BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: An elevated intracellular calcium level is known to be a major initiator and activator of ischemic cell death pathway; however, in recent studies, elevated serum calcium levels have been associated with better clinical outcomes and smaller cerebral infarct volumes. The pathophysiological role played by calcium in ischemic stroke is largely unknown. METHODS: Acute stroke patients from a prospective stroke registry, consecutively admitted during October 2002-September 2008, were included. Significant associations between the modified Rankin scale distribution at discharge and serum calcium or albumin-corrected calcium were identified using ordinal logistic regression analysis. Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analysis. RESULTS: Mean serum calcium and albumin-corrected calcium levels of the 1,915 participants on admission were 8.97+/-0.58 mg/dL and 9.07+/-0.49 mg/dL, respectively. Second [adjusted odds ratio 1.32 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.61)] and third [1.24 (1.01-1.53)] tertiles of serum calcium level and the third [1.24 (1.01-1.53)] tertile of albumin-corrected calcium level were found to be independent risk factors for a poor discharge outcome. Significant relationships were observed with serum calcium [1.19 (1.03-1.38)] and albumin-corrected calcium [1.21(1.01-1.44)] as linear variables. However, only albumin-corrected calcium was associated with long-term mortality, third tertile [adjusted hazard ratio 1.40 (1.07-1.83)], and increase by 1 mg/dL [1.46 (1.16-1.84)]. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated albumin-corrected serum calcium levels are associated with a poorer short-term outcome and greater risk of long-term mortality after acute ischemic stroke.
Calcium* ; Cell Death ; Cerebral Infarction ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Mortality* ; Odds Ratio ; Patient Outcome Assessment ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Stroke*

This paper aims to construct a Bayesian(BN) fault diagnosis model of traditional Chinese medicine dry granulation based on the failure model and effect analysis(FMEA), effectively control risk factors and ensure the quality of granules.Firstly, the risk ana-lysis of dry granulation process was carried out with FMEA, and the selected medium and high risk factors were taken as node variables to establish corresponding BN network with causality.According to the mathematical reasoning method of probability theory, the model was accurately inferred and verified by Netica, and the granule nonconformance was used as the evidence for reversed reasoning to determine the most likely cause of the failure that affected the granule quality.The BN fault diagnosis model of traditional Chinese medicine dry gra-nulation was established based on the medium and high risk factors of process, prescription and equipment screened out by FMEA, such as roller pressure, raw material viscosity, clearance between rollers in the paper.The fault diagnosis of traditional Chinese medicine dry granulation process was then carried out according to the model, and the posterior probability of each node under the premise of nonconforming granule quality was obtained.This method could provide strong support for operators to quickly eliminate faults and make decisions, so as to improve the efficiency and accuracy for fault diagnosis and prediction, with innovation in its application.
Bayes Theorem ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Probability

OBJECTIVETo evaluate the contribution of individual risk factor to a disease on someone with several risk factors.

METHODSA method based on epidemiological theory and Bayes' theorem was established to measure the contribution of individual risk factor, using the relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) value obtained from population-based cohort studies or meta-analysis.

RESULTSThe proportional contribution for individual risk factor to disease in one person can be measured or estimated.

CONCLUSIONThis method can be applied to risk assessment in a patient with more than one risk factor, and the results also contribute to our etiological study and clinical decision-making strategy.

Bayes Theorem ; Data Interpretation, Statistical ; Disease ; etiology ; Epidemiologic Methods ; Epidemiologic Studies ; Humans ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Micro ribonucleic acid-150-5p (miR-150-5p) regulates proinflammatory cytokines as well as vessel integrity. We evaluated the incremental prognostic value of logarithm (log) of miR-150-5p plasma levels after ischemic stroke. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, levels of miR-150-5p were measured within 72 hours of symptom onset in 329 ischemic stroke patients. The outcome measures were unfavorable functional outcome (assessed by the modified Rankin Scale score >2) and mortality within 90 days. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate odds ratio (OR), respectively hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association between log-miR-150-5p and the outcome measures. The discriminatory accuracy was assessed with the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) and the incremental prognostic value was estimated with the net reclassification index. RESULTS: After adjusting for demographic and vascular risk factors, lower log-miR-150-5p levels were independently associated with mortality (HR 0.21 [95% CI, 0.08–0.51], P=0.001) but not functional outcome (OR 1.10 [95% CI, 0.54–2.25], P=0.79). Adding log-miR-150-5p improved the discriminatory accuracy of the best multivariate model to predict mortality from an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88–0.95) to 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88–0.96 Likelihood-ratio test-P < 0.001), and resulted in a net reclassification index of 37.3% (95% CI, 0.28–0.52). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with ischemic stroke, log-miR-150-5p is a novel prognostic biomarker, highly associated with mortality within 90 days, improving risk classification beyond traditional risk factors.
Area Under Curve ; Biomarkers ; Classification* ; Cohort Studies ; Cytokines ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; MicroRNAs* ; Mortality* ; Odds Ratio ; Outcome Assessment (Health Care) ; Plasma ; Prognosis ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Stroke*

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Obesity is a risk factor for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), with several studies demonstrating positive associations between body mass index (BMI) and GERD symptoms. However, little is known about the effect of BMI changes on erosive esophagitis (EE). In this study, we investigated whether BMI reduction could resolve EE. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed to assess the natural course of EE according to changes in BMI. Participants undergoing health check-ups from 2006 to 2012 were enrolled, and 1,126 subjects with EE were included. The degree of esophagitis was measured by upper endoscopy and serially checked over a 5-year follow-up. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the association between BMI reduction and EE resolution. RESULTS: Substantial weight loss is associated with EE resolution. The adjusted odds ratio for EE resolution was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.92) among participants with a decrease in BMI compared to those with no decrease in BMI. The EE resolution rate was related to the degree of BMI reduction. The effect of weight loss on EE resolution was higher among subjects who lost more weight. Compared with subjects with no decrease in BMI, the hazard ratios for EE resolution were 1.09 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.35), 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.72) and 2.12 (95% CI, 1.44 to 3.12) in subjects with BMI reductions of ≤1, 1–2, and >2 kg/m2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EE resolution is associated with a decrease in BMI, and weight loss is potentially an effective GERD treatment.
Body Mass Index ; Cohort Studies ; Endoscopy ; Esophagitis* ; Follow-Up Studies* ; Gastroesophageal Reflux ; Logistic Models ; Obesity ; Odds Ratio ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Weight Loss*

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the most important, and yet modifiable, risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. But in many countries, hypertension remains poorly controlled. Moreover, sleep apnea syndrome has shown that it is correlated with hypertension. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence, awareness and control of hypertension among the Korean people and to evaluate the relationship between hypertension and snoring. METHODS: A total of 640 subjects living in Ansan, a regional city in Korea, were selected randomly, and trained nursing students investigated their age, sex, medical history, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and snoring score. Blood pressures were measured three times with a 10 - minute interval and then averaged. The degree of snoring was estimated using a questionnaire. We divided the subjects into hypertensive (BP> OR =140/90 mmHg) versus normotensive group and snorer versus non-snorer group, and correlated hypertension with snoring. RESULTS: Of 640 subjects, 311 were male. The mean age was 39.7+/-14.6 years (18-77 years), the mean BMI (body mass index) was 22.4+/-3.0 kg/m2. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure was 121+/-15.7 mmHg and 79.5+/-11.6 mmHg. The prevalence and awareness of hypertension were 22.2% and 16.9%, respectively, and the prevalence of snoring was 35.2%. With the increment of age, in the male, the prevalence of hypertension and snoring were higher, and the snorer group showed a higher risk of hypertension than the non-snorer group (Odds ratio 2.32, CI=1.56-3.39, p=0.0001). CONCLUSION: In Korea, the prevalence of hypertension was similar to that in the western countries, but the awareness of hypertension was much lower compared with western countries. The prevalence of hypertension was higher in the snorer group, so more research on the correlation between the two conditions should be advanced in the future.
Adolescent ; Adult ; Age Distribution ; Aged ; Comorbidity ; Comparative Study ; Confidence Intervals ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Female ; Human ; Hypertension/diagnosis/*epidemiology ; Korea/epidemiology ; Male ; Middle Age ; Odds Ratio ; Prevalence ; Probability ; Risk Assessment ; Sex Distribution ; Snoring/diagnosis/*epidemiology

OBJECTIVE: Providing a risk assessment method for the implementation of radiotherapy to identify possible risks in the implementation of the treatment process, and proposing measures to reduce or prevent these risks. METHODS: A multidisciplinary expert evaluation team was developed and the radiotherapy treatment process flow was drawn. Through the expert team, the failure mode analysis is carried out in each step of the flow chart. The results were summarized and the (risk priority ordinal) score was obtained, and the quantitative evaluation results of the whole process risk were obtained. RESULTS: One hundred and six failure modes were obtained, risk assessment of (20%) high risk failure model are 22 and severity (≥ 8) high risk failure model are 27. The reasons for the failures were man-made errors or hardware and software failures. CONCLUSIONS Failure mode and effect analysis can be used to evaluate the risk assessment of radiotherapy, and it provides a new solution for risk control in radiotherapy field.
Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ; Risk Assessment

BACKGROUND: We examined the clinical and angiographic outcomes, success rate of the percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and long-term survival rate after primary or rescue PCI in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) according to the level of the C-Reactive Protein (CRP) on admission. METHODS: Two hundred and eight consecutive patients with AMI who underwent primary or rescue PCI between 1997 and 1999 at Chonnam National University Hospital were divided into two groups: Group I (n=86, 59.9+/-9.3 years, male 74.4%) with a normal CRP (< 1.0 mg/dL, mean value=0.43+/-0.14 mg/dL) on admission and Group II (n=122, 59.1+/-10.4 years, male 83.6%) with an elevated CRP (> or==1.0 mg/dL, mean value=3.50+/-0.93 mg/dL) on admission. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the baseline characteristics noted between the two groups. The incidence of cardiogenic shock was higher in Group II than in Group I (Group I; 3/86, 3.5% vs. Group II; 15/122, 12.3%, p=0.026). The coronary angiographic findings did not differ between the two groups. The ejection fraction and Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction flow grade improved after PCI in both groups. The primary success rate of PCI was 94.2% (81/86) in Group I and 95.1% (116/122) in Group II (p=0.776). The survival rates for Group I were 97.7%, 97.7% and 96.5%, and those for Group II were 91.8%, 91.0% and 86.9% at 1, 6 and 12 months, respectively (p=0.043 at 1 month, p=0.040 at 6 months, p=0.018 at 12 months). CONCLUSION: A high incidence of cardiogenic shock and worse long-term survival after PCI are observed in AMI patients with an elevated CRP.
Age Factors ; Aged ; Angioplasty, Transluminal, Percutaneous Coronary/*methods/mortality ; Biological Markers/analysis ; C-Reactive Protein/analysis/*metabolism ; Chi-Square Distribution ; Cohort Studies ; Coronary Angiography ; Female ; Humans ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Myocardial Infarction/*mortality/radiography/*therapy ; Probability ; Prognosis ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Assessment ; Severity of Illness Index ; Sex Factors ; Survival Analysis ; Time Factors ; Treatment Outcome

OBJECTIVETo study the application of Bayes probability model in differentiating yin and yang jaundice syndromes in neonates.

METHODSTotally 107 jaundice neonates who admitted to hospital within 10 days after birth were assigned to two groups according to syndrome differentiation, 68 in the yang jaundice syndrome group and 39 in the yin jaundice syndrome group. Data collected for neonates were factors related to jaundice before, during and after birth. Blood routines, liver and renal functions, and myocardial enzymes were tested on the admission day or the next day. Logistic regression model and Bayes discriminating analysis were used to screen factors important for yin and yang jaundice syndrome differentiation. Finally, Bayes probability model for yin and yang jaundice syndromes was established and assessed.

RESULTSFactors important for yin and yang jaundice syndrome differentiation screened by Logistic regression model and Bayes discriminating analysis included mothers' age, mother with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), gestational age, asphyxia, or ABO hemolytic diseases, red blood cell distribution width (RDW-SD), platelet-large cell ratio (P-LCR), serum direct bilirubin (DBIL), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), cholinesterase (CHE). Bayes discriminating analysis was performed by SPSS to obtain Bayes discriminant function coefficient. Bayes discriminant function was established according to discriminant function coefficients. Yang jaundice syndrome: y1= -21. 701 +2. 589 x mother's age + 1. 037 x GDM-17. 175 x asphyxia + 13. 876 x gestational age + 6. 303 x ABO hemolytic disease + 2.116 x RDW-SD + 0. 831 x DBIL + 0. 012 x ALP + 1. 697 x LCR + 0. 001 x CHE; Yin jaundice syndrome: y2= -33. 511 + 2.991 x mother's age + 3.960 x GDM-12. 877 x asphyxia + 11. 848 x gestational age + 1. 820 x ABO hemolytic disease +2. 231 x RDW-SD +0. 999 x DBIL +0. 023 x ALP +1. 916 x LCR +0. 002 x CHE. Bayes discriminant function was hypothesis tested and got Wilks' λ =0. 393 (P =0. 000). So Bayes discriminant function was proved to be with statistical difference. To check Bayes probability model in discriminating yin and yang jaundice syndromes, coincidence rates for yin and yang jaundice syndromes were both 90% plus.

CONCLUSIONYin and yang jaundice syndromes in neonates could be accurately judged by Bayesian discriminating functions.

Bayes Theorem ; Hospitalization ; Humans ; Infant, Newborn ; Jaundice ; diagnosis ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Models, Statistical ; Probability ; Syndrome

OBJECTIVE: To prevent the occurrence of CV events such as MI and stroke among professional drivers in Korea, bus drivers were compared to other occupations through the Framingham risk scoring system (FRS) or metabolic syndrome (MS) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment methods. METHODS: In October 2012, a health examination survey was conducted for 443 male bus drivers in a big city. Their CVD risk factors were compared to those of a 'total employed' (A group) and 'crafts and machine operators' (B group) extracted from Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES, 2010) data by using FRS and MS. We calculated proportions of the CVD risk factors distribution between bus drivers and the A, B groups by the bootstrapping method. The Odds ratio (OR) between CV event risk combining MS with CHD equivalent risk of FRS and occupational factors like shift patterns and professional driving duration/age ratios (PDAR) of bus drivers was calculated through multinominal logistic regression. RESULTS: The proportion of BMI > or = 25 kg/m2 was 53.9% and waist circumference > or = 90cm was 40.9% among bus drivers. Hypertension and MS prevalence of bus drivers was 53.3%, 49.9% which is higher than 17.6%, 22.6% in the A group and 19.7%, 23.8% in the B group respectively. OR of high CV event risk in alternate shift was 2.58 (95% CI 1.33~5.00) in comparison with double shift pattern and OR in PDAR > or = 0.5 was 2.18 (95% CI 1.15~4.14). CONCLUSION: Middle aged male drivers in a big city of Korea stand a higher chance of developing CV event than other professions of the same age.
Cardiovascular Diseases* ; Humans ; Hypertension ; Korea* ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Methods ; Middle Aged ; Nutrition Surveys ; Occupations ; Odds Ratio ; Prevalence ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Stroke ; Waist Circumference