Background/Aims: Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy. Methods: This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months. Results: The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions. Conclusions This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.

Background/Aims: Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy. Methods: This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months. Results: The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions. Conclusions This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.

Background/Aims: Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy. Methods: This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months. Results: The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions. Conclusions This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.

Background/Aims: Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy. Methods: This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months. Results: The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions. Conclusions This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency that affects approximately 25% of patients with ulcerative colitis at some point in time in their lives. Outcomes of ASUC are highly variable. Approximately 30% of patients do not respond to corticosteroids and up to 50% of patients do not respond to rescue therapy (infliximab or cyclosporin) and require emergency colectomy. Data are emerging on infliximab dosing strategies, use of cyclosporin as a bridge to slower acting biologic agents and Janus kinase inhibition as primary and sequential therapy. In this review, we outline contemporary approaches to clinical management of ASUC in the setting of failure to respond to traditional rescue therapies.

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency that affects approximately 25% of patients with ulcerative colitis at some point in time in their lives. Outcomes of ASUC are highly variable. Approximately 30% of patients do not respond to corticosteroids and up to 50% of patients do not respond to rescue therapy (infliximab or cyclosporin) and require emergency colectomy. Data are emerging on infliximab dosing strategies, use of cyclosporin as a bridge to slower acting biologic agents and Janus kinase inhibition as primary and sequential therapy. In this review, we outline contemporary approaches to clinical management of ASUC in the setting of failure to respond to traditional rescue therapies.

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency that affects approximately 25% of patients with ulcerative colitis at some point in time in their lives. Outcomes of ASUC are highly variable. Approximately 30% of patients do not respond to corticosteroids and up to 50% of patients do not respond to rescue therapy (infliximab or cyclosporin) and require emergency colectomy. Data are emerging on infliximab dosing strategies, use of cyclosporin as a bridge to slower acting biologic agents and Janus kinase inhibition as primary and sequential therapy. In this review, we outline contemporary approaches to clinical management of ASUC in the setting of failure to respond to traditional rescue therapies.

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency that affects approximately 25% of patients with ulcerative colitis at some point in time in their lives. Outcomes of ASUC are highly variable. Approximately 30% of patients do not respond to corticosteroids and up to 50% of patients do not respond to rescue therapy (infliximab or cyclosporin) and require emergency colectomy. Data are emerging on infliximab dosing strategies, use of cyclosporin as a bridge to slower acting biologic agents and Janus kinase inhibition as primary and sequential therapy. In this review, we outline contemporary approaches to clinical management of ASUC in the setting of failure to respond to traditional rescue therapies.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether topical applications of thiosulfinate-enriched Allium sativum extract (TASE) can accelerate acute cutaneous wound healing (WH) in a murine model. METHODS: Keratinocyte viability and in vitro wound closure were assessed in keratinocyte cultures. Effects of topical TASE (0.5 μg/mL of allicin in 97% ethanol) on acute cutaneous WH were determined in a murine model of acute cutaneous wound. Twelve mice were alternately assigned to the vehicle- and TASE-treated groups (n=6 per group). Expression levels of mRNA for keratinocyte differentiation marker-related proteins (filaggrin, loricrin and involucrin) and lipid synthetic enzymes (elongation of very long chain fatty acids protein 4 (ELOVL4), fatty acid synthase (FA2H), 3-hydroxy- 3-methyl-glutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCoA), and serine palmitoyltransferase (SPT)) were assessed using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction on day 3 and 8 after wounding, while transepidermal water loss (TEWL) rates were measured in wounded areas. RESULTS: TASE accelerated WH both in vivo (40% vs. 22% reduction in wound area, P<0.01) and in vitro (90% vs. 65% reduction in wound area, P<0.01). Moreover, topical applications of TASE upregulated the expression levels of epidermal mRNA for ELOVL4, HMGCoA, SPT, filaggrin, loricrin and involucrin (P<0.05 vs. vehicle-treated controls) on day 3 after wounding. Likewise, TASE significantly lowered TEWL rates in comparison with vehicle alone on day 8 (33.06±2.09 g/(m CONCLUSIONS Topical applications of TASE stimulated keratinocyte proliferation and formation of epidermal permeability barrier function, leading to acceleration of acute cutaneous WH. Topical products containing TASE could be used to manage acute cutaneous WH.

Background: and Purpose Recent studies suggested an increased incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the volume of CVT hospitalization and in-hospital mortality during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the preceding year. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional retrospective study of 171 stroke centers from 49 countries. We recorded COVID-19 admission volumes, CVT hospitalization, and CVT in-hospital mortality from January 1, 2019, to May 31, 2021. CVT diagnoses were identified by International Classification of Disease-10 (ICD-10) codes or stroke databases. We additionally sought to compare the same metrics in the first 5 months of 2021 compared to the corresponding months in 2019 and 2020 (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04934020). Results: There were 2,313 CVT admissions across the 1-year pre-pandemic (2019) and pandemic year (2020); no differences in CVT volume or CVT mortality were observed. During the first 5 months of 2021, there was an increase in CVT volumes compared to 2019 (27.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 24.2 to 32.0; P<0.0001) and 2020 (41.4%; 95% CI, 37.0 to 46.0; P<0.0001). A COVID-19 diagnosis was present in 7.6% (132/1,738) of CVT hospitalizations. CVT was present in 0.04% (103/292,080) of COVID-19 hospitalizations. During the first pandemic year, CVT mortality was higher in patients who were COVID positive compared to COVID negative patients (8/53 [15.0%] vs. 41/910 [4.5%], P=0.004). There was an increase in CVT mortality during the first 5 months of pandemic years 2020 and 2021 compared to the first 5 months of the pre-pandemic year 2019 (2019 vs. 2020: 2.26% vs. 4.74%, P=0.05; 2019 vs. 2021: 2.26% vs. 4.99%, P=0.03). In the first 5 months of 2021, there were 26 cases of vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT), resulting in six deaths. Conclusions During the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic, CVT hospitalization volume and CVT in-hospital mortality did not change compared to the prior year. COVID-19 diagnosis was associated with higher CVT in-hospital mortality. During the first 5 months of 2021, there was an increase in CVT hospitalization volume and increase in CVT-related mortality, partially attributable to VITT.