1.Expert consensus on the prevention and treatment of radiochemotherapy-induced oral mucositis.
Juan XIA ; Xiaoan TAO ; Qinchao HU ; Wei LUO ; Xiuzhen TONG ; Gang ZHOU ; Hongmei ZHOU ; Hong HUA ; Guoyao TANG ; Tong WU ; Qianming CHEN ; Yuan FAN ; Xiaobing GUAN ; Hongwei LIU ; Chaosu HU ; Yongmei ZHOU ; Xuemin SHEN ; Lan WU ; Xin ZENG ; Qing LIU ; Renchuan TAO ; Yuan HE ; Yang CAI ; Wenmei WANG ; Ying ZHANG ; Yingfang WU ; Minhai NIE ; Xin JIN ; Xiufeng WEI ; Yongzhan NIE ; Changqing YUAN ; Bin CHENG
International Journal of Oral Science 2025;17(1):54-54
Radiochemotherapy-induced oral mucositis (OM) is a common oral complication in patients with tumors following head and neck radiotherapy or chemotherapy. Erosion and ulcers are the main features of OM that seriously affect the quality of life of patients and even the progress of tumor treatment. To date, differences in clinical prevention and treatment plans for OM have been noted among doctors of various specialties, which has increased the uncertainty of treatment effects. On the basis of current research evidence, this expert consensus outlines risk factors, clinical manifestations, clinical grading, ancillary examinations, diagnostic basis, prevention and treatment strategies and efficacy indicators for OM. In addition to strategies such as basic oral care, anti-inflammatory and analgesic agents, anti-infective agents, pro-healing agents, and photobiotherapy recommended in previous guidelines, we also emphasize the role of traditional Chinese medicine in OM prevention and treatment. This expert consensus aims to provide references and guidance for dental physicians and oncologists in formulating strategies for OM prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, standardizing clinical practice, reducing OM occurrence, promoting healing, and improving the quality of life of patients.
Humans
;
Chemoradiotherapy/adverse effects*
;
Consensus
;
Risk Factors
;
Stomatitis/etiology*
2.Alzheimer's disease: insights into pathology, molecular mechanisms, and therapy.
Protein & Cell 2025;16(2):83-120
Alzheimer's disease (AD), the leading cause of dementia, is characterized by the accumulation of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain. This condition casts a significant shadow on global health due to its complex and multifactorial nature. In addition to genetic predispositions, the development of AD is influenced by a myriad of risk factors, including aging, systemic inflammation, chronic health conditions, lifestyle, and environmental exposures. Recent advancements in understanding the complex pathophysiology of AD are paving the way for enhanced diagnostic techniques, improved risk assessment, and potentially effective prevention strategies. These discoveries are crucial in the quest to unravel the complexities of AD, offering a beacon of hope for improved management and treatment options for the millions affected by this debilitating disease.
Alzheimer Disease/metabolism*
;
Humans
;
Animals
;
Plaque, Amyloid/metabolism*
;
Risk Factors
3.Prevalence and associated risk factors of carotid plaque and artery stenosis in China: a population-based study.
Qingjia ZENG ; Chongyang ZHANG ; Xinyao LIU ; Shengmin YANG ; Muyuan MA ; Jia TANG ; Tianlu YIN ; Shanshan ZHAO ; Wenjun TU ; Hongpu HU
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(1):64-78
Stroke is a critical health issue in China, and carotid artery stenosis and plaque play key roles in its prevalence. Despite the acknowledged significance of this condition, detailed information regarding the prevalence of carotid artery stenosis and plaque across the Chinese population has been scarce. This study analyzed data from the China Stroke High-risk Population Screening and Intervention Program for 2020-2021, focusing on 194 878 Chinese adults aged 40 years and above. It assessed the prevalence of carotid artery stenosis and plaque and identified their associated risk factors. Results revealed a standardized prevalence of 0.40% for carotid artery stenosis and 36.27% for carotid plaque. Notably, the highest rates of stenosis were observed in north and south China at 0.61%, while southwestern China exhibited the highest plaque prevalence at 43.17%. Key risk factors included older age, male gender, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, smoking, and atrial fibrillation. This study highlights significant geographical and demographic disparities in the prevalence of these conditions, underlining the urgent need for targeted interventions and policy reforms. These measures are essential for reducing the incidence of stroke and improving patient outcomes, addressing this significant health challenge in China.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Prevalence
;
Middle Aged
;
Carotid Stenosis/epidemiology*
;
Risk Factors
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Plaque, Atherosclerotic/epidemiology*
;
Stroke/epidemiology*
;
Aged, 80 and over
4.Gallstones, cholecystectomy, and cancer risk: an observational and Mendelian randomization study.
Yuanyue ZHU ; Linhui SHEN ; Yanan HUO ; Qin WAN ; Yingfen QIN ; Ruying HU ; Lixin SHI ; Qing SU ; Xuefeng YU ; Li YAN ; Guijun QIN ; Xulei TANG ; Gang CHEN ; Yu XU ; Tiange WANG ; Zhiyun ZHAO ; Zhengnan GAO ; Guixia WANG ; Feixia SHEN ; Xuejiang GU ; Zuojie LUO ; Li CHEN ; Qiang LI ; Zhen YE ; Yinfei ZHANG ; Chao LIU ; Youmin WANG ; Shengli WU ; Tao YANG ; Huacong DENG ; Lulu CHEN ; Tianshu ZENG ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Yiming MU ; Weiqing WANG ; Guang NING ; Jieli LU ; Min XU ; Yufang BI ; Weiguo HU
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(1):79-89
This study aimed to comprehensively examine the association of gallstones, cholecystectomy, and cancer risk. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to estimate the observational associations of gallstones and cholecystectomy with cancer risk, using data from a nationwide cohort involving 239 799 participants. General and gender-specific two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was further conducted to assess the causalities of the observed associations. Observationally, a history of gallstones without cholecystectomy was associated with a high risk of stomach cancer (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=2.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50-4.28), liver and bile duct cancer (aOR=2.46, 95% CI 1.17-5.16), kidney cancer (aOR=2.04, 95% CI 1.05-3.94), and bladder cancer (aOR=2.23, 95% CI 1.01-5.13) in the general population, as well as cervical cancer (aOR=1.69, 95% CI 1.12-2.56) in women. Moreover, cholecystectomy was associated with high odds of stomach cancer (aOR=2.41, 95% CI 1.29-4.49), colorectal cancer (aOR=1.83, 95% CI 1.18-2.85), and cancer of liver and bile duct (aOR=2.58, 95% CI 1.11-6.02). MR analysis only supported the causal effect of gallstones on stomach, liver and bile duct, kidney, and bladder cancer. This study added evidence to the causal effect of gallstones on stomach, liver and bile duct, kidney, and bladder cancer, highlighting the importance of cancer screening in individuals with gallstones.
Humans
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Mendelian Randomization Analysis
;
Gallstones/complications*
;
Female
;
Male
;
Cholecystectomy/statistics & numerical data*
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Middle Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Neoplasms/etiology*
;
Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology*
5.Developing a polygenic risk score for pelvic organ prolapse: a combined risk assessment approach in Chinese women.
Xi CHENG ; Lei LI ; Xijuan LIN ; Na CHEN ; Xudong LIU ; Yaqian LI ; Zhaoai LI ; Jian GONG ; Qing LIU ; Yuling WANG ; Juntao WANG ; Zhijun XIA ; Yongxian LU ; Hangmei JIN ; Xiaowei ZHANG ; Luwen WANG ; Juan CHEN ; Guorong FAN ; Shan DENG ; Sen ZHAO ; Lan ZHU
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(4):665-674
Pelvic organ prolapse (POP), whose etiology is influenced by genetic and clinical risk factors, considerably impacts women's quality of life. However, the genetic underpinnings in non-European populations and comprehensive risk models integrating genetic and clinical factors remain underexplored. This study constructed the first polygenic risk score (PRS) for POP in the Chinese population by utilizing 20 disease-associated variants from the largest existing genome-wide association study. We analyzed a discovery cohort of 576 cases and 623 controls and a validation cohort of 264 cases and 200 controls. Results showed that the case group exhibited a significantly higher PRS than the control group. Moreover, the odds ratio of the top 10% risk group was 2.6 times higher than that of the bottom 10%. A high PRS was significantly correlated with POP occurrence in women older than 50 years old and in those with one or no childbirths. As far as we know, the integrated prediction model, which combined PRS and clinical risk factors, demonstrated better predictive accuracy than other existing PRS models. This combined risk assessment model serves as a robust tool for POP risk prediction and stratification, thereby offering insights into individualized preventive measures and treatment strategies in future clinical practice.
Humans
;
Female
;
Pelvic Organ Prolapse/epidemiology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Assessment/methods*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Multifactorial Inheritance
;
Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Genome-Wide Association Study
;
Genetic Predisposition to Disease
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Adult
;
Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
;
Genetic Risk Score
;
East Asian People
6.Particulate matter exposure and end-stage renal disease risk in IgA nephropathy.
Yilin CHEN ; Huan ZHOU ; Siqing WANG ; Lingqiu DONG ; Yi TANG ; Wei QIN
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(5):855-864
Long-term exposure to particulate matter has been increasingly implicated in the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, its impact on IgA nephropathy (IgAN), a leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), remains unclear. A total of 1768 IgAN patients, confirmed by renal biopsy were included in this cohort study. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 was assessed using high-resolution satellite-based data from the China High Air Pollutants (CHAP) dataset. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations between PM2.5 or PM10 and ESRD risk, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and biochemical covariates. Over a median follow-up of 3.63 years, 209 participants progressed to ESRD. Higher exposure to both PM2.5 and PM10 was significantly associated with an increased risk, with hazard ratios of 1.62 and 1.36 per 10 µg/m3 increase, respectively. A nonlinear dose-response relationship was observed, with risk increasing markedly beyond threshold levels. Trajectory modeling of prebaseline exposure identified a subgroup with persistently high and fluctuating particulate matter exposure that showed the highest risk. This study provides strong evidence that prolonged exposure to ambient particulate matter contributes to renal disease progression in individuals with IgAN.
Humans
;
Glomerulonephritis, IGA/pathology*
;
Particulate Matter/adverse effects*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Kidney Failure, Chronic/epidemiology*
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Adult
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Disease Progression
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Environmental Exposure/adverse effects*
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Middle Aged
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Proportional Hazards Models
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Risk Factors
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Air Pollutants/adverse effects*
;
Cohort Studies
7.Clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis and development and evaluation of death risk assessment scale.
Fubo DONG ; Liwen LUO ; Dejiang HONG ; Yi YAO ; Kai PENG ; Wenjin LI ; Guangju ZHAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(1):17-22
OBJECTIVE:
To analyze the clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis, identify the key factors affecting their clinical outcomes, construct a death risk assessment scale for elderly patients with sepsis, and evaluate its predictive value.
METHODS:
A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The clinical data of sepsis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from September 2021 to September 2023 were collected, including basic information, clinical characteristics, and clinical outcomes. The patients were divided into non-elderly group (age ≥ 65 years old) and elderly group (age < 65 years old) based on age. Additionally, the elderly patients were divided into survival group and death group based on their 30-day survival status. The clinical characteristics of elderly patients with sepsis were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen the independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis, and the regression equation was constructed. The regression equation was simplified, and the death risk assessment scale was established. The predictive value of different scores for the prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis was compared.
RESULTS:
(1) A total of 833 patients with sepsis were finally enrolled, including 485 in the elderly group and 348 in the non-elderly group. Compared with the non-elderly group, the elderly group showed significantly lower counts of lymphocyte, T cell, CD8+ T cell, and the ratio of T cells and CD8+ T cells [lymphocyte count (×109/L): 0.71 (0.43, 1.06) vs. 0.83 (0.53, 1.26), T cell count (cells/μL): 394.0 (216.0, 648.0) vs. 490.5 (270.5, 793.0), CD8+ T cell count (cells/μL): 126.0 (62.0, 223.5) vs. 180.0 (101.0, 312.0), T cell ratio: 0.60 (0.48, 0.70) vs. 0.64 (0.51, 0.75), CD8+ T cell ratio: 0.19 (0.13, 0.28) vs. 0.24 (0.16, 0.34), all P < 0.01], higher natural killer cell (NK cell) count, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, ratio of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during hospitalization, and 30-day mortality [NK cell count (cells/μL): 112.0 (61.0, 187.5) vs. 95.0 (53.0, 151.0), APACHE II score: 16.00 (12.00, 21.00) vs. 13.00 (8.00, 17.00), IMV ratio: 40.6% (197/485) vs. 31.9% (111/348), 30-day mortality: 28.9% (140/485) vs. 19.5% (68/348), all P < 0.05], and longer length of ICU stay [days: 5.5 (3.0, 10.0) vs. 5.0 (3.0, 8.0), P < 0.05]. There were no statistically significant differences in the levels of inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), and interleukins (IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10) between the two groups. (2) In 485 elderly patients with sepsis, 345 survived in 30 days, and 140 died with the 30-day mortality of 28.9%. Compared with the survival group, the patients in the death group were older, and had lower body mass index (BMI), white blood cell count (WBC), PCT, platelet count (PLT) and higher IL-6, IL-10, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), total bilirubin (TBil), blood lactic acid (Lac), and ratio of in-hospital IMV and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that BMI [odds ratio (OR) = 0.783, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.678-0.905, P = 0.001], IL-6 (OR = 1.073, 95%CI was 1.004-1.146, P = 0.036), TBil (OR = 1.009, 95%CI was 1.000-1.018, P = 0.045), Lac (OR = 1.211, 95%CI was 1.072-1.367, P = 0.002), and IMV during hospitalization (OR = 6.181, 95%CI was 2.214-17.256, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis, and the regression equation was constructed (Logit P = 1.012-0.244×BMI+0.070×IL-6+0.009×TBil+0.190×Lac+1.822×IMV). The regression equation was simplified to construct a death risk assessment scale, namely BITLI score. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of BITLI score for predicting death risk was 0.852 (95%CI was 0.769-0.935), and it was higher than APACHE II score (AUC = 0.714, 95%CI was 0.623-0.805) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (AUC = 0.685, 95%CI was 0.578-0.793). The determined cut-off value of BITLI score was 1.50, while achieving a sensitivity of 83.3% and specificity of 74.0%.
CONCLUSIONS
Elderly patients with sepsis often have reduced lymphocyte counts, severe conditions, and poor prognosis. BMI, IL-6, TBil, Lac, and IMV during hospitalization were independent risk factors for 30-day death in elderly patients with sepsis. The BITLI score constructed based above risk factors is more precise and reliable than traditional APACHE II and SOFA scores in predicting the outcomes of elderly patients with sepsis.
Humans
;
Sepsis/mortality*
;
Aged
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Risk Assessment
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Prognosis
;
Male
;
Female
;
Intensive Care Units
;
Risk Factors
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Logistic Models
;
Middle Aged
8.Analysis of the risk factors of hypophosphatemia in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome.
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(1):43-47
OBJECTIVE:
To analyze the risk factors of hypophosphatemia in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
METHODS:
A retrospective case-control study was conducted. The clinical data of the patients with ARDS admitted to Yanbian University Affiliated Hospital from January 2018 to October 2022 were collected. According to the 1-day serum phosphorus level after intensive care unit (ICU) admission, the patients with normal (0.80-1.45 mmol/L) or elevated (> 1.45 mmol/L) serum phosphorus levels were included in the non-hypophosphatemia group, while those with phosphorus levels lower than 0.80 mmol/L were included in the hypophosphatemia group. The differences in the inflammatory indicators [neutrophils percentage (NEU%), neutrophil count (NEU), lymphocyte count (LYM), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP)], proteins [total protein (TP), albumin (Alb), prealbumin (PA)], blood lactic acid (Lac), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil/albumin ratio (NAR), and blood lactic acid/albumin ratio (L/A) at 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8 days after ICU admission were compared between the two groups. The partial correlation method was used to analyze the correlation between the 1-day serum phosphorus level after ICU admission and the above indicators. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was adopted to explore the risk factors of hypophosphatemia in patients with ARDS.
RESULTS:
All 110 patients were enrolled in the final analysis, among which there were 56 cases in the hypophosphatemia group and 54 cases in the non-hypophosphatemia group. At 1 day and 2 days after ICU admission, NEU% in the hypophosphatemia group were significantly higher than those in the non-hypophosphatemia group (1 day: 0.87±0.08 vs. 0.82±0.12, 2 days: 0.87±0.05 vs. 0.83±0.11, both P < 0.05). As the ICU admission time prolonged, LYM in the hypophosphatemia group was basically on the rise, and NEU%, hs-CRP, and NLR were first decreased and then increased. At 1 day after ICU admission, TP, Alb and PA in the hypophosphatemia group were significantly lower than those in the non-hypophosphatemia group [TP (g/L): 52.96±8.42 vs. 56.47±8.36, Alb (g/L): 29.73±5.83 vs. 33.08±7.35, PA (g/L): 69.95±50.72 vs. 121.50±82.42, all P < 0.05]. As the ICU admission time prolonged, TP and Alb in the hypophosphatemia group were basically showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, but at 8 days, Alb was still lower than that at 1 day, and PA basically showed an upward trend. In the non-hypophosphatemia group, the change trends of TP and Alb were consistent with those in the hypophosphatemia group. Lac and L/A both showed a downward trend in the two groups. Partial correlation analysis showed that 1-day serum phosphorus level after ICU admission was significantly negatively correlated with NEU% and hs-CRP (r value was -0.229 and -0.286, respectively, both P < 0.05), and significantly positively correlated with LYM and PA (r value was 0.231 and 0.311, respectively, both P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that 1-day NEU% [odds ratio (OR) = 0.932, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.873-0.996, P = 0.038] and Alb (OR = 1.167, 95%CI was 1.040-1.308, P = 0.008) were the independent risk factors for hypophosphatemia in ARDS patients.
CONCLUSION
NEU% and Alb at 1 day after ICU admission are independent risk factors for hypophosphatemia in patients with ARDS.
Humans
;
Hypophosphatemia/etiology*
;
Respiratory Distress Syndrome/blood*
;
Risk Factors
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Intensive Care Units
;
Male
;
Female
;
Phosphorus/blood*
;
Middle Aged
;
Neutrophils
;
Aged
;
C-Reactive Protein
9.Current practice, prognostic risk factors and management strategies of pre-hospital extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation in China.
Liangliang ZHOU ; Jianjun CHEN ; Jing WU ; Yijun DENG ; Renyu DING
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(2):103-110
With the gradual development and popularization of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) in China, some prefecture-level medical institutions in China have carried out and formed their own pre-hospital extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) model. Although the development levels of various prefecture-level cities are uneven and the start times vary, at present, the prefecture-level hospitals in China generally go through the development process of ECMO-in-hospital ECPR-pre-hospital ECPR-professional medical recovery center. Among them, in-hospital ECPR has the advantages of timely resuscitation, guaranteed quality of resuscitation, and fast activation speed of the ECPR team, and currently has a high success rate, with a low proportion of patients with neurological complications. However, pre-hospital ECPR is more challenging, requiring the coordination between pre-hospital and in-hospital emergency forces, multidisciplinary cooperation, and the quality of resuscitation before ECPR cannot be fully guaranteed, the long duration of patient's low perfusion, and other factors make the survival rate of patients without neurological damage obviously lower than that of in-hospital ECPR. China has a large population base, and comprehensive domestic and foreign data show that there should be no less than several million cases of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under the age of 60 every year, so there is much to be done to improve the survival rate of pre-hospital ECPR. Pre-hospital ECPR is a project of concentrated resources and technology, which has high requirements for the multidisciplinary diagnosis and treatment capabilities of medical institutions. The optimization of the implementation process of in-hospital and pre-hospital ECPR teams, the advancement of the timing of ECPR intervention, the selection of patients, the support and construction of multidisciplinary diagnosis and treatment capabilities after ECPR, and the management of related complications and risk factors are closely related to the prognosis of ECPR patients. The recoverability of the brain and heart is currently the key factor restricting the further improvement of the survival rate of patients after ECPR. Considering that the recovery of neurological function mainly depends on the duration of the early low perfusion, the in-hospital treatment after the implementation of ECPR is mainly the low-temperature brain protection strategy, the effect of which is still controversial, so the recovery of cardiac function is the key that seriously restricts the survival of patients after ECPR in addition to neurological prognosis. The recoverability of the heart after ECPR can be implemented from multiple angles: the research on pathophysiological issues such as the matching of the heart itself after the implementation of ECPR, and the matching between the heart and ECMO, and the proposal of corresponding countermeasures will help to improve the survival rate of patients after ECPR. The large population and the potential salvageable population make the development of ECPR technology in China's tertiary hospitals urgent and necessary, with challenges and opportunities coexisting.
Humans
;
Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation/methods*
;
China
;
Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/methods*
;
Emergency Medical Services
;
Risk Factors
;
Prognosis
10.Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model for in-hospital mortality risk in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism.
Li HUANG ; Zhengbin WANG ; Yan ZHANG ; Xiao YUE ; Shuo WANG ; Yanxia GAO
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(2):123-127
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism, and to construct and validate a nomogram predictive model for in-hospital mortality risk.
METHODS:
Based on the American Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III, MIMIC-IV) databases, the data were collected on patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism from 2001 to 2019, including baseline characteristics, and vital signs, disease scores, laboratory tests within 24 hours of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and interventions. In-hospital mortality was the outcome event. The total samples were divided into training and testing sets in a 7:3 ratio by random sampling. Univariate Cox regression analysis was used to verify the impact of all variables on the risk of in-hospital mortality, thereby screen potential influencing factors. Subsequently, a stepwise bi-directional regression method was applied to select factors one by one, leading to the construction of a nomogram prediction model. Collinearity testing was used to demonstrate the absence of strong multicollinearity among the influencing factors in the nomogram prediction model. The discrimination of the nomogram model, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) was evaluated using C-index in the test set. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of various models for in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism.
RESULTS:
A total of 562 patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism were included, including 393 in the training set and 169 in the testing set. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that 30 factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism. Through stepwise bi-directional regression, 12 variables were ultimately selected, including gender, presence of malignant tumors, body temperature, red cell distribution width (RDW), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum potassium, prothrombin time (PT), 24-hour urine output, mechanical ventilation, vasoactive drugs, warfarin use, and sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC). Collinearity testing indicated no strong multicollinearity among the influencing factors [all variance inflation factor (VIF) > 10]. A nomogram model was constructed using the 12 variables mentioned above. The nomogram model predicted the C-index and its 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism better than SOFA score and sPESI [0.771 (0.725-0.816) vs. 0.579 (0.519-0.639), 0.608 (0.554-0.663)]. The ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) and its 95%CI of the nomogram model were higher than those of the SOFA score and sPESI [0.811 (0.766-0.857) vs. 0.630 (0.568-0.691), 0.623 (0.566-0.680)]. These findings were consistently replicated in the internal validation of the testing set. In both the training and testing sets, Delong's test showed that the AUC of the nomogram model was significantly higher than the SOFA score and sPESI (both P < 0.05).
CONCLUSION
The nomogram model demonstrated good predictive effectiveness for the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis complicated with acute pulmonary embolism, enabling clinicians to predict mortality risk in advance and take timely interventions to reduce mortality.
Humans
;
Pulmonary Embolism/mortality*
;
Hospital Mortality
;
Nomograms
;
Sepsis/complications*
;
Prognosis
;
Risk Factors
;
Intensive Care Units
;
Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged

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