1.A prognostic model of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after curative intent resection based on Bayesian network
Chen CHEN ; Yuhan WU ; Jingwei ZHANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Hong WU ; Qi LI ; Tianqiang SONG ; Yu HE ; Xianhan MAO ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Jingdong LI ; Shubin SI ; Zhiqiang CAI ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2021;59(4):265-271
Objective:To examine a survival prognostic model applicable for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on Bayesian network.Methods:The clinical and pathological data of ICC patients who underwent curative intent resection in ten Chinese hepatobiliary surgery centers from January 2010 to December 2018 were collected.A total of 516 patients were included in the study. There were 266 males and 250 females.The median age( M( Q R)) was 58(14) years.One hundred and sixteen cases (22.5%) with intrahepatic bile duct stones,and 143 cases (27.7%) with chronic viral hepatitis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis.The univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.One-year survival prediction models based on tree augmented naive Bayesian (TAN) and na?ve Bayesian algorithm were established by Bayesialab software according to different variables,a nomogram model was also developed based on the independent predictors.The receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the prediction effect of the models. Results:The overall median survival time was 25.0 months,and the 1-,3-and 5-year cumulative survival rates was 76.6%,37.9%,and 21.0%,respectively.Univariate analysis showed that gender,preoperative jaundice,pathological differentiation,vascular invasion,microvascular invasion,liver capsule invasion,T staging,N staging,margin,intrahepatic bile duct stones,carcinoembryonic antigen,and CA19-9 affected the prognosis(χ 2=5.858-54.974, all P<0.05).The Cox multivariate model showed that gender,pathological differentiation,liver capsule invasion, T stage,N stage,intrahepatic bile duct stones,and CA19-9 were the independent predictive factors(all P<0.05). The AUC of the TAN model based on all 19 clinicopathological factors was 74.5%,and the AUC of the TAN model based on the 12 prognostic factors derived from univariate analysis was 74.0%,the AUC of the na?ve Bayesian model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors was 79.5%,the AUC and C-index of the nomogram survival prediction model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors were 78.8% and 0.73,respectively. Conclusion:The Bayesian network model may provide a relatively accurate prognostic prediction for ICC patients after curative intent resection and performed superior to the nomogram model.
2.A prognostic model of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after curative intent resection based on Bayesian network
Chen CHEN ; Yuhan WU ; Jingwei ZHANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Hong WU ; Qi LI ; Tianqiang SONG ; Yu HE ; Xianhan MAO ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Jingdong LI ; Shubin SI ; Zhiqiang CAI ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2021;59(4):265-271
Objective:To examine a survival prognostic model applicable for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) based on Bayesian network.Methods:The clinical and pathological data of ICC patients who underwent curative intent resection in ten Chinese hepatobiliary surgery centers from January 2010 to December 2018 were collected.A total of 516 patients were included in the study. There were 266 males and 250 females.The median age( M( Q R)) was 58(14) years.One hundred and sixteen cases (22.5%) with intrahepatic bile duct stones,and 143 cases (27.7%) with chronic viral hepatitis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis.The univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.One-year survival prediction models based on tree augmented naive Bayesian (TAN) and na?ve Bayesian algorithm were established by Bayesialab software according to different variables,a nomogram model was also developed based on the independent predictors.The receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the prediction effect of the models. Results:The overall median survival time was 25.0 months,and the 1-,3-and 5-year cumulative survival rates was 76.6%,37.9%,and 21.0%,respectively.Univariate analysis showed that gender,preoperative jaundice,pathological differentiation,vascular invasion,microvascular invasion,liver capsule invasion,T staging,N staging,margin,intrahepatic bile duct stones,carcinoembryonic antigen,and CA19-9 affected the prognosis(χ 2=5.858-54.974, all P<0.05).The Cox multivariate model showed that gender,pathological differentiation,liver capsule invasion, T stage,N stage,intrahepatic bile duct stones,and CA19-9 were the independent predictive factors(all P<0.05). The AUC of the TAN model based on all 19 clinicopathological factors was 74.5%,and the AUC of the TAN model based on the 12 prognostic factors derived from univariate analysis was 74.0%,the AUC of the na?ve Bayesian model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors was 79.5%,the AUC and C-index of the nomogram survival prediction model based on 7 independent prognostic risk factors were 78.8% and 0.73,respectively. Conclusion:The Bayesian network model may provide a relatively accurate prognostic prediction for ICC patients after curative intent resection and performed superior to the nomogram model.
3.Application value of different lymph node staging system in predicting prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
Chen CHEN ; Yuhan WU ; Qi LI ; Hong WU ; Yinghe QIU ; Tianqiang SONG ; Xianhai MAO ; Yu HE ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Jingdong LI ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2020;58(4):295-302
Objective:To examine the value of number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), lymph node ratio(LNR) and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes(LODDS) in assessing the prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC).Methods:The clinical and pathological data of 440 ICC patients who underwent curative-intent resection in 10 of Chinese hepatobiliary surgery centers from January 2010 to December 2018 were collected, and the deadline of follow-up was April 30th, 2019. Among them, 205 were males and 235 were females, with age of (57.0±9.9) years (range:23-83 years).Eighty-five cases (19.3%) had intrahepatic bile duct stones, and 98 cases (22.3%) had chronic viral hepatitis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. The univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.Results:A total of 440 patients underwent curative-intent resection and lymphadenectomy.R0 resection were achieved in 424 cases (96.4%) and R1 resection were in 16 cases (3.6%). The results of postoperative pathological examination showed that high, moderate and poor differentiation was 4.2%(18/426), 60.6%(258/426) and 35.2%(150/426), respectively.Adenocarcinoma was seen in 90.2%(397/440) and non-adenocarcinoma was seen in 9.8%(43/440), respectively. T stage: 2 cases (0.5%) with Tis, 83 cases(18.9%) with T1a, 97 cases(22.0%) with T1b, 95 cases(21.6%) with T2, 122 cases (27.7%) with T3 and 41 cases(9.3%) with T4.The overall median survival time was 24.0 months, and the 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rate was 74.3%, 37.7% and 18.3%, respectively. Lymphatic metastasis occurred in 175 patients(39.8%), the median total number of TNLE( M( Q R)) was 6(5), the median number of NMLN was 0(1), the median number of LNR was 0 (0.33) and the median number of LODDS was -0.70(-0.92). Rerults of univariate analysis showed that combined stones, pathological differentiation, vascular invasion, LODDS, margin and T staging affected the prognosis (all P<0.05). Rerults of multivariate analysis showed that pathological differentiation, LODDS, margin, and T staging were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of ICC patients (all P<0.05). Conclusion:LODDS could be used as an optimal prognostic lymph node staging index for ICC, and it is also an independent risk factor for survival after curative intent resection.
4.Analysis of the relationship between the number of lymph nodes examined and prognosis for curatively resected gallbladder carcinoma: a multi-institutional study
Rui ZHANG ; Yuhan WU ; Dong ZHANG ; Yongjie ZHANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Ning YANG ; Tianqiang SONG ; Jianying LOU ; Jiangtao LI ; Xianhai MAO ; Shengping LI ; Shubin SI ; Zhiqiang CAI ; Chen CHEN ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2020;58(4):303-309
Objective:To examine the role of the number of lymph nodes examined(NLNE) on the prognosis of patients with curatively resected gallbladder carcinoma(GBC).Methods:The clinicopathological data and prognosis of 401 patients with GBC who underwent radical surgery from six institutions of China from January 2013 to December 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. There were 153 males(38.2%) and 248 females(61.8%), with age of (62.0±10.5) years (range: 30-88 years). Fifty-three patients(22.2%) were accompanied by jaundice. All patients underwent radical resection+regional lymphadenectomy.R0 or R1 resection was confirmed by postoperative pathological examination.The different cut-off values of NLNE were determined by the X-tile software, the optimal cut-off values were identified by analyzing the relationship between different cut-off values of NLNE with survival rate. Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.Results:Among the 401 patients enrolled, 135 cases (33.6%) had lymphatic metastasis, of which 98 cases were in N1 stage(24.4%) and 37 cases were in N2 stage(9.2%).A total of 2 794 NLNE were retrieved, with a median count of 6 (5).The median positive lymph nodes count was 0 (1), and the median positive lymph nodes ratio was 0 (IQR, 0-0.2). Since the 12 and 15 were determined as the cut-off values by X-tile, all patients were divided into three groups of 1-11, 12-15 and ≥16.The 3-year survival rate of the three groups was 45.2%, 74.5%, 12.0% respectively, with statistically significant difference between three groups (χ 2=10.94, P<0.01). The results of multivariate analysis showed that NLNE was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival ( P<0.05). Further analysis was performed specifically for subgroup of T stages. For T1b patients, the prognosis of the NLNE with 1-7 group was significantly better than that of the ≥8 group(χ 2=4.610, P<0.05). For T2 patients, the prognosis of the TLNE ≥7 group was significantly better than that of 1 -6 group (χ 2=4.287, P<0.05). For T3 and T4 patients, the prognosis of the TLNE with 12 - 15 group was significantly better than that of 1 -11 group (χ 2=5.007, P<0.01) and ≥16 group (χ 2=10.158, P<0.01). Conclusions:The NLNE is an independent factor affecting the prognosis of patients with GBC.For patients with stage T1b,8 lymph nodes should be retrieved; for patients with stage T2,extensive dissection of more than 6 lymph nodes can significantly improve the prognosis.For advanced patients (stages T3 and T4), extensive dissection with 12-15 lymph nodes is recommended. However, it fails to get more survival benefits by dissecting more than 16 lymph nodes.
5.Application value of different lymph node staging system in predicting prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
Chen CHEN ; Yuhan WU ; Qi LI ; Hong WU ; Yinghe QIU ; Tianqiang SONG ; Xianhai MAO ; Yu HE ; Zhangjun CHENG ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Jingdong LI ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2020;58(4):295-302
Objective:To examine the value of number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), lymph node ratio(LNR) and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes(LODDS) in assessing the prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC).Methods:The clinical and pathological data of 440 ICC patients who underwent curative-intent resection in 10 of Chinese hepatobiliary surgery centers from January 2010 to December 2018 were collected, and the deadline of follow-up was April 30th, 2019. Among them, 205 were males and 235 were females, with age of (57.0±9.9) years (range:23-83 years).Eighty-five cases (19.3%) had intrahepatic bile duct stones, and 98 cases (22.3%) had chronic viral hepatitis.The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. The univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.Results:A total of 440 patients underwent curative-intent resection and lymphadenectomy.R0 resection were achieved in 424 cases (96.4%) and R1 resection were in 16 cases (3.6%). The results of postoperative pathological examination showed that high, moderate and poor differentiation was 4.2%(18/426), 60.6%(258/426) and 35.2%(150/426), respectively.Adenocarcinoma was seen in 90.2%(397/440) and non-adenocarcinoma was seen in 9.8%(43/440), respectively. T stage: 2 cases (0.5%) with Tis, 83 cases(18.9%) with T1a, 97 cases(22.0%) with T1b, 95 cases(21.6%) with T2, 122 cases (27.7%) with T3 and 41 cases(9.3%) with T4.The overall median survival time was 24.0 months, and the 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rate was 74.3%, 37.7% and 18.3%, respectively. Lymphatic metastasis occurred in 175 patients(39.8%), the median total number of TNLE( M( Q R)) was 6(5), the median number of NMLN was 0(1), the median number of LNR was 0 (0.33) and the median number of LODDS was -0.70(-0.92). Rerults of univariate analysis showed that combined stones, pathological differentiation, vascular invasion, LODDS, margin and T staging affected the prognosis (all P<0.05). Rerults of multivariate analysis showed that pathological differentiation, LODDS, margin, and T staging were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of ICC patients (all P<0.05). Conclusion:LODDS could be used as an optimal prognostic lymph node staging index for ICC, and it is also an independent risk factor for survival after curative intent resection.
6.Analysis of the relationship between the number of lymph nodes examined and prognosis for curatively resected gallbladder carcinoma: a multi-institutional study
Rui ZHANG ; Yuhan WU ; Dong ZHANG ; Yongjie ZHANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Ning YANG ; Tianqiang SONG ; Jianying LOU ; Jiangtao LI ; Xianhai MAO ; Shengping LI ; Shubin SI ; Zhiqiang CAI ; Chen CHEN ; Zhimin GENG ; Zhaohui TANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2020;58(4):303-309
Objective:To examine the role of the number of lymph nodes examined(NLNE) on the prognosis of patients with curatively resected gallbladder carcinoma(GBC).Methods:The clinicopathological data and prognosis of 401 patients with GBC who underwent radical surgery from six institutions of China from January 2013 to December 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. There were 153 males(38.2%) and 248 females(61.8%), with age of (62.0±10.5) years (range: 30-88 years). Fifty-three patients(22.2%) were accompanied by jaundice. All patients underwent radical resection+regional lymphadenectomy.R0 or R1 resection was confirmed by postoperative pathological examination.The different cut-off values of NLNE were determined by the X-tile software, the optimal cut-off values were identified by analyzing the relationship between different cut-off values of NLNE with survival rate. Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were implemented respectively using the Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.Results:Among the 401 patients enrolled, 135 cases (33.6%) had lymphatic metastasis, of which 98 cases were in N1 stage(24.4%) and 37 cases were in N2 stage(9.2%).A total of 2 794 NLNE were retrieved, with a median count of 6 (5).The median positive lymph nodes count was 0 (1), and the median positive lymph nodes ratio was 0 (IQR, 0-0.2). Since the 12 and 15 were determined as the cut-off values by X-tile, all patients were divided into three groups of 1-11, 12-15 and ≥16.The 3-year survival rate of the three groups was 45.2%, 74.5%, 12.0% respectively, with statistically significant difference between three groups (χ 2=10.94, P<0.01). The results of multivariate analysis showed that NLNE was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival ( P<0.05). Further analysis was performed specifically for subgroup of T stages. For T1b patients, the prognosis of the NLNE with 1-7 group was significantly better than that of the ≥8 group(χ 2=4.610, P<0.05). For T2 patients, the prognosis of the TLNE ≥7 group was significantly better than that of 1 -6 group (χ 2=4.287, P<0.05). For T3 and T4 patients, the prognosis of the TLNE with 12 - 15 group was significantly better than that of 1 -11 group (χ 2=5.007, P<0.01) and ≥16 group (χ 2=10.158, P<0.01). Conclusions:The NLNE is an independent factor affecting the prognosis of patients with GBC.For patients with stage T1b,8 lymph nodes should be retrieved; for patients with stage T2,extensive dissection of more than 6 lymph nodes can significantly improve the prognosis.For advanced patients (stages T3 and T4), extensive dissection with 12-15 lymph nodes is recommended. However, it fails to get more survival benefits by dissecting more than 16 lymph nodes.
7.A comparative study on the treatment of degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis by oblique interbody fusion and minimally invasive transforminal lumbar interbody fusion
Tianqiang QIU ; Renhua QIU ; Zhengbao PANG ; Banglei PANG ; Deyong CUI ; Fuguo YE ; Zhijun HU ; Wenbin XU ; Xiangqian FANG ; Shunwu FAN
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics 2020;40(8):526-535
Objective:To compare the efficacy of oblique lumbar interbody fusion (OLIF) and minimally invasive interbody fusion (MI-TLIF) for degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis.Methods:Data of 40 patients with I-II degree single level degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis from January 2018 to December 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the operation procedure, they were divided into two groups: OLIF group and MI-TLIF group, and each group had 20 patients. There were 15 males and 5 females in the OLIF group, aged 50.3±8.8 years; and there were 13 males and 7 females in the MI-TLIF group, aged 51.7±8.7 years. According to the Meyerding's grade system, there were 16 patients of type I in the OLIF group and 15 cases in the MI-TLIF group; and there were 4 patients of type II in the OLIF group and 5 cases in the MI-TLIF group. The operation time, intra-operative hemorrhage, postoperative drainage, recessive blood loss and albumin loss were recorded. The CRP and ESR on the third day after operation, the VAS score and ODI score before and after operation were recorded. The lumbar lordosis (LL), fused segmental lordosis (FSL) and disc height (DH) before and after operation were recorded. The time of getting out of bed and walking and the hospital stay were recorded. Paired t-test was used to analyze the data.Results:Forty patients successfully underwent the operation. The operation time of OLIF group was 96±20 min, with intraoperative blood loss of 61±32 ml and postoperative drainage volume of 18±8 ml. The operation time of MI-TLIF group was 132±26 min, with intraoperative blood loss of 262±102 ml and postoperative drainage volume of 95±42 ml; and there was statistical difference between the two groups ( t=4.901, 8.404, 8.064; P< 0.001). On the third day after operation, the occult blood loss was 139±47 ml in the OLIF group and 486±192 ml in the MI-TLIF group; the albumin loss was 4.2±1.9 g/L in the OLIF group and 10.2±3.9 g/L in the MI-TLIF group; CRP was 34±11 mg/L in the OLIF group and 106±39 mg/L in the MI-TLIF group; ESR was 41±15 mm/1 h in the OLIF group and 71±24 mm/1 h in the MI-TLIF group, and there all were statistical differences between the two groups ( t=7.838, 6.184, 7.983, 4.675; P< 0.001). The VAS scores were 2.2±1.5, 1.8±1.3 and ODI scores were 14%±11%, 59%±17%, respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups. The LL were 33.41°±9.25°, 32.07°±9.54°, FSL were 11.59°±5.09°, 10.61°±4.56° and DH were 10.35±2.30 mm, 10.85±1.85 mm, respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups. The follow-up time was 13.5±2.3 months in the OLIF group and 14.1±2.8 months in the MI-TLIF group. Three patients in the MI-TLIF group had radiation pain in the lower extremity on the third day after operation, which relieved after NSAID drugs and mannitol treatment. In the group of OLIF, the skin temperature of the left lower extremity increased in 1 case on the first day after operation, in which sympathetic chain injury was considered, and the patient recovered after 2.5 months; in the group of OLIF, the numbness in the front of the left thigh and the weakness of flexion of the hip was found in 3 cases, in which the edema or injury of the psoas major muscle was considered. Conclusion:Compared with MI-TLIF in the treatment of I, II degree single segment degenerative lumbar spondylolisthesis, OLIF has the advantages of shorter operation time, less intraoperative and postoperative blood loss, lower inflammation index, earlier time to get out of bed and shorter hospital stay. However, the outcomes of the two surgeries were similar.
8. Pilot study of the relationship between clinical classification of gallbladder cancer and prognosis: a retrospective multicenter clinical study
Dong ZHANG ; Zhimin GENG ; Chen CHEN ; Yongjie ZHANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Ning YANG ; Desheng WANG ; Xuezhi WANG ; Tianqiang SONG ; Jianying LOU ; Jiangtao LI ; Xianhai MAO ; Wenbin DUAN ; Shengping LI ; Xiangming LAO ; Xiangqian ZHAO ; Yajin CHEN ; Lei ZHANG ; Yudong QIU ; Jiansheng LIU ; Yongyi ZENG ; Wei GONG ; Zhaohui TANG ; Qingguang LIU ; Zhiwei QUAN
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2019;57(4):258-264
Objectives:
To propose a novel clinical classification system of gallbladder cancer, and to investigate the differences of clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis based on patients who underwent radical resection with different types of gallbladder cancer.
Methods:
The clinical data of 1 059 patients with gallbladder cancer underwent radical resection in 12 institutions in China from January 2013 to December 2017 were retrospectively collected and analyzed.There were 389 males and 670 females, aged (62.0±10.5)years(range:22-88 years).According to the location of tumor and the mode of invasion,the tumors were divided into peritoneal type, hepatic type, hepatic hilum type and mixed type, the surgical procedures were divided into regional radical resection and extended radical resection.The correlation between different types and T stage, N stage, vascular invasion, neural invasion, median survival time and surgical procedures were analyzed.Rates were compared by χ2 test, survival analysis was carried by Kaplan-Meier and Log-rank test.
Results:
Regional radical resection was performed in 940 cases,including 81 cases in T1 stage,859 cases in T2-T4 stage,119 cases underwent extended radical resection;R0 resection was achieved in 990 cases(93.5%).The overall median survival time was 28 months.There were 81 patients in Tis-T1 stage and 978 patients in T2-T4 stage.The classification of gallbladder cancer in patients with T2-T4 stage: 345 cases(35.3%)of peritoneal type, 331 cases(33.8%) of hepatic type, 122 cases(12.5%) of hepatic hilum type and 180 cases(18.4%) of mixed type.T stage(χ2=288.60,
9. The survival prediction model of advanced gallbladder cancer based on Bayesian network: a multi-institutional study
Zhaohui TANG ; Zhimin GENG ; Chen CHEN ; Shubin SI ; Zhiqiang CAI ; Tianqiang SONG ; Peng GONG ; Li JIANG ; Yinghe QIU ; Yu HE ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Shengping LI ; Yingcai ZHANG ; Yang YANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2018;56(5):342-349
Objective:
To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery.
Methods:
The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test.
Results:
A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8(>23.77 months), the importance ranking showed that NMLN(0.366 6), margin(0.350 1), T stage(0.319 2) and pathological grade(0.258 9) were the top 4 prognosis factors influencing the postoperative MST.These four factors were taken as observation variables to get the probability of patients in different survival periods.Basing on these results, a survival prediction score system including NMLN, margin, T stage and pathological grade was designed, the median survival time(month) of 4-9 points were 66.8, 42.4, 26.0, 9.0, 7.5 and 2.3, respectively, there was a statistically significant difference in the different points(
10. A multicenter retrospective study for the prognosis of T1b stage gallbladder carcinoma underwent different surgical procedure
Peng LIU ; Xianbin ZHANG ; Zhimin GENG ; Wenlong ZHAI ; Yinghe QIU ; Tianqiang SONG ; Yu HE ; Jingdong LI ; Shengping LI ; Zhaohui TANG ; Peng GONG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2018;56(5):355-359
Objective:
To explore the prognosis of patients with T1b stage gallbladder carcinoma underwent different surgical procedure.
Methods:
The clinicopathological data of 97 patients with T1b stage gallbladder carcinoma came from 8 clinical centers from January 2010 to December 2016 and 794 patients who were admitted to the SEER database of USA from January 1973 to December 2014 were analyzed.There were 891 patients including 254 males and 637 females (1.0∶2.5) with age of (69.5±12.0)years. There were 380 patients who were less than 70 years old, 511 patients who were more than 70 years old. And there were 213 patients with the diameter of tumor less than 20 mm, 270 patients with the diameter of tumor more than 20 mm, 408 patients were unclear. There were 196 patients with well differentiation, 407 patients with moderately differentiation, 173 patients with poorly differentiation, 8 patients with undifferentiated, 107 patients were unclear. In the 891 patients with T1b stage gallbladder carcinoma, there were 562 cases accepted the simple cholecystectomy, 231 cases with simple cholecystectomy plus lymphadenectomy, and 98 cases with radical cholecystectomy. The time of follow-up were until June 2017. χ2 test was used to analyze the enumeration data, rank-sum test was used to analyze the measurement data, the analyses of prognostic factors were used Cox proportional hazards model, the survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier method.
Results:
The results of Cox proportional hazards model indicated, age, differentiation, surgical procedure were the risk factors of prognostic(1.929(1.594-2.336),

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