OBJECTIVES: The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. METHODS: The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. RESULTS: The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. CONCLUSIONS: The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.
Data Collection ; Forecasting* ; Health Facilities ; Humans ; Infant ; Infant Mortality ; Iran* ; Mortality* ; Patient Selection ; Periodicity ; Public Health ; Seasons

OBJECTIVES: In most countries around the world, sex work is an illegal activity. Female sex workers (FSWs) in Iran hide their identities, and they are known to be a hard-to-reach population. Despite free access to HIV testing, fewer than half of FSWs receive HIV testing. The purpose of this study was to characterize the reasons for which FSWs do not seek testing at drop-in centers (DICs) and voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) centers in Iran. METHODS: A qualitative study was conducted in 2016. The participants were 24 FSWs who received services at VCT centers and DICs for vulnerable females in the north of Iran and 9 males who were the clients of FSWs. In this study, we made use of purposive sampling and carried out a thematic analysis. RESULTS: We found 4 major and 6 minor themes. The major themes were: fear of being infected (with HIV), stigma, indifference, and knowledge. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the significant efforts made by the government of Iran to establish and expand DICs for vulnerable females, the number of FSWs receiving services at these centers has not been very considerable. Consequently, by introducing and implementing training programs for peer groups, it may be possible to take steps toward establishing strategic programs for the control and prevention of HIV/AIDS.
Counseling ; Dacarbazine ; Education ; Female* ; Health Services* ; HIV ; Humans ; Iran ; Male ; Peer Group ; Sex Workers*