1.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
2.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
3.Carvedilol to prevent hepatic decompensation of cirrhosis in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension stratified by new non-invasive model (CHESS2306)
Chuan LIU ; Hong YOU ; Qing-Lei ZENG ; Yu Jun WONG ; Bingqiong WANG ; Ivica GRGUREVIC ; Chenghai LIU ; Hyung Joon YIM ; Wei GOU ; Bingtian DONG ; Shenghong JU ; Yanan GUO ; Qian YU ; Masashi HIROOKA ; Hirayuki ENOMOTO ; Amr Shaaban HANAFY ; Zhujun CAO ; Xiemin DONG ; Jing LV ; Tae Hyung KIM ; Yohei KOIZUMI ; Yoichi HIASA ; Takashi NISHIMURA ; Hiroko IIJIMA ; Chuanjun XU ; Erhei DAI ; Xiaoling LAN ; Changxiang LAI ; Shirong LIU ; Fang WANG ; Ying GUO ; Jiaojian LV ; Liting ZHANG ; Yuqing WANG ; Qing XIE ; Chuxiao SHAO ; Zhensheng LIU ; Federico RAVAIOLI ; Antonio COLECCHIA ; Jie LI ; Gao-Jun TENG ; Xiaolong QI
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2025;31(1):105-118
Background:
s/Aims: Non-invasive models stratifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) are limited. Herein, we developed a new non-invasive model for predicting CSPH in patients with compensated cirrhosis and investigated whether carvedilol can prevent hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified using the new model.
Methods:
Non-invasive risk factors of CSPH were identified via systematic review and meta-analysis of studies involving patients with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). A new non-invasive model was validated for various performance aspects in three cohorts, i.e., a multicenter HVPG cohort, a follow-up cohort, and a carvediloltreating cohort.
Results:
In the meta-analysis with six studies (n=819), liver stiffness measurement and platelet count were identified as independent risk factors for CSPH and were used to develop the new “CSPH risk” model. In the HVPG cohort (n=151), the new model accurately predicted CSPH with cutoff values of 0 and –0.68 for ruling in and out CSPH, respectively. In the follow-up cohort (n=1,102), the cumulative incidences of decompensation events significantly differed using the cutoff values of <–0.68 (low-risk), –0.68 to 0 (medium-risk), and >0 (high-risk). In the carvediloltreated cohort, patients with high-risk CSPH treated with carvedilol (n=81) had lower rates of decompensation events than non-selective beta-blockers untreated patients with high-risk CSPH (n=613 before propensity score matching [PSM], n=162 after PSM).
Conclusions
Treatment with carvedilol significantly reduces the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with high-risk CSPH stratified by the new model.
4.Development goals and strategies of ecological agriculture of Chinese materia medica.
Chuan-Zhi KANG ; Si-Qi LIU ; Bang-Xing HAN ; Tao ZHOU ; Xiao WANG ; Da-Hui LIU ; Ye YANG ; Lan-Ping GUO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(1):42-47
This paper aims to contribute to guaranteeing the stable development and enhancing the understanding of ecological agriculture of Chinese materia medica so that the national strategy and industrial demand can be better served. It first introduces current traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)policy and industrial development status from five aspects, including policy guarantee, theoretical support, technological innovation, standardization system, and brand influence. Then, the paper analyzes the development dilemma of TCM agriculture in production and quality increase and ecological environment protection. It also proposes the development goals of ecological agriculture of Chinese materia medica that meet the current industrial development demand, which are reducing chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and carbon emissions, improving quality, increasing efficiency, and protecting ecological environment. In addition, the new development goals are interpreted through case studies. Finally, this paper proposes four development strategies for ecological agriculture of Chinese materia medica: conducting research on the pattern and spatial and temporal variations of nationwide TCM production areas; studying the internal and external ecological memories of medicinal plant growth from the perspectives of genetic variations and environmental adaptation variations and elucidating their contributions to the formation of quality; carrying out selection and breeding of stress-resistant varieties for ecological agriculture of Chinese materia medica, the optimization of key technologies for soil improvement and restoration and green prevention and control against diseases and pests, and the improvement of quality; carrying out research on the quality assurance and value realization of ecological products made from TCM. This research can provide guidance for policy formulation, theoretical development of the discipline, and the enhancement of industrial technology for ecological agriculture of Chinese materia medica.
Agriculture/methods*
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China
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal
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Plants, Medicinal/chemistry*
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Ecosystem
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Materia Medica
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Medicine, Chinese Traditional
5.Effect and mechanism of Moringa oleifera leaves, seeds, and velamen in improving learning and memory impairments in mice based on transcriptomic and metabolomic.
Zhi-Hao WANG ; Shu-Yi FENG ; Tao LI ; Wan-Ping ZHOU ; Jin-Yu WANG ; Yang LIU ; Lin ZHANG ; Yuan-Yuan XIE ; Xiu-Lan HUANG ; Zhi-Yong LI ; Lu-Qi HUANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(13):3793-3812
Moringa oleifera, widely utilized in Ayurvedic medicine, is recognized for its leaves, seeds, and velamen possessing traditional effects such as vātahara(wind alleviation), sirovirecaka(brain clearing), and hridya(mental nourishment). This study aims to identify the medicinal part of ■ in the Sārasvata ghee formulation as described in the Bower Manuscript, while investigating the ameliorative effects of different medicinal parts of M. oleifera on learning and memory deficits in mice and elucidating the underlying molecular mechanisms. A total of 144 male ICR mice were randomly assigned to the following groups: control, model(scopolamine hydrobromide, Sco, 2 mg·kg~(-1)), donepezil(donepezil hydrochloride, Don, 3 mg·kg~(-1)), M. oleifera leaf low-, medium-, and high-dose groups(0.5, 1, 2 g·kg~(-1)), M. oleifera seeds low-, medium-, and high-dose groups(0.25, 0.5, 1 g·kg~(-1)), and M. oleifera velamen low-, medium-, and high-dose groups(0.31, 0.62, 1.24 g·kg~(-1)). Learning and memory abilities were assessed using the passive avoidance test and Morris water maze. Nissl and HE staining were employed to examine histopathological changes in the hippocampus. Transcriptomics and targeted metabolomics were used to screen differential genes and metabolites, with MetaboAnalyst 6.0 and O2PLS methods applied to identify key disease-related targets and pathways. RESULTS:: demonstrated that M. oleifera leaf(1 g·kg~(-1)) significantly ameliorated Sco-induced learning and memory deficits, outperforming M. oleifera seeds(0.25 g·kg~(-1)) and M. oleifera velamen(1.24 g·kg~(-1)). This was evidenced by improved behavioral performance, reversal of neuronal damage, and reduced acetylcholinesterase(AChE) activity. Multi-omics analysis revealed that M. oleifera leaf upregulated Tuba1c gene expression through the synaptic vesicle cycle, enhancing glutamate(Glu), dopamine(DA), and acetylcholine(ACh) release via Tuba1c-Glu associations for neuroprotection. M. oleifera seeds targeted the dopaminergic synapse pathway, promoting memory consolidation through Drd2-ACh associations. M. oleifera velamen was associated with the cocaine addiction pathway, modulating dopamine metabolism via Adora2a-DOPAC, with limited relevance to learning and memory. In conclusion, M. oleifera leaf exhibits superior efficacy and mechanistic advantages over M. oleifera seeds and velamen, suggesting that the ■ in the Sārasvata ghee formulation is likely M. oleifera leaf, providing scientific evidence for its identification in ancient texts.
Animals
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Moringa oleifera/chemistry*
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Male
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Mice
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Seeds/chemistry*
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Plant Leaves/chemistry*
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Mice, Inbred ICR
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Memory Disorders/psychology*
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Transcriptome/drug effects*
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Memory/drug effects*
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Learning/drug effects*
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Metabolomics
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Humans
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Maze Learning/drug effects*
6.Correlation between the level of NT-proBNP and cardiorespiratory fitness of individuals following acute high altitude exposure
Ping-Ping LI ; Xiao-Wei YE ; Jie YANG ; Zhe-Xue QIN ; Shi-Zhu BIAN ; Ji-Hang ZHANG ; Xu-Bin GAO ; Meng-Jia SUN ; Zhen LIU ; Hai-Lin LYU ; Qian-Yu JIA ; Yuan-Qi YANG ; Bing-Jie YANG ; Lan HUANG
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2024;49(9):998-1003
Objective To investigate the correlation between the level of N-terminal pro-Brain natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP)and cardiorespiratory fitness following acute exposure to high altitude.Methods Forty-six subjects were recruited from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University in June 2022,including 19 males and 27 females.After completing cardiopulmonary exercise test(CPET),serological detection of myocardial cell-related markers,and multiple metabolites at a plain altitude(300 meters above sea level),all subjects flew to a high-altitude location(3900 meters above sea level).Biomarker testing and CPET were repeated on the second and third days after arrival at high altitude.Changes in serum biomarker and key CPET indicators before and after rapid ascent to high altitude were compared,and the correlation between serum levels of various myocardial cell-related markers and metabolites and high altitude cardiorespiratory fitness was analyzed.Results Compared with the plain altitude,there was a significant decrease in maximal oxygen uptake after rapid ascent to high altitude[(25.41±6.20)ml/(kg.min)vs.(30.17±5.01)ml/(kg.min),P<0.001].Serum levels of NT-proBNP,Epinephrine(E),plasma renin activity(PRA),angiotensin Ⅱ(Ang Ⅱ),angiotensin-converting enzyme 2(ACE2)and leptin(LEP)significantly increased,with all differences being statistically significant(P<0.05)after acute high altitude exposure.In contrast,no statistically significant differences were observed for creatine kinase MB(CK-MB),cardiac troponin I(cTnI),myoglobin(Myo)and norepinephrine(NE)(P>0.05).Correlation analysis showed a significant negative correlation between NT-proBNP at plain altitude(r=-0.768,P<0.001)and at high altitude(r=-0.791,P<0.001)with maximal oxygen uptake at high altitude.Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that maximal oxygen uptake at plain altitude(t=2.069,P=0.045),NT-proBNP at plain altitude(t=-2.436,P=0.020)and at high altitude(t=-3.578,P=0.001)were independent influencing factors of cardiorespiratory fitness at high altitude.Conclusion Cardiorespiratory fitness significantly decreases after rapid ascent to high altitude,and the baseline NT-proBNP level at plain altitude is closely related to cardiorespiratory fitness at high altitude,making it a potential predictor indicator for high altitude cardiorespiratory fitness.
7.Study on the protective effect and mechanism of Zhilong Huoxue Tongyu Capsule on myocardial ischemia reperfusion injury mice based on serum metabolomics
Mengnan LIU ; Linshen MAO ; Hao WU ; Yuan ZOU ; Qi LAN ; Jinyi XUE ; Ping LIU ; Sijin YANG ; Zhongjing HU
Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;47(4):523-531
Objective To observe the protective effect of Zhilong Huoxue Tongyu Capsule(Zhilong Capsule)on myocardial ischemia reperfusion injury(MIRI)in mice,and explore its regulatory mechanism using metabolomics.Methods Using a random number table method,30 C57BL/6J mice were randomly divided into the following three groups:sham operation group,model group,and Zhilong Capsule group(6.24 g/kg),with 10 mice in each group.In mice in the model group and the Zhilong Capsule group,a mouse MIRI model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch,while mice in the sham operation group underwent threading without ligation.The Zhilong Capsule group began modeling one week after pre-administration and continued to receive intragastric administration for two weeks after modeling once daily.The cardiac function,including the left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF)and left ventricular fraction shortening(LVFS),was assessed by color echocardiography.The myocardial fibrosis and apoptosis were observed by Masson staining and TUNEL staining,respectively.Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to measure the serum contents of lactate dehydrogenase(LDH)and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP).Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry combined with multivariate statistical method was performed for serum metabolite detection and identification analysis.Results Compared with the model group,the mice in the Zhilong Capsule group exhibited an increase in LVEF and LVFS,a reduction in cardiac tissue structure disorder,a decrease in myocardial fibrosis,a decrease in cell apoptosis rate,and a decrease in serum LDH and BNP contents(P<0.05).Metabolomics result showed that intervention with Zhilong Capsule significantly regulated 30 differential metabolites related to MIRI.Important metabolic pathways involved 20 pathways related to tyrosine metabolism,arginine and proline metabolism,and vitamin digestion and absorption.Conclusion Zhilong Capsule has a protective effect on MIRI,and it may achieve this effect by regulating pathways related to tyrosine metabolism,arginine and proline metabolism,and vitamin digestion and absorption.
8.Study of MMP-13 and TGF-β1 in synovial fluid and P-Smad3 in articular cartilage of patients with knee osteoarthritis of liver-kidney deficiency pattern and pattern of intermingled phlegm and blood stasis
Yuxuan LIU ; Xiangchun LIU ; Jian QI ; Jing CHEN ; Qinzhe LIU ; Qianshun WANG ; Tiancheng LYU ; Dian LAN ; Chao YE
Journal of Beijing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2024;47(8):1111-1118
Objective We aimed to compared matrix metalloproteinase-13 (MMP-13) and transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) in synovial fluid,the phosphorylation level of Smad3 in articular cartilage (P-Smad3),and their correlation with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) patterns in patients with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) of liver-kidney deficiency pattern and pattern of intermingled phlegm and blood stasis.Methods Using a cross-sectional field investigation method,KOA patients hospitalized in the Orthopedics Department of Dongzhimen Hospital,Beijing University of Chinese Medicine from September 2019 to February 2023 were collected. A total of 112 KOA patients were included,among which 63 cases were diagnosed with liver-kidney deficiency pattern,and 49 cases were diagnosed with pattern of intermingled phlegm and blood stasis. The intensity of knee pain,function,and X-ray imaging result were quantified using the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS),Lysholm Knee Scoring Scale,and Kellgren-Lawrence (K-L) Grading Scale,respectively. The TCM pattern was identified and quantified using a TCM Pattern Scoring Scale. Immunohistochemistry was used to determine the phosphorylation characteristics of Smad3 in articular cartilage,and ELISA was used to measure the contents of MMP-13 and TGF-β1 in synovial fluid. The level characteristics and their correlation with the degree of syndrome were analyzed.Results (i) There was no statistically significant difference in VAS scores,Lysholm scores,and K-L grades between KOA patients with different TCM patterns. (ii) Compared with KOA patients with pattern of intermingled phlegm and blood stasis,patients with pattern of liver-kidney deficiency had higher levels of MMP-13 in synovial fluid and lower levels of TGF-β1 in synovial fluid (P<0.05). (iii) In KOA patients with liver-kidney deficiency pattern,there was a positive correlation between the level of MMP-13 in synovial fluid and the score of TCM pattern (r=0.292,P=0.020),while there was a negative correlation between the level of TGF-β1 in synovial fluid and the score of TCM pattern (r=-0.781,P<0.001). In KOA patients with pattern of intermingled phlegm and blood stasis,there was also a positive correlation between the level of MMP-13 in synovial fluid and the score of TCM pattern (r=0.936,P<0.001). (iv) The mean optical density value of P-Smad3 in articular cartilage was lower in KOA patients with liver-kidney deficiency pattern than in pattern of intermingled phlegm and blood stasis (P<0.05).Conclusion KOA patients with liver-kidney deficiency pattern or pattern of intermingled phlegm and blood stasis have different levels of TGF-β1 and MMP-13 in synovial fluid,as well as varying degrees of Smad3 phosphorylation in articular cartilage,which is consistent with the analysis of etiology and pathogenesis under different patterns. The levels of TGF-β1 and MMP-13 in synovial fluid of patients with liver-kidney deficiency pattern can reflect the severity of the pattern to a certain extent,and the mechanism may be related to the inhibition of the activation level of the TGF-β/Smad signaling pathway. This study enriches the research content of the material basis of TCM patterns.
9.Neoflavonoids from Dalbergia cochinchinensis and their anti-hypoxia/reoxygenation injury activities on H9c2 myocardial cells
Jia-Hui REN ; Qi-Wan ZHENG ; Xiao-Wei MENG ; Yan PANG ; Lan-Ying CHEN ; Rong-Hua LIU
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2024;46(1):126-132
AIM To study the neoflavonoids from Dalbergia cochinchinensis Pierre ex Laness and their anti-hypoxia/reoxygenation injury activities on H9c2 myocardial cells.METHODS The 70%ethanol extract from D.cochinchinensis was isolated and purified by silica gel,Sephadex LH-20 and reverse-preparative HPLC,then the structures of obtained compounds were identified by physicochemical properties and spectral data.The CCK-8 method was used to detect their activities on H9c2 cells and protective effects on hypoxia-reoxygenation injury of H9c2 cells,and their structure-activity relationship was analyzed.RESULTS Twelve compounds were isolated and identified as latifolin(1),5-O-methyllatifolin(2),mimosifoliol(3),5-O-methydalbergiphenol(4),dalbergiphenol(5),cearoin(6),2,4-dihydroxy-5-methoxy-benzophenone(7),2-hydroxy-4,5-dimethoxybenzophenone(8),melannoin(9),2,2′,5-trihydroxy-4-methoxybenzophenone(10),dalbergin(11),4-methoxydalbergione(12).The dalbergiphenols and dalbergins had little toxicity to H9c2 cells,and dalbergiphenols had strong activity against hypoxia-reoxygenation injury of H9c2 cells.CONCLUSION Compound 8 is a new natural product.Compounds 4,9 are isolated from this plant for the first time.Dalbergiphenols may be the main neoflavonoids against hypoxia-reoxygenation injury of H9c2 cells.
10.Construction of a predictive model of death for sepsis-associated acute kidney injury
Xiaohan LI ; Changju ZHU ; Chao LAN ; Qi LIU
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2024;36(4):381-386
Objective:To establish a predictive model nomogram for 30-day death in patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) by using the data from the large international database, the Electronic Intensive Care Unit-Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), and to validate its predictive performance.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the eICU-CRD. Data of SA-AKI patients were screened from the eICU-CRD database, including demographic characteristics, medical history, SA-AKI type, Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO)-AKI staging, severity of illness scores, vital signs, laboratory indicators, and treatment measures; with admission time as the observation start point, death as the outcome event, and a follow-up time of 30 days. Relevant variables of patients with different 30-day prognoses were compared. Univariate Logistic regression analysis and multivariate Logistic regression forward likelihood ratio analysis were used to screen for risk factors associated with 30-day death in SA-AKI patients, and a predictive model nomogram was constructed. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to validate the predictive performance of the model.Results:A total of 201 SA-AKI patients' data were finally enrolled, among which 51 survived for 30 days and 150 died, with a mortality of 74.63%. Compared with the survival group, patients in the death group were older [years old: 68 (60, 78) vs. 59 (52, 69), P < 0.01], had lower body weight, proportion of transient SA-AKI, platelet count (PLT) and blood glucose [body weight (kg): 79 (65, 95) vs. 91 (71, 127), proportion of transient SA-AKI: 61.33% (92/150) vs. 82.35% (42/51), PLT (×10 9/L): 207 (116, 313) vs. 260 (176, 338), blood glucose (mmol/L): 5.5 (4.4, 7.1) vs. 6.4 (5.1, 7.6), all P < 0.05] and higher proportion of persistent SA-AKI, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, lactic acid (Lac), and total bilirubin [TBil; proportion of persistent SA-AKI: 38.67% (58/150) vs. 17.65% (9/51), SOFA score: 7 (5, 22) vs. 5 (2, 7), Lac (mmol/L): 0.4 (0.2, 0.7) vs. 0.3 (0.2, 0.4), TBil (μmol/L): 41.0 (17.1, 51.3) vs. 18.8 (17.1, 34.2), all P < 0.05]. Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age [odds ratio ( OR) = 1.035, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.013-1.058, P = 0.002], body weight ( OR = 0.987, 95% CI was 0.977-0.996, P = 0.007), persistent SA-AKI ( OR = 2.942, 95% CI was 1.333-6.491, P = 0.008), SOFA score ( OR = 1.073, 95% CI was 1.020-1.129, P = 0.006), PLT ( OR = 0.998, 95% CI was 0.996-1.000, P = 0.034), Lac ( OR = 1.142, 95% CI was 1.009-1.292, P = 0.035), TBil ( OR = 1.422, 95% CI was 1.070-1.890, P = 0.015) were associated with 30-day death risk in SA-AKI patients. Multivariate Logistic regression forward likelihood ratio analysis showed that age ( OR = 1.051, 95% CI was 1.023-1.079, P = 0.000), body weight ( OR = 0.985, 95% CI was 0.974-0.995, P = 0.005), cardiovascular disease ( OR = 9.055, 95% CI was 1.037-79.084, P = 0.046), persistent SA-AKI ( OR = 3.020, 95% CI was 1.258-7.249, P = 0.013), SOFA score ( OR = 1.076, 95% CI was 1.013-1.143, P = 0.017), and PLT ( OR = 0.997, 95% CI was 0.995-1.000, P = 0.030) were independent risk factors for 30-day death in SA-AKI patients. Based on the above risk factors, a predictive model nomogram for 30-day death in SA-AKI patients was constructed. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model was 0.798 (95% CI was 0.722-0.873), with a sensitivity of 86.7% and a specificity of 62.7%. Calibration curve showed that the fitted curve was close to the standard line, indicating that the predicted probability was close to the actual probability, suggesting good predictive performance of the model. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ 2 = 6.393, df = 8, P = 0.603 > 0.05, suggesting that the model could fit the observed data well. The quality of model fitting was judged by the accuracy of model prediction. The results showed that the prediction accuracy rate of the model was 95.3%, and the overall prediction accuracy rate of the model was 81.6%, indicating good model fitting. Conclusion:A predictive model for 30-day death in SA-AKI patients based on risk factors can be successfully constructed, and the model has high accuracy, sensitivity, reliability, and certain specificity, which can help to early identify high-risk patients for death and adopt more proactive treatment strategies.

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