Background: Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a major public health concern, but with minimal data on how this affects the Lao population. Objective: We aimed at predicting the impact of the burden of DM, and determine the effectiveness of DM screening techniques to reduce related mortality in Lao PDR. Methods: A compartmentally deterministic model was created to reflect the demography in 2005 and 2015, and DM prevalence in 2015 of the Vientiane capital population. The parameters were retrieved from calibration and literature reviews. The model predicted demographic structure and DM in 2035. The effectiveness of DM screening tests, either Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), was examined in term of mortality reduction. Results: By 2035, the Vientiane population is expected to have annual grow of 0.89% with higher proportion of more elderly people; those aged 45 years old and older are expected to account for 39.3% in 2035. Overall prevalence of DM was expected to rise from 9.65% in 2015 to 13.4% in 2035 as a result of the aging population. The model predicts that the prevalence of DM would double (28.42%) in those aged >60 years old by 2035. The mortality rate is expected to increase more than double from 890 in 2015 to 1,808 deaths per 100,000 people in 2035, with the highest rate in those with undiagnosed diabetes and those older than 60 years. Screening by FPG test at an initial age of 35 years old is estimated to reduce mortality by 17.93%, and 16.80% for initial age screening at 45 years. Screening by HbA1c test would slightly increase the mortality reduction by approximately 1.20% at both initial screening ages. Conclusion This mathematical modeling projected the steadily increase of prevalence and death related to DM over 30 years of simulation. Early screening by glycemia would reduce the mortality.

Background: Outbreaks of vaccine preventable-disease control and elimination are impeded by impaired focal vaccination uptake. Therefore, we aimed at assessing vaccination uptake and comparing with passive surveillance (PS) report at village level. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted in the villages covered by two health centers in Bolikhamxay province, including non-Hmong and Hmong ethnic groups. Data collection was conducted by interviewing mothers or caregivers of children aged 6 to 23 months. The vaccination status was identified by vaccination cards, and compared with PS report at village level, which was collected from health centers. The Pearson’s chi-square test was used to compare these proportions, and pairwise correlation was used for the correlation of observed vaccination coverage. Finding: Sixteen villages were included, nine were from Luk52 health center area and 7 from Namkhou health center area. There was a significantly strong correlation for pentavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, Japanese encephalitis, Measles and Rubella and full immunization coverage compared to others. This correlation was not observed in the non-Hmong population. Amongst non-Hmong, the recorded coverage was lower in PS than in the survey regardless of type of vaccine. In contrast, amongst Hmong most vaccines had higher recorded coverage in PS than in the survey except Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) and hepatitis B at birth dose. MR and JEV vaccine, commonly given at the same time, were the only one that did not have significantly different coverage between PS and the survey (p<0.334). Conclusion The mis-estimatation of immunization coverage from the PS reporting system highlights further research needed to determine a better indicator of village-level vaccination coverage, but measles could be an indicator of prioritizing the settings.