Purpose/Significance To investigate the application of cutting-edge technologies in predicting the incidence of hemor-rhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS),to compile and integrate various time-series analysis methods,evaluate and select the opti-mal model.Method/Process By utilizing national HFRS incidence data from 2004 to 2020,the effectiveness of models is predicted based on statistical methods:SARIMA,STL-ARIMA and TBATS,neural network approaches:NNAR,LSTM and combined models of SARIMA-LSTM with 3 different weighting schemes.The performance of these models is comprehensively assessed using RMSE,MAE and MAPE.Result/Conclusion The SARIMA and LSTM models are identified as the superior individual models.The combined SARI-MA-LSTM model demonstrates enhanced performance compared to individual models.The SARIMA-LSTM model optimized using the reciprocal of error method is deemed the optimal model.The optimal model is expected to provide technical support and references for the early warning system model design of HFRS.

Objective:To identify the clinical significance of CDK5 in colon cancer tissues.Methods:Two hundred colon cancer tissues were tested for CDK5 expression by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. The correlation between CDK5 expression and clinicopathological features, prognosis and peripheral inflammation-related cells was analyzed.Results:CDK5 was low expressed in 100 cases (50.0%), and high in another 100 cases (50.0%). Longer time to tumor progression ( P=0.026) and overall survival ( P=0.035) were observed in patients with high CDK5 expression. By multivariate analysis , the expression of CDK5 was an independent risk factor for poor prognosis ( HR=0.45,95% CI: 0.21-0.99, P=0.049). The expression of CDK5 was not related to the counts of white blood cells and neutrophils ( P>0.05). Prognosis of patients with a positive lymph node ratio less than 0.15 was significantly better than that of patients with a higher lymph node ratio ( P<0.001). Conclusions:Patients with low CDK5 expression have poor prognosis, and CDK5 expression is not related to the counts of peripheral white blood cells and neutrophils.

Objective:To conduct meta analysis to compare the effect of complete resection with or without postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) on survival in stage Ⅲ(N 2) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods:Relevant studies of the efficacy of PORT for stage Ⅲ(N 2) NSCLC were searched from Wanfang Data, PubMed, and Cochrane Library from January 2006 to January 2022. Literature screening, extraction of information and assessment of the risk of bias of the included literature was carried out by two independent researchers. Meta analysis was performed using R4.0.3 software. Results:A total of 12 publications consisting of 2992 patients were included, 1479 cases in the PORT group and 1513 cases in the control group. PORT improved the overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) compared to the control group. Fixed-effects model meta analysis of 6 randomized controlled trials showed that PORT did not significantly reduce the risk of death ( HR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.80-1.20). Fixed-effects model meta analysis of 6 retrospective studies showed that PORT improved prognosis ( HR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.59-0.79). PORT could improve OS of patients with multiple (station) metastasis of ipsilateral mediastinum and / or submandibular lymph nodes ( HR=0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99). Conclusions:PORT could improve OS and DFS in stage Ⅲ(N 2) NSCLC. A trend towards benefit can be observed in the subgroup with multiple/multi-station N2 metastasis.

Objective To understand the prevalence of diseases among the elderly in China and the main influencing factors on their ability to live independently in the community, so as to carry out comprehensive assessment and screening of the elderly in the community and achieve healthy aging. Methods The impact of diseases on the health of the elderly in China was quantified through indicators such as disability-adjusted life years, thereby assessing the changing trend of disease burden. Results The disease burden of chronic diseases and injuries is increasing year by year and has become the main disease burden for the elderly. Cardiovascular disease and cancer have the highest proportion of disability-adjusted life years year-round. Disability-adjusted life years for musculoskeletal diseases, traffic injuries, and accidental injuries increased significantly. The incidence of falls and road injuries in the elderly is increasing year by year. The prevalence of oral diseases has always been high and the disability-adjusted life years caused by them have been increasing year by year. At the same time, there are gender differences in prevalence rates and disability-adjusted life years among the elderly. Conclusion Comprehensive assessment of the elderly and timely intervention should be carried out extensively in the community, so as to detect potential problems and functional defects of the elderly early, reduce falls, disability, cognitive impairment, depression and other problems, and at the same time pay attention to the oral health of the elderly and improve their health. People's oral health care knowledge, publicize and popularize correct oral health care habits. Actively promote geriatric medicine education and encourage the whole society to participate in maximizing the maintenance of the functional status and quality of life of the elderly.