Objective:To develop the model for forecasting and surveilling the spread of notifiable infectious diseases in Chongqing.Methods:Statistics of Box-Ljung was used to evaluate the degree of fitness of ARIMA model,and the average relative errors of predict were used as indexes to evaluate the predict effect.Results:The changes of incidence rate of the notifiable infectious diseases in Chongqing presented a yearly periodicity,and showed that the incidence rate from March to August exceeded the monthly average of it.The residuals sum of square of the ARIMA model was 12.23 for incidence rate of the notifiable infectious disease from 2003 to 2007,and the mean relative error of the model was 8.3%.Conclusion:Time series methods applied to historical reporting data of infectious disease are an important tool for infectious disease surveillance.The ARIMA model is suitable to forecast the incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases in Chongqing.Our approach potentially has a high practical value in forecasting and surveilling the notifiable infectious diseases.

Objective To investigate the influencing factors of children pneumonia hospitalization expense and provide refer‐ence for its expense control .Methods Path analysis was performed on the hospitalization expense and its influencing factors based on 927 pneumonia children in a hospital in Chongqing in 2011 .Results Multivariate regression analyasis showed that the influen‐cing factors of children pneumonia hospitalization expense were proportion of drug expense ,length of hospital stay ,type of pay‐ment ,admission condition ,therapeutic outcome and age .The coefficient of determination (R2 =0 .867 ,F=597 .552 ,P<0 .01) .Be‐sides ,proportion of drugs ,admission condition and therapeutic outcome had indirect effects by influencing hospital stay .The coeffi‐cient of determination (R2 =0 .506 F=330 .336 ,P<0 .01) .According to the total coefficient of path analysis ,the factors of influen‐cing hospitalization expense were listed in descending order as follows :proportion of drug expense ,length of hospital stay ,therapeu‐tic outcome ,type of payment ,admission condition and age .Conclusion Reducing drug proportion ,length of hospital stay ,and strengthening supervision on medicare patients′ expense are effective measurements to control children pneumonia hospitalization ex penses .

Objective To combine grey relation analysis and partial least squares regression model to establish the forecasting model of per-patient hospitalization expenses .Methods Gray relational analysis was used to filter out the main factors affecting per-patient hospitalization expenses ,and then collinearity was examined between these factors .Partial least squares regression was used to establish prediction model of per-patient hospitalization expenses ,and the prediction accuracy was proved .Results After filtered by gray relational analysis ,the order of the importance of factors affecting per-patient hospitalization expenses was the west-ern medicine fee ,traditional Chinese medicine fees ,diagnosis and treat fees ,other fees ,inspection fees ,bed fees and operation fees . The established partial least squares regression model had a higher accuracy on fitting and prediction ,with low average relative er-ror ,respectively ,-0 .000 2% and 0 .349 3% .Conclusion The gray relational analysis and partial least squares regression are suit-able for the influencing factors and prediction analysis of hospitalization costs .It provides a reference for data with the small sample size and high collinearity between the variables .

Objective To understand the support effect of the resources and services provided by the library on the scientific research of medical postgraduates. Methods Taking 150 graduate stu-dents in Chongqing Medical University as the research object, through questionnaire survey and inter-view method, the characteristics of medical graduate students' selection of document resources, as well as their application of the resources and services provided by the library were investigated. Results 65% (98/150) of students chose Chinese literature as the preferred source of information, 6% (9/150) of graduate students did not borrow books at the library, 54% (81/150) of graduate students chose library website as the data retrieval entrance at the time of obtaining the preferred document, 9% (14/150) of students did not participate in the library reader training. Conclusion Library resources are still the first choice for the graduate students to obtain the literature, and the library should be improved in the aspects of resource allocation, service mode, in order to meet the needs of graduate students' scientific research.

Background: Depressive symptoms (DS) can erode physical and mental health; social support (SS) is considered a buffer for DS and a promoter for improving coping and recovery abilities. However, there is almost no research on the mediating role of negative coping (NC) in SS and DS, especially among firefighters. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among firefighters in Chongqing, China, and the valid data of 407 firefighters were collected through questionnaires distributed on the WeChat platform in 2020. Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) 26.0 is used for descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Structural equation modeling was adopted to analyze the association among SS, NC, and DS. The mediation effect is also evaluated. Results: Firefighters' detection rate of DS is 23.3%, and when they receive more SS were less likely to develop DS. NC was positively correlated with DS (β = 0.54, p < 0.001) after controlling for SS. Besides, the results of structural equation modeling showed that NC partially mediates the relationship between SS and DS (standard error = 0.039, indirect effects = 0.109, 95% confidence interval: 0.047–0.200 p < 0.001). Conclusion NC has a partial indirect effect between SS and DS among firefighters. SS could not only affect DS directly but also indirect work on it by affecting NC. This discovery will be a novel and meaningful part of the research on the firefighter population.

Improving medical students' calculation ability in statistics has become the focus and difficulty of medical statistics course teaching, and its application relies heavily on statistical calculation software. In order to explore a new teaching approach which combined the advantages of traditional method and web-based calculation, we intended to build a web computing platform applying the Browser/Server (B/S) mode based on the campus network, and to revise the current syllabus of medical statistics, as well as to create a virtual web-lab containing a typical case library. Practice has proved that the new mode effec-tively improved the practice capability of students and changed the traditional teacher-centered teaching approach.

Objective:To investigate the online learning situation of students in Chongqing Medical University during the COVID-19 epidemic, analyze the advantages and disadvantages of online learning, and provide reference for the improvement of online teaching.Methods:Random sampling was adopted to conduct online questionnaire survey among undergraduates of Chongqing Medical University in the form of anonymous questionnaire. SPSS 22.0 was used for chi-square test.Results:There were significant differences in learning outcomes between students living in different places during the epidemic period ( P<0.05). The results showed that 34% of students thought the advantages of online learning were "freedom of learning time", "freedom of learning place", "abundant resources and available to watch videos repeatedly". According to the analysis of disadvantages of online learning, 39% of the students believed that online learning had "poor personal self-control ability to ensure learning efficiency", "no sense of reality in the experimental courses", "lack of learning atmosphere, decrease of the learning motivation", "tedious learning process, requiring constant software upgrading and replacement." Conclusion:Firstly, for special periods, we should unify online learning platforms in the whole university. Then, we should strengthen the publicity of online courses. Finally, teachers should drive the classroom atmosphere during the online teaching and improve students' learning efficiency.

Objective The objective was to investigate new media influence on college student's reading behaviors.Methods A cross-sectional survey on internet use,reading behavior and influence on sleep and life of college students was conducted.The sample was selected using a multi-stage sampling among college students in Chongqing.Results 92.5％ students used smart phone to access information through Internet.Entertainment is the main motivation of digital reading.58.39％ students preferred traditional paper reading for academic study.97.6％ students used smart phone for reading before sleep and 27.4％ used smart phone before sleep caused sleep problem.53.6％ students believed that in terms of life and study,the new media reading is more helpful than harmful.Conclusion College students are heavy users of new media,and that some forms of media use may adversely impact sleep and academic performance.