1.Effects and mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure
Meiling MAO ; Jianqi LU ; Zhide ZHU ; Yan PANG ; Liyu XIE ; Jiayong CHEN ; Xinyu WU ; Xiang XIAO ; Junshen LU ; Weiqi SHI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(2):160-165
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group, Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups (12.25, 24.50 g/kg, calculated by crude drug), and chemical medicine group (Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets, 10.42 mg/kg), with 10 rats in each group; control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication, the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in serum and phosphatidic acid (PA) and cardiolipin (CL) in myocardial tissue were all detected; the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed; the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined; the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed; the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 (Mfn1), Mfn2, optic atrophy protein 1 (OPA1) and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group,the serum content of NT-proBNP, apoptotic rate of myocardial cells, and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly; serum content of ATP,contents of PA and CL, and relative expressions of Mfn1, Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced (P<0.05). There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue, degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells, and severe fibrosis; the mitochondria were swollen, with reduced or absent cristae, and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction, the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats (excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group) were significantly reversed (P<0.05); the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved, fibrosis had significantly reduced, mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal, cristae had increased, and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats, thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis, the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.
2.Effects and mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure
Meiling MAO ; Jianqi LU ; Zhide ZHU ; Yan PANG ; Liyu XIE ; Jiayong CHEN ; Xinyu WU ; Xiang XIAO ; Junshen LU ; Weiqi SHI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(2):160-165
OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group, Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups (12.25, 24.50 g/kg, calculated by crude drug), and chemical medicine group (Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets, 10.42 mg/kg), with 10 rats in each group; control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication, the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) in serum and phosphatidic acid (PA) and cardiolipin (CL) in myocardial tissue were all detected; the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed; the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined; the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed; the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 (Mfn1), Mfn2, optic atrophy protein 1 (OPA1) and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group,the serum content of NT-proBNP, apoptotic rate of myocardial cells, and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly; serum content of ATP,contents of PA and CL, and relative expressions of Mfn1, Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced (P<0.05). There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue, degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells, and severe fibrosis; the mitochondria were swollen, with reduced or absent cristae, and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction, the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats (excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group) were significantly reversed (P<0.05); the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved, fibrosis had significantly reduced, mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal, cristae had increased, and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats, thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis, the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.
3.Evaluation of the performance of the artificial intelligence - enabled snail identification system for recognition of Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni and Tricula
Jihua ZHOU ; Shaowen BAI ; Liang SHI ; Jianfeng ZHANG ; Chunhong DU ; Jing SONG ; Zongya ZHANG ; Jiaqi YAN ; Andong WU ; Yi DONG ; Kun YANG
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2025;37(1):55-60
Objective To evaluate the performance of the artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled snail identification system for recognition of Oncomelania hupensis robertsoni and Tricula in schistosomiasis-endemic areas of Yunnan Province. Methods Fifty O. hupensis robertsoni and 50 Tricula samples were collected from Yongbei Township, Yongsheng County, Lijiang City, a schistosomiasis-endemic area in Yunnan Province in May 2024. A total of 100 snail sample images were captured with smartphones, including front-view images of 25 O. hupensis robertsoni and 25 Tricula samples (upward shell opening) and back-view images of 25 O. hupensis robertsoni and 25 Tricula samples (downward shell opening). Snail samples were identified as O. hupensis robertsoni or Tricula by schistosomiasis control experts with a deputy senior professional title and above according to image quality and morphological characteristics. A standard dataset for snail image classification was created, and served as a gold standard for recognition of snail samples. A total of 100 snail sample images were recognized with the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system based on a WeChat mini program in smartphones. Schistosomiasis control professionals were randomly sampled from stations of schistosomisis prevention and control and centers for disease control and prevention in 18 schistosomiasis-endemic counties (districts, cities) of Yunnan Province, for artificial identification of 100 snail sample images. All professionals are assigned to two groups according the median years of snail survey experiences, and the effect of years of snail survey experiences on O. hupensis robertsoni sample image recognition was evaluated. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted, and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, Youden’s index and the area under the curve (AUC) of the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification were calculated for recognition of snail sample images. The snail sample image recognition results of AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification were compared with the gold standard, and the internal consistency of artificial identification results was evaluated with the Cronbach’s coefficient alpha. Results A total of 54 schistosomiasis control professionals were sampled for artificial identification of snail sample image recognition, with a response rate of 100% (54/54), and the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Youden’s index, and AUC of artificial identification were 90%, 86%, 94%, 0.80 and 0.90 for recognition of snail sample images, respectively. The overall Cronbach’s coefficient alpha of artificial identification was 0.768 for recognition of snail sample images, and the Cronbach’s coefficient alpha was 0.916 for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni snail sample images and 0.925 for recognition of Tricula snail sample images. The overall accuracy of artificial identification was 90% for recognition of snail sample images, and there was no significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni (86%) and Tricula snail sample images (94%) (χ2 = 1.778, P > 0.05). There was no significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images with upward (88%) and downward shell openings (92%) (χ2 = 0.444, P > 0.05), and there was a significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images between schistosomiasis control professionals with snail survey experiences of 6 years and less (75%) and more than 6 years (90%) (χ2 = 7.792, P < 0.05). The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and AUC of the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system were 88%, 100%, 76% and 0.88 for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni snail sample images, and there was no significant difference in the accuracy of recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni snail sample images between the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification (χ2 = 0.204, P > 0.05). In addition, there was no significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images with upward (90%) and downward shell openings (86%) (χ2 = 0.379, P > 0.05), and there was a significant difference in the accuracy of artificial identification for recognition of snail sample images between schistosomiasis control professionals with snail survey experiences of 6 years and less and more than 6 years (χ2 = 5.604, Padjusted < 0.025). Conclusions The accuracy of recognition of snail sample images is comparable between the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system and artificial identification by schistosomiasis control professionals, and the AI-enabled intelligent snail identification system is feasible for recognition of O. hupensis robertsoni and Tricula in Yunnan Province.
4.Comparison of multiple machine learning models for predicting the survival of recipients after lung transplantation
Lingzhi SHI ; Yaling LIU ; Haoji YAN ; Zengwei YU ; Senlin HOU ; Mingzhao LIU ; Hang YANG ; Bo WU ; Dong TIAN ; Jingyu CHEN
Organ Transplantation 2025;16(2):264-271
Objective To compare the performance and efficacy of prognostic models constructed by different machine learning algorithms in predicting the survival period of lung transplantation (LTx) recipients. Methods Data from 483 recipients who underwent LTx were retrospectively collected. All recipients were divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The 24 collected variables were screened based on variable importance (VIMP). Prognostic models were constructed using random survival forest (RSF) and extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost). The performance of the models was evaluated using the integrated area under the curve (iAUC) and time-dependent area under the curve (tAUC). Results There were no significant statistical differences in the variables between the training set and the validation set. The top 15 variables ranked by VIMP were used for modeling and the length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) was determined as the most important factor. Compared with the XGBoost model, the RSF model demonstrated better performance in predicting the survival period of recipients (iAUC 0.773 vs. 0.723). The RSF model also showed better performance in predicting the 6-month survival period (tAUC 6 months 0.884 vs. 0.809, P = 0.009) and 1-year survival period (tAUC 1 year 0.896 vs. 0.825, P = 0.013) of recipients. Based on the prediction cut-off values of the two algorithms, LTx recipients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. The survival analysis results of both models showed that the survival rate of recipients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (P<0.001). Conclusions Compared with XGBoost, the machine learning prognostic model developed based on the RSF algorithm may preferably predict the survival period of LTx recipients.
5.Analysis of the availability of bronchodilators listed in the medical insurance catalog for treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in community health service centers in Shanghai
Hui DENG ; Qundi YANG ; Han WU ; Danni LIU ; Xuena LA ; Yang ZHENG ; Yan SHI
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(5):390-396
ObjectiveTo assess the availability of bronchodilators for treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in community health service centers (CHCs) in Shanghai. MethodsOn the basis of previous research, the questionnaire was updated, and surveys were conducted from April to May 2023 in CHCs in Shanghai, with a focus on the availability of medications for COPD treatment. According to the National Basic Medical Insurance, Work Injury Insurance, and Maternity Insurance Drug List (2023 Edition), a total of 24 types of bronchodilators for COPD treatment were identified. The availability rates were used to assess the accessibility of specific drugs in CHCs, and the dispensing rates were used to evaluate the variety of these medications in CHCs. ResultsA total of 248 CHCs responded, with a response rate of 100.0%. Among them, a total of 232 CHCs (93.5%) were equipped with bronchodilators. In terms of availability rates, the availability rates for β2 adrenoreceptor agonists, muscarinic antagonists, combination drugs, and xanthines drugs were 86.3%, 52.0%, 52.4%, and 85.1%, respectively. Regional differences were observed, in that salbutamol/levalbuterol and budesonide-formoterol were less available in suburban CHCs, ipratropium bromide had lower availability in urban CHCs, and aminophylline was more available in suburban CHCs. Regarding the dispensing rates of the 24 types of bronchodilators for COPD treatment, the median of types equipped by CHCs was 5, with a total of 200 CHCs (80.6%) equipped with fewer than 7 types of bronchodilator drugs. ConclusionThe proportion of CHCs in Shanghai equipped with bronchodilators for COPD is relatively high. However, there exist problems such as limited variety of stocked medications, significant differences in the availability of different drugs, and regional imbalances in drug stocking. To improve the standardized diagnosis, treatment, and management of COPD patients, it is recommended to enhance the availability of COPD treatment medications in CHCs.
6.Effect of Maxing Loushi Decoction on Inflammatory Factors, Immune Function, and PD-1/PD-L1 Signaling Pathway in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease with Phlegm Turbidity Obstructing Lung Syndrome
Yuexin SHI ; Zhi YAO ; Jun YAN ; Caijun WU ; Li LI ; Yuanzhen JIAN ; Guangming ZHENG ; Yanchen CAO ; Haifeng GUO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):143-150
ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy of Maxing Loushi decoction in the treatment of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) with phlegm turbidity obstructing lung syndrome, and to investigate its effects on inflammatory factors, immune function, and the programmed death-1(PD-1)/programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) signaling pathway. MethodsA randomized controlled study was conducted, enrolling 90 hospitalized patients with AECOPD and phlegm turbidity obstructing lung syndrome in the Respiratory and Emergency Departments of Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, from April 2024 to December 2024. Patients were randomly assigned to a control group and an observation group using a random number table, with 45 patients in each group. The control group received conventional Western medical treatment, while the observation group received additional Maxing Loushi decoction for 14 days. Clinical efficacy, COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score, modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale (mMRC), 6-minute walk test (6MWT), serum inflammatory factors, T lymphocyte subsets, and serum PD-1/PD-L1 levels were compared between the two groups before and after treatment. ResultsThe total clinical effective rate was 78.57% (33/42) in the control group and 95.35% (41/43) in the observation group, with the observation group showing significantly higher efficacy than that of the control group. The difference was statistically significant (χ2 = 5.136, P<0.05). After treatment, both groups showed significant reductions in CAT and mMRC scores (P<0.05, P<0.01) and significant increases in 6MWT compared to baseline (P<0.01). The observation group demonstrated significantly greater improvements than the control group in this regard. Levels of inflammatory markers including C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1(MCP-1), and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α) were significantly reduced in both groups (P<0.05, P<0.01), with greater reductions in the observation group (P<0.05, P<0.01). CD8+ levels were significantly reduced (P<0.01), while CD3+, CD4+, and CD4+/CD8+ levels were significantly increased in both groups after treatment (P<0.05, P<0.01), with more significant improvements observed in the observation group (P<0.05, P<0.01). Serum PD-1 levels were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), and PD-L1 levels were increased significantly in both groups after treatment (P<0.05, P<0.01), with more pronounced changes in the observation group (P<0.05). ConclusionMaxing Loushi decoction demonstrates definite therapeutic efficacy as an adjunctive treatment for patients with AECOPD and phlegm turbidity obstructing lung syndrome. It contributes to reducing serum inflammatory factors, improving immune function, and regulating the PD-1/PD-L1 signaling pathway.
7.Effect of Maxing Loushi Decoction on Inflammatory Factors, Immune Function, and PD-1/PD-L1 Signaling Pathway in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease with Phlegm Turbidity Obstructing Lung Syndrome
Yuexin SHI ; Zhi YAO ; Jun YAN ; Caijun WU ; Li LI ; Yuanzhen JIAN ; Guangming ZHENG ; Yanchen CAO ; Haifeng GUO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2025;31(17):143-150
ObjectiveTo evaluate the clinical efficacy of Maxing Loushi decoction in the treatment of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) with phlegm turbidity obstructing lung syndrome, and to investigate its effects on inflammatory factors, immune function, and the programmed death-1(PD-1)/programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) signaling pathway. MethodsA randomized controlled study was conducted, enrolling 90 hospitalized patients with AECOPD and phlegm turbidity obstructing lung syndrome in the Respiratory and Emergency Departments of Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, from April 2024 to December 2024. Patients were randomly assigned to a control group and an observation group using a random number table, with 45 patients in each group. The control group received conventional Western medical treatment, while the observation group received additional Maxing Loushi decoction for 14 days. Clinical efficacy, COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score, modified Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale (mMRC), 6-minute walk test (6MWT), serum inflammatory factors, T lymphocyte subsets, and serum PD-1/PD-L1 levels were compared between the two groups before and after treatment. ResultsThe total clinical effective rate was 78.57% (33/42) in the control group and 95.35% (41/43) in the observation group, with the observation group showing significantly higher efficacy than that of the control group. The difference was statistically significant (χ2 = 5.136, P<0.05). After treatment, both groups showed significant reductions in CAT and mMRC scores (P<0.05, P<0.01) and significant increases in 6MWT compared to baseline (P<0.01). The observation group demonstrated significantly greater improvements than the control group in this regard. Levels of inflammatory markers including C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1(MCP-1), and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α (MIP-1α) were significantly reduced in both groups (P<0.05, P<0.01), with greater reductions in the observation group (P<0.05, P<0.01). CD8+ levels were significantly reduced (P<0.01), while CD3+, CD4+, and CD4+/CD8+ levels were significantly increased in both groups after treatment (P<0.05, P<0.01), with more significant improvements observed in the observation group (P<0.05, P<0.01). Serum PD-1 levels were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), and PD-L1 levels were increased significantly in both groups after treatment (P<0.05, P<0.01), with more pronounced changes in the observation group (P<0.05). ConclusionMaxing Loushi decoction demonstrates definite therapeutic efficacy as an adjunctive treatment for patients with AECOPD and phlegm turbidity obstructing lung syndrome. It contributes to reducing serum inflammatory factors, improving immune function, and regulating the PD-1/PD-L1 signaling pathway.
8.Clinical characteristics and prognosis of 28 cases of infant acute lymphoblastic leukemia
Yan SHI ; Yu LU ; Ruidong ZHANG ; Yuanyuan ZHANG ; Wei LIN ; Jiaole YU ; Ying WU ; Jia FAN ; Peijing QI ; Pengli HUANG ; Lixiao CAI ; Qian HUANG ; Pan ZHANG ; Yumei SUN ; Yan LIU ; Huyong ZHENG
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2024;62(1):49-54
Objective:To analyze the clinical characteristics and prognosis of patients with infant acute lymphoblastic leukemia (IALL).Methods:A retrospective cohort study.Clinical data, treatment and prognosis of 28 cases of IALL who have been treated at Beijing Children′s Hospital, Capital Medical University and Baoding Children′s Hospital from October 2013 to May 2023 were analyzed retrospectively. Based on the results of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), all patients were divided into KMT2A gene rearrangement (KMT2A-R) positive group and KMT2A-R negative group. The prognosis of two groups were compared. Kaplan-Meier method and Log-Rank test were used to analyze the survival of the patients.Results:Among 28 cases of IALL, there were 10 males and 18 females, with the onset age of 10.9 (9.4,11.8) months. In terms of immune classification, 25 cases were B-ALL (89%), while the remaining 3 cases were T-ALL (11%). Most infant B-ALL showed pro-B lymphocyte phenotype (16/25,64%). A total of 22 cases (79%) obtained chromosome karyotype results, of which 7 were normal karyotypes, no complex karyotypes and 15 were abnormal karyotypes were found. Among abnormal karyotypes, there were 4 cases of t (9; 11), 2 cases of t (4; 11), 2 cases of t (11; 19), 1 case of t (1; 11) and 6 cases of other abnormal karyotypes. A total of 19 cases (68%) were positive for KMT2A-R detected by FISH. The KMT2A fusion gene was detected by real-time PCR in 16 cases (57%). A total of 24 patients completed standardized induction chemotherapy and were able to undergo efficacy evaluation, 23 cases (96%) achieved complete remission through induction chemotherapy, 4 cases (17%) died of relapse. The 5-year event free survival rate (EFS) was (46±13)%, and the 5-year overall survival rate (OS) was (73±10)%.The survival time was 31.3 (3.3, 62.5) months. There was no significant statistical difference in 5-year EFS ((46±14)% vs. (61±18)%) and 5-year OS ((64±13)% vs. (86±13)%) between the KMT2A-R positive group (15 cases) and the KMT2A-R negative group (9 cases) ( χ2=1.88, 1.47, P=0.170, 0.224). Conclusions:Most IALL patients were accompanied by KMT2A-R. They had poor tolerance to traditional chemotherapy, the relapse rate during treatment was high and the prognosis was poor.
9.Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical smoking cessation intervention in China primary cancer prevention
Peiyuan SUN ; Yuting XIE ; Ranran QIE ; Huang HUANG ; Zhuolun HU ; Mengyao WU ; Qi YAN ; Cairong ZHU ; Jufang SHI ; Kaiyong ZOU ; Yawei ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(1):66-75
Objectives:To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of typical pharmaceutical smoking cessation intervention strategies in China in the context of primary cancer prevention.Methods:Markov cohort simulation models were established to simulate the burden of 12 smoking caused cancer, including lung cancer, oral cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, pancreatic cancer, liver cancer, kidney cancer, bladder cancer, cervical cancer, and acute myeloid leukemia. Taking incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) as the main indicator, the model sets one year as the cycling period for 50 periods and simulates the cohort of 10 000 thirty-five-year-old current smokers with various smoking cessation strategies. To ensure the robustness of conclusion, univariate sensitivity analysis, probability sensitivity analysis, and age-group sensitivity analysis were conducted.Results:The results showed that varenicline intervention was the most cost-effective intervention. Compared to the next most effective option, incremental cost of each additional quality-adjusted life year is 11 140.28 yuan, which is below the threshold of willingness to pay (1 year GDP per capita). The value of ICER increased as the increasing age group of adopting intervention, but neither exceeded the threshold of willingness to pay. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the value of discount rate, the hazard ratio and cost of intervention strategy had a greater impact on the result of ICER.Conclusion:In China, the use of varenicline to quit smoking is highly cost effective in the context of cancer primary prevention, especially for younger smokers.
10.Construction and application of a risk index of Echinococcus infection based on the classification of echinococcosis lesions
Chuizhao XUE ; Canjun ZHENG ; Yan KUI ; Yue SHI ; Xu WANG ; Baixue LIU ; Weiping WU ; Shuai HAN
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2024;36(3):259-271
Objective To investigate the feasibility of constructing the risk index of Echinococcus infection based on the classification of echinococcosis lesions, so as to provide insights into the management of echinococcosis. Methods The imaging data of echinococcosis cases were collected from epidemiological surveys of echinococcosis in China from 2012 to 2016, and the detection of incident echinococcosis cases was captured from the annual echinococcosis prevention and control reports across provinces (autonomous regions) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in China from 2017 to 2022. After echinococcosis lesions were classified, a risk index of Echinococcus infection was constructed based on the principle of discrete distribution marginal probability and multi-group classification data tests. The correlation between the risk index of Echinococcus infection and the detection of incident echinococcosis cases was evaluated in the provinces (autonomous regions and corps) from 2017 to 2022, and the correlations between the short and medium-term risk indices and between the medium and long-term risk indices of Echinococcus infection were examined using a univariate linear regression model. Results A total of 4 014 echinococcosis cases in China from 2012 to 2016 were included in this study. The short-, medium- and long-term risk indices of E. granulosus infection varied in echinococcosis-endemic provinces (autonomous regions and corps) of China (χ2 = 4.12 to 708.65, all P values < 0.05), with high short- (0.058), medium- (0.137) and long-term risk indices (0.104) in Tibet Autonomous Region, and the short-, medium- and long-term risk indices of E. multilocularis infection varied in echinococcosis-endemic provinces (autonomous regions and corps) of China (χ2 = 6.74 to 122.60, all P values < 0.05), with a high short-term risk index in Sichuan Province (0.016) and high medium- (0.009) and long-term risk indices in Qinghai Province (0.018). There were no significant correlations between the risk index of E. granulosus infection and the detection of incident cystic echinococcosis cases during the study period (t = −0.518 to 2.265, all P values > 0.05), and strong correlations were found between the risk indices of E. multilocularis infection and the detection of incident alveolar echinococcosis cases (including mixed type) in 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, during the period from 2017 through 2020, from 2017 through 2021, from 2017 through 2022 (all r values > 0.7, t = 2.521 to 3.692, all P values < 0.05). Linear regression models were established between the risk index of E. multilocular infection and the detection of alveolar echinococcosis cases (including mixed type), and the models were all statistically significant (b = 0.214 to 2.168, t = 2.458 to 3.692, F = 6.044 to 13.629, all P values < 0.05). The regression coefficients for the correlations between the medium- and short-term, and between the long- and medium-term risk indices of E. granulosus infection were 2.339 and 0.765, and the regression coefficients for the correlations between the medium- and short-term, and between the long- and medium-term risk indices of E. multilocular infection were 0.280 and 1.842, with statistical significance seen in both the regression coefficients and regression models (t = 16.479 to 197.304, F = 271.570 to 38 928.860, all P values < 0.05). Conclusions The risk index of Echinococcus infection has been successfully established based on the classification of echinococcosis lesions, which may provide insights into the prevention and control, prediction, diagnosis and treatment, and classified management of echinococcosis.

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