Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed significant global public health challenges and created a substantial economic burden. Korea has experienced an extensive outbreak, which was linked to a religion-related super-spreading event. However, the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including social distancing, spring semester postponing, and extensive testing and contact tracing controlled the epidemic. Herein, we estimated the effectiveness of each NPI using a simulation model. Methods: A compartment model with a susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantinedhospitalized structure was employed. Using the Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain algorithm with Gibbs' sampling method, we estimated the time-varying effective contact rate to calibrate the model with the reported daily new confirmed cases from February 12th to March 31st (7 weeks). Moreover, we conducted scenario analyses by adjusting the parameters to estimate the effectiveness of NPI. Results: Relaxed social distancing among adults would have increased the number of cases 27.4-fold until the end of March. Spring semester non-postponement would have increased the number of cases 1.7-fold among individuals aged 0–19, while lower quarantine and detection rates would have increased the number of cases 1.4-fold. Conclusion Among the three NPI measures, social distancing in adults showed the highest effectiveness. The substantial effect of social distancing should be considered when preparing for the 2nd wave of COVID-19.

PURPOSE: The Trastuzumab for gastric cancer (GC) trial identified human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) as a predictor of successful treatment with trastuzumab (HER2 receptor targeting agent) among patients with advanced/metastatic GC. To date, the prevalence of HER2 overexpression in the Korean population is unknown. The present study aimed to assess the incidence of HER2 positivity among GC and gastroesophageal (GE) junction cancer samples and the relationship between HER2 overexpression and clinicopathological characteristics in Korean patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Tumor samples collected from 1,695 patients with histologically proven GC or GE junction enrolled at 14 different hospitals in Korea were examined. After gathering clinicopathological data of all patients, HER2 status was assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) at each hospital, and IHC 2+ cases were subjected to silver-enhanced in situ hybridization at 3 central laboratories. RESULTS: A total of 182 specimens tested positive for HER2, whereas 1,505 tested negative. Therefore, the overall HER2-positive rate in this study was 10.8% (95% confidence interval: 9.3%–12.3%). The HER2-positive rate was higher among intestinal-type cases (17.6%) than among other types, and was higher among patients older than 70 years and 50 years of age, compared to other age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our evaluation of the HER2 positivity rate (10.8%) among Korean patients with GC and GE junction indicated the necessity of epidemiological data when conducting studies related to HER2 expression in GC and GE junction.
Epidemiologic Studies* ; Epidermal Growth Factor* ; Humans* ; Immunohistochemistry ; In Situ Hybridization ; Incidence ; Korea ; Prevalence ; Receptor, Epidermal Growth Factor* ; Receptor, ErbB-2 ; Stomach Neoplasms* ; Trastuzumab