BACKGROUND: Predicting adverse health events and implementing preventative measures are a necessary challenge. It is important for healthcare planners and policymakers to allocate the limited resource to high-risk persons. Prediction is also important for older individuals, their family members, and clinicians to prepare mentally and financially. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for within 11-year dependent status requiring long-term nursing care or death in older adults for each sex. METHODS: We carried out age-specified cohort study of community dwellers in Nisshin City, Japan. The older adults aged 64 years who underwent medical check-up between 1996 and 2000 were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence of the psychophysically dependent status or death or by the end of the year of age 75 years. Univariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between candidate predictors and the outcome. Using the variables with p-values less than 0.1, multivariable logistic regression analyses were then performed with backward stepwise elimination to determine the final predictors for the model. RESULTS: Of the 1525 female participants at baseline, 105 had an incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 15 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.714-0.813). Of the 1548 male participants at baseline, 211 had incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 16 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.735 (95% CI 0.699-0.771). CONCLUSIONS We developed a prediction model for older adults to forecast 11-year incidence of dependent status requiring nursing care or death in each sex. The predictability was fair, but we could not evaluate the external validity of this model. It could be of some help for healthcare planners, policy makers, clinicians, older individuals, and their family members to weigh the priority of support.
Aged ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; Geriatric Assessment/statistics & numerical data* ; Humans ; Independent Living/statistics & numerical data* ; Japan ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Nursing Homes/statistics & numerical data* ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. METHODS: After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. RESULTS: We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. CONCLUSION: This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.
Efficiency ; Health Policy ; Italy* ; Jurisprudence ; Methods ; Occupational Health ; Risk Assessment* ; Statistics as Topic ; Telemedicine

OBJECTIVETo establish a non-parametric probabilistic model for evaluation of Chinese dietary exposure and to improve the assessment accuracy while integrating into the global risk assessment on food safety.

METHODSContamination data was from the national food contamination monitoring program during 2000 - 2006, including heavy metals, pesticides and mycotoxins, amounting to 135 contaminants with 499 commodities and 487 819 samples. Food consumption data was obtained from the national diet and nutrition survey conducted in 2002 with three consecutive days by 24-hour recall method, and 66 172 consumers were included. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to derive the intake distribution, and the uncertainty of each percentile was estimated using the Bootstrap sampling.

RESULTSDifferent non-parametric probabilistic models for dietary exposure evaluation on heavy metals, pesticides and some of the toxins were established for Chinese people, and intake distributions with 95% confidence intervals of these contaminants were estimated. Taking acephate as an example, the results of its model shows that, for the 7 - 10 year-old children, the median dietary exposure in urban and rural areas were 1.77 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) and 2.48 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively, with a 95% confidence interval of (1.59 - 2.06) microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) and (2.33 - 2.80) microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively.

CONCLUSIONThe non-parametric probabilistic model can quantify the variability and uncertainty of exposure assessment and improve the assessment accuracy.

China ; Consumer Product Safety ; Diet Surveys ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; Risk Assessment ; Statistics, Nonparametric

Coronary artery disease remains the leading cause of early death and graft loss in renal transplant patients. The aim of this study was to identify clinical and echocardiographic parameters independently associated with the angiographically-determined severity of coronary atherosclerosis in long-term kidney transplant patients. Fifty-two kidney transplant recipients who underwent elective coronary angiography were reviewed retrospectively. Angiographic severity was evaluated using the modified Gensini index (MGI). The mean age at coronary angiography was 52.5+/-7.9 yr with a mean prior transplant duration of 118.1+/-58.8 months. Pearson correlation analysis demonstrated a positive correlation of MGI with transplant duration before coronary angiography and chronic allograft nephropathy, whereas an inverse correlation was demonstrated with ejection fraction and statin use. On subsequent multivariate linear regression analysis, transplant duration before coronary angiography, statin use, and ejection fraction were independently associated with the severity of coronary atherosclerosis in long-term kidney transplant patients. In summary, our study demonstrates that statin use, ejection fraction, and transplant duration before coronary angiography are independent parameters associated with the severity of coronary atherosclerosis in long-term kidney transplant patients. Further investigation is required to reduce the atherosclerotic burden in kidney transplant patients.
Adult ; Comorbidity ; Coronary Artery Disease/*diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Kidney Transplantation/*statistics & numerical data ; Korea/epidemiology ; Male ; Renal Insufficiency/*epidemiology/*surgery ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Statistics as Topic

Hyperhidrosis is a disorder of perspiration in excess of the body's physiologic need and significantly impacts one's occupational, physical, emotional, and social life. The purpose of our study was to investigate the characteristics of primary hyperhidrosis in 255 patients at Ajou University Hospital Hyperhidrosis Center from March 2006, to February 2008. Information collected from the medical records was: sex, sites of hyperhidrosis, age at visit, age of onset, aggravating factors, hyperhidrosis disease severity scale (HDSS) rank, family history, occupation, and past treatment. A total of 255 patient records were reviewed; 57.6% were male. Patients with a family history (34.1%) showed a lower age of onset (13.21+/-5.80 yr vs. 16.04+/-9.83 yr in those without family history); 16.5% had previous treatment, most commonly oriental medicine. Palmar and plantar sites were the most commonly affected, and 87.9% of patients felt their sweating was intolerable and always interfered with their daily activities. Our study provides some original information on the Korean primary hyperhidrosis population. Patients who have a family history show signs of disease in early age than those without family history.
Academic Medical Centers/statistics & numerical data ; Adult ; Female ; Genetic Predisposition to Disease/*epidemiology/*genetics ; Hospitalization/*statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Hyperhidrosis/*epidemiology/*genetics ; Incidence ; Male ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors

Objective: To analyze the deaths attributable to alcohol use and its impact on people's life expectancy in China in 2013. Methods: The mortality data from the Disease Surveillance Points System and alcohol use data from China Chronic Disease Surveillance (2013) were used. The deaths attributed to alcohol use and its impact on the life expectancy of Chinese residents were estimated based on the principle of comparative risk assessment by calculating population attributable fraction. Results: In 2013, alcohol use resulted in 381 200 deaths, including 97 100 hemorrhagic stroke deaths, 88 200 liver cancer deaths, 61 400 liver cirrhosis deaths and 48 700 esophageal cancer deaths, and prevented 76 500 deaths, including 68 500, 4 900 and 3 100 deaths which might be caused by ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke and diabetes respectively. If risk factor of alcohol use is removed, the people's life expectancy would rise by an average of 0.43 years, especially in western China by 0.52 years, which was 0.12 years higher than that in eastern and central China, and the life expectancy of the population in rural and urban areas would rise by 0.48 years and 0.31 years respectively. Conclusions: Although alcohol has a protective effect on reducing ischemic heart disease, stroke and diabetes deaths, alcohol use is still a risk factor influencing the mortality and life expectancy of residents in China. It is necessary to take targeted measures to reduce the health problems caused by harmful use of alcohol.
Alcoholism/mortality* ; Cause of Death ; China/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Life Expectancy ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Rural Population/statistics & numerical data* ; Urban Population/statistics & numerical data*

OBJECTIVE: Device- or technique-related air embolism is a drawback of various neuro-endovascular procedures. Detachable aneurysm embolization coils can be sources of such air bubbles. We therefore assessed the formation of air bubbles during in vitro delivery of various detachable coils. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A closed circuit simulating a typical endovascular coiling procedure was primed with saline solution degassed by a sonification device. Thirty commercially available detachable coils (7 Axium, 4 GDCs, 5 MicroPlex, 7 Target, and 7 Trufill coils) were tested by using the standard coil flushing and delivery techniques suggested by each manufacturer. The emergence of any air bubbles was monitored with a digital microscope and the images were captured to measure total volumes of air bubbles during coil insertion and detachment and after coil pusher removal. RESULTS: Air bubbles were seen during insertion or removal of 23 of 30 coils (76.7%), with volumes ranging from 0 to 23.42 mm3 (median: 0.16 mm3). Air bubbles were observed most frequently after removal of the coil pusher. Significantly larger amounts of air bubbles were observed in Target coils. CONCLUSION: Variable volumes of air bubbles are observed while delivering detachable embolization coils, particularly after removal of the coil pusher and especially with Target coils.
Embolism, Air/*etiology ; Embolization, Therapeutic/*adverse effects/*instrumentation ; Intracranial Embolism/*etiology ; Magnetic Resonance Imaging/methods ; Microscopy ; Risk Assessment ; Statistics, Nonparametric

BACKGROUNDSeveral risk stratification models have been developed for cardiac surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of four existing risk stratification models, the Fuwai System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (FuwaiSCORE), the Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk model for isolated valve surgery (the STS model), the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and the initial Parsonnet's score (the Parsonnet model) in predicting prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay in Chinese patients undergoing heart valve surgery.

METHODSData were collected retrospectively from records of 1333 consecutive patients who received heart valve surgery in a single center between November 2006 and December 2007. Prolonged ICU stay was defined as not less than 124 hours. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness of fit test. Discrimination was assessed using the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve area.

RESULTSThe FuwaiSCORE showed good calibration and discrimination compared with other risk models. According to the H-L statistics, the value of the FuwaiSCORE was 12.82, P > 0.1. The area under ROC curve of the FuwaiSCORE was 0.81 (95%CI 0.78 - 0.84).

CONCLUSIONSOur study suggests that the FuwaiSCORE is superior to the other three risk models in predicting prolonged length of ICU stay in Chinese patients with heart valve surgery. Having fewer variables, the system is much easier for bedside use than other systems.

Adult ; Cardiac Surgical Procedures ; statistics & numerical data ; China ; Female ; Heart Valves ; surgery ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Models, Theoretical ; Risk Assessment

Animals ; Benchmarking ; methods ; statistics & numerical data ; Dose-Response Relationship, Drug ; Humans ; Models, Statistical ; No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Level ; Risk Assessment ; methods ; statistics & numerical data ; Toxicology ; methods

OBJECTIVETo investigate the annual effective doses from indoor radon received by academic staff in the Faculty building.

METHODSMeasurements of indoor radon concentrations were performed in the Arts and Sciences Faculty of Dokuz Eylül University for two surveys of about 1 month duration respectively using the SSNTD (Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors) method with LR115 detectors. Time integrated measurements comprised different locations inside the faculty building: classrooms, toilets, canteen and offices. Homes of academic staff were also tested for radon.

RESULTSThe arithmetic mean radon concentration is 161 Bq m-3 with a range between 40 and 335 Bq m-3 in the Faculty. Six offices and three classrooms have a radon concentration above 200 Bq m-3. The results show that the radon concentration in classrooms is generally higher than in offices. Based on the measured indoor radon data, the annual effective doses received by staff in the Faculty were estimated to range from 0.79 to 4.27 mSv, according to UNSCEAR methodology. The annual effective doses received by staff ranged from 0.78 to 4.20 mSv in homes. On average, the Faculty contributed 56% to the annual effective dose.

CONCLUSIONReported values for radon concentrations and corresponding doses are within the ICRP recommended limits for workplaces.

Air Pollution, Indoor ; analysis ; Environmental Monitoring ; Faculty ; Housing ; statistics & numerical data ; Humans ; Radiation Dosage ; Radon ; analysis ; Risk Assessment ; Turkey ; Universities ; statistics & numerical data