OBJECTIVES: To explore and analyze the epidemic features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hunan Province from January 21, 2020 to March 14, 2020, as well as to investigate the COVID-19 epidemics in each city of Hunan Province. METHODS: The epidemic data was obtained from the official website of Hunan Province's Health Commission. The data of each city of Hunan Province was analyzed separately. Spatial distribution of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 patients and the cumulative occurrence rate was drawn by ArcGIS software for each city in Hunan Province. Some regional indexes were also compared with that in the whole country. RESULTS: The first patient was diagnosed in January 21, sustained patient growth reached its plateau in around February 17. Up to March 14, the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 patients stopped at 1 018. The cumulative occurrence rate of COVID-19 patients was 0.48 per 0.1 million person. The number of cumulative severe patients was 150 and the number of cumulative dead patients was 4. The mortality rate (0.39%) and the cure rate (99.6%) in Hunan Province was significantly lower and higher respectively than the corresponding average rate in the whole country (0.90% and 96.2%, Hubei excluded). The first 3 cities in numbers of the confirmed patients were Changsha, Yueyang, and Shaoyang. While sorted by the cumulative occurrence rate, the first 3 cities in incidence were Changsha, Yueyang, and Zhuzhou. CONCLUSIONS The epidemic of COVID-19 spread out smoothly in Hunan Province. The cities in Hunan Province implement anti-disease strategies based on specific situations on their own and keep the epidemic in the range of controllable.
Betacoronavirus ; China ; epidemiology ; Cities ; epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; mortality ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology ; mortality

OBJECTIVE: To establish a SEIR epidemic dynamics model that can be used to evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic, and to predict and evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei province using the proposed model. METHODS: COVID-19 SEIR transmission dynamics model was established, which took transmission ability in latent period and tracking quarantine interventions into consideration. Based on the epidemic data of Hubei province from January 23, 2020 to February 24, 2020, the parameters of the newly established modified SEIR model were fitted. By using Euler integral algorithm to solve the modified SEIR dynamics model, the epidemic situation in Hubei province was analyzed, and the impact of prevention and control measures such as quarantine and centralized treatment on the epidemic development was discussed. RESULTS: The theoretical estimation of the epidemic situation by the modified SEIR epidemic dynamics model is in good agreement with the actual situation in Hubei province. Theoretical analysis showed that prevention and control quarantine and medical follow-up quarantine played an important inhibitory effect on the outbreak of the epidemic.The centralized treatment played a key role in the rapid decline in the number of infected people. In addition, it is suggested that individuals should improve their prevention awareness and take strict self-protection measures to curb the increase in infected people. CONCLUSIONS The modified SEIR model is reliable in the evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei province, which provides a theoretical reference for the decision-making of epidemic interventions.
Algorithms ; Betacoronavirus ; isolation & purification ; China ; epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; Humans ; Models, Biological ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology

BACKGROUND: The ongoing new coronavirus pneumonia (Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19) outbreak is spreading in China, but it has not yet reached its peak. Five million people emigrated from Wuhan before lockdown, potentially representing a source of virus infection. Determining case distribution and its correlation with population emigration from Wuhan in the early stage of the epidemic is of great importance for early warning and for the prevention of future outbreaks. METHODS: The official case report on the COVID-19 epidemic was collected as of January 30, 2020. Time and location information on COVID-19 cases was extracted and analyzed using ArcGIS and WinBUGS software. Data on population migration from Wuhan city and Hubei province were extracted from Baidu Qianxi, and their correlation with the number of cases was analyzed. RESULTS: The COVID-19 confirmed and death cases in Hubei province accounted for 59.91% (5806/9692) and 95.77% (204/213) of the total cases in China, respectively. Hot spot provinces included Sichuan and Yunnan, which are adjacent to Hubei. The time risk of Hubei province on the following day was 1.960 times that on the previous day. The number of cases in some cities was relatively low, but the time risk appeared to be continuously rising. The correlation coefficient between the provincial number of cases and emigration from Wuhan was up to 0.943. The lockdown of 17 cities in Hubei province and the implementation of nationwide control measures efficiently prevented an exponential growth in the number of cases. CONCLUSIONS The population that emigrated from Wuhan was the main infection source in other cities and provinces. Some cities with a low number of cases showed a rapid increase in case load. Owing to the upcoming Spring Festival return wave, understanding the risk trends in different regions is crucial to ensure preparedness at both the individual and organization levels and to prevent new outbreaks.
Betacoronavirus ; China ; epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; Emigration and Immigration ; Epidemics ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology

Animals ; Betacoronavirus ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; Disease Outbreaks ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology ; Zoonoses ; epidemiology

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early December 2019, 81 174 confirmed cases and 3242 deaths have been reported in China as of March 19, 2020. The Chinese people and government have contributed huge efforts to combat this disease, resulting in significant improvement of the situation, with 58 new cases (34 were imported cases) and 11 new deaths reported on March 19, 2020. However, as of March 19, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to develop in 167 countries/territories outside of China, and 128 665 confirmed cases and 5536 deaths have been reported, with 16 498 new cases and 817 new deaths occurring in last 24 hours. Therefore, the world should work together to fight against this pandemic. Here, we review the recent advances in COVID-19, including the insights in the virus, the responses of the host cells, the cytokine release syndrome, and the therapeutic approaches to inhibit the virus and alleviate the cytokine storm. By sharing knowledge and deepening our understanding of the virus and the disease pathogenesis, we believe that the community can efficiently develop effective vaccines and drugs, and the mankind will eventually win this battle against this pandemic.
Betacoronavirus ; China ; epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; therapy ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology ; therapy

Betacoronavirus ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; Humans ; Melanoma ; diagnosis ; therapy ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology ; Skin Neoplasms ; diagnosis ; therapy

The ongoing pandemic coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) remains a significant issue for global health, economics, and society. In order to balance epidemic control and economic recovery, many countries have successively announced the gradual relaxation of some lockdown restrictions. Hospitals and medical staff constitute the backbone in this war against COVID-19. In response to this serious situation, many hospitals went into emergency and impaired healthcare access to patients with conditions other than COVID-19. Therefore, gradually promoting hospital operations and functions back to the new normal is important, especially when this outbreak has been effectively controlled. In this study, we introduce existing and potential problems that could seriously affect people's health. Additionally, we propose that an especial transition phase between the emergency and regular modes of hospitals can be well adapted to the current situation.
Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; Health Policy ; trends ; Hospitals ; standards ; trends ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology

Betacoronavirus ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; psychology ; Emergencies ; Humans ; Mental Health ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology ; psychology ; Social Support

Betacoronavirus ; Biomedical Research ; methods ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; Global Health ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology

Bias ; Coronavirus Infections ; epidemiology ; transmission ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pneumonia, Viral ; epidemiology ; transmission ; Uncertainty