In acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria, there is a continuum from mild to severe malaria. However, no mathematical system is available to predict uncomplicated falciparum malaria patients turning to severe malaria. This study aimed to devise a simple and reliable model of Malaria Severity Prognostic Score (MSPS). The study was performed in adult patients with acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria admitted to the Bangkok Hospital for Tropical Diseases between 2000 and 2005. Total 38 initial clinical parameters were identified to predict the usual recovery or deterioration to severe malaria. The stepwise multiple discriminant analysis was performed to get a linear discriminant equation. The results showed that 4.3% of study patients turned to severe malaria. The MSPS = 4.38 (schizontemia) + 1.62 (gametocytemia) + 1.17 (dehydration) + 0.14 (overweight by body mass index; BMI) + 0.05 (initial pulse rate) + 0.04 (duration of fever before admission) - 0.50 (past history of malaria in last 1 year) - 0.48 (initial serum albumin) - 5.66. Based on the validation study in other malaria patients, the sensitivity and specificity were 88.8% and 88.4%, respectively. We conclude that the MSPS is a simple screening tool for predicting uncomplicated falciparum malaria patients turning to severe malaria. However, the MSPS may need revalidation in different geographical areas before utilized at specific places.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Animals ; Disease Progression ; Female ; Humans ; Malaria, Falciparum/*diagnosis/pathology/physiopathology ; Male ; Multivariate Analysis ; Prognosis ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Severity of Illness Index ; Thailand ; Treatment Outcome

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is currently promoted as a strategy for treating both uncomplicated and severe falciparum malaria, targeting asexual blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum parasites. However, the effect of ACT on sexual-stage parasites remains controversial. To determine the clearance of sexual-stage P. falciparum parasites from 342 uncomplicated, and 217 severe, adult malaria cases, we reviewed and followed peripheral blood sexualstage parasites for 4 wk after starting ACT. All patients presented with both asexual and sexual stage parasites on admission, and were treated with artesunate-mefloquine as the standard regimen. The results showed that all patients were asymptomatic and negative for asexual forms before discharge from hospital. The percentages of uncomplicated malaria patients positive for gametocytes on days 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28 were 41.5, 13.1, 3.8, 2.0, and 2.0%, while the percentages of gametocyte positive severe malaria patients on days 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28 were 33.6, 8.2, 2.7, 0.9, and 0.9%, respectively. Although all patients were negative for asexual parasites by day 7 after completion of the artesunate-mefloquine course, gametocytemia persisted in some patients. Thus, a gametocytocidal drug, e.g., primaquine, may be useful in combination with an artesunate-mefloquine regimen to clear gametocytes, so blocking transmission more effectively than artesunate alone, in malaria transmission areas.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Animals ; Antimalarials/*pharmacology/therapeutic use ; Artemisinins/*pharmacology/therapeutic use ; Drug Evaluation ; Drug Therapy, Combination ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Germ Cells/*drug effects/growth & development ; Humans ; Malaria, Falciparum/*drug therapy/parasitology ; Male ; Mefloquine/*pharmacology/therapeutic use ; Plasmodium falciparum/*drug effects/growth & development ; Severity of Illness Index ; Thailand ; Treatment Outcome