Objective: To construct a prognostic model for unsuccessful removal of nasogastric tube (NGT) was the aim of our study. Methods: This study examined patients with swallowing disorders receiving NGT feeding due to stroke or traumatic brain injury in a regional hospital. Clinical data was collected, such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), level of activities of daily living (ADLs) dependence. Additionally, gather information regarding the enhancement in Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS) levels and the increase in food types according to the International Dysphagia Diet Standardization Initiative (IDDSI) after one month of swallowing training. A stepwise logistic regression analysis model was employed to predict NGT removal failure using these parameters. Results: Out of 203 patients, 53 patients (26.1%) had experienced a failed removal of NGT after six months of follow-up. The strongest predictors for failed removal were age over 60 years, underweight BMI, total dependence in ADLs, and ischemic stroke. The admission prediction model categorized patients into high, moderate, and low-risk groups for removal failure. The failure rate of NGT removal was high not only in the high-risk group but also in the moderate-risk groups when there was no improvement in FOIS levels and IDDSI food types. Conclusion Our predictive model categorizes patients with brain insults into risk groups for swallowing disorders, enabling advanced interventions such as percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy for high-risk patients struggling with NGT removal, while follow-up assessments using FOIS and IDDSI aid in guiding rehabilitation decisions for those at moderate risk.