OBJECTIVE: To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. METHODS: Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods RESULTS: The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were 708~1,426 in Weibull distribution and 918~1,980 in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was 16~25 in Weibull distribution and 13~26 in Gamma distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were 1.4~4.0 times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea. Further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.
HIV Infections ; HIV* ; Incidence* ; Korea* ; Prevalence

PURPOSE: In Korea, vivax malaria re-emerged in 1993 and the outbreak continued in several areas near the DMZ until now. This study was conducted to define the epidemiologic pattern of malaria in Korea and to examine the changes comparing to the one in 1999. METHODS: We collected information about civilian, veteran patients through the National malaria surveillance system and soldier from the Ministry of National Defense. We analyze epidemiological characteristics of malaria by groups (civilian, veteran, soldier). RESULTS: The reported cases of malaria in 2000 were 4,142 that number is an increase of 14% in numbers compared with those of 1999's. Most of cases occured in 17 counties nearby DMZ and from May to October(98.7%) seasonally. The incidence rates (per 100,000) in 2000 by residence were 17.0 in Gangwon-Do, 15.5 in Incheon Metropolitan city, 10.3 in Gyeonggi-Do was dereased. The risk area in 2000 were 17 counties located nearly DMZ and the high risk area were 5 counties where the incidence rate greater than 100. In case of civilian and veteran, the time required to diagnosis from onset of symptom was 8.1 days on the average. CONCLUSION: Epidemiologic pattern of malaria in 2000 did not differ from the one in 1999. Et showed regional spread (increasing risk area) but incidence rate was lowered in the high risk area of 1999. And it is necessary that we pay more attention to Gangwon-Do and Incheon metrocity to reduce the incidence rate in 2001.
Diagnosis ; Epidemiology* ; Gangwon-do ; Gyeonggi-do ; Humans ; Incheon ; Incidence ; Korea* ; Malaria* ; Malaria, Vivax ; Military Personnel ; Seasons ; Veterans

The increase in number of nuclear families and double-income families contributed to the birth of many post-delivery care facilities, and this trend also bolstered such facilities that are not registered as a medical institution to provide post-delivery care to group of infants and new mothers. The fear of anthrax that hit America after the September 11 Attack has attributed to aggravation of the fear of virus in Korea, and the cause of infant deaths at post-delivery care facilities drew unprecedented public attention. In this context, it would be worth to note the cause of infant deaths in six cases that took place in October and November of 2001, March of 2002 at post-delivery care facilities. The age of the victims were 11 days(twin boys), 17 days(girl), 21 days(girl), 15 days(girl), 14 days(girl) and 14 days(boy). The circumstances under which those infants died were varied, but with a exception of one infant, all were presumed to have suffered from diarrhea at the facilities, and were brought to hospitals after suffering from respiratory difficulties only after care providers suspected more serious medical problems than initial thought. The first two autopsies indicated positive for rotavirus test. Autopsies of all cases except one reveal no specific findings that are noteworthy. One case shows global ischemic myocardial necrosis and pneumonia. In five cases where the amount of feeding was tracked down, the less than normal amount of feeding and the slower than normal body-weight increase were noted that lasted for several days before deaths. It is our opinion that even healthy infants in a group care facility require a higher standard of sanitation to prevent various infection and that the use of measurement that easily indicates the correlation between the amount of feeding and the body-weight increase will be helpful to prevent deaths from virus infection at group care type of post-delivery facilities.
Americas ; Anthrax ; Autopsy ; Diarrhea ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn* ; Korea ; Mothers ; Necrosis ; Nuclear Family ; Parturition ; Pneumonia ; Rotavirus ; Sanitation