BACKGROUND/AIMS: The Rockall risk assessment score was developed to predict the risk of rebleeding and death in patients with upper GI hemorrhage. The validity of this score, however, was not established in Korea. We tried to assess the reliability of the Rockall score to predict outcomes in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer. METHODS: Medical records of 175 patients with benign peptic ulcer bleeding treated in Samsung Medical Center from January 2000 to May 2003 were retrospectively analyzed. They were classified into three groups: no rebleeding rebleeding, and death and mean Rockall score was compared. Forrest classification was also compared with the Rockall score regarding the clinical usefulness of predicting poor outcomes in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer. RESUTLS: One hundred forty five patients did not show rebleeding, with mean Rockall score of 3.5 (SD=1.5). On the other hand, rebleeding occurred in 25 patients and the mean score was 6.4 (SD=1.44). There were 13 deaths with mean score of 7.0 (SD=1.08). The differences between the three groups were significant (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, Rockall score was a independent risk factor of rebleeding and mortality (odds ratio, OR=2.73 and OR=8.74). CONCLUSIONS: The Rockall scoring system is useful to predict poor outcome such as rebleeding and death in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer.
Comparative Study ; English Abstract ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Peptic Ulcer Hemorrhage/*classification/mortality/therapy ; Recurrence ; Risk Factors ; Survival Rate

OBJECTIVETo investigate the clinical epidemiology change trend of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) over the past 15 years.

METHODSConsecutive patients who was diagnosed as continuous UGIB in the endoscopy center of The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun-Yat University during the period from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 1998 and the period from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2013 were enrolled in this study. Their gender, age, etiology, ulcer classification, endoscopic treatment and hospitalization mortality were compared between two periods.

RESULTSIn periods from 1997 to 1998 and 2012 to 2013, the detection rate of UGIB was 9.99%(928/9 287) and 4.49%(1 092/24 318)(χ=360.089, P=0.000); the percentage of male patients was 73.28%(680/928) and 72.44% (791/1 092) (χ=0.179, P=0.672), and the onset age was (47.3±16.4) years and (51.4±18.2) years (t=9.214, P=0.002) respectively. From 1997 to 1998, the first etiology of UGIB was peptic ulcer bleeding, accounting for 65.2%(605/928)[duodenal ulcer 47.8%(444/928), gastric ulcer 8.3%(77/928), stomal ulcer 2.3%(21/928), compound ulcer 6.8%(63/928)],the second was cancer bleeding(7.0%,65/928), and the third was esophageal and gastric varices bleeding (6.4%,59/928). From 2012 to 2013, peptic ulcer still was the first cause of UGIB, but the ratio obviously decreased to 52.7%(575/1092)(χ=32.467, P=0.000)[duodenal ulcer 31.9%(348/1092), gastric ulcer 9.4%(103/1092), stomal ulcer 2.8%(30/1092), compound ulcer 8.6%(94/1092)]. The decreased ratio of duodenal ulcer bleeding was the main reason (χ=53.724, P=0.000). Esophageal and gastric varices bleeding became the second cause (15.1%,165/1 092, χ=38.976, P=0.000), and cancer was the third cause (9.2%,101/1 092, χ=3.352, P=0.067). The largest increasing amplitude of the onset age was peptic ulcer bleeding [(46.2±16.7) years vs. (51.9±18.9) years, t=-5.548, P=0.000), and the greatest contribution to the amplitude was duodenal ulcer bleeding [(43.4±15.9) years vs. (48.4±19.4) years, t=-3.935, P=0.000], while the onset age of esophageal and gastric varices bleeding [(49.8±14.1) years vs. (48.8±13.9) years, t=0.458, P=0.648] and cancer [(58.4±13.4) years vs. (58.9±16.7) years, t=-0.196, P=0.845] did not change significantly. Compared with the period from 1997 to 1998, the detection rate of high risk peptic ulcer rebleeding (Forrest stage I(a, I(b, II(a and II(b) increased (χ=39.958, P=0.000) in the period from 2012 to 2013. From 1997 to 1998, 54 patients underwent endoscopic treatment, and the achievement ratio of hemostasis was 79.6% (43/54). From 2012 to 2013, 261 patients underwent endoscopic treatment and the achievement ratio of hemostasis was 96.9%(253/261), which was significantly higher (χ=23.287, P=0.000). Compared to the period from 1997 to 1998, more patients with variceal bleeding or non-variceal bleeding received endoscopic treatment in time (39.0% vs. 70.3%, χ=51.930, P=0.000; 3.6% vs. 15.6%, χ=62.292, P=0.000, respectively), and higher ratio of patients staging Forrest stage I(a to II(b also received endoscopic treatment in the period from 2012 to 2013 [27.4%(26/95) vs. 68.5%(111/162), χ=40.739, P=0.000]. More qualified endoscopic hemostatic techniques were used, containing thermocoagulation (0 vs. 15.2%, χ=79.518, P=0.000), hemostatic clip (0 vs. 55.9%, χ=20.879, P=0.000), hemostatic clip combined with thermocoagulation (4.3% vs. 16.4%, χ=5.154, P=0.023), while less single injection was used (87.1% vs. 6.2%, χ=10.420, P=0.001), and single spraying for hemostasis was completely abandoned in the period from 2012 to 2013. The ratio of inpatients undergoing reoperation decreased obviously in the period from 2012 to 2013 [9.3%(86/928) vs. 6.0%(65/1092), χ=7.970, P=0.005], while no significant difference was found in mortality during hospitalization between two periods.

CONCLUSIONCompared with the period from 1997 to1998, the mean onset age of UGIB increased, and the ratio of peptic ulcer bleeding decreased due to the reduction of duodenal ulcer bleeding, the detection rate of high risk peptic ulcer rebleeding increased, the cure rate of endoscopic treatment for UGIB increased, more reasonable and immediate hemostatic methods were used, but overall mortality did not change obviously in the period from 2012 to 2013.

Adult ; Age of Onset ; Aged ; Electrocoagulation ; methods ; trends ; Endoscopy, Digestive System ; trends ; Esophageal and Gastric Varices ; pathology ; therapy ; Esophagus ; pathology ; Female ; Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage ; classification ; epidemiology ; etiology ; mortality ; Gastrointestinal Neoplasms ; pathology ; Hemostasis, Endoscopic ; methods ; trends ; Hemostatic Techniques ; trends ; Hemostatics ; therapeutic use ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Peptic Ulcer ; pathology ; therapy ; Peptic Ulcer Hemorrhage ; pathology ; therapy ; Reoperation ; trends ; Stomach Ulcer ; pathology ; therapy ; Surgical Instruments ; trends ; Ulcer ; epidemiology ; therapy