1.Multicenter machine learning-based construction of a model for predicting potential organ donors and validation with decision curve analysis
Xu WANG ; Wenxiu LI ; Fenghua WANG ; Shuli WU ; Dong JIA ; Xin GE ; Zhihua SHAN ; Tongzuo LI
Organ Transplantation 2026;17(1):106-115
Objective To evaluate the predictive value of different machine learning models constructed in a multicenter environment for potential organ donors and verify their clinical application feasibility. Methods The study included 2 000 inpatients admitted to five domestic tertiary hospitals from January 2020 to December 2023, who met the criteria for potential organ donation assessment. They were randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set (7∶3). Another 300 similar patients admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2024 to April 2025 were included as an external validation set. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and F1-score of three models were compared, and the consistency of the potential organ donor determination process was tested. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictive factors of potential organ donors. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to verify the resource efficiency of each model, and the threshold interval and intervention balance point were assessed. Results Apart from age, there were no significant differences in other basic characteristics among the centers (all P>0.05). The consistency of the potential organ donor determination process among researchers in each center was good [all 95% confidence interval (CI) lower limits >0]. In the internal validation set, the XGBoost model had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.94) and the best calibration (P=0.441, Brier score 0.099). In the external validation set, the XGBoost model also had the best predictive performance (AUC=0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94), outperforming logistic regression and random forest models. Multivariate logistic regression showed that mechanical ventilation had the greatest impact (odds ratio=2.06, 95% CI 1.54-2.76, P<0.001). DCA indicated that the XGBoost model had the highest net benefit in the threshold interval of 0.2-0.6. The “treat all” strategy only had a slight advantage at extremely low thresholds. The recommended threshold interval, which balances intervention costs and clinical benefits, considers ≥50% positive predictive value (PPV) and ≤50 referrals per 100 high-risk patients. Conclusions The XGBoost model established in a multicenter environment is accurate and well-calibrated in predicting potential organ donors. Combined with DCA, it may effectively guide the timing of clinical interventions and resource allocation, providing new ideas for the assessment and management of organ donation after brain death.
2.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
3.Efficacy and safety of surgery-assisted transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis
Zhenhua FAN ; Chengbin DONG ; Qimei LI ; Yu ZHANG ; Yifan WU ; Dongfang LIU ; Guangzhong XU ; Dezhong WANG ; Jianfei CHEN ; Zhendong YUE ; Lei WANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(3):586-592
ObjectiveTo investigate the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of surgery-assisted transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (SA-TIPS) in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis, including cavernous transformation of the portal vein (CTPV). MethodsAn analysis was performed for the data of 36 patients with portal hypertension and complex portal vein thrombosis who underwent SA-TIPS in Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, from November 2023 to January 2025, including general status, technical data of the surgical process (surgical success rate, puncture times, time of operation, the number of stents used, and the length of shunt), perioperative complications, and surgical recovery. The change in portal pressure gradient (PPG) after shunt was compared, and the rate of reaching the standard for PPG reduction was calculated, as well as stent patency rate within 1 week after surgery. The paired samples t-test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups. ResultsAmong the 36 patients, 34 (94.4%) underwent SA-TIPS successfully. The incidence rate of perioperative complications was 16.7% (6/36), including 3 cases of thoraco-abdominal hemorrhage, 2 cases of intraoperative arrhythmia, and 1 case of incision infection. There was a significant reduction in PPG after SA-TIPS (t=19.85, P<0.01), and the patients achieving a ≥50% reduction in PPG accounted for 76.5% (26/34). Imaging reexamination within 1 week showed a shunt patency rate of 100%. ConclusionSA-TIPS has a high technical success rate, a favorable safety profile, and good efficacy in the treatment of portal hypertension comorbid with complex portal vein thrombosis (including CTPV), and therefore, it holds promise for clinical application.
4.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
5.Analysis on Quality Standard of Hedyotis Herba Dispensing Granules Based on Standard Decoction
Jinghua ZHANG ; Nana WU ; Yanan LYU ; Guiyun CAO ; Jiacheng XU ; Yongqiang LIN ; Xiaodi DONG ; Jinxin LI ; Zhaoqing MENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(10):210-217
ObjectiveTo establish the specific chromatogram and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single-marker(QAMS) based on linear calibration using two reference substances(LCTRS), explore the consistency between Hedyotis Herba dispensing granules and standard decoction, and evaluate the quality of the dispensing granules. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography(HPLC) specific chromatogram was established based on 15 batches of Hedyotis Herba standard decoction and 10 batches of the dispensing granules, and LCTRS was used to locate chromatographic peaks. The actual retention times of 7 characteristic peaks in the specific chromatogram was measured on 24 different types of C18 columns, taking deacetyl asperulosidic acid and asperulosidic acid as the dual standard compounds, the retention times of the other 5 characteristic peaks were predicted and validated. Based on this, QAMS was developed to determine the contents of four components(deacetyl asperulosidic acid, deacetyl asperulosidic acid methyl ester, asperulosidic acid, and p-coumaric acid). Then, the relative correction factors of deacetyl asperulosidic acid, deacetyl asperulosidic acid methyl ester and p-coumaric acid were calculated using the reference peak of asperulosidic acid in the dual standard compounds, and each component was quantified accordingly. Finally, the consistency between the dispensing granules and standard decoction was assessed by taking extract rate of the standard decoction, consistency of the specific chromatograms, contents and transfer rates of the indicator components as indexes, and the quality of the dispensing granules was evaluated. ResultsThere were 7 common peaks in the characteristic chromatogram of samples of Hedyotis Herba standard decoction and the dispensing granules, and four of them were identified by reference standards, namely deacetyl asperulosidic acid(peak 1), deacetyl asperulosidic acid methyl ester(peak 3), asperulosidic acid(peak 6) and p-coumaric acid(peak 7). The similarity between the dispensing granules and the standard decoction was >0.9. The absolute deviation in the predicted retention time for each component by LCTRS was lower than that of the relative retention time method. The extract rate of the 15 batches of Hedyotis Herba standard decoction ranged from 7.89% to 14.60%, the contents of deacetyl asperulosidic acid, deacetyl asperulosidic acid methyl ester, asperulosidic acid and p-coumaric acid were 6.62-19.70, 3.83-17.99, 1.57-6.69, 1.62-4.52 mg·g-1, and the transfer rates of these components from decoction pieces to the standard decoction were 22.89%-39.60%, 34.03%-62.24%, 24.25%-43.70%, and 40.58%-73.71%, respectively. The extract rate, index component contents and transfer rates from decoction pieces to the three batches of Hedyotis Herba dispensing granules(P1-P3), produced by manufacturer A, were similar to those of the standard decoction prepared from the same batch of decoction pieces, and all fell within the specified range. The contents of the 4 indicator components in 7 batches of the dispensing granules(P4-P10) from manufacturers B-E were all within the range of the content converted from the standard decoction based on the quantity of the dispensing granules. ConclusionThe established specific chromatogram and QAMS based on LCTRS are reasonable and reliable. Based on the evaluation indicators of standard decoction yield, consistency of specific chromatograms, contents and transfer rates of the four index components, the 10 batches of Hedyotis Herba dispensing granules from various manufacturers have exhibited good consistency with the standard decoction, indicating that the current production process is relatively reasonable.
6.Structure, content and data standardization of rehabilitation medical records
Yaru YANG ; Zhuoying QIU ; Di CHEN ; Zhongyan WANG ; Meng ZHANG ; Shiyong WU ; Yaoguang ZHANG ; Xiaoxie LIU ; Yanyan YANG ; Bin ZENG ; Mouwang ZHOU ; Yuxiao XIE ; Guangxu XU ; Jiejiao ZHENG ; Mingsheng ZHANG ; Xiangming YE ; Jian YANG ; Na AN ; Yuanjun DONG ; Xiaojia XIN ; Xiangxia REN ; Ye LIU ; Yifan TIAN
Chinese Journal of Rehabilitation Theory and Practice 2025;31(1):21-32
ObjectiveTo elucidate the critical role of rehabilitation medical records (including electronic records) in rehabilitation medicine's clinical practice and management, comprehensively analyzed the structure, core content and data standards of rehabilitation medical records, to develop a standardized medical record data architecture and core dataset suitable for rehabilitation medicine and to explore the application of rehabilitation data in performance evaluation and payment. MethodsBased on the regulatory documents Basic Specifications for Medical Record Writing and Basic Specifications for Electronic Medical Records (Trial) issued by National Health Commission of China, and referencing the World Health Organization (WHO) Family of International Classifications (WHO-FICs) classifications, International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10/ICD-11), International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), and International Classification of Health Interventions (ICHI Beta-3), this study constructed the data architecture, core content and data standards for rehabilitation medical records. Furthermore, it explored the application of rehabilitation record summary sheets (home page) data in rehabilitation medical statistics and payment methods, including Diagnosis-related Groups (DRG), Diagnosis-Intervention Packet (DIP) and Case Mix Index. ResultsThis study proposed a systematic standard framework for rehabilitation medical records, covering key components such as patient demographics, rehabilitation diagnosis, functional assessment, rehabilitation treatment prescriptions, progress evaluations and discharge summaries. The research analyzed the systematic application methods and data standards of ICD-10/ICD-11, ICF and ICHI Beta-3 in the fields of medical record terminology, coding and assessment. Constructing a standardized data structure and data standards for rehabilitation medical records can significantly improve the quality of data reporting based on the medical record summary sheet, thereby enhancing the quality control of rehabilitation services, effectively supporting the optimization of rehabilitation medical insurance payment mechanisms, and contributing to the establishment of rehabilitation medical performance evaluation and payment based on DRG and DIP. ConclusionStructured rehabilitation records and data standardization are crucial tools for quality control in rehabilitation. Systematically applying the three reference classifications of the WHO-FICs, and aligning with national medical record and electronic health record specifications, facilitate the development of a standardized rehabilitation record architecture and core dataset. Standardizing rehabilitation care pathways based on the ICF methodology, and developing ICF- and ICD-11-based rehabilitation assessment tools, auxiliary diagnostic and therapeutic systems, and supporting terminology and coding systems, can effectively enhance the quality of rehabilitation records and enable interoperability and sharing of rehabilitation data with other medical data, ultimately improving the quality and safety of rehabilitation services.
7.Skin pharmacokinetics of inositol nicotinate in heparin sodium inositol nicotinate cream
Yaling CUI ; Qiong WU ; Liangyu MA ; Bei HU ; Dong YAO ; Zihua XU
Journal of Pharmaceutical Practice and Service 2025;43(1):6-9
Objective To establish an HPLC method to determine the concentration of inositol nicotinate(IN) in rat skin, and study the pharmacokinetic characteristics of IN after transdermal administration of heparin sodium inositol nicotinate cream in rats. Methods HPLC method was used to establish a simple and rapid analytical method for the determination of IN concentration in the skin of rats at different time points after administration. The established method was used to study the pharmacokinetics of IN after transdermal administration of heparin sodium inositol nicotinate cream in rats, and the pharmacokinetic parameters were fitted with DAS software. Results The linearity of the analytical method was good in the concentration range of 0.25-20 μg/ml, the quantitative limit was 0.25 μg/ml, and the average recovery rate was 96.18%. The pharmacokinetic parameters of IN after transdermal administration of heparin sodium inositol nicotinate cream in rats were as follows: t1/2 was (4.555±2.054) h, Tmax was (6±0)h, Cmax was (16.929±2.153)mg/L, AUC0−t was (150.665±16.568) mg·h /L ,AUC0−∞ was (161.074±23.917) mg·h /L, MRT(0−t) was (9.044±0.618)h, MRT(0−∞) was (10.444±1.91) h, CLz/F was (0.19±0.03) L/(h·kg), and Vz/F was (1.19±0.437) L/(h·kg). Conclusion IN could quickly penetrate the skin and accumulate in the skin for a long time, which was beneficial to the pharmacological action of drugs on the lesion site for a long time. The method is simple, rapid, specific and reproducible, which could be successfully applied to the pharmacokinetic study of IN after transdermal administration in rats.
8.Large models in medical imaging: Advances and prospects.
Mengjie FANG ; Zipei WANG ; Sitian PAN ; Xin FENG ; Yunpeng ZHAO ; Dongzhi HOU ; Ling WU ; Xuebin XIE ; Xu-Yao ZHANG ; Jie TIAN ; Di DONG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(14):1647-1664
Recent advances in large models demonstrate significant prospects for transforming the field of medical imaging. These models, including large language models, large visual models, and multimodal large models, offer unprecedented capabilities in processing and interpreting complex medical data across various imaging modalities. By leveraging self-supervised pretraining on vast unlabeled datasets, cross-modal representation learning, and domain-specific medical knowledge adaptation through fine-tuning, large models can achieve higher diagnostic accuracy and more efficient workflows for key clinical tasks. This review summarizes the concepts, methods, and progress of large models in medical imaging, highlighting their potential in precision medicine. The article first outlines the integration of multimodal data under large model technologies, approaches for training large models with medical datasets, and the need for robust evaluation metrics. It then explores how large models can revolutionize applications in critical tasks such as image segmentation, disease diagnosis, personalized treatment strategies, and real-time interactive systems, thus pushing the boundaries of traditional imaging analysis. Despite their potential, the practical implementation of large models in medical imaging faces notable challenges, including the scarcity of high-quality medical data, the need for optimized perception of imaging phenotypes, safety considerations, and seamless integration with existing clinical workflows and equipment. As research progresses, the development of more efficient, interpretable, and generalizable models will be critical to ensuring their reliable deployment across diverse clinical environments. This review aims to provide insights into the current state of the field and provide directions for future research to facilitate the broader adoption of large models in clinical practice.
Humans
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Diagnostic Imaging/methods*
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Precision Medicine/methods*
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Image Processing, Computer-Assisted/methods*
9.Diagnostic value of plasma IL-2, IL-6 and IFN-γ in non-Hodgkin lymphoma
Qiong WU ; Liping KONG ; Yuan DONG ; Li LI ; Siyu ZONG ; Jinge XU ; Qingyun WU
Journal of Leukemia & Lymphoma 2025;34(2):80-84
Objective:To investigate the diagnostic value of plasma cytokines such as interleukin (IL)-2, IL-6 and interferon (IFN)-γ in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL).Methods:A retrospective case-control study was conducted. A total of 48 NHL patients admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University between January 2020 and December 2022 were selected as NHL group, and another 34 healthy people who underwent physical examimation during the same period were selected as the healthy control group. The levels of IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) - α and IFN-γ in the plasma of patients at first admission and healthy subjects during physical examination were detected by using flow cytometry. The differences in general data and all cytokines levels of both groups were compared. The collinearity stepwise screening was made in 7 cytokines levels, and the screened variables were included in multivariate binary logistic regression model. Plasma cytokines with independent effects on the pathogenesis of NHL were screened. Taking local biopsy, histopathological examination or immunohistochemical examination as the gold standard, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of individual and combined diagnosis of NHL based on the selected cytokines were drawn to judge the diagnostic effect of all indicators on NHL.Results:There were 32 males (66.7%) and 16 females (33.3%) in NHL group, with the median age [ M ( Q1, Q3)] of 56.50 (45.75, 67.50) years; there were 28 males (82.4%) and 6 females (17.6%) in the healthy control group, with the median age of 52.00 (47.50, 55.50) years. There were no statistically significant differences in age and gender composition between the 2 groups (all P > 0.05). The levels of IL-2 [1.44 (1.36, 1.85) pg/ml vs. 1.19 (0.86, 1.68) pg/ml] and TNF-α [3.46 (2.68, 4.06) pg/ml vs. 2.23 (1.52, 3.46) pg/ml] in NHL group were higher than those in the healthy control group, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). There were no statistically significant differences in IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17, IFN-γ levels (all P > 0.05). According to collinear stepwise screening of independent variables, IL-4 and TNF-α were excluded from 7 cytokines, and the other 5 cytokines were included in multivariate logistic regression model, and the result showed that the decreased level of IL-2 ( OR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.08-0.53, P = 0.001) and the increased levels of IL-6 ( OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04-1.33, P = 0.009) and IFN-γ ( OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.08-1.46, P = 0.003) were independent risk factors for the onset of NHL. The results showed that the area under the curve of IL-2, IL-6, IFN-γ and the combination of 3 indexes for the diagnosis of NHL was 0.760 (95% CI: 0.651-0.870), 0.595 (95% CI: 0.468-0.722), 0.508 (95% CI: 0.373-0.642), 0.847 (95% CI: 0.763-0.930), and the optimal cut-off value of the combination of 3 indexes was 0.730 which was calculated by logistic regression model formula; the corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 70.2% and 94.1%, respectively. Conclusions:The decreased level of IL-2 and increased levels of IL-6 and IFN-γ at initial diagnosis are risk factors for the onset of NHL. The combined detection of the 3 indexes shows a good value in the diagnosis of NHL.
10.Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury
Jiang-Ming ZHANG ; Ze-Qian WANG ; Cun-Lian XU ; Pai DENG ; Yang WU ; Min-Jun QI ; Lu-Mei MA ; Wei-Qing YAO ; Dong LIU ; Dong-Mei LIU
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(8):935-942
Objective To explore the risk factors for 28-day mortality of sepsis-associated acute kidney injury(SA-AKI)patients and to develop a nomogram risk prediction model.Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted,involving 184 patients with SA-AKI admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU)of the 940th Hospital of Joint Logistic Support Force of PLA between January 2017 and December 2022.Patients were categorized into survival(n=135)and non-survival(n=49)groups based on 28-day mortality.Clinical data were collected,and statistically significant risk factors were preliminarily screened.Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of SA-AKI patients.A nomogram predictive model was constructed using these factors,and internally validated with the Bootstrap method.The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC curve)was drawn,and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was calculated to verify the predictive value and accuracy of the model.Results The 28-day mortality rate among 184 SA-AKI patients was 26.6%(49/184).Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis identified multiple organ dysfunction syndrome(MODS)(OR=16.393,95%CI 4.317-62.254,P<0.001),high acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)score(OR=1.097,95%CI 1.036-1.161,P=0.002),low oxygenation index(OR=0.992,95%CI 0.986-0.998,P=0.015),low neutrophil count(OR=0.912,95%CI 0.860-0.968,P=0.002)and low fibrinogen concentration(OR=0.733,95%CI 0.549-0.978,P=0.034)as independent risk factors.The prediction model equation was P=1/1+e-logit(P),logit(P)=-1.626+2.797×MODS+0.092×AP ACHE Ⅱ+(-0.311)×fibrinogen+(-0.092)×neutrophil count+(-0.008)×oxygenation index.Internal validation with 1000 Bootstrap resamples showed high consistency between predicted and actual values.ROC analysis showed an AUC of 0.911(95%CI 0.868-0.955,P<0.05)for the model,with 93.9%sensitivity and 78.5%specificity at a cut-off of 0.194.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed good calibration(P=0.62),and decision-making curve analysis demonstrated clinical utility within the high-risk threshold range(0.1-0.9).Conclusions MODS,high APACHE Ⅱ score,low oxygenation index,low neutrophil count,and low fibrinogen concentration are independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in SA-AKI patients.The developed nomogram risk prediction model may provide important guidance for predicting 28-day mortality in SA-AKI patients.

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