1.Application of time series and machine learning models in predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai
WANG Zhengzhong, ZHANG Zhe, ZHOU Xinyi, YUAN Linlin, ZHAI Yani, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(3):426-430
Objective:
To analyze the temporal variation patterns of sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students in Shanghai, so as to explore models suitable for predicting peaks and intensity of absenteeism rates.
Methods:
The seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) method was used to analyze the seasonal and long term trend changes in sickness absenteeism among primary and secondary school students from September 1 in 2010 to June 30 in 2018, in Shanghai. A hierarchical clustering method based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) was employed to classify absenteeism symptoms with similar temporal patterns. Based on historical data, the study constructed and evaluated different time series algorithms and machine learning models to optimize the accuracy of predicting the trend of sickness absenteeism.
Results:
During the research period, the average new absenteeism rate due to illness was 16.86 per 10 000 person day for every academic year, and the trend of sickness absenteeism exhibited both seasonality and a long term upward trend, reaching its highest point in the 2017 academic year (22.47 per 10 000 person day). The symptoms of absenteeism were divided into three categories: high incidence in winter and spring (respiratory symptoms, fever and general discomfort, etc.), high incidence in summer (eye symptoms, nosebleeds, etc.) and those without obvious seasonality (skin symptoms, accidental injuries, etc.).The constructed time series models effectively predicted the trend of absenteeism due to illness, although the accuracy of predicting peak intensity was relatively low. Among them, the multi layer perceptron (MLP) model performed the best, with an root mean squared error (RMSE) of 8.96 and an mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37, reducing 36.51% and 39.02% compared to the baseline model.
Conclusion
Time series models and machine learning algorithms could effectively predict the trend of sickness absenteeism, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be taken for absenteeism caused by different symptoms during peak periods.
2.Study on the effect of fluoride exposure on dyslipidemia in the elderly
Wenfeng LI ; Fang LI ; Dandan ZHANG ; Yani DUAN ; Yushan CUI ; Yang WANG
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(4):55-59
Objective To explore the association between different levels of fluoride exposure and dyslipidemia in elderly people, and to analyze the influencing factors and their interactions. Methods A total of 1 143 elderly people over 60 years old were randomly selected from historical high water fluorosis areas and control areas in Tianjin. Logistic regression model and classification tree model were used to analyze the influencing factors of dyslipidemia, and to analyze the interaction between high fluoride exposure and relevant influencing factors on dyslipidemia. Results The prevalence of elevated low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was 5.69% (65/1 143). There was a significant difference in the prevalence of high LDL-C in different fluoride-exposed areas (2 = 0.092,P = 0.762). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that high fluoride exposure (OR=2.306,95%CI:1.185-4.491) and abdominal obesity (OR=2.274,95%CI:1.299-3.978) were risk factors for high LDL-C, while type B personality (OR=0.529,95%CI:0.308-0.908) was a protective factor for high LDL-C. The results of classification tree model showed that abdominal obesity contributed the most to the prevalence of high LDL-C in the elderly, followed by high fluoride exposure and hyperglycemia. There was a significant multiplicative interaction between high fluoride exposure and abdominal obesity on dyslipidemia (OR=5.191,95%CI:1.609-16.745,P=0.006). Conclusion High fluoride exposure may increase the risk of high LDL-C, and there is a multiplicative interaction between high fluoride exposure and abdominal obesity on dyslipidemia.
3.Research progress on T cell exhaustion in immunotherapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.
Yang WU ; Tian LI ; Runbing ZHANG ; Yani ZHANG ; Lingling ZHU ; Tingting SHI ; Shunna WANG ; Meixia YANG ; Xiaohui YU ; Jiucong ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Cellular and Molecular Immunology 2025;41(3):271-277
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the fastest growing cancers in the world, ranking fourth among the causes of cancer-induced death in the world. At present, the field of HCC treatment is developing rapidly, and immunotherapy has been recognized as a promising treatment method, in which T cells play a key role in HCC immunotherapy. However, in the case of virus infection or in tumor microenvironment (TME), T cells will be continuously stimulated by antigens and then fall into the state of T cell exhaustion (Tex). This state will not only reduce the immunity of patients but also lead to poor efficacy of immunotherapy. Therefore, to deeply analyze the mechanism of Tex and to explore effective strategies to reverse Tex is the key point in the immunotherapy for HCC. This review aims to summarize the mechanism of Tex in HCC patients, and the current situation and shortcomings of drug research and development to reverse Tex at this stage, in order to provide theoretical basis for the optimization of immunotherapy regimen for HCC patients.
Humans
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Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/therapy*
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Liver Neoplasms/therapy*
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Immunotherapy/methods*
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T-Lymphocytes/immunology*
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Tumor Microenvironment/immunology*
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Animals
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T-Cell Exhaustion
4.Urinary fluoride benchmark dose and its association with dental fluorosis among children from drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas in Tianjin
DUAN Yani, WANG Yang, LI Fang, CUI Yushan, LI Wenfeng, ZHANG Dandan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(12):1800-1804
Objective:
To understand the dose response relationship between urinary fluoride and dental fluorosis among children from drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas in Tianjin, so as to provide a scientific basis for assessing fluoride exposure risk among children from endemic areas and establishing reference values for urinary fluoride.
Methods:
From January to December 2024, 83 endemic villages were selected in Tianjin. A total of 2 382 children aged 8-12 years from these villages underwent dental fluorosis examination, along with water fluoride and urinary fluoride testing. Additionally, data from areas where the drinking water fluorosis control target was achieved for more than 12 years (10 villages, 50 people per village) were included as controls. A restricted cubic spline model was used to analyze the relationship between urinary fluoride levels and dental fluorosis prevalence, and benchmark dose (BMD) and benchmark dose lower bound (BMDL), as well as reference dose (RfD), were calculated using the benchmark dose method.
Results:
The prevalence rates of dental fluorosis among children in drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas and areas of normal fluoride content in water in Tianjin were 10.58%, 7.60%, with a geometric mean urinary fluoride level of 0.72 and 0.60 mg/L,respectively. There were statistically significant differences in both dental fluorosis prevalence and geometric mean urinary fluoride levels between the drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas group and the areas of normal fluoride content in water ( χ 2/Z = 4.05 , -7.31, both P <0.05). Across different periods of water source improvement, there were statistically significant differences in overall population, male, and female dental fluorosis prevalence rates and geometric mean urinary fluoride levels ( χ 2/H =44.95, 23.96, 21.05; 168.39, 63.93, 107.50, all P <0.01). Significant differences were also observed across age groups among children from drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas in terms of dental fluorosis prevalence and geometric mean urinary fluoride levels ( χ 2/H =32.14, 79.73, both P <0.01). The results of the restricted cubic spline model showed that the risk of dental fluorosis in different sex, age and overall children in the drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas increased significantly with rising urinary fluoride concentration(all P-general trend <0.05). The BMD value for the drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas was 1.72 mg/L, the BMDL was 1.31 mg/L, and the RfD was 1.31 mg/L.
Conclusions
The prevalence of dental fluorosis among children in the drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas in Tianjin has been effectively controlled, but it is still higher than that in the areas of normal fluoride content in water. Moreover, urinary fluoride levels and dental fluorosis prevalence among children from drinking water borne endemic fluorosis areas show a clear dose response relationship.
5.Relationship between macrophage infiltration in the coronary plaque and downstream myocardial perfusion in mice
Lingying HUANG ; Youbin DENG ; Yibin WANG ; Yani LIU ; Jun ZHANG ; Jie TIAN
Chinese Journal of Ultrasonography 2024;33(2):93-97
Objective:To explore the relationship between macrophage infiltration in the coronary plaque and downstream myocardial perfusion in mice.Methods:The experimental group consisted of 20 ApoE knockout mice models of the coronary plaque established by feeding with cholesterol-rich diets, and the control group consisted of 20 sex- and age-matched C57BL/6 mice with the same genetic background as ApoE mice.Adenosine stress myocardial contrast echocardiography was performed on all experimental animals to obtain the values of A, β and A×β of the left ventricular myocardium in anteroseptal and posterior walls both in the resting status and during adenosine stress. Concentrations of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) were determined using mouse enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits according to the manufacturer′s instructions. The degree of macrophage infiltration in the coronary plaque was evaluated by pathological immunohistochemistry staining and the correlations with the above indicators were analyzed.Results:There were no statistically significant differences in heart rate and left ventricular structural parameters between two groups (all P>0.05). The experimental group had a lower left ventricular ejection fraction( P=0.021), and higher weight and serum levels of triglycerides, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, IL-6, and TNF-α than the control group (all P<0.05). The values of A, β and A × β of the left ventricular myocardium in anteroseptal and posterior walls in the experimental group were significantly lower than those in the control group during adenosine stress (all P<0.05). In the experimental group, the value of the macrophage infiltration found in the plaque of the left main coronary artery correlated positively with the level of serum TNF-α ( r=0.63, P=0.003) and negatively correlated with the values of A×β of the left ventricular myocardium in anteroseptal and posterior walls during adenosine stress ( r=-0.74, P<0.001; r=-0.72, P<0.001; respectively). Conclusions:Myocardial perfusion in ApoE knockout mice models of the coronary atherosclerosis was related with degree of macrophage infiltration in the coronary plaque, and macrophages may play a role by releasing inflammatory mediator TNF-α.
6.Influencing Factors of Overall Survival of Elderly Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Construction of Prediction Model of Prognosis Nomogram:A Population-Based Study
Yang WU ; Tian LI ; Tingting SHI ; Lingling ZHU ; Yani ZHANG ; Peipei GUO ; Runbing ZHANG ; Shunna WANG ; Chun GAO ; Xiaohui YU ; Jiucong ZHANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2024;51(9):756-763
Objective To explore the independent risk factors that affect the overall survival(OS)of elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC,≥60 years old)and build a nomogram prediction model.Methods Clinical data of all elderly patients with HCC from the SEER database from 2005 to 2020 were downloaded from SEER database.In accordance with the inclusion and exclusion criteria,the screened patients were randomly assigned to a training group(70%)and a validation group(30%).The independent risk factors of elderly patients with HCC were determined by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and further validated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.On the basis of the determined variables,nomograms were developed and verified to predict the OS of elderly patients with HCC at 6,12,and 24 months.The consistency index(C index),calibration curve,receiver's operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and area under curve(AUC)were used to evaluate the prediction efficiency and discrimination ability of the prediction model,and decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to evaluate the potential clinical application value of the nomogram.Results A total of 1134 elderly patients with HCC were included,with 793 in the training group and 341 in the validation group.Seven variables,including age,clinical grade,clinical stage,M stage,tumor size classification,and radiotherapy,were identified as independent prognostic factors of this population.The constructed nomogram shows excellent prediction performance,with C indices of 0.745 in the training group and 0.704 in the validation group.The AUC values of the training group at 6,12,and 24 months were 0.785,0.788,and 0.798,respectively,and those of the validation group were 0.780,0.725,and 0.607,respectively.The calibration curve shows good consistency from the predicted survival probability to the actual probability.The ROC curve and DCA show that the nomogram proposed in this study has good prediction ability.Conclusion Age,clinical grade,clinical stage,M stage,tumor size classification,and radiotherapy are important influencing factors for the survival of elderly patients with HCC.The prediction model of prognosis nomogram constructed in this study has good predictive value,and it can be used to predict the OS of elderly patients with HCC,which could be helpful for individualized survival assessment and clinical management of these patients.
7.Mechanism of Guangdong Shenqu in regulating intestinal flora in mice with food stagnation and internal heat based on 16S rDNA sequencing
Yani Jiang ; Zhenhong Zhang ; Han Chen ; Yanmin Wang ; Yanrui Xu ; Zijie Chen ; Yan Xu ; Jingjuan Wang
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medical Sciences 2024;11(2):232-244
Objective:
To investigate the effect of Guangdong Shenqu (GSQ) on intestinal flora structure in mice with food stagnation through 16S rDNA sequencing.
Methods:
Mice were randomly assigned to control, model, GSQ low-dose (GSQL), GSQ medium-dose (GSQM), GSQ high-dose (GSQH), and lacidophilin tablets (LAB) groups, with each group containing 10 mice. A food stagnation and internal heat mouse model was established through intragastric administration of a mixture of beeswax and olive oil (1:15). The control group was administered normal saline, and the model group was administered beeswax and olive oil to maintain a state. The GSQL (2 g/kg), GSQM (4 g/kg), GSQH (8 g/kg), and LAB groups (0.625 g/kg) were administered corresponding drugs for 5 d. After administration, 16S rDNA sequencing was performed to assess gut microbiota in mouse fecal samples.
Results:
The model group exhibited significant intestinal flora changes. Following GSQ administration, the abundance and diversity index of the intestinal flora increased significantly, the number of bacterial species was regulated, and α and β diversity were improved. GSQ administration increased the abundance of probiotics, including Clostridia, Lachnospirales, and Lactobacillus, whereas the abundance of conditional pathogenic bacteria, such as Allobaculum, Erysipelotrichaceae, and Bacteroides decreased. Functional prediction analysis indicated that the pathogenesis of food stagnation and GSQ intervention were primarily associated with carbohydrate, lipid, and amino acid metabolism, among other metabolic pathways.
Conclusion
The digestive mechanism of GSQ may be attributed to its role in restoring diversity and abundance within the intestinal flora, thereby improving the composition and structure of the intestinal flora in mice and subsequently influencing the regulation of metabolic pathways.
8.Comparison of quantitative detection of BCR::ABL1 p210 transcript levels: a multicenter study
Chuting ZHAO ; Canrong NI ; Yani LIN ; Xiaoli MA ; Qisheng WU ; Fang WANG ; Xiaoxue HAN ; Feng LIU ; Yang XU ; Hongxing LIU ; Jie CHEN ; Kun RU ; Minghua ZHU
Chinese Journal of Pathology 2024;53(7):672-677
Objective:To assess the capability of seven reference medical laboratories to detect BCR::ABL1 p210 transcription levels and to compare the results among those laboratories.Methods:The interlaboratory comparison was carried out in two stages. The samples were prepared by the reference laboratory. The quantitative values of BCR::ABL1 p210 of the comparison samples covered 0.001%-0.01%, 0.01%-0.1%, 0.1%-1%, 1%-10% and>10% in each stage. Real-time quantitative PCR (RT-PCR) and dPCR (digital PCR) were used to examine the samples. The conversion factor (CF) was calculated and validated for each laboratory.Results:In the RT-PCR comparison, one laboratory was failed to detect BCR::ABL1 p210 in fourteen samples at the first stage. The results of the other six laboratories were qualified with the bias <±1.2 folds (-0.133-0.338) and 95% limits of agreement within ±5 folds (upper limit 0.147-0.785, lower limit -0.770--0.109), and the corresponding CF values were calculated and validated. In the dPCR comparison, one laboratory did not report results at the second stage. The results of the other six laboratories were qualified with the bias <±1.2 folds (-0.026-0.267) and 95% limits of agreement within±5 folds (upper limit 0.084-0.991, lower limit -0.669--0.135), and the corresponding CF values were calculated and validated. The samples with BCR::ABL1 p210 quantitative values of 0.01%-0.1%, 0.1%-1%, 1%-10% and >10% could be detected by both RT-PCR and qPCR. When the quantitative value of BCR::ABL1 p210 was 0.001%-0.01%, the detection rate of dPCR was higher than that of RT-PCR (85.56% vs. 68.00%).Conclusions:A good consistency is present among various laboratories. The quantitative value of BCR::ABL1 p210 is comparable among laboratories as shown by the CF value conversion. For quantitative detection of BCR::ABL1 p210 deep molecular reaction, dPCR has a higher positive detection rate and more advantages than RT-PCR. To ensure the accuracy and reproducibility of the BCR::ABL1 p210 test, it is imperative for every laboratory to enhance their daily quality control practices.
9.Differential expression of genes related to cellular senescence during embryonic kidney development in mice
Jia LUO ; Xiaoyue WANG ; Fang YU ; Juan CHEN ; Kehong CHEN ; Yani HE ; Jia CHEN
Journal of Army Medical University 2024;46(10):1083-1091
Objective To analyze the cellular senescence pathways and their associated genes with bioinformatic analysis by screening differentially expressed genes(DEGs)during embryonic kidney development with aid of transcriptomics in order to explore the relationship between cellular senescence and embryonic kidney development.Methods After the kidney tissues from mice at embryonic age of 14.5 days(E14.5 group)and 18.5 days(E18.5 group)were collected,the kidney tissue structure was observed with periodic acid Schiff(PAS)staining,the expression profiles of the related genes during embryonic kidney development were analyzed by transcriptomics,and the changes in the genes related to cellular senescence were further analyzed with bioinformatics.The expression levels of target genes were verified by real-time quantitative fluorescence PCR and Western blotting.Results With the development of the embryonic kidney,the kidney structure gradually matured.The results of transcriptomic and bioinformatic analyses revealed that cellular senescence-related genes played an important role in the development of embryonic kidney.The mRNA and protein levels of Cdkn1a(P21),which was correlated with cellular senescence,were significantly higher(P<0.05),while the mRNA levels of Skp2,Ccne1,Ccnd2,and Cdk4 were decreased in the E1 8.5 group than the E14.5 group(P<0.05).Conclusion Obvious changes in the expression levels of cellular senescence-related genes are observed during embryonic kidney development,suggesting that cellular senescence plays an important role in the development.
10.Association between biorhythm disorders and the co occurrence of health risk behaviors in adolescence
ZHAI Yani, WANG Xuelai, WAN Yuhui, TAO Fangbiao, SHEN Juhua, SUN Chongxiu, SUN Lijing, LUO Chunyan
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(4):470-474
Objective:
To elucidate the association between biorhythm disorders and health risk behaviors in adolescence, so as to provide reference for appropriate interventions.
Methods:
From March to April 2023, 2 381 adolescents in Shanghai were selected as research objects using convenience sampling and stratified random cluster sampling methods. The Self rating Questionnaire of Biological Rhythm Disorders for Adolescents (SQBRDA) and the self report health risk behaviors questionnaire were used to investigate the status of adolescent biorhythm disorders and nine kinds of health risk behaviors, while a multivariate Logistic regression model was employed to analyze the association between the two variables.
Results:
The average SQBRDA score was (68.25±0.42) The incidence and detection rates of health risk behaviors in the groups with no co occurrence, mild co occurrence, moderate co occurrence, and severe co occurrence were 234(9.83%), 1 176(49.39%), 830(34.86%) and 141(5.92%), respectively. The total SQBRDA score was positively correlated with the risk of co occurrence of health risk behaviors. The risk of mild co occurrence, moderate co occurrence, and severe co occurrence of health risk behaviors was 9.05 times (95% CI =4.25-19.15, P <0.01), 44.55 times (95% CI =20.75-96.05, P <0.01) and 110.05 times (95% CI =40.65-297.95, P <0.01) higher, respectively, among adolescents with higher scores of biorhythm disorders compared to adolescents with lower scores of biorhythm disorders.
Conclusions
Health risk behaviors among adolescents in Shanghai draw attention to a serious phenomenon whereby biorhythm disorders are positively correlated with the risk of co occurrence. Comprehensive interventions aimed at addressing adolescent health risk behaviors should focus on regulating biorhythm disorders.


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