Objective: To analyze the characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in Urumqi City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2016 to 2023 and establish a prediction model, so as to provide the reference for air pollution prevention and control. Methods: PM2.5 monitoring data of Urumqi City from 2016 to 2023 were collected through the website of Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China. The changing trend of PM2.5 concentration was analyzed using temporal chart and seasonal index. PM2.5 monthly average concentrations from 2016 to 2023 were used to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the data in 2023 was fitted and compared with the actual values, using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to evaluate the effectiveness of the model, and PM2.5 monthly average concentration from 2024 to 2025 was predicted. Results: PM2.5 daily average concentration in Urumqi City showed a decreasing trend from 2016 to 2023 (rs=-0.239, P<0.001), with high seasonal indexes in January, February and December, indicating certain seasonal characteristics. The optional model was ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)12, with the value of Akaike information criterion, corrected Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion being 727.38, 727.88 and 737.10, respectively. PM2.5 monthly average concentration in 2023 was fitted and compared with the actual values, with an absolute error range of 0.31-7.45 μg/m3, a relative error range of 0.01-0.53, and MAPE of 14.42%. PM2.5 monthly average concentration in Urumqi City from 2024 to 2025 was predicted to be consistent with the trend from 2016 to 2023. Conclusions PM2.5 concentration in Urumqi City showed a tendency towards a decline from 2016 to 2023, and was relatively high in winter. ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0)12 can be used for short-term prediction of PM2.5 pollution in Urumqi City.

Objective: To construct a prediction model of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in middle-aged and elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), so as to provide basis for early screening and prevention of T2DM complicated with NAFLD. Methods: Patients aged 45 years and above and diagnosed with T2DM in Karamay Hospital of People's Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in 2021 were collected as the study subjects. The data of general demographic characteristics and biochemical test results were collected. The patients were randomly divided into training group (n=3 241) and validation group (n=1 389) according to the ratio of 7∶3. LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression model were used to select predictive factors. The nomograph model for prediction of NAFLD risk in T2DM patients was established. The predictive value of the model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), adjusted curve and decision clinical analysis. Results: Totally 4 630 T2DM cases were included, including 1 279 cases (27.62%) complicated with NAFLD. LASSO regression and multivariable logistic regression analysis identified gender, age, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, alanine transaminase, triglycerides, low density lipoprotein cholesterol and platelet count as risk prediction factors for NAFLD in T2DM patients. The area under the ROC curve was 0.823 (95%CI: 0.814-0.832) for the training group and 0.809 (95%CI: 0.799-0.818) for the validation group, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fitting effect (P>0.05). Decision curve analysis showed higher net clinical benefit of using the predictive model to predict NAFLD risk when the risk threshold probability was 0.27 to 0.85. Conclusion The nomogram model established has a good predictive value for the risk of NAFLD in T2DM patients aged 45 years and above.

Objective To analyze projects completed at the end of 2017 and funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) in the field of skin and its appendages,in order to provide references for preparing concluding reports and making discipline development strategies in the future.Methods The concluding reports of projects completed at the end of 2017 and funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China in the field of skin and its appendages were collected from the Internet-based Science Information System.The achievements were analyzed,including journal articles,patents,talent training and monographs.Results A total of 91 projects were completed at the end of 2017 in the field of skin and its appendages,and the total cost of funds was 43.51 million RMB Yuan.A total of 452 journal articles were published,including 324 articles in the Science Citation Index (SCI)-indexed journals and 42 in the A Guide to the Core Journal of China-indexed journals.Additionally,0.74 SCI journal article and 0.10 Chinese core journal article could be produced per 100 000 RMB Yuan.The average impact factor of journals publishing these SCI articles was 3.972,and in average,100 000 RMB Yuan yielded 1 article in the journal with an impact factor of 2.92.Of the 324 published articles,46 and 102 were published in journals ranked within the first (Q1) and second (Q2) quartile,respectively,by Chinese Academy of Sciences.In all the SCI articles,14 were published in journals with impact factor of ＞ 10.There were 4 institutions with more than 5 completed projects,and a total of 129 (39.84％) SCI articles were published.Published SCI articles in the field of immune skin diseases accounted for the highest proportion (148/324,45.68％).A total of 152 talents were trained.Conclusions The support of NSFC in basic researches in the field of skin and its appendages has led to substantial achievements.More attention should be paid to the writing of concluding reports.Innovation consciousness should be raised,and project leaders should make more original and leading achievements in the future.

Objective To investigate the association between phage-mediated shiga toxin and molecular distribution of CRISPR in Escherichia (E.) coli O26:H11 or NM.Methods A total of 135 E.coli O26:H11 or NM strains were collected from NCBI database.Software CRT and CRISPR Finder were used to extract CRISPR and Excel was used to assign the spacer of unique number and type CRISPR.And the relationship between CRISPR and stx phage was analyzed.Results All the 135 E.coli O26:H11 or NM strains had the CRISPR.For CRISPRI,CRISPR2.1,CRISPR2.2 and CRISPR3-4,19,22,1 and 1 subtypes were found,respectively.According to the four CRISPR sites,the strains could be divided into 40 subtypes.Stx-phage was only observed in the group C of CRISPR.Compared with E.coli of stx-phage negative,E.coli with stx-phage harbored more spacers.Conclusions CRISPR loci was extensively existed in E.coli O26:H11 or NM,and many subtypes were found in these strains.The presence of stx-phage was related to the molecular distribution of CRISPR in E.coli O26:H11 or NM.CRISPR might be a valuable biomarker to identify strains with high virulent potential.

We analyzed the project results of preventive medicine from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) finished in 2017 based on the project-ending reports and data on science fund sharing service network. A total of 406 projects in this field were completed in 2017. A total of 3 122 published articles supported by these projects, including 1 789 articles in science citation index (SCI) journals and 525 articles in Chinese core journals. In addition, there were 224 patent application/software copyright and 589 trained postgraduates. The top three sub-disciplines of project were non-communicable disease epidemiology, human nutrition and hygienic toxicology, accounting for 45.32% of the total number of completed projects. There were 12 institutions which had more than 10 finished projects, accounting for 41.87%. During the recent 5 years, the number of SCI articles and patents/software copyrights per project showed a general uptrend. It should be noted that the number of articles in Chinese core journals and postgraduates decreased in recent two years. Our analyses demonstrated that the project results should be guided by the new era policy of science fund to promote sustainable development of scientific research.

Molecular epidemiology,a branch of epidemiology,combines the theories and methods,both in epidemiology and molecular biology.Molecular epidemiology mainly focuses on biological markers,describing the distribution,occurrence,development and prognosis of diseases at the molecular level.The completion of Human Genome Project and rapid development of Precision Medicine and Big Data not only offer the new development opportunities but also bring about a higher demand and new challenge for molecular epidemiology.

Objective:To analyze the characteristics of COVID-19 case spectrum and spread intensity in different provinces in China except Hubei province.Methods:The daily incidence data and case information of COVID-19 were collected from the official websites of provincial and municipal health commissions. The morbidity rate, severity rate, case-fatality rate, and spread ratio of COVID-19 were calculated.Results:As of 20 March, 2020, a total of 12 941 cases of COVID-19 had been conformed, including 116 deaths, and the average morbidity rate, severity rate and case-fatality rate were 0.97/100 000, 13.5 % and 0.90 %, respectively. The morbidity rates in Zhejiang (2.12/100 000), Jiangxi (2.01/100 000) and Beijing (1.93/100 000) ranked top three. The characteristics of COVID-19 case spectrum varied from province to province. The first three provinces (autonomous region, municipality) with high severity rates were Tianjin (45.6 %), Xinjiang (35.5 %) and Heilongjiang (29.5 %). The case-fatality rate was highest in Xinjiang (3.95 %), followed by Hainan (3.57 %) and Heilongjiang (2.70 %). The average spread ratio was 0.98 and the spread intensity varied from province to province. Tibet had the lowest spread ratio (0), followed by Qinghai (0.20) and Guangdong (0.23). Conclusion:The intervention measures were effective in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and improved treatment effect in China. However, there were significant differences among different regions in severity, case-fatality rate and spread ratio.

Since December 2019, Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19), a new emerging infection disease occurred in Wuhan, has spread in 27 countries and regions. The clusters of many cases were reported with the epidemic progresses. We collected currently available information for 377 COVID-19 clusters (1 719 cases), excluded the hospital clusters and Hubei cases, during the period from January 1, 2020 to February 20, 2020. There were 297 family clusters (79%), case median 4; 39 clusters of dining (10%), case median 5; 23 clusters of shopping malls or supermarkets (6%), case median 13; 12 clusters of work units (3%), case median 6, and 6 clusters of transportation. We selected 325 cases to estimate the incubation period and found its range is 1 to 20 days, median was 7 days, and mode was 4 days. The analysis of the epidemic situation in a department store in China indicates that there is a possibility of patients as the source of infection during the incubation period of the epidemic. From February 5, 2020 to February 21, 2020, 634 persons were infected in the Diamond Princess Liner. All persons are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. The older, patients during the incubation period and the worse environment may be the cause of the cases rising. The progress of the two typical outbreaks clearly demonstrates the spread of the early cases in Wuhan. Whatever happens, screening and isolating close contacts remains essential except for clinical treatment during the epidemic. Especially for the healthy people in the epidemic area, isolation is the key.