Objective: To explore the trajectory of the development of permanent caries in 12- to 16-year-old students in Liuyang and to provide a reference for the prevention and management of caries. Methods: Primary and secondary school students who were registered within the Liuyang jurisdiction were screened for caries from September to November by the Liuyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A total of 7 297 students between the ages of 12 and 16 years with complete permanent dentition caries monitoring records and traceable deciduous dentition caries monitoring records were selected from 2013 to 2019, and a zero-inflated negative binomial-latent class growth model (ZINB-LCGM) was established to describe the trajectory of the development of individual caries using the decayed missing filled teeth (DMFT) indicators. Results: DMFT of 12- to 16-year-old students in Liuyang were mainly decayed teeth (DT), with the majority occurring in the first permanent molar. According to the ZINB-LCGM model, the students were classified into three latent categories, "slow growth pattern" (28.55%), "rapid growth pattern" (6.59%), and "stable pattern" (64.86%), which followed different nonlinear caries growth trajectories. Females with deciduous teeth caries were more likely to have trajectories showing a “rapid growth pattern” and a “slow growth pattern”. There were significant differences in the trajectories between men and women, as well as between those with and without primary dentition caries. Conclusion The trajectory of the development of caries in 12-16-year-old students shows heterogeneity in terms of different developmental patterns of latent categories, suggesting that females with deciduous dental caries should receive more attention.