In this study a grey model GM(1,1) was developed on the basis of malaria cases reported for the period of 1986-1990 in China. In order to further enhance the predicting power of the model,residual correction is performed and the residual correcting GM(1,1)model was established. The result showed that the predicting performance of the latter model was much improved. The number of predicted cases for 1991(101 770) was conformed to the number of actual malaria cases reported (101 636).

Objective To investigate the effects of moderate hypothermia on the permeability of alveolar capillary membrane in acute lung injury (ALI) induced by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) .Methods Thirty-four adult male SD rats weighing 300-350g were randomly divided into 4 groups: control group (n = 8) ; LPS group (n = 10); hypothermia group (n = 8) and LPS + hypothermia group (n = 8) . The animals were anesthetized with intraperitoneal (i.p.) 1% pentobarbital 30 mg?kg-1, intubated and mechanically ventilated (RR 80 bpm, VT 20 ml?kg-1, I: E 1:2) . Right external jugular vein and left carotid artery were cannulated for BP and CVP monitoring and blood sampling. ALI was induced by LPS 1.0 mg?kg-1 i.p. and 16h later, intratracheal instillation of LPS 1.5 mg?kg-1. ALI was considered established when PaO2/FiO2 ≤300. Hypothermia was induced by surface cooling. Body T0 was reduced to 32.5-33.0℃. In control and hypothermia groups normal saline was given instead of LPS. Arterial blood samples were taken for blood gas analysis and MAP and CVP were recorded before (T0, baseline) and 1, 2, 3, 4 h after ALI (T1-4) . At the end of experiment (4h after ALI was established) the animals were killed by exsanguination. The lungs were removed. Lung lavage was performed and the concentration of albumin in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF), the left lung wet/dry weight ratio, myeloperoxidase (MPO) activity of lung tissue were measured. Lung tissue was also taken for histologic examination by transmission electron microscopy.Results There was no significant difference in hemodynamics among the 4 groups. PaO2/FiO2 and PaCO2 remained unchanged in the control group and hypothermia group. PaO2 /FiO2 was significantly decreased and PaCO2 was significantly increased as compared to the baseline values (T0) in LPS group (P

Objective To assess the efficacy of NaClO irrigation of root canal at different temperatures.(Methods Thirty) human teeth with single root-canal mandible premolar were instrumented using standard technique,then were divided into 3 groups,carrying on root-canal irrigation.group A: 5.25% NaClO+System B,group B:5.25% NaClO+15% EDTA,group C:5.25% NaClO+System B+15% EDTA.After the teeth root were split,the scanning electron microscope was used to observe the coronal third,middle third and apical third parts.(Results The) amount of remaining debris on root canal wall in group C decreased significantly,compared with group A and B.The differences of coronal third and middle third between group A and B,group B and C,group A and C were significant(P0.05),but there were significant differences between group A,B and C(P

Objective To investigate the outcome of microsurgical treatment and its influencing factors in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.Methods The consecutive patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage treated with the early or ultra-early microsurgery were enrolled retrospectively.The Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) was used to assess the outcomes of patients at discharge.GOS 4-5 was defined as good outcome,and GOS 1-3 was defined as poor outcome.Results A total of 147 patients with aneurysmal subaraclnoid hemorrhage were enrolled.One hundred and twelve patients (76.2％) had good outcomes.There were significant differences in the proportions of preoperative Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores (12.8 ± 2.8 vs.7.5 ± 3.8;t =7.525,P ＜0.001),low Hunt-Hess grade (83.0％ vs.31.4％;x2 =34.318,P ＜ 0.001),size of aneurysm (x2 =9.531,P =0.009),preoperative rebleeding (6.3％ vs.25.7％;x2 =8.506,P =0.003),preoperative brain herniation (4.5％ vs.40.0％;x2 =26.846,P ＜ 0.001),initial CT scan showing intracerebral hemorrhage (19.6％ vs.48.6％;x2 =11.449,P =0.002),and intraventricular hemorrhage (8.9％ vs.40.0％;x2 =18.846,P ＜0.001) between the good outcome group and the poor outcome group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the larger aneurysm (odds ratio [OR] 3.194,95％ confidence interval [CI] 1.458-6.999;P =0.004),older age (OR 1.054,95％ CI 1.013-1.097;P=0.010),lower preoperative GCS score (OR 0.539,95％ CI 0.410-0.724;P ＜ 0.001),and preoperative brain herniation (OR 3.633,95％ CI 1.039-12.700;P =0.043) were the independent risk factors for poor outcomes.Conclusions After active surgical treatment,most of the patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage have good outcomes,however,patients with older age,larger aneurysms,lower preoperative GCS scores,and preoperative brain herniation usually have poor outcomes.

AIM: To study the effect of mild hypothermia on energy metabolism and hydroxyl radical production as well as delayed neuronal death (DND) in hippocampus during cerebral ischemia/reperfusion in gerbils. METHODS: Forebrain ischemia was induced by occluding bilateral common carotid arteries with aneurysm clamps for 10 min in gerbils. The DND in hippocampal CA1 sector was assessed by histological examination, and hydroxyl radical, ATP (adenosine triphosphate), ADP (adenosine diphosphate),AMP (adenosine monophosphate) levels were determined by high performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical or ultraviolet detection. RESULTS: The number of survival neuronal in hippocampal CA1 sector in mild hypothermia + I/R group was more than that in I/R group after ischemia/reperfusion 96 h. The content of 2,3-DHBA (2,3- dihydroxybenzoic acid) in hippocampus in I/R group was much higher than those in sham operation and mild hypothermia + I/R group after reperfusion 6 h (P

Objective To evaluate the effect of atorvastatin on patients with hepatolithiasis and obstructive jaundice after partial hepatectomy.Methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 51 patients with hepatolithiasis and obstructive jaundice who were treated with partial hepatectomy from July 2006 to August 2015 at Xishan People's Hospital of Wuxi.Based on whether atorvastatin was used or not,the patients were divided into the treatment group (25 patients) and the control group (26 patients).Liver function tests were determined regularly after operation.The serum liver function on postoperative day 3 (P3d) and postoperative day 5 (P5d),complications (incisional infection,abdominal infection,pleural effusion,peritoneal effusion and bile leakage) and duration of hospital stay in the two groups of patients were compared.Results There was no perioperative death in the two groups.When compared with the control group,liver function data suggested an improvement in the treatment group,as ALT and AST in the treatment group were significantly lower than in the control group on P3d and P5d [ALT (252.6 ± 87.0) U/L vs (385.0 ± 152.9)U/L,(89.9 ±28.2) U/L vs (116.9 ±29.3) U/L;AST(130.7 ±66.9) U/L vs (212.7 ±80.0) U/L,(47.5 ± 16.1) vs (69.2 ± 12.2) U/L,all P ＜ 0.05].When compared with the control group,the serum cholesterol level was lower on P3d and P5d [TC:(6.7 ± 0.3) mmol/L vs (6.2 ± 0.3) mmol/L;(6.1 ± 0.4) mmol/L vs (7.0 ± 0.4) mmol/L,P ＜ 0.05],the serum CRP level was also lower in the treatment group [(56.8 ± 15.7) mg/L vs (98.9 ± 40.3) rg/L,P ＜ 0.05];the duration of hospital stay was (10 ± 1) days in the treatment group,which was significantly different from the control group (12 ± 1) days.Conclusion The use of atorvastatin in patients with hepatolithiasis and obstructive jaundice who were treated with partial hepatectomy improved postoperative liver function and shortened postoperative hospital stay.

Objective To study the effect of laparoscopic cholecystectomy(LC) in the treatment of patients with schistosomiasis hepatic cirrhosis(SHC) complicated with symptomatic gallstone. Methods The clinical data of 256 cases of SHC with symptomatic gallstone underwent cholecystectomy in recent 4 years in our hospital were reviewed retrospectively. Of them, 74 underwent LC , which was compared with the cases who underwent open cholecystectomy(OC) in operation time, operative heamorrage,operative complications, and hospital stay.Results The operation time in LC group and OC group was 63 min and 54 min respectively; the operative bleeding of LC group was 15.6ml, OC group 85 ml;and hospital stay was 1.2days in LC group,8.9 days in OC group。Six cases of LC group was converted to OC.None had postoperative complications in LC group; but 1 case in OC group had bile leakage. Conclusions With strict the operative indications and proper operative method,LC in the treatment of SHC patients with gallstone is safe and feasible.

Objective To investigate the risk factors and prognosis on the post-resuscitation multiple organ dysfunction syndrome(MODS) after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation(CPR).Methods Clinical data of 53 patients who were suffered with cardiac arrest(CA) and undergone successful CPR with return of spontaneous circulation(ROSC) were analyzed. Results There were 48 patients accompanied with MODS(90.6%),and among them,35 patients died in hospital(66.0%).All the 10 patients with CPR interval ≥6min were accompanied with MODS and they died in hospital.There were 43 patients who underwent CA immediately and of them,38 patients were accompanied with MODS.The incidence and mortality of MODS in the patients with CA-ROSC interval 0.05).Conclusion The risk factors such as ROSC interval ≥6 min,AC-ROSC interval ≥10min and the SIRS after ROSC are significantly associated with the incidence of MODS.The organic function of the patients should be evaluated promptly.

Objective To clarify the association of pre-existing choledocholithiasis or cholecystolithiasis and the development of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC).Methods A computerized literature search was performed in Pubmed,EmBase and CBM.Cohort and case control studies on the risk of choledocholithiasis or cholecystolithiasis developing ICC was included.Meta-analysis was performed using STATA version 12.0.Either a fix or random effect model was used according to heterogeneity among studies.Egger's test was performed to assess publication bias.Results A total of 6 case control studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria including 123,713 patients,4,753 for ICC and 118,960 for tumor free controls.Bile duct stone contributed to the development of ICC (OR:15.64,95％ CI 9.33-26.23).Apart from hepatolithiasis,there was still a high risk of ICC development for choledocholithiasis (OR:11.05,95 ％ CI:4.02 ～ 30.37).Cholecystolithiasis is also a risk factor for ICC (OR:2.35,95 ％ CI:1.28 ～ 4.31).Conclusion Both choledocholithiasis and cholecystolithiasis are important prognostic factors for ICC.

Objective To investigate the efficacy of microsurgery and predictors of outcome for poor -grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage(aSAH).Methods Clinical data of 43 patients of poor -grade aSAH who per-formed microsurgery were retrospectively analyzed.There were 30 patients with Hunt -Hess grade IV and 1 3 patients with grade V.24 patients received emergency operation(within 6hours after onset),1 6 patients received ultra -early operation(within first 24hours after onset).Outcome was assessed by Glascow Outcome Scale(GOS).Results Of 43 patients who received microsurgery,favorable outcome was achieved by 1 9 cases of 43 cases (44.2%),poor outcome was achieved by 1 6 cases of 43 cases (37.2%),the overall outcome of patients with Hunt -Hess grade IV was better than that with grade V(Z =-2.486,P =0.01 6).1 8 patients with intracerebral hematoma received ultra -early or emergency operation,effective surgical intervention(GOS≥3)achieved in 1 2 patients,there was no signifi-cant difference in prognosis between the patients and the others who without intracerebral hematomas(χ2 =0.1 03,P =1 .000).Conclusion The ultra -early or emergency surgery could avoid the risk of aneurysmal re -rupture,relieve malignant intracranial hypertension as soon as possible and decrease the mortality of poor -grade aSAH patients.