1.Processing technology of calcined Magnetitum based on concept of QbD and its XRD characteristic spectra.
De-Wen ZENG ; Jing-Wei ZHOU ; Tian-Xing HE ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Huan-Huan XU ; Jian FENG ; Yue YANG ; Xin CHEN ; Jia-Liang ZOU ; Lin CHEN ; Hong-Ping CHEN ; Shi-Lin CHEN ; Yuan HU ; You-Ping LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(9):2391-2403
Guided by the concept of quality by design(QbD), this study optimizes the calcination and quenching process of calcined Magnetitum and establishes the XRD characteristic spectra of calcined Magnetitum, providing a scientific basis for the formulation of quality standards. Based on the processing methods and quality requirements of Magnetitum in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia, the critical process parameters(CPPs) identified were calcination temperature, calcination time, particle size, laying thickness, and the number of vinegar quenching cycles. The critical quality attributes(CQAs) included Fe mass fraction, Fe~(2+) dissolution, and surface color. The weight coefficients were determined by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(CRITIC) method, and the calcination process was optimized using orthogonal experimentation. Surface color was selected as a CQA, and based on the principle of color value, the surface color of calcined Magnetitum was objectively quantified. The vinegar quenching process was then optimized to determine the best processing conditions. X-ray diffraction(XRD) was used to establish the characteristic spectra of calcined Magnetitum, and methods such as similarity evaluation, cluster analysis, and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis(OPLS-DA) were used to evaluate the quality of the spectra. The optimized calcined Magnetitum preparation process was found to be calcination at 750 ℃ for 1 h, with a laying thickness of 4 cm, a particle size of 0.4-0.8 cm, and one vinegar quenching cycle(Magnetitum-vinegar ratio 10∶3), which was stable and feasible. The XRD characteristic spectra analysis method, featuring 9 common peaks as fingerprint information, was established. The average correlation coefficient ranged from 0.839 5-0.988 1, and the average angle cosine ranged from 0.914 4 to 0.995 6, indicating good similarity. Cluster analysis results showed that Magnetitum and calcined Magnetitum could be grouped together, with similar compositions. OPLS-DA discriminant analysis identified three key characteristic peaks, with Fe_2O_3 being the distinguishing component between the two. The final optimized processing method is stable and feasible, and the XRD characteristic spectra of calcined Magnetitum was initially established, providing a reference for subsequent quality control and the formulation of quality standards for calcined Magnetitum.
X-Ray Diffraction/methods*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
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Quality Control
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Particle Size
2.Identification of Novel Variations in Exon 1 of ABO Blood Group Gene
Yang XUE ; Chao LI ; Wen-Long XIN ; Xing ZENG ; Tao MA ; Fang-Fang CHEN ; Chen CAO ; Hong-Jun GAO
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2024;32(4):1212-1216
Objective:Serological and molecular biology methods were used to identify the blood type of a patient with forward and reverse ABO typing inconsistency,and to explore the genetic characteristics of this blood type.Methods:The ABO phenotype of the proband was identified by tube method,and the ABO blood group genotype of the proband and her parents was determined by fluorescent PCR.The 7 exons of the ABO gene were directly sequenced and analyzed.Results:According to preliminary serological identification,the ABO phenotype of this patient was Bel subtype.Genotyping tests showed that the ABO genotype of the proband and her father was B/O1,and her mother was O1/O1.Sequencing of exons revealed novel heterozygous variations in exon 1:c.16_17delinsTGTTGCA.Conclusion:The Novel variations in exon 1 led to Bel subtype in the ABO blood group of the proband,and these variations are heritable.
3.Analysis of HUANG Feng's Medication Rules for Low Back Pain Based on Data Mining
Wen-Xing ZENG ; Min-Hua HU ; Yuan-Lan FENG ; Jing-Tao ZHANG ; Lu-Yao MA ; Hong-Song YAN ; Feng HUANG
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;41(4):1030-1035
Objective To analyze the medication rules of Professor HUANG Feng for the treatment of low back pain using data mining methods.Methods The information of prescriptions for the effective cases of outpatients with low back pain treated by Professor HUANG Feng were collected and screened.Microsoft Excel 2019 was used to analyze the frequency of medication and the distribution of properties,flavors and meridian tropism of the drugs in the included prescription.IBM SPSS Modeler 18.0 was used for association rule analysis,and IBM Statistics 26.0 was used for cluster analysis.Results A total of 239 prescriptions and 75 Chinese medicines were included.There were 23 high-frequency Chinese medicines with the medication frequency being or over 20 times,and the top 10 Chinese medicines were Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma,vinegar-processed Corydalis Rhizoma,Cibotii Rhizoma,Atractylodis Macrocephalae Rhizoma,Zanthoxyli Radix,salt-processed Achyranthis Bidentatae Radix,Rehmanniae Radix,Dipsaci Radix,Coicis Semen,and Salviae Miltiorrhizae Radix et Rhizoma.The medicines were mainly warm in nature,and were sweet,bitter and pungent in flavor.Most of the drugs had the meridian tropism of liver,stomach and spleen meridians.Among the drug combinations obtained from association rule analysis with the top 20 highest support,vinegar-processed Corydalis Rhizoma,Cibotii Rhizoma,Atractylodis Macrocephalae Rhizoma and Zanthoxyli Radix were the core drugs.Cluster analysis yielded 6 clustering combinations.Conclusion For the treatment of low back pain,Professor HUANG Feng follows the principle of"treatment adapting to the climate,individuality,and environment"and"treating the root cause of the disease",usually adopts the drugs for activating blood,moving qi and relieving pain,nourishing the liver and kidney,and also uses the medicines for replenishing qi and strengthening the spleen.The ideas of HUANG Feng for the treatment of low back pain can be used as a reference for the clinical treatment.
4.Reasons and strategies of reoperation after oblique lateral interbody fusion
Zhong-You ZENG ; Deng-Wei HE ; Wen-Fei NI ; Ping-Quan CHEN ; Wei YU ; Yong-Xing SONG ; Hong-Fei WU ; Shi-Yang FAN ; Guo-Hao SONG ; Hai-Feng WANG ; Fei PEI
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2024;37(8):756-764
Objective To summarize the reasons and management strategies of reoperation after oblique lateral interbody fusion(OLIF),and put forward preventive measures.Methods From October 2015 to December 2019,23 patients who under-went reoperation after OLIF in four spine surgery centers were retrospectively analyzed.There were 9 males and 14 females with an average age of(61.89±8.80)years old ranging from 44 to 81 years old.The index diagnosis was degenerative lumbar intervertebral dics diseases in 3 cases,discogenie low back pain in 1 case,degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis in 6 cases,lumbar spinal stenosis in 9 cases and degenerative lumbar spinal kyphoscoliosis in 4 cases.Sixteen patients were primarily treated with Stand-alone OLIF procedures and 7 cases were primarily treated with OLIF combined with posterior pedicle screw fixation.There were 17 cases of single fusion segment,2 of 2 fusion segments,4 of 3 fusion segments.All the cases underwent reoperation within 3 months after the initial surgery.The strategies of reoperation included supplementary posterior pedicle screw instrumentation in 16 cases;posterior laminectomy,cage adjustment and neurolysis in 2 cases,arthroplasty and neuroly-sis under endoscope in 1 case,posterior laminectomy and neurolysis in 1 case,pedicle screw adjustment in 1 case,exploration and decompression under percutaneous endoscopic in 1 case,interbody fusion cage and pedicle screw revision in 1 case.Visu-al analogue scale(VAS)and Oswestry disability index(ODI)index were used to evaluate and compare the recovery of low back pain and lumbar function before reoperation and at the last follow-up.During the follow-up process,the phenomenon of fusion cage settlement or re-displacement,as well as the condition of intervertebral fusion,were observed.The changes in in-tervertebral space height before the first operation,after the first operation,before the second operation,3 to 5 days after the second operation,6 months after the second operation,and at the latest follow-up were measured and compared.Results There was no skin necrosis and infection.All patients were followed up from 12 to 48 months with an average of(28.1±7.3)months.Nerve root injury symptoms were relieved within 3 to 6 months.No cage transverse shifting and no dislodgement,loosening or breakage of the instrumentation was observed in any patient during the follow-up period.Though the intervertebral disc height was obviously increased at the first postoperative,there was a rapid loss in the early stage,and still partially lost after reopera-tion.The VAS for back pain recovered from(6.20±1.69)points preoperatively to(1.60±0.71)points postoperatively(P<0.05).The ODI recovered from(40.60±7.01)%preoperatively to(9.14±2.66)%postoperatively(P<0.05).Conclusion There is a risk of reoperation due to failure after OLIF surgery.The reasons for reoperation include preoperative bone loss or osteoporosis the initial surgery was performed by Stand-alone,intraoperative endplate injury,significant subsidence of the fusion cage after surgery,postoperative fusion cage displacement,nerve damage,etc.As long as it is discovered in a timely manner and handled properly,further surgery after OLIF surgery can achieve better clinical results,but prevention still needs to be strengthened.
5.Efficacy of Wuda Granule on Recovery of Gastrointestinal Function after Laparoscopic Bowel Resection: A Randomized Double-Blind Controlled Trial.
Hai-Ping ZENG ; Li-Xing CAO ; De-Chang DIAO ; Ze-Huai WEN ; Wen-Wei OUYANG ; Ai-Hua OU ; Jin WAN ; Zhi-Jun PENG ; Wei WANG ; Zhi-Qiang CHEN
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2024;30(12):1059-1067
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Wuda Granule (WDG) on recovery of gastrointestinal function after laparoscopic bowel resection in the setting of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS)-based perioperative care.
METHODS:
A total of 108 patients aged 18 years or older undergoing laparoscopic bowel resection with a surgical duration of 2 to 4.5 h were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either WDG or placebo (10 g/bag) twice a day from postoperative days 1-3, combining with ERAS-based perioperative care. The primary outcome was time to first defecation. Secondary outcomes were time to first flatus, time to first tolerance of liquid or semi-liquid food, gastrointestinal-related symptoms and length of stay. Subgroup analysis of the primary outcome according to sex, age, tumor site, surgical time, histories of underlying disease or history of abdominal surgery was undertaken. Adverse events were observed and recorded.
RESULTS:
A total of 107 patients [53 in the WDG group and 54 in the placebo group; 61.7 ± 12.1 years; 50 males (46.7%)] were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The patients in the WDG group had a significantly shorter time to first defecation and flatus [between-group difference -11.01 h (95% CI -20.75 to -1.28 h), P=0.012 for defecation; -5.41 h (-11.10 to 0.27 h), P=0.040 for flatus] than the placebo group. Moreover, the extent of improvement in postoperative gastrointestinal-related symptoms in the WDG group was significantly better than that in the placebo group (P<0.05). Subgroup analyses revealed that the benefits of WDG were significantly superior in patients who were male, or under 60 years old, or surgical time less than 3 h, or having no history of basic disease or no history of abdominal surgery. There were no serious adverse events.
CONCLUSION
The addition of WDG to an ERAS postoperative care may be a viable strategy to enhance gastrointestinal function recovery after laparoscopic bowel resection surgery. (Registry No. ChiCTR2100046242).
Humans
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Laparoscopy/adverse effects*
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Male
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Female
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Middle Aged
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Double-Blind Method
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Recovery of Function
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects*
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Treatment Outcome
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Gastrointestinal Tract/physiopathology*
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Defecation
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Aged
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Intestines/physiopathology*
6.The efficacy of radiotherapy based combined therapy for unresectable locally invasive bladder cancer and its associated factors analysis.
Si Jin ZHONG ; Jun Jun GAO ; Ping TANG ; Yue Ping LIU ; Shu Lian WANG ; Hui FANG ; Jing Ping QIU ; Yong Wen SONG ; Bo CHEN ; Shu Nan QI ; Yuan TANG ; Ning Ning LU ; Hao JING ; Yi Rui ZHAI ; Ai Ping ZHOU ; Xin Gang BI ; Jian Hui MA ; Chang Ling LI ; Yong ZHANG ; Jian Zhong SHOU ; Nian Zeng XING ; Ye Xiong LI
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2023;45(2):175-181
Objective: Retrospective analysis of the efficacy and influencing factors of bladder preservation integrated therapy for unresectable invasive bladder cancer confined to the pelvis was done, also including the bladder function preservation and adverse effects analysis. Methods: Sixty-nine patients with unresectable locally invasive bladder cancer who received radiotherapy-based combination therapy from March 1999 to December 2021 at our hospital were selected. Among them, 42 patients received concurrent chemoradiotherapy, 32 underwent neoadjuvant chemotherapyand 43 with transurethral resection of bladder tumors (TURBT) prior to radiotherapy. The late adverse effect of radiotherapy, preservation of bladder function, replase and metastasis and survival were followed-up. Cox proportional hazards models were applied for the multifactorial analysis. Results: The median age was 69 years. There were 63 cases (91.3%) of uroepithelial carcinoma, 64 of stage Ⅲ and 4 of stage Ⅳ. The median duration of follow-up was 76 months. There were 7 grade 2 late genito urinary toxicities, 2 grade 2 gastrointestinal toxicities, no grade 3 or higher adverse events occurred. All patients maintained normal bladder function, except for 8 cases who lost bladder function due to uncontrolled tumor in the bladder. Seventeen cases recurred locally. There were 11 cases in the concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a local recurrence rate of 26.2% (11/42) and 6 cases in the non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a local recurrence rate of 22.2% (6/27), and the difference in local recurrence rate between the two groups was not statistically significant (P=0.709). There were 23 cases of distant metastasis (including 2 cases of local recurrence with distant metastasis), including 10 cases in the concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a distant metastasis rate of 23.8% (10/42) and 13 cases in the non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group with a distant metastasis rate of 48.1% (13/27), and the distant metastasis rate in the non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group was higher than that in the concurrent chemoradiotherapy group (P=0.036). The median 5-year overall survival (OS) time was 59 months and the OS rate was 47.8%. The 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) time was 20 months and the PFS rate was 34.4%. The 5-year OS rates of concurrent and non-concurrent chemoradiotherapy group were 62.9% and 27.6% (P<0.001), and 5-year PFS rates were 45.4% and 20.0%, respectively (P=0.022). The 5-year OS rates of with or without neoadjuvant chemotherapy were 78.4% and 30.1% (P=0.002), and the 5-year PFS rates were 49.1% and 25.1% (P=0.087), respectively. The 5-year OS rates with or without TURBT before radiotherapy were 45.5% and 51.9% (P=0.233) and the 5-year PFS rates were 30.8% and 39.9% (P=0.198), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis results showed that the clinical stage (HR=0.422, 95% CI: 0.205-0.869) was independent prognostic factor for PFS of invasive bladder cancer. The multivariate analysis showed that clinical stages (HR=0.278, 95% CI: 0.114-0.678), concurrent chemoradiotherapy (HR=0.391, 95% CI: 0.165-0.930), neoadjuvant chemotherapy (HR=0.188, 95% CI: 0.058-0.611), and recurrences (HR=10.855, 95% CI: 3.655-32.638) were independent prognostic factors for OS of invasive bladder cancer. Conclusion: Unresectable localized invasive bladder cancer can achieve satisfactory long-term outcomes with bladder-preserving combination therapy based on radiotherapy, most patients can retain normal bladder function with acceptable late adverse effects and improved survival particularly evident in patients with early, concurrent chemoradiotherapy and neoadjuvant chemotherapy.
Humans
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Aged
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Treatment Outcome
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Retrospective Studies
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Combined Modality Therapy
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Chemoradiotherapy/methods*
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Urinary Bladder Neoplasms/radiotherapy*
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Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols/therapeutic use*
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Neoplasm Staging
7.Programmed Intermittent Epidural Bolus in Comparison with Continuous Epidural Infusion for the Effects of Enhanced Recovery after Cesarean Section
Xiao-fei MO ; Fa HUANG ; Jie-qun ZENG ; Tian-yu CHEN ; Geng-xing HE ; Jing-hui CHEN ; Wen-xing LIU
Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Medical Sciences) 2023;44(1):93-98
ObjectiveTo compare the effects of programmed intermittent epidural bolus (PIEB) and continuous epidural infusion (CEI) on enhanced recovery after cesarean section. MethodsTotally 120 women scheduled to undergo elective cesarean section under combined spinal and epidural anesthesia, aged 18-45 years, with single fetus, full-term pregnancy (≥37 weeks), ASA grade II or III, were recruited, with 60 cases in each group. At the end of the surgery, after a similar epidural loading dose, patients were randomLy assigned to receive either PIEB (6 mL·h-1 beginning 30 minutes after the loading dose) or CEI (6 mL·h-1, beginning immediately after the loading dose) for the maintenance of analgesia with 0.1% ropivacaine. At 2, 6, 12, 24 and 36 h postoperatively, VAS score was used to evaluate the composite pain, and Bromage Score was used to evaluate the degree of lower extremity motor block. The time to first flatus, time to first ambulation and the satisfaction scores were also recorded. ResultsThe VAS scores at 12, 24 and 36 h postoperatively and the lower extremity motor block scores at 6, 12 and 24 h postoperatively in the PIEB group were significantly lower than those in the CEI group (P < 0.01). The epidural analgesic dosage was less in the PIEB group than that of the CEI group (P=0.002). The time to first flatus and time to first ambulation were significantly shorter than those in the CEI group (P < 0.05). The satisfaction scores were significantly higher in the PIEB group than in the CEI group (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the first urination time after urinary catheter removal and the length of hospital stay between the two groups (P > 0.05). ConclusionCompared with CEI, PIEB provides better postoperative analgesia, less motor block scores, lower epidural analgesic dosage, shorter the time to first flatus and defecation and time to first ambulation, and greater patient satisfaction, which is more consistent with the ERAS concept of analgesia.
8.Application of 3D printing percutaneous guide plate in closed reduction and cannulated screw internal fixation of femoral neck fracture.
Qing-Ze WANG ; Ming-Xing LUO ; Shuai ZENG ; Jun-Guo BAO ; Wen-Li LUO ; Kai-Zong YUAN ; Li-Feng LAO
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2023;36(3):209-215
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the application of 3D printing percutaneous surgical guide plate in closed reduction and cannulated screw internal fixation of femoral neck fracture.
METHODS:
The clinical data of 12 patients with femoral neck fracture from March 2019 to March 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into observation group and control group according to different operation plans, with 6 cases in each group. The observation group received percutaneous operation guide plate assisted closed reduction and hollow screw internal fixation, while the control group received closed reduction and hollow compression screw internal fixation. The operation time, intraoperative blood loss, fluoroscopy times, and Kirschner needle puncture times were compared between two groups. The location of screws were recordedon postoperative X-ray films, follow-up time, time of complete fracture healing, Harris score of hip joint and the incidence of complications were recorded on postoperative X-ray films.
RESULTS:
The operation time of observation group (32.17±6.18) min was shorter than that of control group (53.83±7.31) min (P<0.05). The amount of intraoperative bleeding in the observation group (18.33±2.94) ml was less than that in the control group (38.17±5.56) ml(P<0.05). The times of fluoroscopy in the observation group (7.50±1.05) were less than those in the control group (21.00±4.82) (P<0.05). The number of Kirschner needle punctures (8.00±0.63) in observation group was less than that in control group (32.67±3.08) (P<0.05). The follow-up time was(12.88±0.74) months in observation group and (12.83±0.72) months in control group, there was no significant difference between two groups (P>0.05). One year after operation, Harris score of hip joint in the observation group was(82.00±4.52) points, while that in the control group was(81.00±3.41) points, there was no significant difference between two groups(P>0.05). The time of complete fracture healing in the observation group was (7.50±1.05) months, while that in the control group was (7.67±1.21) months, there was no significant difference between two groups(P>0.05). The parallelism of the screws in the observation group was (0.50±0.11) ° and (0.76±0.15) °, which were lower than that in the control group (1.57±0.31) ° and (1.87±0.21) ° (P<0.05). The screw distribution area ratio (0.13±0.02) cm2 in the observation group was higher than that in the control group (0.08±0.01) cm2 (P<0.05). No complications such as necrosis of femoral head, nonunion of fracture, shortening of femoral neck and withdrawal of internal fixation occurred in both groups.
CONCLUSION
The application of 3D printing percutaneous surgical guide plate improves the accuracy and safety of closed reduction and cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fracture. It has the advantages of minimally invasive, reducing radiation exposure, fast and accurate, shortening the operation time and reducing intraoperative bleeding.
Humans
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Retrospective Studies
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Treatment Outcome
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Femoral Neck Fractures/surgery*
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Fracture Fixation, Internal
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Bone Screws
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Printing, Three-Dimensional
9.Practical Value of Environment-friendly Sample Release Agent Combined with Ultrasound in the Preparation of Pathological Tissue Sections
Yan-xing WU ; Chao-hua MO ; Fu-lan HAN ; Min ZENG ; Zeng-wei CHEN ; Wen-xiong YANG ; Xin-ye ZHOU ; Rong-jun MAO
Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Medical Sciences) 2023;44(5):847-853
ObjectiveTo explore the practical value of environment-friendly sample release agent combined with ultrasound in the preparation of pathological tissue sections. MethodsFrom February 2013 to December 2022, 2 518 pathological specimens submitted by Foshan Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine were selected as the study objects. Two samples of the same specimen were randomly divided into two groups: the environment-friendly fast group, in which the pathological tissue sections were made by using the environment-friendly sample release agent combined with ultrasound; and the traditional group, in which formaldehyde, ethanol and xylene were used to make slices in the conventional way. The differences of hematoxylin (HE) staining effect, immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining effect and MDM2 gene detection result of atypical lipomatous tumor/highly differentiated liposarcoma (ALT/WDL) tissue sections between the two groups were compared. Results① The wax of the two groups' pathological tissues was dehydrated well and the tissue hardness was moderate. After HE staining, the sections of the two groups were intact, without cracks and tremor marks, and the contrast between nucleus and cytoplasm was appropriate, with good transparency, uniform staining, and no tissue loss. The excellent rate and score of HE staining in the environmental fast group were higher than those in the traditional group, but the difference was not statistically significant (χ2 = 3.125,P1 = 0.070;t = 0.965,P2 = 0.334). ②After IHC staining of the two groups of sections, the positive location of the cells was accurate, the staining was specific and uniform, the staining intensity was moderate, the staining sensitivity was good, and there was no tissue loss. The excellent rate of IHC staining and the positive rate of IHC staining in the environmental fast group were lower than those in the traditional group, but the difference was not statistically significant (χ12 = 2.769,P1 = 0.092;χ22 = 0.800,P2 = 0.375). ③The background and outline of the two groups of WDL tissue sections were clear, the staining was uniform, the cells were clear and visible, the nuclear boundary was clear, the hybridization signal was clear and bright under the background fluorescence, and there was no miscellaneous signal. The two groups of sections were hybridized successfully, and MDM2 showed positive amplification. The number of cells successfully hybridized in the environment-friendly fast group was lower than that in the traditional group, but the difference was not statistically significant (t = 1.414,P = 0.230). ConclusionsThe tissue treatment method of using environment-friendly sample release agent combined with ultrasound can ensure the detection effect of HE staining, IHC staining and MDM2 gene detection of pathological tissue sections, and is more efficient and environment-friendly, suitable for promotion and use in hospitals at all levels.
10.A Novel Early Warning Model for Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Prediction Based on a Graph Convolutional Network.
Tian Jiao JI ; Qiang CHENG ; Yong ZHANG ; Han Ri ZENG ; Jian Xing WANG ; Guan Yu YANG ; Wen Bo XU ; Hong Tu LIU
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2022;35(6):494-503
Objectives:
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread infectious disease that causes a significant disease burden on society. To achieve early intervention and to prevent outbreaks of disease, we propose a novel warning model that can accurately predict the incidence of HFMD.
Methods:
We propose a spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) that combines spatial factors for surrounding cities with historical incidence over a certain time period to predict the future occurrence of HFMD in Guangdong and Shandong between 2011 and 2019. The 2011-2018 data served as the training and verification set, while data from 2019 served as the prediction set. Six important parameters were selected and verified in this model and the deviation was displayed by the root mean square error and the mean absolute error.
Results:
As the first application using a STGCN for disease forecasting, we succeeded in accurately predicting the incidence of HFMD over a 12-week period at the prefecture level, especially for cities of significant concern.
Conclusions
This model provides a novel approach for infectious disease prediction and may help health administrative departments implement effective control measures up to 3 months in advance, which may significantly reduce the morbidity associated with HFMD in the future.
China/epidemiology*
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Cities/epidemiology*
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Data Visualization
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Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data*
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Forecasting/methods*
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Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/prevention & control*
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Humans
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Incidence
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Neural Networks, Computer
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Reproducibility of Results
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Spatio-Temporal Analysis
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Time Factors

Result Analysis
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