducing missed diagnoses.
2.Clinical characteristics of Klebsiella pneumoniae in adult intensive care unit:a nationwide multi-center cohort study in China
Shu-Guang YANG ; Yao SUN ; Ting WANG ; Hua ZHANG ; Wei SUN ; You-Zhong AN ; Hui-Ying ZHAO
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(3):292-300
Objective To analyze the epidemiological distribution,microbiological characteristics,drug-resistance status,and risk factors for mortality in adult intensive care unit(ICU)patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae infection.Methods This multi-center prospective cohort study included ICU patients with suspected infection from 67 hospitals across 16 Chinese provinces/municipalities between July 1,2021 and December 31,2022.Clinical data and microbiological results were collected,and patients were divided into survival and non-survival groups according to their survival status and drug-resistance situation.Risk factors for mortality and drug resistance in ICU patients with Klebsiella pneumonia infection were determined through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.Results A total of 2964 ICU-infected patients were enrolled,with 12 175 microbial specimens submitted for testing.Among these,487 specimens tested positive for Klebsiella pneumoniae.Ultimately,314 patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae infection were identified,primarily from lung infections,with a drug-resistance rate of 78.3%.The in-hospital mortality rate of ICU patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae was 19.8%.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that older age(P=0.027),high drug-resistance rate(P=0.028),and low clinical-effectiveness rate(P<0.001)were independent risk factors for mortality in ICU patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae.Drug-resistance analysis showed that,compared with non-resistant cases,ICU patients with drug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae infection had lower pathogen-clearance rates(P=0.003),clinical-effectiveness rates(P=0.004),and antibiotic-effectiveness rates(P<0.010),and higher mortality rates(P=0.006).Patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae abdominal infection(P=0.003)and urinary tract infection(P=0.007)had higher drug-resistance incidences.There were no statistically significant differences in clinical-effectiveness rate,Klebsiella pneumoniae clearance,drug-resistance incidence,mortality rate,or hospital-stay length between patients with lung infection and those with non-lung infection of Klebsiella pneumoniae(P>0.05).Compared with patients with non-bloodstream infection,patients with bloodstream infection of Klebsiella pneumoniae had lower clinical-effectiveness rates(P=0.027)and higher mortality rates(P=0.021).Conclusions Older age,high drug-resistance rate,and low clinical-effectiveness rate are independent risk factors for mortality in ICU patients infected with Klebsiella pneumoniae.ICU patients with bloodstream infection of Klebsiella pneumoniae may have lower clinical-effectiveness rates and higher mortality rates.ICU patients with abdominal and urinary tract infections caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae are more likely to develop drug resistance.
3.Icariin improves injury of tight junctional function by regulating balance of mTORC1 and mTORC2 in testicular Sertoli cells in naturally aging mice
Yao-ting CHENG ; Chang-cheng ZHANG ; Guo-qing FU ; Tan WANG ; Jian-min MAO ; Jian-ming SUN ; Hai-xia ZHAO
Chinese Pharmacological Bulletin 2025;41(6):1091-1098
Aim To explore the protective effect of icariin on the damage of tight junctional function of Sertoli cells in naturally aging mice and the related mechanism.Methods 15-month-old C57BL/6J male mice were randomly divided into three groups:aging model group,low-dose and high-dose icariin treatment group(5 and 20 mg·kg-1).Another 1-month-old C57BL/6J male mice were considered as adult control group(n=10).The mice in adult control group and aging model group were given the vehicle(0.5%sodi-um carboxymethyl cellulose solution)by intragastric administration,while the mice in icariin-treated groups were given different concentrations of icariin,respec-tively.After continuous administration of icariin for three months,the testes and epididymis were immedi-ately removed,weighed,and the organ index was calcu-lated.Sperm viability and sperm concentration in epi-didymis were measured.The morphological changes of testes were observed by HE staining.The ultrastructur-al changes of tight junctions of Sertoli cells were ob-served by transmission electron microscopy.The ex-pression levels of tight junction-related proteins ZO-1,Occludin,and Claudin11 of testicular Sertoli cells were detected by Western blot.The expression and localiza-tion of ZO-1,Occludin,Raptor,Rictor,p-70S6K,and p-rps6 were detected by immunofluorescence.Results Compared with the aging model group,icariin signifi-cantly increased testicular weight and its index,and ep-ididymal index,improved sperm viability and increased sperm concentration in naturally aging mice.In addi-tion,icariin improved the degeneration of testicular morphology and the damage of ultrastructure of Sertoli cell tight junction with aging.Furthermore,Western blot results showed that icariin up-regulated the expres-sion of ZO-1 and Occludin,but had no significant effect on the expression of Claudin 11.Immunofluorescence assay showed that icariin up-regulated the expression of Rictor,and down-regulated the expression of p-70S6K,p-rps6 and Raptor.Conclusions Icariin improves the tight junction damage of Sertoli cells in naturally aging mice,and its mechanism may be related to restoring the balance between mTORC1 and mTORC2.
4.Clinical characteristics of postoperative patients with suspected infections in the intensive care unit:a multi-center cohort study of China
Shuguang YANG ; Yao SUN ; Ting WANG ; Hua ZHANG ; Fengxue ZHU ; Youzhong AN ; Huiying ZHAO
Chinese Journal of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine in Intensive and Critical Care 2025;32(3):279-285
Objective To investigate mortality risk factors and characterize pathogen distribution and antimicrobial resistance patterns in intensive care unit(ICU)patients with suspected infection following surgery.Methods A total of 65 hospitals in 16 provinces in China from July 1,2021,to December 31,2022.Clinical data were collected for surgical patients transferred to the ICU with suspected infection.Data included demographics[sex,age,underlying conditions(hypertension,diabetes,cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease,hematologic disease)],surgical site,infection site,microbiological results with susceptibility testing,drug resistance and acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ(APACHEⅡ)scores and the length of hospital stays.Patients were stratified by prognosis into death group and survial group,by drug resistance status into resistant and non-resistant groups.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression identified risk factors for mortality and antimicrobial resistance.Draw the receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve)to evaluate the predictive value of each risk factor for patient prognosis and drug resistance occurrence.Results A total of 677 patients with suspected postoperative infection in the ICU were enrolled.There were 96 deaths and 591 survivors.① Analysis of risk factors affecting prognosis:univariate analysis showed that compared with the survival group,the patients in the had a higher APACHEⅡscore,the proportion of patients with previous cerebrovascular disease,surgery sites in the abdomen,chest,brain,pelvis,limbs,other areas,as well as those with pulmonary infection,bloodstream infection,urinary tract infection,Gram-positive bacterial infection(Candida),fungal infection,multi-drug resistant bacterial infection was higher,and the length of hospital stay was shorter(all P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified higher APACHEⅡscore[odds ratio(OR)=1.15,95%confidence interval(95%CI)was 1.11-1.20],pulmonary infection(OR=4.07,95%CI was 2.05-8.11),bloodstream infection(OR=2.61,95%CI was 1.52-4.51),and urinary tract infection(OR=2.20,95%CI was 1.01-4.42)were independent risk factors for prognosis(all P<0.05).The ROC curve analysis showed that the death risk prediction model established based on the above independent risk factors had certain predictive value for the prognosis of ICU postoperative patients with suspected infection,area under the curve(AUC)=0.820,95%CI was 0.770-0.860,P<0.05.②Regarding antimicrobial resistance:250 patients developed resistance and 427 did not.Univariate analysis showed compared with the non-resistant group,the APACHEⅡscore,the proportion of patients with cerebrovascular diseases,hematological diseases,surgeries at chest,brain,limbs,other sites,as well as those with pulmonary infection,bloodstream infection,urinary tract infection,intracranial infection,Gram-negative bacillus infection,and Gram-positive cocci infection(Staphylococcus epidermidis,Staphylococcus aureus,Enterococcus faecalis),and the mortality rate in the resistant group were significantly higher,the proportion of patients with surgeries at abdominal cavity,pelvic cavity and abdominal cavity infection were significantly lower,and the length of hospital stay was significantly longer(all P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis bloodstream infection(OR=4.00,95%CI was 2.22-7.19),urinary tract infection(OR=3.25,95%CI was 1.47-7.17),Klebsiella pneumoniae infection(OR=2.23,95%CI was 11.22-44.02),Acinetobacter baumannii infection(OR=48.12,95%CI was 20.10-115.17),Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection(OR=34.06,95%CI was 13.00-89.25),Escherichia coli infection(OR=24.97,95%CI was 10.55-59.13),Stenotrophomonas maltophilia infection(OR=19.04,95%CI was 3.30-109.96),and Staphylococcus aureus infection(OR=13.48,95%CI was 4.57-39.78)were independent risk factors for resistance(all P<0.01).The ROC curve analysis showed that the predictive model for drug resistance established based on the above independent risk factors had certain predictive value for drug resistance in adult patients with suspected infections after surgery in the ICU.The AUC=0.920,95%CI was 0.890-0.940,P<0.05.Conclusion Higher APACHEⅡscores and the presence of pulmonary,bloodstream,or urinary tract infections were associated with increased mortality in ICU patients with suspected postoperative infection.Patients with bloodstream or urinary tract infections,or infections caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae,Acinetobacter baumannii,Pseudomonas aeruginosa,Escherichia coli,Stenotrophomonas maltophilia,or Staphylococcus aureus,had significantly higher odds of developing antimicrobial resistance.
5.Construction of Evidence-Based Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Distal Radius Fractures in Adults (2024) based on the Delphi method
Shixiang GAO ; Zhijian SUN ; Changrun LI ; Dongchen YAO ; Han FEI ; Zhelun TAN ; Xiang YU ; Yinghong MA ; Shiyu ZHU ; Ting LI
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedic Trauma 2025;27(8):709-714
Objective:To report construction of Evidence-Based Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Distal Radius Fractures in Adults (2024) using the Delphi method.Methods:Literature related to the study of adult distal radius fractures was fully searched for and evaluated. An expert group was established from representative experts from all over the nation. The related clinical issues were established by consulting the experts in the form of electronic questionnaires, strictly following the Delphi research method. After the first draft of Evidence-Based Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Distal Radius Fractures in Adults (2024) was written, an expert consultation questionnaire was designed for the recommendation opinions to determine the recommendation strength.Results:The clinical issues were determined by 2 rounds of correspondence based on the Delphi method. For the both rounds of correspondence, the questionnaire recovery rates were respectively 88.68% (47/53) and 98.11% (52/53), and the expert authority coefficients >0.7. According to the screening criteria based on the importance of clinical issues (mean importance score <3.5 points or a coefficient of variation ≥0.25 points and a full score ratio <30%) and expert opinions, a total of 40 clinical issues were deleted in the first round of determination of clinical issues, and a total of 5 clinical issues deleted in the second round of determination of clinical issues. The reliability analysis of the results of the 2 rounds of questionnaires showed that the Cronbach α coefficient was >0.9. In the questionnaire to determine the recommendation strength, according to the screening criteria for the consistency of recommendation strength (consistency ≥ 70%) and expert opinions, a total of 26 recommendations were screened in the first round. In the second round when the remaining 4 recommendations were investigated, one recommendation reached the consistency of recommendation strength ≥ 70%. Eventually, 27 recommendations were formed.Conclusion:The Evidence-Based Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Distal Radius Fractures in Adults (2024) constructed using the Delphi method shows good scientific validity, authority, and reliability, providing methodological references for guideline development and research.
6.Ultrasound radiomics combined with machine learning for early diagnosis of seronegative hashimoto’s thyroiditis
Wenjun WU ; Chang LIU ; Shengsheng YAO ; Daming LIU ; Yuan LUO ; Yihan SUN ; Ting RUAN ; Mengyou LIU ; Li SHI ; Mingming XIAO ; Qi ZHANG ; Zhengshuai LIU ; Xingai JU ; Jiahao WANG ; Xiang FEI ; Li LU ; Yang GAO ; Ying ZHANG ; Liying GONG ; Xuanyu CHEN ; Wanli ZHENG ; Xiali NIU ; Xiao YANG ; Huimei CAO ; Shijie CHANG ; Zuoxin MA ; Jianchun CUI
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2025;19(3):313-319
Objective:To evaluate the value of ultrasound radiomics combined with machine learning for early diagnosis of seronegative Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (SN-HT) .Methods:This retrospective study included 164 patients from Liaoning Provincial People’s Hospital , Lixin County People’s Hospital, Linghai Dalinghe Hospital, Fengcheng Phoenix Hospital, who underwent thyroidectomy for solitary nodules with normal thyroid function between Nov. 2016 and Jan. 2024. Postoperative pathology confirmed Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT) in some cases, who were further categorized into antibody-positive and antibody-negative groups based on serum antibody status. Patients without Hashimoto’s thyroiditis served as the control group. A total of 298 ultrasound images were analyzed. Radiomics features were extracted from hypoechoic non-nodular areas within 0.5 cm surrounding the tumor. Two senior pathologists and two senior ultrasound physicians independently assessed lymphocytic infiltration, eosinophilic changes of follicular epithelium, and the proportion of hypoechoic areas in pathology and ultrasound images, respectively. A machine learning model, CCH-NET, was developed using linear regression and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) techniques. The dataset was divided into a training set (80%) and a validation set (20%) to compare the diagnostic accuracy of CCH-NET with that of senior ultrasound physicians. Results:In internal validation, CCH-NET achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 88.89% for both antibody-positive and antibody-negative groups, significantly higher than the 66.67% accuracy of senior ultrasound physicians ( P<0.01). In external validation, CCH-NET achieved 75.00% and 66.67% accuracy for the two groups, compared to 50.00% by senior ultrasound physicians. For the control group, both methods achieved 93.33% accuracy. The AUC of CCH-NET was 0.848, outperforming senior ultrasound physicians (0.681) ,demonstrating superior diagnostic performance. Conclusion:The radiomics-based CCH-NET model, using non-nodular hypoechoic areas as a specific indicator, can accurately identify early SN-HT in euthyroid patients. It significantly outperforms senior ultrasound physicians, improving diagnostic accuracy and reducing missed diagnoses.
7.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.
8.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.
9.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.
10.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.

Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail