Estimating the actual real-world effectiveness of the vaccine is an essential part of the post-marketing evaluation. This regression discontinuity design (RDD) using observational data is designed to quantify the effect of an intervention when eligibility for the intervention is based on a defined cutoff as age, making it suited to estimate vaccine effects. This approach can avoid the high cost and ethical issues; overcome difficulties in the organization and practice process in randomized controlled trials, which leads to a higher level of causal inference evidence and more realistic results. Here, we describe key features of RDD in general, and then specific scenarios, with examples, to illustrate that RDD are an essential tool for advancing our understanding of vaccine effects.
Causality ; Humans ; Vaccine Efficacy ; Vaccines

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic or symptomatic infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be followed by reinfection. The protection conferred by prior infection among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is unclear. We assessed the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and the protection effect of previous infection against reinfection. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane, Scopus, Web of Science, and ClinicalTrials.gov for publications up until the end date of May 1, 2021. The reinfection rate of recovered patients and the protection against reinfection were analyzed using meta-analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 19 studies of 1096 reinfection patients were included. The pooled reinfection rate was 0.65% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.98%). The symptomatic reinfection rate was a bit lower (0.37% [95% CI 0.11-0.78%], I2 = 99%). The reinfection rate was much higher in high-risk populations (1.59% [95% CI 0.30-3.88%], I2 = 90%). The protection against reinfection and symptomatic reinfection was similar (87.02% [95% CI 83.22-89.96%] and 87.17% [95% CI 83.09-90.26%], respectively). CONCLUSIONS The rate of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 is relatively low. The protection against SARS-CoV-2 after natural infection is comparable to that estimated for vaccine efficacy. These data may help guide public health measures and vaccination strategies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. High-quality clinical studies are needed to establish the relevant risk factors in recovered patients.
COVID-19 ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Reinfection ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccine Efficacy

The Delta variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a new global wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. COVID-19 vaccines currently available in China show high effectiveness against severe illness and death. However, transmission of the virus is not fully stopped by vaccination alone, therefore, integrated vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions is necessary to prevent and control the epidemic in the near future. Further expanded vaccine coverage of primary doses as well as booster shots in China's domestic population are needed to reduce severe illness and death. In order to provide evidence necessary for adjusting and optimizing immunization strategies and pandemic control measures, it is essential to conduct research on vaccine effectiveness against emerging variants, persistence of vaccine-induced protection, surveillance of adverse event following immunization with large-scale vaccine use, and modelling studies on strategic combinations of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions.
COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Vaccines ; China ; Humans ; Immunization, Secondary ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Vaccination ; Vaccine Efficacy