Objective: To systematically review available risk prediction models evidence on construction and verification of colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Methods: "Colorectal neoplasms", "risk assessment", "colorectal cancer", "colorectal tumor", "colon cancer", "colon tumor", "rectal cancer", "rectal tumor", "anal cancer", "anal tumor", "risk prediction", "malignancy", "carcinogenesis", "model" were used as search keywords. Journal papers and grey literature were searched from Chinese electronic databases (CNKI and Wanfang) and English electronic databases (PubMed and Embase) from their inception to 30 Apr 2018. The language of literature was restricted to Chinese and English. The inclusion criteria were human-oriented researches with complete information for model construction,verification and evaluation. The exclusion criteria were informal publications such as conference abstracts, Chinese disertation papers, and non-primary research materials such as reviews,letters,and news reports. Descriptive characteristics,targeted population, study design, model construction method and prediction results were extracted. A total of 36 papers involving 27 models were included. The population characteristics of all included studies,the type of research, the method of model construction and the prediction results of the model were analyzed. Results: As for model construction,there were 13 European and American population based model studies,14 Asian population based model studies,including 7 Chinese mainland based model studies. According to the factors selected into the model, these models can be divided into traditional epidemiological models (17 models), clinical index combined models (4 models),and genetic susceptibility index combined models (6 models). As for model verification,only 9 models were cross-verified in the internal population after model construction, and the extrapolation of model prediction effect was not effectively evaluated; 17 models were verified in an external population; there was only one model verified in two external populations in terms of risk prediction effect; the area under the curve of 27 models was 0.56-0.85. Conclusion The risk prediction model of colorectal cancer is in the development stage. The external evaluation of model prediction effect is less and the prediction ability is not good, and the existing models have limited exploration of clinical indicators.

Objective To analyze clinical outcome of high grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) within 24 months after loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP),and to explore risk factors of recurrent cervical HSIL,the risk of progress into cervical cancer and methods of follow-up.Methods This retrospective study was carried out on 1 005 patients who underwent LEEP,diagnosing with HSIL after LEEP from January 2011 to December 2013 at Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University to confer the difference between non-recurrent group and recurrent group 24 months after the LEEP conization.Patients were followed with ThinPrep cytologic test (TCT),high risk HPV (HR-HPV) test,colposcopy guided biopsy.Results A total of 1 005 cases were enrolled in this study with HSIL in the LEEP specimen,no residual HSIL in the 6-month follow up,and have follow up records in 24 months after LEEP.HSIL recurred in 5 cases,microinvasive carcinoma in 1 case,low grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) in 17 cases at 12 months follow-up.HSIL recurred in 8 cases,LSIL in 11 cases,adenocarcinoma in situ in 1 case,and invasive cervical carcinoma in 1 case in Ⅰ b1 stage at 24 months after LEEP.The recurrence rate was 1.3％ (13/1 005),and the progression rate was 0.3％ (3/1 005).There was no significant difference in age,length,circumference and width of LEEP between recurrent and non-recurrent patients (P ＞ 0.05).The recurrence rate was highest in the endocervical positive margin group with 3/16,which was higher than ectocervical positive margin and negative margin (P＜0.01,P=0.040,respectively).The recurrence rate of endocervical positive margin group and fibrous interstitial positive margin group showed no significant difference (P=0.320).There was no significant difference between ectocervical positive margin and negative margin [2.8％ (2/72) vs 0.7％ (6/882),P=0.117].Postoperative cytological examination combined with HR-HPV detection has a high sensitive and high negative predictor value of HSIL recurrence with both 100.0％.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that positive endocervical positive margin,abnormal follow-up cytological examination and positive HR-HPV after LEEP were independent factors affecting recurrence of HSIL patients after LEEP (P＜0.05).Conclusions Age,length,circumference and width of LEEP have no effect on recurrence within 24 months after HSIL.The high risk factors for HSIL recurrence within 24 months after LEEP in HSIL patients include:positive HPV,abnormal cytology,and positive endocervical positive margin.Colposcopy biopsy and endocervical curettage have important role in diagnosing HSIL recurrence and progression.

Objective To analyze clinical outcome of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) half a year after loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP) and explore the high risk factor of residual cervical HSIL.Methods The retrospective study was carried out on 1 502 patients who underwent LEEP,with HSIL in the LEEP histopathology from January 2011 to December 2013 at Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University to confer the difference between residual group and non-residual group after 6 months of the leep conization.Patients were followed with ThinPrep cytologic test (TCT),high risk HPV (HR-HPV) test,colposcopy guided biopsy (CBD) and endocervical curettage (ECC).The high risks of residual cervical HSIL was analyzed.Results Among 1 502 cases,48 (3.20％,48/1 502) cases suffered HSIL residual disease.Forty cases were diagnosed by CBD,4 cases were diagnosed by ECC.The other 4 cases were both positive in CBD and ECC.Residul rate were different among different age groups.The residual rate was higher in the age ≥50 years old compared to the age below 50 [9.70％ (16/165),2.39％ (32/1 337);x2=25.33,P＜0.01].For post-LEEP specimens,both circumference (2.5,2.8 cm;Z=-3.17,P＜0.01) and width [0.6,0.6 cm;Z=-2.88,P＜0.01) were less in HSIL lesion residual group than those in non-residual group,though length showed no obvious difference [1.5,1.5 cm;Z=-1.55,P＞0.05).The residual rate of leep positive margin was obviously higher than that in the negative margin group [6.77％ (18/266) vs 2.43％(30/1 236);x2=13.30,P＜0.01].Different positive margin had diverse residual rate,as positive endocervical margin was 16.07％ (9/56),positive margin undetermined was 7.29％ (7/96) and positive ectocervical margin was 3.33％ (4/120).Both positive endocervical margin and positive margin undetermined had a higher residual rate than residual rate (x2=26.99,P＜0.01;x2=4.24,P＜0.05).Abnormal cytology showed higher residual rate than the non-residual with significant difference [6.00％ (6/100) vs 1.29％ (14/1 083),x2=9.50,P＜0.01].In terms of the post-LEEP HR-HPV test follow-up,HR-HPV positive's residual rate was higher than that in the negative group [2.91％ (6/206) vs 0.96％ (7/727)],while there was no statistical significance (x2=3.10,P＞0.05).Multivariate logistic analysis showed that abnormal cytology in 6 month's follow-up post-LEEP conization was an independent risk factor on residual lesion (OR=3.75,P＜0.05).Conclusions Patient with age ≥50 years old and positive endocervical margin are high risk factors for the residual HSIL lesion after LEEP conization,especially for abnormal cytology during follow up is independent risk factor for residual lesion.Colposcopy directed biopsy and (or) ECC still play an indispendsable role in finding the HSIL residual lesion.

Objective: To investigate the association between anthropometry and colorectal cancer risk in Chinese males. Methods: Anthropometry and incident colorectal cancer cases were collected on a biennial basis starting in May 2006 among males in Kailuan Cohort (2006-2014). In addition, electronic database of hospitals affiliated to Kailuan Community, Insurance System of Kailuan Community and Tangshan were also searched for supplementary information. Cox proportional hazards regression models and linear models were used to evaluate the association between baseline anthropometry and the risk of colorectal cancer in males. Results: A total of 106 786 males were included and 318 new colorectal cancer cases were identified in the Kailuan male cohort study, with 747 337.60 person-years follow-up by 31 December 2014. The median follow-up time was 7.90 years. Highest quartile waist circumference (≥94.0 cm) or WHtR (≥0.55) had 1.45 (95%CI: 1.05-2.02) and 1.66 (95%CI: 1.15-2.41) higher risk of colorectal cancer when compared with lowest waist circumference (<82.0 cm) or WHtR (<0.48) after adjusting for age, education, smoking, alcohol drinking, sitting time and dust exposure. Subgroup analyses by site indicated that males with BMI ≥26.27 kg/m², waist circumference ≥94.0 cm or WHtR ≥0.55 had HRs (95%CI) of 2.18(1.27-3.73), 2.20 (1.27-3.78) and 2.42 (1.29-4.56) for colon cancer risk, respectively. Linear models showed the HR of colon cancer and 95%CI would be 1.59 (1.24-2.02) with every 0.1 growth in WHtR. Conclusion Obesity may be responsible for an increased risk of colorectal cancer in male. Reasonable weight control may be one of the effective measures to prevent colorectal cancer.

Objective: To investigate whether elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and neutrophil (NE) in the blood is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer incidence. Methods: From 2006 to 2007, all employees and retirees from Kailuan (Group) Limited liability Corporation were included in this Kailuan Cohort study. The last follow-up date was December 2015. Data on new cases of lung cancer were collected, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to the relationship between baseline CRP and NE at baseline and risk of lung cancer. Results: A total of 92 735 participants were enrolled in this study. During the follow-up, 850 new cases of lung cancer were identified. All subjects were divided into four groups according to the combination level of CRP and NE at baseline: CRP≤3 mg/L and NE≤4×10⁹/L(Group A), CRP≤3 mg/L and NE>4×10⁹/L(Group B), CRP>3 mg/L and NE≤4×10⁹/L(Group C), CRP>3 mg/L and NE>4×10⁹/L(Group D). The cumulative incidence of lung cancer were 950/100 000, 1 030/100 000, 1 081/100 000 and 1 596/100 000 in these four groups, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate Cox proportional risk model showed that participants from Group D had an significantly increased 72% risks of lung cancer when compared to Group A (95% CI: 1.40~2.12, P<0.001). Stratified analyses gender showed that males in Group D had higher risk of lung cancer when compared with participants in Group A (HR=1.73, 95% CI: 1.40~2.15, P<0.001). Conclusion Elevated levels of CRP and NE might increase the risk of lung cancer.