Background: Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and hepcidin-25 are involved in catalytic iron-related kidney injury after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. We explored the predictive value of plasma NGAL, plasma hepcidin-25, and the plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 ratio for major adverse kidney events (MAKE) after cardiac surgery. Methods: We compared the predictive value of plasma NGAL, hepcidin-25, and plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 with that of serum creatinine (Cr) and urinary output and protein for primary-endpoint MAKE (acute kidney injury [AKI] stages 2 and 3, persistent AKI > 48 hours, acute dialysis, and in-hospital mortality) and secondary-endpoint AKI in 100 cardiac surgery patients at intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We performed ROC curve, logistic regression, and reclassification analyses. Results: At ICU admission, plasma NGAL, plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25, plasma interleukin-6, and Cr predicted MAKE (area under the ROC curve [AUC]: 0.77, 0.79, 0.74, and 0.74, respectively) and AKI (0.73, 0.89, 0.70, and 0.69). For AKI prediction, plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 had a higher discriminatory power than Cr (AUC difference 0.26 [95% CI 0.00–0.53]). Urinary output and protein, plasma lactate, C-reactive protein, creatine kinase myocardial band, and brain natriuretic peptide did not predict MAKE or AKI (AUC < 0.70). Only plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 correctly reclassified patients according to their MAKE and AKI status (category-free net reclassification improvement: 0.82 [95% CI 0.12–1.52], 1.03 [0.29–1.77]). After adjustment to the Cleveland risk score, plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 ≥ 0.9 independently predicted MAKE (adjusted odds ratio 16.34 [95% CI 1.77–150.49], P = 0.014). Conclusions Plasma NGAL:hepcidin-25 is a promising marker for predicting postoperative MAKE.

Background: We explored the extent to which neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) cutoff value selection and the acute kidney injury (AKI) classification system determine clinical AKI-phenotype allocation and associated outcomes. Methods: Cutoff values from ROC curves of data from two independent prospective cardiac surgery study cohorts (Magdeburg and Berlin, Germany) were used to predict Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO)- or Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss of kidney function, End-stage (RIFLE)-defined AKI. Statistical methodologies (maximum Youden index, lowest distance to [0, 1] in ROC space, sensitivity≈specificity) and cutoff values from two NGAL meta-analyses were evaluated. Associated risks of adverse outcomes (acute dialysis initiation and in-hospital mortality) were compared. Results: NGAL cutoff concentrations calculated from ROC curves to predict AKI varied according to the statistical methodology and AKI classification system (10.6–159.1 and 16.85–149.3 ng/mL in the Magdeburg and Berlin cohorts, respectively). Proportions of attributed subclinical AKI ranged 2%–33.0% and 10.1%–33.1% in the Magdeburg and Berlin cohorts, respectively. The difference in calculated risk for adverse outcomes (fraction of odds ratios for AKI-phenotype group differences) varied considerably when changing the cutoff concentration within the RIFLE or KDIGO classification (up to 18.33- and 16.11-times risk difference, respectively) and was even greater when comparing cutoff methodologies between RIFLE and KDIGO classifications (up to 25.7-times risk difference). Conclusions NGAL positivity adds prognostic information regardless of RIFLE or KDIGO classification or cutoff selection methodology. The risk of adverse events depends on the methodology of cutoff selection and AKI classification system.