Objective To explore the values of translocator protein (TSPO) and serum cell-free mitochondrial DNA (cf-mtDNA) in predicting the disease condition and prognosis of patients with traumatic shock. Methods Eighty patients (traumatic shock group) with traumatic shock and eighty patients (without traumatic shock group) without traumatic shock were selected. Complete demographic and clinical laboratory data of patients were collected. Blood samples of patients with traumatic shock were collected at the time points of immediately after admission (T₁) and the first day (T₂), the third day (T₃) and seventh day (T₄) after admission, the level of TSPO was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and level of cf-mtDNA was measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The levels of TSPO and cf-mtDNA were compared between patients with and without traumatic shock; the patients with traumatic shock were divided into the poor prognosis group and good prognosis group according to differed prognostic outcome, and the levels of TSPO and cf-mtDNA were compared between the two groups. The predictive values of TSPO and cf-mtDNA for the prognosis of patients with traumatic shock were analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Compared with the no traumatic shock group, the traumatic shock group had higher levels of serum TSPO at T₁ to T₄ and higher levels of cf-mtDNA at T₂ to T₃, and the differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Compared with the good prognosis group, the poor prognosis group had higher levels of serum TSPO and cf-mtDNA at T₁ to T₄, and the differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Taking the prognosis of traumatic shock patients as the state variable to perform ROC curve analysis, the results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of TSPO from T₁ to T₄ for predicting prognosis in the poor prognosis group was 0.825, 0.829, 0.695 and 0.869 respectively, while those of cf-mtDNA level from T₁ to T₄ for predicting prognosis in the poor prognosis group was 0.766, 0.766, 0.837 and 0.783 respectively, and the differences were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Conclusion Traumatic shock patients have elevated levels of TSPO and cf-mtDNA, with significantly higher levels observed in those with poor prognosis, and the TSPO level on the seventh day and cf-mtDNA level on the third day have the highest predictive value for prognosis.