Objective:To forecast the indicators on maternal and child health of China in 2020.Methods: Based on Surveillance data of the indicators on the maternal and child health in China since the 1990s,forecasting models were found using auto-regressive method,and the indicators on maternal and child health in China in 2020 were forecasted using the models after they had been tested and valued.Results: Auto-regressive models on infant mortality rate(IMR),under-5 mortality rate(U5MR) and maternal mortality(MMR) were found.The models and their parameters passed statistical tests,and their mean absolute error was 5% or so and determination coefficients were all more than 90%.Conclusion: The IMR of China in 2020 was forecasted to be 6.35‰,the U5MR 7.37‰ and the MMR 22.21/100 000.

Anxiety Disorders ; etiology ; therapy ; Breast Neoplasms ; complications ; therapy ; Humans ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Qi

Objective To discuss the influence of the smooth of bile duct examined by choledochoscope during the coInnlon bile duct exploration on the biliary tract theology.Methods Forty patients who were to undergo common bile duct exploration were divided into the control group and the test group with 20 eases in each group.The smooth of the distal common bile duct was examined by choledochoscope in the test group while by routine method in the control group.The T tube drainage volume for 24 h,the pressure,flow volume and resistance of common bile duct and amylase content of drainage were monitored in the two groups within 72 h.Results The T tube drainage volume of the second day increased.the pressure and the resistance of the common bile duct decreased,the flow volunle and amylase content of drainage reduced in the control group,which had statistical difference from those of the test group(P＜0.05).Condusion Avoidance of damaging examination of the distal common bile duct,monitoring of the pressure;flow volume and resistance of the common bile duct within 72 h after operation contributed to the confirmation of the time for clamping T tube early.

Objective To evaluate the clinical application of contrast-enhanced digital subtraction MRI in vertebral metastases.Methods 50 patients with vertebral metastases were scanned by contrast-enhanced T_1WI with an injection of Gd-DTPA(0.1 mmol/kg).Digital subtraction were performed between post-contrast-enhanced images and pre-contrast-enhanced images.Vertebral metastases were evaluated by means of a contrast to noise ratio(CNR) and signal to noise ratio(SNR),and boundaries were compared between subtraction MRI images and conventional contrast T_1WI MR images.Results Contrast-enhanced digital subtraction MRI images were better than conventional contrast T_1WI MR images in showing the lesions. All lesions had a higher CNR and SNR on subtraction MR imaging than that on conventional contrast T_1WI MR images.CNR was 155.05 ? 24.73(mean ? standard error) for subtraction MR imaging and11.11?14.26 for conventional contrast T_1WI MR images,(t=35.65,P

Objective:To explore influence of risk factors of ischemic cerebral stroke (ICS)on its onset.Methods:A total of 350 patients diagnosed as ICS were selected as stroke group among 12241 >40 years people from Dongli dis- trict of Harbin city,another 350 >40 years non-ICS people,who were randomly selected from the same district, were enrolled as control group.ICS risk factors were compared between two groups,multi-factor Logistic regres- sion analysis was used to analyze independent risk factors for ICS.Results:(1)There were no significant difference in age,nationality,education,marriage and professions between two groups except food taste (P<0.01); (2) Multifactor Logistic regression analysis indicated that hypertension (OR=5.853,95%CI:3.188~10.673),hyper- lipidemia (OR=5.601,95%CI:2.378~ 9.635),carotid artery plaque (OR=4.963,95%CI:2.350~9.843), heart disease (OR=4.568,95%CI:2.535~7.745),hyperhomocysteinemia (OR=4.076,95%CI:3.001~8.270), apparent overweight (OR=3.421,95%CI:1.598~6.476)and family history of cerebrovascular diseases (OR=3.065,95%CI:2.543~4.236)were independent risk factors for ICS in both groups (P<0.01 all).According to OR value from big to small,risk factors for ICS were hypertension,hyperlipidemia,carotid artery plaque,heart disease,hyperhomocysteinemia,apparent weight and family history of cerebrovascular diseases respectively.Conclu-sion:Besides traditional risk factors like hypertension,dyslipidemia and family history of cerebrovascular diseases, other risk factors such as carotid artery plaque,heart disease,family history of cerebrovascular disease and apparent overweight are also important risk factors for stroke.

Objective:To explore advantage of intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) guiding coronary intervention .Meth‐ods:A total of 100 patients with left main (LM) lesion were selected and equally divided into IVUS group (n=50 , received stent implantation under IVUS guidance ) and control group [n=50 ,received stent implantation after coro‐nary angiography (CAG) evaluation without IVUS examination ) .Instant condition after stent implantation and fol‐low-up results after 12 months were compared between two groups .Results:There were no significant difference in general data ,percentages of LM opening ,body part and tail lesions ,different types of plaques between two groups , P>0.05 all .During hospitalization ,there were no significant difference in percentage of emergency coro‐nary artery bypass grafting (0% vs .4% ) and mortality (0% vs .4% ) between IVUS group and control group (P>0.05) .However ,after 12 months ,compared with control group ,there were significant reductions in incidence rates of in-stent restenosis (16% vs .4% ) and late stent malapposition (34% vs .6% ) in IVUS group , P< 0.05 ,<0.01. Conclusion:IVUS guiding left main lesion intervention is helps to select more appropriate therapeutic plan , reduce tissue injury and improve long -term therapeutic effect .

Objective To analyze the prognostic indicators in gastric cancer patients underwent radical resection.Methods Clinical data of 257 patients with gastric cancer underwent radical resection from Jan. 2003 to Oct. 2008 in our hospital were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate analysis using Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank analysis,multivariate analysis using COX proportion risk model were performed. Results Univariate analysis indicated that tumor site (P <0. 05) .Borrmann type (P <0. 01) .histological type (P <0. 01),depth of infiltration (P < 0. 01 ) , lymph node metastasis rate ( P < 0. 01 ) , tumor size ( P < 0. 01 ) ,complication ( P < 0. 01 ) and accessorial chemotherapy (P<0. 01) influenced the patients' prognosis. Cox regression analysis indicated that lymph node metastasis rate, depth of infiltration, Borrmann type and tumor size were the independent risk factors of prognosis(P<0. 05). The relative risk will increase 3.374 times,2. 337 times,1.657 times and 1.580 times with each additional level of lymph node metastasis, depth of infiltration, Borrmann type and tumor size. Conclusions There are various factors influencing the prognosis of gastric cancer,of which lymph node metastasis rate is the most important prognosis indicator.

Objective To explore the effects of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) on the improve?ment of depressive behavior and the hippocampus brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) expression in chronic stress-induced depression rats. To further investigate the possible molecular mechanism of rTMS treatment for depres?sion. Methods Forty male Sprague-Dawley rats of SPF grade were randomly divided into the blank control group (n=8) and the stress-induced group (n=30). Singly housing and chronic unpredictable mild stress (CUMS) were used to induce the depression model in stress-induced group. Twenty-four model rats were divided into three groups:model group (with no further treatment), rTMS group (receiving 10 Hz rTMS intervention for 3 weeks) and shame group (receiving pseudo TMS treatments for 3 weeks). Weight measurement, sucrose consumption test and open-field test were used to assess the behavior changes. The rat hippocampal CA3 area of BDNF positive staining cell number and expression levels of BDNF mRNA in hippocampus were examined after intervention. Results The weight reduction rate, score of sucrose consump?tion test and the score of open field test were significantly higher in rTMS group than in model group (P<0.05). The num? ber of BDNF staining positive cells in the hippocampal CA3 area was lower in model group and shame group than in the blank control group whereas was higher in the rTMS group than in the model group (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the BDNF mRNA relative expression was significantly increased in the hippocampus of rTMS group (P<0.01). Conclusion rTMS can improve depressive behaviors of CUMS rats probably through the increase in expression of BDNF in the hippocampal neurons and neuronal regeneration.

Objective To develop a method for rapid and accurate detection and identification of bacterial pathogens directly from body fluid specimens and to evaluate its application in clinical laboratory.Methods Bacteria DNA was extracted from 205 body fluid specimens with column-based kit,and the high variable V1 and V3 regions of bacterial 16S rRNA gene were amplified with broad-range primers.Amplicons were analyzed by pyrosequencing and the generated sequences were searched in the bacterial identification database.Traditional culture-biochemical method was also used for these specimens and the results were taken as the golden standard.SPSS 11.0 was used to calculate the sensitivity,specificity,false positive/negative rate,positive/negative predictive value and positive/negative likelihood rate of pyrosequencing method.Results The positive rate of bacteria culture was 39.5％ (81/205),among which 71 were infected with single bacterium,and 10 were infected with two species of bacteria.Compared with the culture identification results,pyrosequencing had a 100.0％ (71/71) concordance when applied to detect and identify bacterial pathogens from specimens with single specie bacterium infected.To specimens with two species bacteria infected,7 out of 10 specimens were in concordance with the culture identification results.Besides,pyrosequencing detected 10 positive specimens and identified bacterial pathogens infected in the 124 culture-negative specimens.Taken bacteria culture as the standard method,the sensitivity of pyrosequencing for identifying bacterial pathogen in body fluid was 100.0％,and with a specificity of 91.9％,the false positive rate was 8.1％,the false negative rate was 0.0％,the positive predictive value was 89.0％,the negative predictive value was 100.0％,and the positive and the negative likelihood rate were 12.4 and 0,respectively.Conclusion Pyrosequencing can be used to detect and identify bacterial pathogens directly from body fluid specimens with the advantages of rapidity,high sensitivity,high accuracy and high throughput.