China ; epidemiology ; Humans ; Mortality ; trends

China ; Humans ; Liver Transplantation ; methods ; mortality ; trends ; Survival Rate ; trends

Objective: To analyze the trend of suicide mortality in residents of Hainan province, and explore the application of time sequence model in the prediction of the mortality of suicide. Methods: The mortality data of suicide in residents of Hainan province between January, 2014 and December, 2016 were collected and analyzed with time sequence model and the mortality rate of suicide during January-June, 2017 in Hainan was predicted with the model. Results: During January, 2014 to June 2017, a total of 576 suicide cases were reported in Hainan, the mortality rate was 1.5/100 000. The established ARIMA model had good fitting for the suicide mortality in previous times and the prediction result was quite similar to the actual mortality, the predicted mortality rate was within the 95% confidence interval of the actual rate. Conclusion: The time sequence model for the prediction of suicide mortality in Hainan was "ARIMA (0, 1, 0) (0, 0, 0) (12)" , and the prediction effect of the model was better, which can be used to predict the suicide mortality in Hainan.
China/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Incidence ; Models, Statistical ; Mortality/trends* ; Suicide/trends*

Cause of Death ; Child Mortality ; trends ; Female ; Hospital Mortality ; trends ; Humans ; Male

Objective: To analyze the trends on mortalities of all-cause and deaths caused by chronic and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among Chinese labor force population during 2007 to 2016. Methods: Data on cause-of-death that collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System was used to analyze the age and area-related specific crude mortality rates, age-standardized mortality rates and component ratios of NCDs, among the Chinese labor force population, during 2007 to 2016. Trend of crude mortality rates and mortality component ratios of the three major diseases (infectious diseases, maternal and infant diseases, nutritional deficiency diseases; NCDs; injuries) were analyzed. Age-standardized mortality of cancer, COPD, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were also analyzed by gender. Age-standardized mortality was calculated based on the Year 2010 Population Census of China. Joinpoint regression model was used to obtain annual percentage change and 95%CI was set for assessing the trend. Results: In 2016, the age-standardized all-cause mortality rate was 217.23 per 100 000 among the Chinese labor force population, but decreased by -2.8% (95%CI: -3.8%- -1.7%) annually from 2007 to 2016. The gap between different gender and regions gradually narrowed. The proportion of deaths caused by NCDs increased annually by 0.8% (95%CI: 0.7%-0.9%). The age-standardized mortality rate of NCDs appeared as 171.89/100 000, among the Chinese labor force population in 2016, showing a downward trend by -2.4% (95%CI:-3.3% - -1.4%). However, in females, there appeared the greatest decrease, with an average annual change of -3.3% (95%CI:-4.0% - -2.5%). Diseases as cancer, COPD, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases all showed downward trends in the whole country, with an average range of -2.0% (95%CI: -2.6%--1.3%), -8.0% (95%CI: -8.9% - -7.1%), -1.5% (95%CI: -2.9% - -0.1%), -2.3% (95%CI: -2.8% - -1.8%) in a ten-year period, respectively. Conclusion: All-cause and age-standardized mortality rates caused by NCDs among Chinese labor force population were decreasing during 2007 to 2016. However, the constituent ratios appeared increasing, year by year. Close attention needs to be paid on NCDs which affecting the health of the labor force population in China.
Cause of Death/trends* ; China ; Chronic Disease/epidemiology* ; Employment ; Female ; Humans ; Infant ; Mortality/trends* ; Noncommunicable Diseases/mortality*

OBJECTIVE: To investigate and analyze the occurrence of 64,101 perinatal birth defects from 2000 to 2004, to determine the tendency of the incidence rate of birth defects and perinatal mortality, and to explore feasible and effective intervention strategy. METHODS: We investigated 64,101 perinatal infants who were born in 13 hospitals in Changsha from January 2000 to December 2004. The incidence rate of all birth defects, mortality of perinatal infants, the incidence rate of various kinds of birth defects, and the component rate of birth defects were analyzed. RESULTS: Altogether 1,050 neonate birth defects were found, with the incidence rate of 1.638%. The incidence rate of birth defects was increasing year-by-year in 2000 compared with that in 2002, 2003 and 2004, with significant differences (all P values<0.05): the incidence rate of birth defects in 2001 compared with that in 2002, 2003 and 2004, also with significant differences (P<0.05). Eight hundred seventy nine perinatal infants died, and the mortality was 1.371%. The mortality perinatal of infants increased in 2001 compared with that in 2002 and in 2003, with significant differences (P<0.05). The top 5 birth defects with the highest incidence were congenital heart disease, polydactly, auricle malformation, cheiloschisis, and palatoschisis, congenital hydrocephal in turn. The incidences of congenital heart disease and hydrocephal increased significantly. One hundred seventy seven fetuses were performed induced labor because of fetal defects from 2003. CONCLUSION We must pay attention to the increasing tendency of birth defect incidence and perinatal mortality. Strengthening environmental protection and antenatal care can decrease the birth defect incidence. Performing antenatal examination and neonatal screening regularly can discover the birth defects in time. When severe birth defects occur, the induced labor should be performed.
China ; epidemiology ; Congenital Abnormalities ; mortality ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infant Mortality ; trends ; Infant, Newborn ; Perinatal Mortality ; trends ; Pregnancy

OBJECTIVEUsing the data on death for esophagus and stomach cancers in Linzhou cancer registration system, the mortality was described as well as the changing trend was analyzed.

METHODS18 240 death recorders for the both cancers during 1988 to 2003 were drawn from Linzhou cancer registration system. Of which, 10138 cases were esophageal cancer and 8102 cases were gastric cancer. Then data were stratified by sex, age, year and then linked to demographic classifications. The mortalities of two topographic site cancers were calculated and the age-adjusted rates were calculated by direct standardization to the world population. The Joinpoint model was used to get the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of the age-adjusted rates, so to estimate the death rate change trends of both cancers in population of Linzhou city.

RESULTSIn 2003, the age-adjusted mortalities of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer were 68.47 per 100,000 and 57.01 per 100,000 respectively of Linzhou city. From 1988 to 2003 the death rates for both of cancers had showed the decline trends. The EAPC of the mortality for esophageal cancer was -3.82 (-4.81 - -2.82, P < 0.001) and that for gastric cancer was -2.95 (-4.16 - -1.73, P < 0.001) respectively.

CONCLUSIONThe declining trend in was observed the mortality of esophageal and gastric cancer in Linzhou by this study.

China ; epidemiology ; Esophageal Neoplasms ; mortality ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Mortality ; trends ; Stomach Neoplasms ; mortality

The aims of this study were to demonstrate the trend of overall mortality rate and premature mortality rate for select types of cancer in Japan and to assess the utility as a target indicator. The age-adjusted mortality rate for the total population (overall mortality rate) and that for persons under 65 years of age (under 65 mortality rate) for stomach cancer, liver cancer and lung cancer from 1950 to 1997 in Japan were calculated. Moreover, the turning point year of the mortality trend was estimated using a regression model of the rate of annual increase in each mortality rate. As the results show, a decline in the under 65 mortality rate preceding a decline in the overall mortality rate was observed in stomach cancer and male liver cancer. Also, the under 65 mortality rate due to lung cancer seemed to begin to decline in recent years for males, while the overall mortality rate has been increasing. This study suggests that the premature mortality rate is a more sensitive indicator of the effectiveness of cancer prevention. Hence, because of not only the larger burden of premature deaths but also the sensitivity, premature mortality is considered to be suitable as a target indicator for cancer prevention strategies.
Mortality Vital Statistics ; Malignant Neoplasms ; trends ; Japan ; Prevention

OBJECTIVETo explain trend of death in Chinese by quantitative analysis of demographic and non-demographic factors and estimate the proportion of contribution of non-demographic and demographic factors.

METHODSUsing census data and death causes data of National Disease Surveillance Points at 1991 and 2000 to calculate the proportion of contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors and to change on various death causes from 1991 to 2000 by methods of decomposing the differences of death rates.

RESULTSThe death rate showed a rapid decrease during 1950 - 1975, mainly owing to the contribution of non-demographic factors, including economic development, popularization of education and health service, especially the "patriotic hygiene movement". During 1991 - 2000, the death causes of lung cancer, liver cancer, breast cancer, chronic heart disease, stroke, diabetes and traffic accident had been increasing. The increase of deaths caused by these diseases were contributed to the non-demographic factors including 63% of the increase on lung cancer and 88% of increase on death rate of traffic accidents.

CONCLUSIONThe study showed that the risk factors had contributed to the increase of death rates, including behavioral risk factors described in the preceding 5 papers as smoking and passive smoking, unhealthy diet, sedentary life style, violating traffic regulation etc. In order to reduce the death rates on cancer, heart diseases, diabetes, traffic accidents, emphasis should be also laid on the change of unhealthy behaviors.

Cause of Death ; China ; epidemiology ; Demography ; Humans ; Mortality ; trends ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the risk-adjusted inhospital mortality rates for non-emergent and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) patients exhibited a consistent trend from 2001 to 2003. METHODS: The data used in this study came from CABG claims that were submitted to a Korean Health Insurance Review Agency (HIRA) in 2001, 2002, and 2003. Study datasets included data from 17 tertiary hospitals, which had at least 25 claims each year over 3 years. The interhospital differences in patients' risk-factors were identified and controlled in the risk-adjustment model. Actual and predicted mortality rates for each hospital were calculated in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2001+2002, and were then examined to identify consistent rate patterns over time. Kappa analysis was applied to assess the agreements between rates. RESULTS: Hospitals with lower-than-expected inpatient mortality rates showed more consistent rates than those with higher-than-expected mortality rates. The mortality rates that were calculated based on data obtained over multiple years had less variation among hospitals than rates based on single year data. Based on the Kappa score, the highest agreement was found when the rates were compared between the 2-year combined data (2001+2002) and 2003. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent patterns over 3 years were most evident for hospitals which had lower-than expected mortality rates. Policy makers can use this information to identify the degree of outcomes in hospitals and help motivate or channel the behaviors of providers.
Risk Assessment ; Risk Adjustment ; Male ; Korea/epidemiology ; Humans ; Hospital Mortality/*trends ; Female ; Coronary Artery Bypass/*mortality/trends