1.Clinical Analysis of Cutaneous Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease Post-Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Childhood.
Yu-Xian WANG ; Hao XIONG ; Zhi CHEN ; Li YANG ; Fang TAO ; Yu DU ; Zhuo WANG ; Ming SUN ; Shan-Shan QI ; Lin-Lin LUO
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2025;33(5):1461-1467
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate the clinical features and risk factors associated with cutaneous chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in children.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of children who underwent allo-HSCT in the Wuhan Children's Hospital from August 1, 2016, to December 31, 2023, and were regularly followed up for 1 year or more. The differences in clinical features between children with and without cutaneous cGVHD were compared, and the risk factors affecting the occurrence of cutaneous cGVHD were analyzed.
RESULTS:
During the study period, 296 children received allo-HSCT. Until December 31, 2024, follow-up showed that 20 children (6.8%) developed cutaneous cGVHD, which manifested as cutaneous lichenification, hyperpigmentation, keratosis pilaris, sclerotic changes, and hair or nail involvement. According to their skin lesion area and degree of grading, 5 cases were mild, 10 cases were moderate, and 5 cases were severe. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that female donors and previous acute GVHD were risk factors for the development of cutaneous cGVHD after allo-HSCT. All 20 children were treated with glucocorticoid ± calcineurin inhibitors (tacrolimus/cyclosporine) as first-line therapeutic agents. Only 1 child improved after first-line treatment. The remaining 19 children treated with a second-line regimen of combination interventions based on individualized status, including 10 children who could not tolerate hormonotherapy or first-line treatment, and showed no significant improvement after 3 months, as well as 9 children with multi-organ cGVHD. After comprehensive second-line treatment, 17 children showed improvement in cutaneous symptoms. There were 3 deaths, including 1 due to primary disease recurrence and 2 due to pulmonary infections.
CONCLUSION
The skin is the first manifestation and most common organ involved in cGVHD in children. Cutaneous cGVHD severely affects the daily activities of transplanted children and requires prolonged immunosuppressive therapy, but has a favorable prognosis. First-line treatments for adults are not applicable to children who usually require a combination treatment with multiple drugs.
Humans
;
Graft vs Host Disease/etiology*
;
Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Risk Factors
;
Female
;
Child
;
Skin Diseases/etiology*
;
Chronic Disease
;
Transplantation, Homologous
;
Male
;
Child, Preschool
;
Adolescent
2.Clinical Analysis of Mitoxantrone Liposome in the Treatment of Children with High-Risk Acute Myeloid Leukemia
Yu-Qing JIAO ; Hao XIONG ; Zhi CHEN ; Li YANG ; Fang TAO ; Ming SUN ; Shan-Shan QI ; Wen-Jie LU ; Zhuo WANG ; Yu DU ; Lin-Lin LUO
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2024;32(2):365-369
Objective:To investigate the safety and efficacy of mitoxantrone liposome in the treatment of children with high-risk acute myeloid leukemia(AML).Methods:The children with high-risk AML who received the mitoxantrone liposome regimen at Wuhan Children's Hospital from January 2022 to February 2023 were collected as the observation group,and the children with high-risk AML who received idarubicin regimen were enrolled as controls,and their clinical data were analyzed.Time to bone marrow recovery,the complete remission rate of bone marrow cytology,the clearance rate of minimal residual disease,and treatment-related adverse reactions were compared between the two groups.Results:The patients treated with mitoxantrone liposome showed shorter time to recovery of leukocytes(17 vs 21 day),granulocytes(18 vs 24 day),platelets(17 vs 24 day),and hemoglobin(20 vs 26 day)compared with those treated with idarubicin,there were statistical differences(P<0.05).The effective rate and MRD turning negative rate in the observation group were 90.9%and 72.7%,respectively,while those in the control group were 94.1%and 76.4%,with no statistical difference(P>0.05).The overall response rate of the two groups of patients was similar.Conclusion:The efficacy of mitoxantrone liposome is not inferior to that of idarubicin in children with high-risk AML,but mitoxantrone liposome allows a significantly shorter duration of bone marrow suppression and the safety is better.
3.Clinical characteristics of ankylosing spondylitis complicated with osteoporosis in different ethnic groups in Xinjiang
Jiao SUN ; Dong XU ; Shan CONG ; Wenjing DU ; Li LUO
Chinese Journal of Rheumatology 2024;28(7):483-487
Objective:To explore the status of osteoporosis in patients with ankylosing spondylitis in the Han and four other ethnic minorities in Xinjiang.Methods:From January 2019 to June 2020, 89 patients with ankylosing spondylitis who were hospitalized in the Rheumatology and Immunology Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University with complete data were collected. Age, sex, body mass index, course of the disease, blood calcium, phosphorus, alkaline phosphatase, 25 hydroxy-vitamin D 3 level, Creactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, human leukocyte antigen B27, family history, peripheral joint involvement were analyzed between Han and ethnic minority patients. Extra-articular manifestations, presence or absence of fracture, and bone mineral density were analyzed with SPSS 26.0. Quantitative data were described using s and independent sample t-test. Counting data was described using n (%) and Pearson χ2 test. The rank sum test was used for econometric data and grade data that were not meet with normal distribution. Results:Among the 89 patients, 46 were Han and 43 were ethnic minorities, with an average age of (37.2±8.4) years. Seventeen patients had osteoporosis, of which 7 were Han and 10 were ethnic minorities. The mean age was (34.2±10.4) years. and the course of disease was (11.6±4.9)months. Among the patients with osteoporosis, the age of ethnic minority patients was younger [ethnic minority (25.4±10.7)years vs. Han (37.8±10.5)years, t=2.48 , P=0.021], and the duration of disease was shorter (month) [ethnic minority (5.4±2.6)months vs. Han (8.5±2.0)months, t=2.63 , P=0.015]. Conclusion:Although ankylosing spondylitis is mainly in young people, osteoporosis is not uncommon. Ethnic minority patients with ankylosing spondylitis complicated with osteoporosis are younger in age and shorter in course of disease than Han patients.
4.Management and prognosis of spontaneous splenorenal shunt in liver cirrhosis
Wenhao XUE ; Lei XIA ; Shirui LIU ; Yunpeng LUO ; Baoning ZHOU ; Jintao SHAN ; Shichang DU ; Yiming CHAI ; Zhen LI
Chinese Journal of General Surgery 2024;39(5):344-349
Objective:To analyze the clinical characteristics of patients with spontaneous splenorenal shunt (SSRS) in liver cirrhosis, and to compare the effects and prognosis of different treatments.Methods:The data of cirrhotic patients with SSRS at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between 2016-2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Patients were divided into Group A receiving conservative treatment, Group B by simple embolization, Group C undergoing TIPS combined with embolization, and Group D given liver transplantation. Life status, liver function changes, incidences of adverse events, and survival between groups were compared.Results:SSRS diameter was positively correlated with blood ammonia ( R=0.478) and negatively correlated with portal vein diameter ( R=-0.301). SSRS diameter is a protective factor for gastrointestinal hemorrhage and ascites and a risk factor for hepatic encephalopathy; Blood ammonia decreased and prothrombin time prolonged after treatment in group A ( P<0.05), blood ammonia decreased and albumin increased in group B ( P<0.05). Hemoglobin and bilirubin increased in group C ( P<0.05), blood ammonia and bilirubin decreased and platelets and albumin increased in group D ( P<0.05); Survival analysis showed that the prognosis of groups A and C was related to liver function, and the survival rate of group D was the highest of all ( P<0.05). Conclusions:SSRS embolization is safe and effective, and liver transplantation improves patient survival. Individualized treatment should be selected based on patient symptoms, liver function, and shunt diameter.
5.Correlation Analysis between Cerebrospinal Fluid Status and Prognosis in Childhood with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia by Flow Cytometry.
Li-Li DING ; Hao XIONG ; Li YANG ; Yan CHEN ; Yu DU ; Wen-Jie LU ; Shan-Shan QI ; Zhi CHEN ; Ming SUN ; Lin-Lin LUO
Journal of Experimental Hematology 2023;31(3):654-658
OBJECTIVE:
To study the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) status and prognosis value in patients with newly diagnosed acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) by flow cytometry (FCM).
METHODS:
The clinical features of the 75 newly diagnosed ALL patients from September 2020 to December 2021 in our centre were retrospective analyzed, as well as the bone marrow (BM) and CSF minimal residual disease (MRD) data, and the CSF conventional cytology data. Central nervous system infiltration(CNSI) positive was as CSF MRD positive by FCM or leukemia cells detected by conventional cytology. The status of CSF were compared and analyzed by FCM and conventional cytology, the clinical features and the prognosis value of different CNSI status in these patients were analyzed.
RESULTS:
Among 75 newly diagnosed ALL, 16 cases (21%) with CNSI positive (CNSI+) were detected by FCM, while only 2 positive cases (3%) were detected by conventional cytology. The CNSI+ rate detected by FCM was significantly higher than conventional cytology(P<0.05). Compared with CNSI- ALL patients, the median age of CNSI+ ALL patients was significantly younger, and the median platelet count was significantly lower, the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). Up to follow-up time (August 31, 2022), four ALL patients were died, including 3 patients were CNSI- and 1 patient was CNSI+. Furthermore, three cases were primary disease relapse, including 1 case was CNSI+. There was no significant difference in overall survival (OS) rate and relapse-free survival (RFS) rate of the patients with different CNSI status.
CONCLUSION
Compared with conventional cytology, FCM is a more sensitive assay to evaluate the central nervous system status in ALL patients. After active treatment, there was no significant difference in OS and RFS between patients with different CNSI status at diagnosis.
Humans
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Flow Cytometry
;
Precursor Cell Lymphoblastic Leukemia-Lymphoma/drug therapy*
;
Prognosis
;
Bone Marrow
;
Neoplasm, Residual
;
Recurrence
6.Establishment of evaluation method for disinfection efficacy of positive pressure bio-protective hood
Ke-Yin MENG ; Shan-Shan ZHANG ; Wan-Bo LUO ; Zhao-Yang BU ; Teng YAO ; Zhong-Hai WAN ; Peng DU ; Jun LIU
Chinese Medical Equipment Journal 2023;44(9):33-37
Objective To establish a method for evaluating the disinfecting effect of positive-pressure protective hoods by testing the disinfecting effect of canine influenza virus(CIV)on the positive-pressure protective hood with 1%Virkon S disinfectant.Methods The neutralizer was selected considering the characteristics of 1%Virkon S disinfectant in accordance with"Disinfection technical specifications"(2002 edition),and the effectiveness of the neutralizer was verified by determining median tissue culture infectious dose(TTCID50)of different samples inoculated with canine renal cells;in the same environment the effects of viral vectors and environment on viral activity were detected by measuring the TCID50 at different time points when CIV acted on the positive pressure protective hood;the optimal disinfection time was determined by establishing a viral vector model and a viral infiltration and sampling method,combining the results of viral recovery rates by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and viral titer measurements by TCID50 and 50%egg infectious dose(EID50).Results The phosphate buffer solution of 0.1%lecithin,2%Tween 80 and 0.5%sodium thiosulfate could be used as a neutralizer for 1%Virkon S disinfectant;the viral vectors and environment had no effects on CIV activity at different time points;the average recover rate was 96.12%for the samples inoculated with canine renal cells and 95.98%for the chicken eggs,and 1%Virkon S disinfectant behaved the best 4 min after its action on CIV on the positive-pressure protective hood.Conclusion The method proposed for evaluating the disinfection effect of the positive-pressure protective hood is effective in establishing optimal disinfection conditions for the positive-pressure protective hood.[Chinese Medical Equipment Journal,2023,44(9):33-37]
7.Outcomes at discharge of preterm infants born <34 weeks' gestation.
Ning Xin LUO ; Si Yuan JIANG ; Yun CAO ; Shu Jun LI ; Jun Yan HAN ; Qi ZHOU ; Meng Meng LI ; Jin Zhen GUO ; Hong Yan LIU ; Zu Ming YANG ; Yong JI ; Bao Quan ZHANG ; Zhi Feng HUANG ; Jing YUAN ; Dan Dan PAN ; Jing Yun SHI ; Xue Feng HU ; Su LIN ; Qian ZHAO ; Chang Hong YAN ; Le WANG ; Qiu Fen WEI ; Qing KAN ; Jin Zhi GAO ; Cui Qing LIU ; Shan Yu JIANG ; Xiang Hong LIU ; Hui Qing SUN ; Juan DU ; Li HE
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2022;60(8):774-780
Objective: To investigate the incidence and trend of short-term outcomes among preterm infants born <34 weeks' gestation. Methods: A secondary analysis of data from the standardized database established by a multicenter cluster-randomized controlled study "reduction of infection in neonatal intensive care units (NICU) using the evidence-based practice for improving quality (REIN-EPIQ) study". This study was conducted in 25 tertiary NICU. A total of 27 192 infants with gestational age <34 weeks at birth and admitted to NICU within the first 7 days of life from May 2015 to April 2018 were enrolled. Infants with severe congenital malformation were excluded. Descriptive analyses were used to describe the mortality and major morbidities of preterm infants by gestational age groups and different admission year groups. Cochran-Armitage test and Jonckheere-Terpstra test were used to analyze the trend of incidences of mortality and morbidities in 3 study-years. Multiple Logistic regression model was constructed to analyze the differences of outcomes in 3 study-years adjusting for confounders. Results: A total of 27 192 preterm infants were enrolled with gestational age of (31.3±2.0) weeks at birth and weight of (1 617±415) g at birth. Overall, 9.5% (2 594/27 192) of infants were discharged against medical advice, and the overall mortality rate was 10.7% (2 907/27 192). Mortality for infants who received complete care was 4.7% (1 147/24 598), and mortality or any major morbidity was 26.2% (6 452/24 598). The incidences of moderate to severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia, sepsis, severe intraventricular hemorrhage or periventricular leukomalacia, proven necrotizing enterocolitis, and severe retinopathy of prematurity were 16.0% (4 342/27 192), 11.9% (3 225/27 192), 6.8% (1 641/24 206), 3.6% (939/25 762) and 1.5% (214/13 868), respectively. There was a decreasing of the overall mortality (P<0.001) during the 3 years. Also, the incidences for sepsis and severe retinopathy of prematurity both decreased (both P<0.001). However, there were no significant differences in the major morbidity in preterm infants who received complete care during the 3-year study period (P=0.230). After adjusting for confounders, infants admitted during the third study year showed significantly lower risk of overall mortality (adjust OR=0.62, 95%CI 0.55-0.69, P<0.001), mortality or major morbidity, moderate to severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia, sepsis and severe retinopathy of prematurity, compared to those admitted in the first study year (all P<0.05). Conclusions: From 2015 to 2018, the mortality and major morbidities among preterm infants in Chinese NICU decreased, but there is still space for further efforts. Further targeted quality improvement is needed to improve the overall outcome of preterm infants.
Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia/epidemiology*
;
Gestational Age
;
Humans
;
Infant
;
Infant Mortality/trends*
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Infant, Premature
;
Infant, Premature, Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Patient Discharge
;
Retinopathy of Prematurity/epidemiology*
;
Sepsis/epidemiology*
8.A multicenter epidemiological study of acute bacterial meningitis in children.
Cai Yun WANG ; Hong Mei XU ; Jiao TIAN ; Si Qi HONG ; Gang LIU ; Si Xuan WANG ; Feng GAO ; Jing LIU ; Fu Rong LIU ; Hui YU ; Xia WU ; Bi Quan CHEN ; Fang Fang SHEN ; Guo ZHENG ; Jie YU ; Min SHU ; Lu LIU ; Li Jun DU ; Pei LI ; Zhi Wei XU ; Meng Quan ZHU ; Li Su HUANG ; He Yu HUANG ; Hai Bo LI ; Yuan Yuan HUANG ; Dong WANG ; Fang WU ; Song Ting BAI ; Jing Jing TANG ; Qing Wen SHAN ; Lian Cheng LAN ; Chun Hui ZHU ; Yan XIONG ; Jian Mei TIAN ; Jia Hui WU ; Jian Hua HAO ; Hui Ya ZHAO ; Ai Wei LIN ; Shuang Shuang SONG ; Dao Jiong LIN ; Qiong Hua ZHOU ; Yu Ping GUO ; Jin Zhun WU ; Xiao Qing YANG ; Xin Hua ZHANG ; Ying GUO ; Qing CAO ; Li Juan LUO ; Zhong Bin TAO ; Wen Kai YANG ; Yong Kang ZHOU ; Yuan CHEN ; Li Jie FENG ; Guo Long ZHU ; Yan Hong ZHANG ; Ping XUE ; Xiao Qin LI ; Zheng Zhen TANG ; De Hui ZHANG ; Xue Wen SU ; Zheng Hai QU ; Ying ZHANG ; Shi Yong ZHAO ; Zheng Hong QI ; Lin PANG ; Cai Ying WANG ; Hui Ling DENG ; Xing Lou LIU ; Ying Hu CHEN ; Sainan SHU
Chinese Journal of Pediatrics 2022;60(10):1045-1053
Objective: To analyze the clinical epidemiological characteristics including composition of pathogens , clinical characteristics, and disease prognosis acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) in Chinese children. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical and laboratory data of 1 610 children <15 years of age with ABM in 33 tertiary hospitals in China from January 2019 to December 2020. Patients were divided into different groups according to age,<28 days group, 28 days to <3 months group, 3 months to <1 year group, 1-<5 years of age group, 5-<15 years of age group; etiology confirmed group and clinically diagnosed group according to etiology diagnosis. Non-numeric variables were analyzed with the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, while non-normal distrituction numeric variables were compared with nonparametric test. Results: Among 1 610 children with ABM, 955 were male and 650 were female (5 cases were not provided with gender information), and the age of onset was 1.5 (0.5, 5.5) months. There were 588 cases age from <28 days, 462 cases age from 28 days to <3 months, 302 cases age from 3 months to <1 year of age group, 156 cases in the 1-<5 years of age and 101 cases in the 5-<15 years of age. The detection rates were 38.8% (95/245) and 31.5% (70/222) of Escherichia coli and 27.8% (68/245) and 35.1% (78/222) of Streptococcus agalactiae in infants younger than 28 days of age and 28 days to 3 months of age; the detection rates of Streptococcus pneumonia, Escherichia coli, and Streptococcus agalactiae were 34.3% (61/178), 14.0% (25/178) and 13.5% (24/178) in the 3 months of age to <1 year of age group; the dominant pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae and the detection rate were 67.9% (74/109) and 44.4% (16/36) in the 1-<5 years of age and 5-<15 years of age . There were 9.7% (19/195) strains of Escherichia coli producing ultra-broad-spectrum β-lactamases. The positive rates of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture and blood culture were 32.2% (515/1 598) and 25.0% (400/1 598), while 38.2% (126/330)and 25.3% (21/83) in CSF metagenomics next generation sequencing and Streptococcus pneumoniae antigen detection. There were 4.3% (32/790) cases of which CSF white blood cell counts were normal in etiology confirmed group. Among 1 610 children with ABM, main intracranial imaging complications were subdural effusion and (or) empyema in 349 cases (21.7%), hydrocephalus in 233 cases (14.5%), brain abscess in 178 cases (11.1%), and other cerebrovascular diseases, including encephalomalacia, cerebral infarction, and encephalatrophy, in 174 cases (10.8%). Among the 166 cases (10.3%) with unfavorable outcome, 32 cases (2.0%) died among whom 24 cases died before 1 year of age, and 37 cases (2.3%) had recurrence among whom 25 cases had recurrence within 3 weeks. The incidences of subdural effusion and (or) empyema, brain abscess and ependymitis in the etiology confirmed group were significantly higher than those in the clinically diagnosed group (26.2% (207/790) vs. 17.3% (142/820), 13.0% (103/790) vs. 9.1% (75/820), 4.6% (36/790) vs. 2.7% (22/820), χ2=18.71, 6.20, 4.07, all P<0.05), but there was no significant difference in the unfavorable outcomes, mortility, and recurrence between these 2 groups (all P>0.05). Conclusions: The onset age of ABM in children is usually within 1 year of age, especially <3 months. The common pathogens in infants <3 months of age are Escherichia coli and Streptococcus agalactiae, and the dominant pathogen in infant ≥3 months is Streptococcus pneumoniae. Subdural effusion and (or) empyema and hydrocephalus are common complications. ABM should not be excluded even if CSF white blood cell counts is within normal range. Standardized bacteriological examination should be paid more attention to increase the pathogenic detection rate. Non-culture CSF detection methods may facilitate the pathogenic diagnosis.
Adolescent
;
Brain Abscess
;
Child
;
Child, Preschool
;
Escherichia coli
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Hydrocephalus
;
Infant
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Male
;
Meningitis, Bacterial/epidemiology*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Streptococcus agalactiae
;
Streptococcus pneumoniae
;
Subdural Effusion
;
beta-Lactamases
9.Clinical analysis of 10 cases with extramedullary plasmacytoma of the head and neck.
Jun Fu WU ; Li Yuan DAI ; Meng CUI ; Gang LI ; Lu FENG ; Rui Hua LUO ; Wei DU ; Shan Ting LIU
Chinese Journal of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2022;57(2):197-200
Objective: To explore the clinical characteristics, treatment methods and outcomes of extramedullary plasmacytoma of the head and neck. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 10 cases with extramedullary plasmacytoma of the head and neck who were admitted to Henan Tumor Hospital from January 2005 to January 2020. Among the 10 patients, 6 were male and 4 were female. The average age at diagnosis was 56.3 years old (34-74 years old). Among them, 3 cases were located in the nasal cavity, 2 cases in the nasopharynx, 1 case in the sinuses, 2 cases in the larynx, 1 case in the oropharynx, and 1 case in the cervical lymph nodes. Treatments were administered according to tumor size and resection extent. Complete surgical excision (negative margins) was preferred, followed by adjuvant radiotherapy or radiotherapy alone. The clinical characteristics, diagnosis, treatment and prognosis of EMP were analyzed. Results: The patients' symptoms were not specific, frequently with local obstruction symptom and localized masses. All patients were confirmed pathologically as suffering from monoclonal plasmacytoma, with negative bone marrow biopsy and negative skeletal survey. Five patients received surgery, 3 received radiotherapy, and 2 received surgery with additional radiation. The follow-up time was 16-125 months, with a median of 92 months. Two patients developed into multiple myeloma. One patient who received radiotherapy after surgery relapsed after 7 years of follow-up and again received surgical treatment, with no evidence of second recurrence. The remaining patients had no recurrence or progression. Conclusion: Extramedullary plasmacytoma of the head and neck has a good prognosis. Surgical treatment can be considered for completely resectable lesions.
Adult
;
Aged
;
Female
;
Head and Neck Neoplasms/therapy*
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Multiple Myeloma/pathology*
;
Plasmacytoma/surgery*
;
Prognosis
;
Retrospective Studies
10.A comparative study of ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting hospital discharge number
Shuping WANG ; Min LI ; Min DU ; Shan LIU ; Ying LIANG ; Jianwei LUO
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2021;32(1):18-21
Objective To fit and predict the monthly discharge number of a specialist hospital using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network model (LSTM), and compare the prediction effects of the two models. Methods ARIMA and LSTM models were constructed based on the monthly discharge number of a specialist hospital from 2013 to 2018. The resulting models were then used to predict the monthly discharge numbers in 2019, which were compared with actual data. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to evaluate the prediction effect of these two models. Results The MAPE values of ARIMA and LSTM compared to actual data in 2019 were 7.90% and 14.26%, respectively. Conclusion The prediction effect of ARIMA was better than that of LSTM. The prediction results of ARIMA showed that the number of patients discharged from the specialist hospital in 2019 was increasing, which fit well with the actual data.


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