BACKGROUND: The objevctive of the present study was to explore the potential influence of blood markers and patient factors such as risk factors, kidney function profile, coagulation profile, lipid profile, body mass index, blood pressure, and vein diameter on the maturation of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) in patients with end-stage renal disease. METHODS: Retrospective data from 300 patients who had undergone AVF creation at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh were examined. A predictive logistic regression model was developed using a backward stepwise procedure. Model performance, discrimination, and calibration were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The final model was externally validated by 100 prospective patients who received a new fistula at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh. RESULTS: A total of 400 (300 retrospective and 100 prospective) patients were recruited for this study, with a mean age of 60.14 ± 15.9 years (development set) and 58 ± 15 years (validation set), respectively (P = 0.208). Study results showed that males were twice as likely to undergo fistula maturation as females, while patients with no evidence of peripheral vascular disease (PVD) were three times more likely to mature their fistula and a preoperative vein diameter > 2.5 mm resulted in a fivefold increase in fistula maturation as compared with a vein size of less than 2.5 mm. The model for fistula maturation had fair discrimination, as indicated by the area under the ROC curve (0.68), but good calibration as indicated by the Hosmer–Lemeshow test (P = 0.79). The area under the receiver operating curve for the validation model in the validation set was 0.59. Similarly, in the validation set, the Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic indicated an agreement between the observed and predicted probabilities of maturation (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Gender, PVD, and vein size are independent predictors of AVF maturation. The clinical utility of these risk categories in the maturation of AVF requires further evaluation in longer follow-up.
Arteriovenous Fistula* ; Blood Pressure ; Body Mass Index ; Calibration ; Discrimination (Psychology) ; Female ; Fistula ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Kidney ; Kidney Failure, Chronic* ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Peripheral Vascular Diseases ; Prospective Studies ; Renal Dialysis ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; ROC Curve ; Veins

Introduction: There is a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) in the Western Province, Papua New Guinea. This study aims to describe the spatial distribution of TB in the Balimo District Hospital (BDH) catchment area to identify TB patient clusters and factors associated with high rates of TB. Methods: Information about TB patients was obtained from the BDH TB patient register for the period 26 April 2013 to 25 February 2017. The locations of TB patients were mapped, and the spatial scan statistic was used to identify high- and low-rate TB clusters in the BDH catchment area. Results: A total of 1568 patients were mapped with most being from the Balimo Urban (n = 252), Gogodala Rural (n = 1010) and Bamu Rural (n = 295) local level government (LLG) areas. In the Gogodala region (Balimo Urban and Gogodala Rural LLGs), high-rate clusters occurred closer to the town of Balimo, while low-rate clusters were located in more remote regions. In addition, closer proximity to Balimo was a predictor of high-rate clustering. Discussion There is heterogeneity in the distribution of TB in the Balimo region. Active case-finding activities indicated potential underdiagnosis of TB and the possibility of associated missed diagnoses of TB. The large BDH catchment area emphasizes the importance of the hospital in managing TB in this rural region.