Objective:To compare the performances of different time series models in predicting COVID-19 in different countries.Methods:We collected the daily confirmed case numbers of COVID-19 in the USA, India, and Brazil from April 1 to September 30, 2020, and then constructed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a recurrent neural network (RNN) model, respectively. We applied the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) to compare the performances of the two models in predicting the case numbers from September 21 to September 30, 2020.Results:For the ARIMA models applied in the USA, India, and Brazil, the MAPEs were 13.18%, 9.18%, and 17.30%, respectively, and the RMSEs were 6 542.32, 8 069.50, and 3 954.59, respectively. For the RNN models applied in the USA, India, and Brazil, the MAPEs were 15.27%, 7.23% and 26.02%, respectively, and the RMSEs were 6 877.71, 6 457.07, and 5 950.88, respectively.Conclusions:The performance of the prediction models varied with country. The ARIMA model had a better prediction performance for COVID-19 in the USA and Brazil, while the RNN model was more suitable in India.

Objective To explore the role and mechanism of tumor necrosis factor ligand -related molecule 1A (TL1A) in chronic experimental colitis associated intestinal fibrosis .Methods The model of chronic experimental colitis-associated intestinal fibrosis was induced by dextran sodium sulfate (DSS).The mice with high TL1A (L-Tg) expression in lymphoid cells and wild -type mice with the same genetic background were divided into wild type control group, wild type DSS group, transgenic control group and transgenic DSS group.The changes of body mass, length of colon, disease activity index (DAI) and colonic pathological score were compared among different groups .The degree of colonic inflammation was evaluated by Hematoxylin -Eosin (H-E) staining.The degree of intestinal fibrosis was assessed by Masson staining and Sirius red staining .The expression of vimentin, αsmooth muscle actin ( α-SMA), type Ⅰ collagen, Ⅲ collagen and transforming growth factor-β1 ( TGF-β1 ) /Smad3 in colon tissue was examined by immunohistochemistry .T test was performed for statistical analysis.Results The body mass of the transgenic DSS group decreased by (9.6 ± 1.8)％, which was more than wild-type DSS group (6.2 ±1.3)％, the difference was statistically significant (t =3.751, P <0.01).The DAI score and colonic pathological score of transgenic DSS group were both higher than those of wild-type DSS group (7.33 ±0.58 vs.6.00 ±1.00, and 14.00 ±1.05 vs.11.75 ±0.50, respectively), and the differences were statistically significant (t =2.818 and 4.739, both P <0.05).The results of Masson staining and Sirius red staining showed aggravation of intestinal fibrosis .The results of immunohistochemical staining showed that the cumulative positive absorbance values of vimentin , α-SMA, TGF-β1 and Smad3 of wild-type DSS group were lower than those of transgenic DSS group (0.650 ±0.050 vs. 0.800 ±0.020, 0.390 ±0.040 vs.0.600 ±0.040, 0.550 ±0.040 vs.0.730 ±0.040, 0.590 ±0.020 vs. 0.830 ±0.040), and the differences were statistically significant (t =6.823, 9.093, 7.794 and 10.390, all P <0.01).Conclusion TL1A may promote the proliferation and activation of fibroblasts through TGF -β1 /Smad3 pathway, leading to the genesis and development of experimental colitis associated intestinal fibrosis .

Objective:To analyze the vaginal microecological status of vaginitis population and non-vaginitis population of gynecological female outpatients.Methods:A total of 30 265 women who visited the gynecological outpatient clinic of Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital from December 2018 to December 2020 completed vaginal microecological examination. After removing the follow-up patients, 23 181 women were divided into group with symptoms and signs of vaginitis (6 697 cases) and group without symptoms and signs of vaginitis (16 484 cases), according to whether the women with symptoms and signs of vaginitis or not. And the vaginal microecological status of the two groups was compared and analyzed.Results:(1) The total detection rate of vaginitis in the initial women was 34.87% (8 083/23 181), of which 46.10% (3 087/6 697) in group with symptoms and signs of vaginitis and 30.31% (4 996/16 484) in group without symptoms and signs of vaginitis, nearly 1/3 of the gynecological outpatients without signs and symptoms of vaginitis had vaginitis. (2) Among the types of simple vaginitis, vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC) was the most frequent in group with symptoms and signs of vaginitis (16.01%, 1 072/6 697), followed by aerobic vaginitis (AV; 12.83%, 859/6 697), with significant differences compared with group without symptoms and signs of vaginitis (all P<0.001). There were no statistical differences between the two groups of bacterial vaginosis (BV) and trichomonal vaginitis (TV), indicating that BV and TV were more likely to be neglected (all P>0.05). (3) The proportion of various combinations of vaginitis among 2 632 cases of mixed vaginitis were, in descending order: BV+AV, VVC+AV, BV+AV+VVC, AV+TV, AV+TV+BV, BV+VVC. (4) Microecological analysis of 15 098 cases diagnosed with non-vaginitis had normal flora (including those with normal flora and those with normal flora but decreased function) in 14 013 cases (92.81%, 14 013/15 098), abnormal flora in 429 cases (2.84%, 429/15 098) and the BV intermediate in 656 cases (4.34%, 656/15 098); this indicated that the vast majority of the microecological tests were normal in the vaginal microbiota of those without vaginitis. Conclusions:Microecological examination could diagnose multiple pathogenic infections at once, and is especially important as a guide for the definitive diagnosis of mixed vaginitis and vaginitis with atypical clinical symptoms. Vaginal infections such as BV and TV that are easily overlooked should be concerned.

Objective: To assess the bi-ventricular remodeling in patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy (HOCM) after modified Morrow surgery by three-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography (3D-STE). Methods: Twenty-eight patients with HOCM who underwent modified Morrow surgery from August 2013 to September 2016 in Xijing Hospital were consecutively included in this study. Routine and full-volume echocardiographic images were collected before and after surgery, 3D-STE echocardiographic data were analyzed by TomTec software to calculate left and right ventricular end-diastolic volume (EDV), end-systolic volume (ESV), stroke volume (SV) and ejection fraction (EF), as well as the longitudinal strain(LS), circumferential strain(CS), radial strain(RS) of the 16 segments of left ventricle. The left atrial maximum volume(LAVmax), left atrial minimum volume (LAVmin), left atrial stroke volume(LASV), left atrial ejection fraction(LAEF) were obtained, as well as right ventricular longitudinal strain of septum [RVLS(S)], right ventricular longitudinal strain of free wall[RVLS(FW)], tricuspid annular planesystolic excursion(TAPSE), right ventricular fractional area change(RVFAC). Results: Compared with baseline, the IVS thickness were significantly reduced, LVOT pressure gradient were significantly decreased, LVOT diameter were increased significantly (all P<0.05). The LS in the basal part of anterior and lateral wall were increased significantly (all P<0.05). The CS in basal and middle part of lateral wall were increased significantly (all P<0.05). The RS in basal part of anterior, lateral and posterior wall, as well as in the middle part of anterior and lateral wall were increased significantly( all P<0.05). The LAVmax, LAVmin and LASV were decreased, and the LAEF was increased(all P<0.05). The RVLS(FW) and the TAPSE were increased significantly( all P<0.05). Conclusions After modified Morrow surgery in HOCM patients, the morphological remodeling of left ventricle, left atrium and right ventricle are improved, accompanied by the improvement of the function. 3D-STE is valuable in evaluating the efficacy of modified Morrow surgery in HOCM patients.

ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of transplantation of bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells （BMSCs） co-cultured with bone marrow-derived M2 macrophages （M2-BMDMs）， named as BMSC^M2， on a rat model of liver cirrhosis induced by carbon tetrachloride （CCl₄）/2-acetaminofluorene （2-AAF）. MethodsRat BMDMs were isolated and polarized into M2 phenotype， and rat BMSCs were isolated and co-cultured with M2-BMDMs at the third generation to obtain BMSC^M2. The rats were given subcutaneous injection of CCl₄ for 6 weeks to establish a model of liver cirrhosis， and then they were randomly divided into model group （M group）， BMSC group， and BMSC^M2 group， with 6 rats in each group. A normal group （N group） with 6 rats was also established. Since week 7， the model rats were given 2-AAF by gavage in addition to the subcutaneous injection of CCl₄. Samples were collected at the end of week 10 to observe liver function， liver histopathology， and hydroxyproline （Hyp） content in liver tissue， as well as changes in the markers for hepatic stellate cells， hepatic progenitor cells， cholangiocytes， and hepatocytes. A one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison of continuous data between multiple groups， and the least significant difference t-test was used for further comparison between two groups. ResultsCompared with the N group， the M group had significant increases in the activities of serum alanine aminotransferase （ALT） and aspartate aminotransferase （AST） （P<0.01）； compared with the M group， the BMSC and BMSC^M2 groups had significant reductions in ALT and AST （P<0.01）， and the BMSC^M2 group had significantly better activities than the BMSC group （P<0.05）. Compared with the N group， the M group had significant increases in Hyp content and the mRNA and protein expression levels of alpha-smooth muscle actin （α-SMA） in the liver （P<0.01）； compared with the M group， the BMSC and BMSC^M2 groups had significant reductions in Hyp content and the expression of α-SMA （P<0.05）， and the BMSC^M2 group had a significantly lower level of α-SMA than the BMSC group （P<0.01）. Compared with the N group， the M group had significant increases in the mRNA expression levels of the hepatic progenitor cell markers EpCam and Sox9 and the cholangiocyte markers CK7 and CK19 （P<0.01） and significant reductions in the expression levels of the hepatocyte markers HNF-4α and Alb （P<0.01）； compared with the M group， the BMSC and BMSC^M2 groups had significant reductions in the mRNA expression levels of EpCam， Sox9， CK7， and CK19 （P<0.05） and significant increases in the mRNA expression levels of HNF-4α and Alb （P<0.05）， and compared with the BMSC group， the BMSC^M2 group had significant reductions in the mRNA expression levels of EpCam and CK19 （P<0.05） and significant increase in the expression level of HNF-4α （P<0.05）. ConclusionM2-BMDMs can enhance the therapeutic effect of BMSCs on CCl₄/2-AAF-induced liver cirrhosis in rats， which provides new ideas for further improving the therapeutic effect of BMSCs on liver cirrhosis.