INTRODUCTIONThis retrospective study was conducted to perform an external validation of the in vitro fertilisation (IVF) predict model developed by Scott Nelson et al in an Asian population.

MATERIALS AND METHODSAll IVF cycles registered in the study centre from January 2005 to December 2010 were included. Observed and predicted values of at least 1 live birth per cycle were compared by discrimination, calibration. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model calibration and Brier score was used to assess overall model performance.

RESULTSAmong 634 IVF cycles, rate of at least 1 live birth was 30.6%. Causes of infertility were unexplained in 35.5% cases. Fifty-seven percent of women came for their first IVF treatment. First IVF cycle showed significantly higher success in comparison to subsequent cycles. The odds ratio of successful live birth was worse in women with endometriosis. Observed outcome was found to be more than the prediction of the model. The area under the curve (AUC) in this study was found to be 0.65 that was close to that of Nelson model (0.6335) done in internal validation. Brier score (average prediction error) of model was 0.2. Chi square goodness-of-fit test indicated that there was difference between the predicted and observed value (x² =18.28, df = 8, P = 0.019). Overall statistical findings indicated that the accuracy of the prediction model fitted poorly with the study population.

CONCLUSIONOvarian reserve, treatment centre and racial effect on predictability cannot be excluded. So it is important to make a good prediction model by considering the additional factors before using the model widely.

Adolescent ; Adult ; Anovulation ; complications ; Area Under Curve ; Asian Continental Ancestry Group ; Endometriosis ; complications ; Fallopian Tube Diseases ; complications ; Female ; Fertilization in Vitro ; Humans ; Infertility, Female ; etiology ; therapy ; Infertility, Male ; therapy ; Live Birth ; Male ; Maternal Age ; Odds Ratio ; Pregnancy ; Pregnancy Rate ; Reproducibility of Results ; Reproductive History ; Retrospective Studies ; Singapore ; Treatment Outcome ; Young Adult

INTRODUCTION: Our study aimed to identify the factors associated with successful first-time radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment in patients with Graves' disease (GD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a restrospective study of patients with GD who were treated with RAI. Treatment success was defined as onset of permanent hypothyroidism or euthyroidism after 1 dose of RAI at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: There were 388 GD patients who underwent RAI treatment between January 2014 and December 2015. Of these, 74% achieved treatment success. Median time to achieve permanent hypothyroidism was 2 months. Male gender, smoking, higher antithyroid drug dosage, lower thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level, large goitre size and TSH receptor antibody (TRAb) titre at time of RAI were significantly associated with treatment failure. Multivariate analysis showed that larger goitre size and higher TRAb titre were associated with lower first-time RAI success. CONCLUSION Larger goitre size and higher TRAb titre predict lower success of RAI therapy in GD patients. Treatment decisions and strategies should be customised for patients who present with these characteristics.