1.Application of ARIMA model in prediction of mortality rate of suicide in Hainan province.
Y LIU ; X M HU ; Y CHEN ; Z W FU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2018;39(5):664-668
Objective: To analyze the trend of suicide mortality in residents of Hainan province, and explore the application of time sequence model in the prediction of the mortality of suicide. Methods: The mortality data of suicide in residents of Hainan province between January, 2014 and December, 2016 were collected and analyzed with time sequence model and the mortality rate of suicide during January-June, 2017 in Hainan was predicted with the model. Results: During January, 2014 to June 2017, a total of 576 suicide cases were reported in Hainan, the mortality rate was 1.5/100 000. The established ARIMA model had good fitting for the suicide mortality in previous times and the prediction result was quite similar to the actual mortality, the predicted mortality rate was within the 95% confidence interval of the actual rate. Conclusion: The time sequence model for the prediction of suicide mortality in Hainan was "ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (0, 0, 0) (12)" , and the prediction effect of the model was better, which can be used to predict the suicide mortality in Hainan.
China/epidemiology*
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Humans
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Incidence
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Models, Statistical
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Mortality/trends*
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Suicide/trends*
2.Trends in Educational Differentials in Suicide Mortality between 1993 - 2006 in Korea.
Weon Young LEE ; Young Ho KHANG ; Manegseok NOH ; Jae In RYU ; Mia SON ; Yeon Pyo HONG
Yonsei Medical Journal 2009;50(4):482-492
PURPOSE: This study aims to examine how inequalities in suicide by education changed during and after macroeconomic restructuring following the economic crisis of 1997 in South Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Korea's 1995, 2000, and 2005 census data aggregately linked to mortality data (1993 - 2006), relative and absolute differentials in suicide mortality by education were calculated by gender and age among Korean population aged 35 and over. RESULTS: Average annual suicide mortality rates have steadily increased from 1993 - 1997 to 2003 - 2006 in almost all sociodemographic groups stratified by gender, age, and education. Based on the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII), educational differentials in suicide mortality generally increased over time in men and women aged 45 years +. Although RII did not increase with year among men and women aged 35 - 44 years, SII showed a significantly increasing trend in this age group. CONCLUSION: These worsening absolute inequalities in suicide mortality indicate that the governmental suicide prevention policy should be directed toward socially disadvantaged groups of the Korean population.
Adult
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Age Distribution
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Educational Status
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Female
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Humans
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Korea/epidemiology
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Male
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Mortality/*trends
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Sex Distribution
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Socioeconomic Factors
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Suicide/*statistics & numerical data
3.Trends in Educational Differentials in Suicide Mortality between 1993 - 2006 in Korea.
Weon Young LEE ; Young Ho KHANG ; Manegseok NOH ; Jae In RYU ; Mia SON ; Yeon Pyo HONG
Yonsei Medical Journal 2009;50(4):482-492
PURPOSE: This study aims to examine how inequalities in suicide by education changed during and after macroeconomic restructuring following the economic crisis of 1997 in South Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Korea's 1995, 2000, and 2005 census data aggregately linked to mortality data (1993 - 2006), relative and absolute differentials in suicide mortality by education were calculated by gender and age among Korean population aged 35 and over. RESULTS: Average annual suicide mortality rates have steadily increased from 1993 - 1997 to 2003 - 2006 in almost all sociodemographic groups stratified by gender, age, and education. Based on the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII), educational differentials in suicide mortality generally increased over time in men and women aged 45 years +. Although RII did not increase with year among men and women aged 35 - 44 years, SII showed a significantly increasing trend in this age group. CONCLUSION: These worsening absolute inequalities in suicide mortality indicate that the governmental suicide prevention policy should be directed toward socially disadvantaged groups of the Korean population.
Adult
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Age Distribution
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Educational Status
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Female
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Humans
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Korea/epidemiology
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Male
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Mortality/*trends
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Sex Distribution
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Socioeconomic Factors
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Suicide/*statistics & numerical data
4.The trend and geographic distribution of suicide in Chinese population.
Gong-huan YANG ; Ling-ni ZHOU ; Zheng-jing HUANG ; Ai-ping CHEN
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2004;25(4):280-284
OBJECTIVETo understand the specific patterns of suicide in Chinese population and its trend.
METHODSThe mortality level and trend of suicide in Chinese population by sex, age and areas were reviewed and the geographic distribution of suicide mortality was described using National Disease Surveillance Data in 1991 - 2000.
RESULTSDuring 1991 - 2000, the mortality rate of suicide was stable. Suicide was still one of the main health problems in Chinese population, especially in rural areas. The pattern of suicide in rural areas remained the same as reported before. The death rate of suicide attempts in female was higher than in male. There was a peak of death rate among rural people aged 15 - 34. However the death rate among rural women aged 15 - 34 was falling, which did not significantly affect the current suicide pattern.
CONCLUSIONSThere was high death rate of suicide in eastern and central rural areas, especially in boundaries among provinces, which could have been related to traditional culture, economic situation etc. Using pesticide as a tool of suicide was also an important factor with high death rate of suicide. These findings suggested that the specific pattern would last for another 20 years along with the social development and reform.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; China ; Data Collection ; Geography ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Sex Factors ; Suicide ; statistics & numerical data ; trends
5.The trend of injury epidemic in Ningxia.
Tianxi LIU ; Qing XIA ; Li LI ; Cheng LI
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine 2002;36(5):327-329
OBJECTIVETo study the epidemiological transition of injuries in Ningxia.
METHODSDemographic and mortality data during 1990s in Ningxia were collected and analyzed for temporal trend with linear regression model.
RESULTSDuring the past decade, mortality of injury raised by 28.22% among the residents in Ningxia and ranked the 3rd place in the causes of deaths. In 1999, the top four leading causes of injury deaths were traffic accident, suicide, drowning and poisoning. Overall injury mortality and mortalities of traffic accident and suicide increased, but mortality of drowning decreased during the past decade. As predicted, suicide will rank the 1st place in the causes of deaths among the residents in Ningxia by 2005.
CONCLUSIONSInjury was one of major risk factors influencing health and death among the residents in Ningxia, with a temporal trend in its incidence. Effective research, prevention and control of traffic accident, suicide, drowning and poisoning should be focused.
Accidents, Traffic ; Cause of Death ; China ; epidemiology ; Drowning ; Humans ; Mortality ; trends ; Poisoning ; Suicide ; Survival Rate ; Wounds and Injuries ; epidemiology ; mortality
6.Suicide in China: current status and suggestions for future work.
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2004;25(4):277-279
Age Factors
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China
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Female
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Forecasting
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Humans
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Male
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Research
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trends
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Research Design
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Risk Factors
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Rural Population
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Suicide
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prevention & control
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statistics & numerical data
7.Trends in suicide by poisoning in China 2000-2006: age, gender, method, and geography.
Xing ZHANG ; Hai-Shan LI ; Qiu-Hong ZHU ; Jing ZHOU ; Shuang ZHANG ; Lin ZHANG ; Cheng-Ye SUN
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2008;21(3):253-256
OBJECTIVEThis study analyzed patterns of suicide and suicide attempts by poisoning as reported through a national poison control system for the purpose of improving intervention and prevention.
METHODSDuring the period of 2000 to 2006, 6440 cases of poisoning suicide were reported to the telephone consultation service system of The National Center for Poisoning Control (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention). Among these records, 4728 cases had completed data for this analysis in terms of age, sex, trend of time and location, and type of poisons.
RESULTSThere were 60.6% female cases with the age from 10 to 90 years old. The age of cases from 20 to 39 years accounted for 54.5% of all age groups. Both the numbers and percentage in record related to poisoning consultation of oral poisoning suicide showed an increasing tendency during the 7 years. In particular, there was a drastic increase from 2004 to 2006. In addition, the high frequency of cases occurred from May to October. Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Anhui Provinces had the highest number of cases. Pesticide poisonings were the most common method in these cases of consultation for suicide and suicide attempts.
CONCLUSIONThis study describes epidemiological characteristics in the oral poisoning suicide cases and provides scientific basis for suicide prevention interventions.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Factors ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Child ; China ; epidemiology ; Female ; Geography ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Pesticides ; poisoning ; Poison Control Centers ; statistics & numerical data ; Poisoning ; epidemiology ; Sex Factors ; Suicide ; statistics & numerical data ; trends ; Suicide, Attempted ; statistics & numerical data ; trends ; Young Adult
8.Trend of Mortality Rate and Injury Burden of Transport Accidents, Suicides, and Falls.
Ki Sook KIM ; Soon Duck KIM ; Sang Hee LEE
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health 2012;45(1):8-13
OBJECTIVES: Recently injury has become a major world-wide health problem. But studies in Korea about injuries were very few. Thus, this study was conducted to analyze the trend of major injuries from 1991 to 2006 and to provide basic data for preventing injuries. METHODS: This study was based on the National Statistical Office data from 1991 to 2006 and calculated to estimate the burden of major injuries by using the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) and total lost earnings equation. RESULTS: For transport accidents, mortality, SEYLL and total lost earnings were increased from 1991 to 1996 and decreased from 2000 to 2006. On the other hand, for suicides, these were increased gradually. Since 2003, falls were included in ten leading causes of death. This study showed that injury causes major social and economical losses. CONCLUSIONS: We could reduce injury related premature death through active interest in injury prevention program.
Accident Prevention
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Accidental Falls/mortality/statistics & numerical data
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Accidents/*mortality/*statistics & numerical data
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Accidents, Traffic/mortality/statistics & numerical data
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Adolescent
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Adult
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Age Distribution
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Aged
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Aged, 80 and over
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Cause of Death/trends
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Child
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Female
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Humans
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Korea/epidemiology
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Male
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Middle Aged
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Mortality/*trends
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Sex Distribution
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Suicide/trends
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Wounds and Injuries/*epidemiology
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Young Adult
9.Suicide Rate Differences by Sex, Age, and Urbanicity, and Related Regional Factors in Korea.
Kyu Seok CHEONG ; Min Hyeok CHOI ; Byung Mann CHO ; Tae Ho YOON ; Chang Hun KIM ; Yu Mi KIM ; In Kyung HWANG
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health 2012;45(2):70-77
OBJECTIVES: Identify the characteristics related to the suicide rates in rural and urban areas of Korea and discover the factors that influence the suicide rate of the rural and urban areas. METHODS: Using the data on causes of death from 2006 to 2008, the suicide rates were calculated and compared after age-standardization based on gender, age group and urbanicity. And, in order to understand the factors that influence suicide rate, total 10 local characteristics in four domains - public service, social integration, residential environment, and economic status - were selected for multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: The suicide rates were higher in men than women, in rural areas than urban, and in older people than the younger. Generally, although there were variations according to age group and urbanicity, suicide rates were significantly related to residential environment and regional economic status but not related to regional welfare spending and social integration. In addition, the population over the age of 65 years, only regional economic status has significantly influence on their suicide rates. CONCLUSIONS: The influence of characteristics of regions on suicide rate is various by age-group, gender, and urbanicity. Therefore, in order to lower suicide rate and reduce the gap between regions, various approaches must be adopted by taking into account the socioeconomic characteristics of the regions.
Adolescent
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Adult
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Age Distribution
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Aged
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Cause of Death/trends
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle Aged
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Republic of Korea/epidemiology
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Residence Characteristics
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Rural Population/*statistics & numerical data
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Sex Distribution
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Socioeconomic Factors
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Suicide/*statistics & numerical data
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Urban Population/*statistics & numerical data
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Young Adult
10.Trends and Risk Factors of the Epidemic of Charcoal Burning Suicide in a Recent Decade among Korean People.
Nam Ju JI ; Yeon Pyo HONG ; Steven John STACK ; Weon Young LEE
Journal of Korean Medical Science 2014;29(8):1174-1177
The aims of this study were to analyze annual trends of charcoal burning (CB) suicide, 2000 to 2011, and to examine the risk factors of CB suicide in Korea. Data on suicides (n=138,938) were obtained from the Statistics Korea. The proportion of CB suicides among all suicide deaths reported was 0.7% (84 cases) in 2007, and since 2008 it has rapidly increased to 7.9% (1,251 cases) in 2011. Of significant risk factors of CB suicide, the presence of the media report of Ahn's suicide was the greatest risk factor (adjusted odds ratio, 11.69; 95% CI, 10.30-13.23) of the initial phase of the continuing CB suicides since 2008. Korean Government should urgently consider effective measures against CB suicide, including enforced media regulations on reporting such suicides.
Adolescent
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Adult
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Age Distribution
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Aged
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Aged, 80 and over
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Charcoal
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Child
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Female
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Humans
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Incidence
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Male
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Mass Media/*statistics & numerical data
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Middle Aged
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Republic of Korea/epidemiology
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Risk Assessment
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Risk Factors
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Sex Distribution
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Suicide/psychology/*statistics & numerical data/*trends
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Young Adult