Background/Aims: Due to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040. Methods: Prevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality. Results: The forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 prevalence of 38.9%. The estimated average yearly increase since 2020 was 2.16%. For those aged <50 years and ≥50 years, the 2040 prevalence were not significantly different (56.7% vs. 61.5%, P=0.52). There was a significant difference in 2040 prevalence by sex (males: 60% vs. 50%) but the trend was steeper for females (annual percentage change: 2.5% vs. 1.5%, P=0.025). There was no difference in trends overtime by region (P=0.48). The increase rate was significantly higher in those without metabolic syndrome (3.8% vs. 0.84%, P=0.003) and smokers (1.4% vs. 1.1%, P=0.011). There was no difference by clinical/community setting (P=0.491) or study quality (P=0.85). Conclusion By 2040, over half the adult population is forecasted to have NAFLD. The largest increases are expected to occur in women, smokers, and those without metabolic syndrome. Intensified efforts are needed to raise awareness of NAFLD and to determine long-term solutions addressing the driving factors of the disease.

Understanding of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) continues to expand, but the relationship between race and ethnicity and NAFLD outside the use of cross-sectional data is lacking. Using longitudinal data, we investigated the role of race and ethnicity in adverse outcomes in NAFLD patients. Methods: Patients with NAFLD confirmed by imaging via manual chart review from any clinics at Stanford University Medical Center (1995–2021) were included. Primary study outcomes were incidence of liver events and mortality (overall and non-liver related). Results: The study included 9,340 NAFLD patients: White (44.1%), Black (2.29%), Hispanic (27.9%), and Asian (25.7%) patients. For liver events, the cumulative 5-year incidence was highest among White (19.1%) patients, lowest among Black (7.9%) patients, and similar among Asian and Hispanic patients (~15%). The 5-year and 10-year cumulative overall mortality was highest for Black patients (9.2% and 15.0%, respectively, vs. 2.5–3.5% and 4.3–7.3% in other groups) as well as for non-liver mortality. On multivariable regression analysis, compared to White patients, only Asian group was associated with lower liver-related outcomes (aHR: 0.83, P=0.027), while Black patients were at more than two times higher risk of both non-liver related (aHR: 2.35, P=0.010) and overall mortality (aHR: 2.13, P=0.022) as well as Hispanic patients (overall mortality: aHR: 1.44, P=0.022).Conclusions: Compared to White patients, Black patients with NAFLD were at the highest risk for overall and non-liver-related mortality, followed by Hispanic patients with Asian patients at the lowest risk for all adverse outcomes. Culturally sensitive and appropriate programs may be needed for more successful interventions.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: A number of clinical trials reported varying effects of cholesterol lowering agents in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients. We, therefore, assessed the changes in hepatic steatosis and NAFLD activity score (NAS) after treatment with cholesterol lowering agents in NAFLD patients by metaanalysis. METHODS: The Cochrane Library, the MEDLINE, and the Embase databases were searched until May 2015, without any language restrictions, for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and nonrandomized studies (NRSs). Additional references were obtained from review of bibliography of relevant articles. The quality of evidence was assessed using the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation guidelines. RESULTS: Three RCTs (n = 98) and two NRSs (n = 101) met our study inclusion criteria (adult, NAFLD, liver biopsy). Liver biopsy was performed in all five studies, but only the three studies reported NAS. Ezetimibe significantly decreased NAS (standardized mean difference [SMD], –0.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], –0.57 to –0.03) but not hepatic steatosis in RCT (SMD, –0.1; 95% CI, –0.53 to 0.32), while the effect was significant for both NAS and intrahepatic content in NRSs (SMD, –3.0; 95% CI, –6.9 to 0.91). CONCLUSIONS Ezetimibe decreased NAS without improving hepatic steatosis.

Background/Aims: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with a multitude of adverse outcomes. We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of NAFLD-related adverse events. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults with NAFLD to evaluate the pooled incidence of adverse events. Results: 19,406 articles were screened, 409 full-text articles reviewed, and 79 eligible studies (1,377,466 persons) were included. Mean age was 51.47 years and body mass index 28.90 kg/m2. Baseline comorbidities included metabolic syndrome (41.73%), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (16.83%), cirrhosis (21.97%), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (58.85%). Incidence rate per 1,000 person-years for mortality included: all-cause (14.6), CVD-related (4.53), non-liver cancer-related (4.53), and liver-related (3.10). Incidence for liver-related events included overall (24.3), fibrosis progression (49.0), cirrhosis (10.9), liver transplant (12.0), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (3.39). Incidence for non-liver events included metabolic syndrome (25.4), hypertension (25.8), dyslipidemia (26.4), diabetes (19.0), CVD (24.77), renal impairment (30.3), depression/anxiety (29.1), and non-liver cancer (10.5). Biopsy-proven NASH had higher incidence of HCC (P=0.043) compared to non-NASH. Higher rates of CVD and mortality were observed in North America and Europe, hypertension and non-liver cancer in North America, and HCC in Western Pacific/Southeast Asia (P<0.05). No significant differences were observed by sex. Time-period analyses showed decreasing rates of cardiovascular and non-liver cancer mortality and increasing rates of decompensated cirrhosis (P<0.05). Conclusions People with NAFLD have high incidence of liver and non-liver adverse clinical events, varying by NASH, geographic region, and time-period, but not sex.

Background/Aims: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and fatty liver (FL) often co-exist, but natural history data of this dual condition (CHB-FL) are sparse. Via a systematic review, conventional meta-analysis (MA) and individual patient-level data MA (IPDMA), we compared liver-related outcomes and mortality between CHB-FL and CHB-no FL patients. Methods: We searched 4 databases from inception to December 2021 and pooled study-level estimates using a random- effects model for conventional MA. For IPDMA, we evaluated outcomes after balancing the two study groups with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) on age, sex, cirrhosis, diabetes, ALT, HBeAg, HBV DNA, and antiviral treatment. Results: We screened 2,157 articles and included 19 eligible studies (17,955 patients: 11,908 CHB-no FL; 6,047 CHB-FL) in conventional MA, which found severe heterogeneity (I2=88–95%) and no significant differences in HCC, cirrhosis, mortality, or HBsAg seroclearance incidence (P=0.27–0.93). IPDMA included 13,262 patients: 8,625 CHB-no FL and 4,637 CHB-FL patients who differed in several characteristics. The IPTW cohort included 6,955 CHB-no FL and 3,346 CHB-FL well-matched patients. CHB-FL patients (vs. CHB-no FL) had significantly lower HCC, cirrhosis, mortality and higher HBsAg seroclearance incidence (all p≤0.002), with consistent results in subgroups. CHB-FL diagnosed by liver biopsy had a higher 10-year cumulative HCC incidence than CHB-FL diagnosed with non-invasive methods (63.6% vs. 4.3%, p<0.0001). Conclusions IPDMA data with well-matched CHB patient groups showed that FL (vs. no FL) was associated with significantly lower HCC, cirrhosis, and mortality risk and higher HBsAg seroclearance probability.