It is very important to estimate the future medical care expenditure, because medical care expenditure escalation is a big problem not only in the health industry but also in the Korean economy today. This study was designed to project the medical care expenditure in view of population age change. The data of this study were the population projection data based on National Census Data (1990) of the National Statistical Office and the Statistical Reports of the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The future medical care expenditure was eatimated by the regression model and the optional simulation model. The significant results are as follows; 1. The future medical care expenditure will be 3,963 billion Won in the year 2000, 4,483 billion Won in 2010, and 4,826 billion Won in 2020, based on the 1990 market price considering only the population age change. 2. The proportion of the total medical care expenditure in the elderly over 65 will be 10. 4% in 2000, 13.5% in 2010, and 16.9% in 2020. 3. The future medical care expenditure will be 4,306 billion Won in the year 2000, 5,1101 billion Won in 2010, and 5, 699 billion Won in 2020 based on the 1990 market price considering the age structure change and the change of the case-cost estimated by the regression model. 4. When we consider the age-structure change and inflation compared with the preceding year, the future medical care expenditurein 2020 will be 21 trillion Won based on a 5% inflation rate, 42 trillion Won based on a 7.5% inflation rate, and 84 trillion Won based on a 10% inflation rate. Consideration of the aged (65 years old and over)will be essential to understand the acute increase of medical care expenditure due to changes in age structure of the population. Therefore, alternative policies and programs for the caring of the aged should be further studied.
Aged ; Censuses ; Population Forecast ; Health Expenditures* ; Humans ; Inflation, Economic ; Insurance ; Korea

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis and resultant fracture seems to be the most common skeletal disease, affecting female exclusively. Osteoporosis increases exponentially with menopause and age. Therefore the demographic data seems to be the most important & fundamental for the study of osteoporosis epidemiology. METHODS: This study was to analyzed population projection from 1960 to 2060. We evaluated the demographic change of female, postmenopausal and elderly geripausal population in South Korea using Korean statistical information service database as basic fundamental data for osteoporosis epidemiology. RESULTS: According to population projection, the total female population will be exceeds the total male population since 2015 and maximize up to 2030. In 2030, nearly half of female will become postmenopausal and one fourth of women elderly will be geripausal. Of total female population in 2060, the proportion of postmenopausal women will be increased up to 59.8%. CONCLUSIONS: According to population projection in South Korea, six of ten women in 2060 will be postmenopausal and seven of ten postmenopausal women geripausal. As expected to increase proportion of elderly women, dramatic rise of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fracture also expected. Health providers pay more attention to postmenopausal and geripausal women health care.
Aged ; Demography ; Epidemiology ; Female ; Population Forecast ; Humans ; Information Services ; Korea ; Male ; Menopause ; Osteoporosis ; Osteoporotic Fractures ; Women's Health

BACKGROUND: Significant ethnic and geographic differences exist in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, which has increased dramatically in South Korea. But a few population-based studies were performed in South Korea. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the American Diabetic Association (ADA) diagnostic categories, and to investigate their associated risk factors. METHODS: Between march 22, 1999 and July 14, 1999, a random sampling of 1445 residents over 40 year of age in five villages in the Namwon county of South Korea was carried out. Among these subjects, 665 (46.0%) participants completed 75 g OGTT. WHO and ADA diagnostic criteria were used for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, IGT and IFG. Detailed questionnaire were performed and anthropometric data were collected. RESULTS: After age-adjustment for population projection for Korea (1999), the prevalence of diabetes and IGT were 13.7% and 13.8% with WHO criteria, while the prevalence of diabetes, IGT and IFG were 15.8%, 12.8% and 5.7% with ADA criteria. The age-adjusted prevalence of previously diagnosed diabetes was 5.8%. The level of agreement between WHO and ADA diagnostic criteria except IFG was high (K=0.94; p<0.001). The ROC curve analysis determined FSG of 114.5 mg/dL (6.4 mmol/L) to yield optimal sensitivity and specificity corresponding to a PP2SG 200 mg/dL (11.1 mmol/L). The prevalence of diabetes and IGT with ADA diagnostic criteria rose with increasing age (p<0.05). The difference in the prevalence of diabetes, IGT and IFG by BMI was not significant. The prevalence of diabetes rose with increase in the waist-hip ratio. The prevalence of diabetes was increased in subjects with dyslipidemia (Odds ratio 2.29, 95% CI: 1.16-3.49). CONCLUSION: The age-adjusted prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus in populations over 40 year of age in the Namwon county was substantially higher than previously observed. Ethnic differences in obesity with BMI and in the effect on diabetes risk of obesity may exist in the Korean population. The adequate cut-off point for fasting serum glucose was lower than that by the ADA diagnostic category. These results may show that not only fasting serum glucose but also postprandial 2-h serum glucose are important for diagnosing diabetes in Korean.
Aged* ; Blood Glucose ; Diabetes Mellitus* ; Diagnosis ; Dyslipidemias ; Fasting ; Population Forecast ; Glucose ; Glucose Tolerance Test ; Humans ; Jeollabuk-do* ; Korea* ; Obesity ; Prevalence* ; Risk Factors ; ROC Curve ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Waist-Hip Ratio ; World Health Organization ; Surveys and Questionnaires