Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective To explore the diagnostic value of exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for cystic fibrosis (CF). Methods A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, EMbase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, and SinoMed databases up to August 7, 2024. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were selected for data extraction and quality assessment. The quality of included studies was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS), and the risk of bias and applicability of included prediction model studies were assessed by the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Results A total of 10 studies were included, among which 5 studies only identified specific exhaled VOCs in CF patients, and another 5 developed 7 CF risk prediction models based on the identification of VOCs in CF. The included studies reported a total of 75 exhaled VOCs, most of which belonged to the categories of acylcarnitines, aldehydes, acids, and esters. Most models (n=6, 85.7%) only included exhaled VOCs as predictive factors, and only one model included factors other than VOCs, including forced expiratory flow at 75% of forced vital capacity (FEF75) and modified Medical Research Council scale for the assessment of dyspnea (mMRC). The accuracy of the models ranged from 77% to 100%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.771 to 0.988. None of the included studies provided information on the calibration of the models. The results of the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) showed that the overall bias risk of all predictive model studies was high, and the overall applicability was unclear. Conclusion The exhaled VOCs reported in the included studies showed significant heterogeneity, and more research is needed to explore specific compounds for CF. In addition, risk prediction models based on exhaled VOCs have certain value in the diagnosis of CF, but the overall bias risk is relatively high and needs further optimization from aspects such as model construction and validation.

OBJECTIVE To optimize the simmering technology of Rheum palmatum from Menghe Medical School and compare the difference of chemical components before and after processing. METHODS Using appearance score， the contents of gallic acid， 5-hydroxymethylfurfural （5-HMF）， sennoside A+sennoside B， combined anthraquinone and free anthraquinone as indexes， analytic hierarchy process （AHP）-entropy weight method was used to calculate the comprehensive score of evaluation indicators； the orthogonal experiment was designed to optimize the processing technology of simmering R. palmatum with fire temperature， simmering time， paper layer number and paper wrapping time as factors； validation test was conducted. The changes in the contents of five anthraquinones （aloe-emodin， rhein， emodin， chrysophanol， physcion）， five anthraquinone glycosides （barbaloin， rheinoside， rhubarb glycoside， emodin glycoside， and emodin methyl ether glycoside）， two sennosides （sennoside A， sennoside B）， gallic acid and 5-HMF were compared between simmered R. palmatum prepared by optimized technology and R. palmatum. RESULTS The optimal processing conditions of R. palmatum was as follows: each 80 g R. palmatum was wrapped with a layer of wet paper for 0.5 h， simmered on high heat for 20 min and then simmered at 140 ℃， the total simmering time was 2.5 h. The average comprehensive score of 3 validation tests was 94.10 （RSD＜1.0%）. After simmering， the contents of five anthraquinones and two sennosides were decreased significantly， while those of 5 free anthraquinones and gallic acid were increased to different extents； a new component 5-HMF was formed. CONCLUSIONS This study successfully optimizes the simmering technology of R. palmatum. There is a significant difference in the chemical components before and after processing， which can explain that simmering technology slows down the relase of R. palmatum and beneficiate it.

[Objective] To evaluate the efficacy and safety of sacral neuromodulation (SNM) in the treatment of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) complicated with underactive bladder (UAB) who respond poorly to transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). [Methods] A retrospective analysis was performed on 10 patients with BPH and UAB treated with TURP by the same surgeon in Zhongda Hospital Southeast University during Jan.2018 and Jan.2023.The residual urine volume was not significantly relieved after operation, and the maximum urine flow rate and urine volume per discharge were not significantly improved.All patients underwent phase I SNM, and urinary diaries were recorded before and after surgery to observe the average daily frequency of urination, volume per urination, maximum urine flow rate, and residual urine volume. [Results] The operation time was (97.6±11.2) min.During the postoperative test of 2-4 weeks, if the residual urine volume reduction by more than 50% was deemed as effective, SNM was effective in 6 patients (60.0%). Compared with preoperative results, the daily frequency of urination [(20.2±3.8) times vs. (13.2±3.2) times], volume per urination [(119.2±56.7) mL vs. (246.5±59.2) mL], maximum urine flow rate [(8.7±1.5) mL/s vs. (16.5±2.6) mL/s], and residual urine volume [(222.5±55.0) mL vs. (80.8±16.0) mL] were significantly improved, with statistical significance (P<0.05). There were no complications such as bleeding, infection, fever or pain.The 6 patients who had effective outcomes successfully completed phase II surgery, and the fistula was removed.During the follow-up of 1 year, the curative effect was stable, and there were no complications such as electrode displacement, incision infection, or pain in the irritation sites.The residual urine volume of the other 4 unsuccessful patients did not improve significantly, and the electrodes were removed and the vesicostomy tube was retained. [Conclusion] SNM is safe and effective in the treatment of BPH with UAB patients with poor curative effects after TURP.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure （CHF）. METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group， Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups （12.25， 24.50 g/kg， calculated by crude drug）， and chemical medicine group （Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets， 10.42 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group； control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication， the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） and adenosine triphosphate （ATP） in serum and phosphatidic acid （PA） and cardiolipin （CL） in myocardial tissue were all detected； the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed； the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined； the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed； the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 （Mfn1）， Mfn2， optic atrophy protein 1 （OPA1） and dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1） were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group，the serum content of NT-proBNP， apoptotic rate of myocardial cells， and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly； serum content of ATP，contents of PA and CL， and relative expressions of Mfn1， Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced （P＜0.05）. There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue， degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells， and severe fibrosis； the mitochondria were swollen， with reduced or absent cristae， and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction， the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats （excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group） were significantly reversed （P＜0.05）； the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved， fibrosis had significantly reduced， mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal， cristae had increased， and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats， thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis， the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.

Ankylosing spondylitis is a chronic immunoinflammatory disease that mainly affects the spine and the sacroiliac joint， the mechanism of which is closely related to signaling pathways， such as osteoprotegerin （OPG）/receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB （RANK）/RANK ligand， mitogen-activated protein kinase （MAPK）， Wnt/β-catenin （β-catenin）， phosphoinositide 3- kinase/protein kinase B/mammalian target of rapamycin （PI3K/Akt/mTOR）. Traditional Chinese medicine has the characteristics of multiple components and targets， and is widely used for the treatment of autoimmune diseases due to its low toxicity， strong specificity， and high efficacy. This review found that monomers and compounds of traditional Chinese medicine can exert anti ankylosing spondylitis effects by intervening in the aforementioned signaling pathways， regulating immune inflammatory responses， and inhibiting biological processes such as bone destruction， ectopic osteogenic differentiation， cell apoptosis， and autophagy.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the effects and potential mechanism of Qiangxin decoction on mitochondrion of rats with chronic heart failure （CHF）. METHODS The CHF model was established by ligating the left anterior descending branch of the coronary artery. Modeled rats were divided into model group， Qiangxin decoction low-dose and high-dose groups （12.25， 24.50 g/kg， calculated by crude drug）， and chemical medicine group （Sacubitril valsartan sodium tablets， 10.42 mg/kg）， with 10 rats in each group； control group was set up without treatment. Each group of rats was orally administered with the corresponding medication or normal saline twice a day for 28 consecutive days. After the last medication， the contents of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） and adenosine triphosphate （ATP） in serum and phosphatidic acid （PA） and cardiolipin （CL） in myocardial tissue were all detected； the pathological damage and collagen fibrosis of rat myocardial tissue were observed； the apoptosis of myocardial cells was determined； the ultrastructure of myocardial tissue was observed； the protein expressions of mitofusin 1 （Mfn1）， Mfn2， optic atrophy protein 1 （OPA1） and dynamin-related protein 1 （Drp1） were all detected in myocardial tissue. RESULTS Compared with control group，the serum content of NT-proBNP， apoptotic rate of myocardial cells， and relative expressions of S-OPA1 and Drp1 proteins were all increased significantly； serum content of ATP，contents of PA and CL， and relative expressions of Mfn1， Mfn2 and L-OPA1 proteins were all significantly reduced （P＜0.05）. There were abnormal membrane tissue structure in various layers of myocardial tissue， degeneration and necrosis of myocardial cells， and severe fibrosis； the mitochondria were swollen， with reduced or absent cristae， and uneven matrix density. After intervention with Qiangxin decoction， the levels of the aforementioned quantitative indicators in serum and myocardial tissue of rats （excluding CL content in the Qiangxin decoction low- dose group） were significantly reversed （P＜0.05）； the pathological damage of myocardial tissue had significantly improved， fibrosis had significantly reduced， mitochondrial morphology tended to be normal， cristae had increased， and matrix density was uniform. CONCLUSIONS Qiangxin decoction can regulate myocardial mitochondrial function and structural integrity of CHF rats， thereby improving myocardial energy metabolism and antagonizing myocardial fibrosis， the mechanism of which may be associated with activating PA/Mfn/CL signaling pathway.

AIM: To observe the changes of retinal nerve fiber layer(RNFL)thickness and radial peripheral capillary(RPC)density in patients with unilateral branch retinal vein occlusion(BRVO), and further analyze the correlation between RPC density and RNFL thickness.METHODS: Observational study. Totally 37 patients with unilateral BRVO diagnosed at the ophthalmology department of First Hospital of Qinhuangdao from October 2020 to January 2022 were selected, the 37 affected eyes were the unilateral BRVO group, and 37 fellow healthy eyes were the contralateral unaffected group, and 35 healthy individuals(35 right eyes were selected)without ocular diseases during the same period were selected as the normal control group. The best corrected visual acuity, intraocular pressure, anterior segment, fundus and optical coherence tomography angiography(OCTA)were examined in both eyes of all BRVO patients and healthy individuals. The central macular thickness(CMT), the RNFL thickness, and the optic disc-AV crossing distance(DAVD)were measured by built-in software of the OCTA equipment. The optimized U-net algorithm was used to eliminate the large blood vessels, and then the RPC density was calculated. The CMT, RNFL thickness and RPC density were compared among the three groups. And the correlations of the RPC density with the CMT, RNFL thickness, and the DAVD were investigated.RESULTS: Compared with the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group, the CMT and the RNFL thickness were significantly thickened in the unilateral BRVO group(all P<0.05); there were no statistical differences in the CMT and the RNFL thickness between the contralateral unaffected group and the normal control group(all P>0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group increased compared with the contralateral unaffected group and decreased compared with the normal control group, but there was no statistically difference(all P>0.05). However, the RPC density in the contralateral unaffected group decreased compared with the normal control group(P<0.05). The RPC density in the unilateral BRVO group was not correlated with the CMT(P=0.960), but positively correlated with the RNFL thickness(r=0.401, P=0.014)and negatively correlated with the DAVD(r=-0.339, P=0.040).CONCLUSION: The RNFL thickened significantly and the RPC density did not change significantly in the optic disc area of BRVO patients. The RPC density is positively correlated with the RNFL thickness, indicating that the RNFL thickness can be used as a monitoring indicator to analyze and study the damage degree of the RPC density.

Objective To investigate the changes in eosinophil counts and the activation of microglial cells in the brain tissues of mice at different stages of Angiostrongylus cantonensis infection, and to examine the role of microglia in regulating the progression of angiostrongyliasis and unravel the possible molecular mechanisms. Methods Fifty BALB/c mice were randomly divided into the control group and the 7-d, 14-d, 21-day and 25-d infection groups, of 10 mice in each group. All mice in infection groups were infected with 30 stage III A. cantonensis larvae by gavage, and animals in the control group was given an equal amount of physiological saline. Five mice were collected from each of infection groups on days 7, 14, 21 d and 25 d post-infection, and 5 mice were collected from the control group on the day of oral gavage. The general and focal functional impairment was scored using the Clark scoring method to assess the degree of mouse neurological impairment. Five mice from each of infection groups were sacrificed on days 7, 14, 21 d and 25 d post-infection, and 5 mice from the control group were sacrificed on the day of oral gavage. Mouse brain tissues were sampled, and the pathological changes of brain tissues were dynamically observed using hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining. Immunofluorescence staining with eosinophilic cationic protein (ECP) and ionized calcium binding adaptor molecule 1 (Iba1) was used to assess the degree of eosinophil infiltration and the counts of microglial cells in mouse brain tissues in each group, and the morphological parameters of microglial cells (skeleton analysis and fractal analysis) were quantified by using Image J software to determine the morphological changes of microglial cells. In addition, the expression of M1 microglia markers Fcγ receptor III (Fcgr3), Fcγ receptor IIb (Fcgr2b) and CD86 antigen (Cd86), M2 microglia markers Arginase 1 (Arg1), macrophage mannose receptor C-type 1 (Mrc1), chitinase-like 3 (Chil3), and phagocytosis genes myeloid cell triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (Trem2), CD68 antigen (Cd68), and apolipoprotein E (Apoe) was quantified using real-time quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) assay in the mouse cerebral cortex of mice post-infection. Results A large number of A. cantonensis larvae were seen on the mouse meninges surface post-infection, and many neuronal nuclei were crumpled and deeply stained, with a large number of bleeding points in the meninges. The median Clark scores of mouse general functional impairment were 0 (interquartile range, 0), 0 (interquartile range, 0.5), 6 (interquartile range, 1.0), 14 (interquartile range, 8.5) points and 20 (interquartile range, 9.0) points in the control group and the 7-d, 14-d, 21-d and 25-d groups, respectively (H = 22.45, P < 0.01), and the median Clark scores of mouse focal functional impairment were 0 (interquartile range, 0), 2 (interquartile range, 2.5), 7 (interquartile range, 3.0), 18 (interquartile range, 5.0) points and 25 (interquartile range, 6.5) points in the control group and the 7-d, 14-d, 21-d and 25-d groups, respectively (H = 22.72, P < 0.01). The mean scores of mice general and focal functional impairment were all higher in the infection groups than in the control group (all P values < 0.05). Immunofluorescence staining showed a significant difference in the eosinophil counts in mouse brain tissues among the five groups (F = 40.05, P < 0.000 1), and the eosinophil counts were significantly higher in mouse brain tissues in the 14-d (3.08 ± 0.78) and 21-d infection groups (5.97 ± 1.37) than in the control group (1.00 ± 0.28) (both P values < 0.05). Semi-quantitative analysis of microglia immunofluorescence showed a significant difference in the counts of microglial cells among the five groups (F = 17.66, P < 0.000 1), and higher Iba1 levels were detected in mouse brain tissues in 14-d (5.75 ± 1.28), 21-d (6.23 ± 1.89) and 25-d infection groups (3.70 ± 1.30) than in the control group (1.00 ± 0.30) (all P values < 0.05). Skeleton and fractal analyses showed that the branch length [(162.04 ± 34.10) μm vs. (395.37 ± 64.11) μm; t = 5.566, P < 0.05] and fractal dimension of microglial cells (1.30 ± 0.01 vs. 1.41 ± 0.03; t = 5.266, P < 0.05) were reduced in mouse brain tissues in the 21-d infection group relative to the control group. In addition, there were significant differences among the 5 groups in terms of M1 and M2 microglia markers Fcgr3 (F = 48.34, P < 0.05), Fcgr2b (F = 55.46, P < 0.05), Cd86 (F = 24.44, P < 0.05), Arg1 (F = 31.18, P < 0.05), Mrc1 (F = 15.42, P < 0.05) and Chil3 (F = 24.41, P < 0.05), as well as phagocytosis markers Trem2 (F = 21.19, P < 0.05), Cd68 (F = 43.95, P < 0.05) and Apoe (F = 7.12, P < 0.05) in mice brain tissues. Conclusions A. cantonensis infections may induce severe pathological injuries in mouse brain tissues that are characterized by massive eosinophil infiltration and persistent activation of microglia cells, thereby resulting in progressive deterioration of neurological functions.

As new evidence emerges, treatment strategies toward the functional cure of chronic hepatitis B are evolving. In 2019, a panel of national hepatologists published a Consensus Statement on the functional cure of chronic hepatitis B. Currently, an international group of hepatologists has been assembled to evaluate research since the publication of the original consensus, and to collaboratively develop the updated statements. The 2.0 Consensus was aimed to update the original consensus with the latest available studies, and provide a comprehensive overview of the current relevant scientific literatures regarding functional cure of hepatitis B, with a particular focus on issues that are not yet fully clarified. These cover the definition of functional cure of hepatitis B, its mechanisms and barriers, the effective strategies and treatment roadmap to achieve this endpoint, in particular new surrogate biomarkers used to measure efficacy or to predict response, and the appropriate approach to pursuing a functional cure in special populations, the development of emerging antivirals and immunomodulators with potential for curing hepatitis B. The statements are primarily intended to offer international guidance for clinicians in their practice to enhance the functional cure rate of chronic hepatitis B.