OBJECTIVE: Though there are no evidences that postoperative therapy improves overall survival (OS) in stage I–II endometrial carcinoma, many women receive postoperative radiation or chemotherapy. This study aimed to investigate the baseline risk of recurrence after complete resection without any adjuvant therapies and to suppose the validity of postoperative therapy for stage I–II endometrial carcinoma. METHODS: Charts for patients with stage I–II endometrial carcinoma who underwent operation without postoperative therapy between January 2005 and December 2011 were retrospectively reviewed and the baseline risk of recurrence and prognosis were assessed. Risk classifications were performed according to European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) clinical practice guidelines and Japanese guideline written by Japan Society of Gynecologic Oncology Group. RESULTS: Among 374 patients who underwent complete resection, 311 were evaluable. Five-year recurrence rates by ESMO and Japanese were 2.6% and 3.1% in low-risk, 9.2% and 6.6% in intermediate-risk and 13.5% and 13.8% in high-risk group (p=0.003 and 0.015, respectively). High-risk group had worse OS compared with low- and intermediate-risk groups (5-year OS, low: 97.9% and 97.6%, intermediate: 97.9% and 98.8%, and high: 89.5% and 87.5%; p=0.003 and 0.008, respectively). Independent predictive factors of recurrence were age over 60 years, type 2 (estrogen-independent) and peritoneal cytology. CONCLUSION: ESMO and Japanese risk classification similarly stratify the baseline risk of recurrence. Patients with stage I–II endometrial carcinoma, especially low- and intermediate-risk diseases, have low recurrence rate and favorable OS, and the benefit of postoperative therapy might be small.
Asian Continental Ancestry Group ; Classification ; Drug Therapy ; Endometrial Neoplasms ; Female ; Humans ; Japan ; Medical Oncology ; Postoperative Care ; Prognosis ; Recurrence ; Retrospective Studies

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a 3-year recurrence prediction score (RPS) system for predicting the baseline risk of recurrence of stage I–II endometrial carcinoma. METHODS: We reviewed 427 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics staging I–II endometrial carcinoma underwent surgery without any adjuvant therapy from 2005 to 2013. The patients were divided into 2 groups: the test cohort (n=251) comprising those who underwent surgery in odd-numbered years, and the validation cohort (n=176) comprising those who underwent surgery in even-numbered years. Multivariate analysis was performed using 7 candidate predictors to identify the risk factors for 3-year recurrence-free interval (RFI) in the test cohort. Each risk factor was scored based on logistic regression analyses of the test data set, and the sum of the risk factor scores was defined as the RPS system. We then applied the system in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that the significant risk factors were age ≥60 years, pathological type II, positive cervical stromal invasion, and positive peritoneal cytology. In the test cohort, the 3-year RFI rates were 100%, 95.8%, 79.9%, and 33.3% for RPSs of 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 3-year RFI was significantly higher in the low-RPS group (RPS 0 or 1) than in the high-RPS group (RPS 2 or 3) (95.2% vs. 79.9%, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The RPS system shows significant reproducibility for predicting the baseline risk of recurrence. The system could potentially impact the choice of adjuvant therapy for stage I–II endometrial carcinoma.
Cohort Studies ; Dataset ; Endometrial Neoplasms* ; Female ; Gynecology ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Multivariate Analysis ; Obstetrics ; Recurrence* ; Risk Factors