Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Autoimmune hepatitis （AIH） is a chronic inflammatory liver disease. The pathogenesis of AIH remains unclear， but it is mainly autoimmune injury caused by the breakdown of autoimmune tolerance due to the abnormal activation of the immune system， while the specific molecular mechanism remains unknown. Recent studies have shown that abnormal amino acid metabolism plays an important role in the development and progression of AIH. This article reviews the research advances in amino acid metabolic reprogramming in AIH， in order to provide a theoretical basis for amino acid metabolism as a new target for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of AIH.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of acupuncture-moxibustion on idiopathic facial palsy (IFP) at acute phase and recovery phase. METHODS: According to whether received acupuncture-moxibustion at acute phase or not, 198 IFP patients were divided into an early-phase intervention group (118 cases) and a non-early-phase intervention group (80 cases). With the propensity score matching employed, 70 cases were included in each group. On the basis of the conventional treatment of western medicine, acupuncture-moxibustion was supplemented in the two groups. In the early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was delivered at the acute phase (duration of illness≤7 days); in the non-early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was operated at the recovery phase (duration of illness>7 days). At the acute phase, warm needling was performed at Yifeng (TE17), Xiaguan (ST7), Hegu (LI4) and Zusanli (ST36) on the affected side; and at the recovery phase, electroacupuncture was delivered at Cuanzhu (BL2), Sizhukong (TE23) and Yangbai (GB14), etc. on the affected side, with the disperse-dense wave and 2 Hz/100 Hz of frequency. The intervention was operated for 30 min each time, once every two days, three treatments weekly and for 4 weeks. Before treatment, 1 week and 4 weeks of treatment, the House-Brackmann (H-B) facial nerve function grade, the score of Sunnybrook facial nerve function, and the score of facial disability index (FDI) were compared between the two groups. The clinical effect in 1 and 4 weeks of treatment and safety were evaluated. RESULTS: In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, the H-B grade was improved when compared with that before treatment in each group (P<0.05), and in 4 weeks of treatment, H-B grade in the early-phase intervention group was superior to that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, Sunnybrook scores and the scores of physical function of FDI were elevated in comparison with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05); and in 4 weeks of treatment, the elevation of these two indexes in the early-phase intervention group was greater than that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the scores of social function in FDI were reduced when compared with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the total effective rate (97.1%, 68/70) in the early-phase intervention group was higher than that (87.1%, 61/70) of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two groups (P>0.05). CONCLUSION Acupuncture-moxibustion therapy starting at the acute phase is more beneficial to the functional recovery of the impaired facial nerve than at the recovery phase in the IFP patients.
Humans ; Female ; Male ; Acupuncture Therapy ; Moxibustion ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Acupuncture Points ; Treatment Outcome ; Facial Paralysis/therapy* ; Cohort Studies ; Aged ; Bell Palsy/therapy* ; Adolescent

Objective:To develop the Suicide Outcomes Scale for Undergraduates with Suicidal Ideation(SO-SUSI)and test its validity and reliability.Methods:Based on semi-structured interview,literature review and expert discussion,main aspects and indicator system were defined.The initial version of SOSUSI was formed,and items were either modified from existing scales targeting the relevant constructs,or compiled according to previous inter-view results.A total of 607 undergraduates with suicidal ideation were enrolled.The sample was randomly divided in half,one half(n=317)was used for item analysis and exploratory factor analysis,and another half(n=290)for confirmatory factor analysis.All data were used for reliability analysis.The Self-rating Depression Scale(SDS)and Suicidal Intent(SI)were used for criterion validity.Results:The SOSUSI included 39 items in 4 dimensions(nega-tive reinforcement of suicide,negative consequences of suicide,loss of suicide,and positive reinforcement of sui-cide)which explained 50.10％of the total variance.Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the four-factor struc-ture model fitted well(x2/df=3.27,CFI=0.92,TLI=0.91,IFI=0.92,SRMR=0.09).The scores of negative re-inforcement and positive reinforcement of suicide were positively correlated with the SDS and SI scores(ICC=0.15-0.33,Ps＜0.05),while the scores of negative consequences and loss of suicide were negatively correlated with the SI scores(ICC=-0.42--0.56,Ps＜0.05).The Cronbach's α coefficients of each dimension ranged from 0.79 to 0.91.Conclusion:The Suicide Outcomes Scale for Undergraduates with Suicidal Ideation(SOSUSI)has good validity and internal consistency reliability.

Objective To explore the correlation of CPNE3 expression with long-term prognosis of patients with gastric cancer(GC)and the possible mechanism.Methods We retrospectively collected the data of 104 GC patients undergoing radical surgery in our hospital from February,2013 to October,2017.TCGA database and immunohistochemistry were used to analyze CPNE3 expression level in GC tissues and its effects on tumor progression and long-term prognosis of the patients.GO analysis was performed to predict the biological role of CPNE3 in GC.We also conducted cell experiments with MGC803 cells and observed the effects of CPNE3 knockdown,CPNE3 overexpression and LY294002(a PI3K/AKT inhibitor)treatment on cell apoptosis and cellular expressions of apoptotic proteins using flow cytometry and Western blotting.Results TCGA analysis and immunohistochemistry both showed high expressions of CPNE3 in GC(P<0.05).The patients with high CPNE3 expressions had a reduced 5-year survival(P<0.01),and a high CPNE3 expression,CEA level≥5 μg/L,CA19-9 level≥37 kU/L,T3-T4 stage,and N2-N3 stage were all independent risk factors for a lowered 5-year survival rate after surgery.The sensitivity and specificity of CPNE3 for predicting 5-year mortality was 79.59%and 74.55%,respectively(P<0.05).GO analysis predicted that CPNE3 negatively regulated GC cell apoptosis.In MGC803 cells,CPNE3 knockdown significantly increased cell apoptosis,enhanced Bax and Cleaved Caspase-3 expressions and decreased Bcl-2 expression,while CPNE3 overexpression produced the opposite results(P<0.05).The cellular expressions of p-PI3K and p-AKT were significantly decreased following CPNE3 knockdown and increased following CPNE3 overexpression(P<0.05).Treatment with LY294002 obviously attenuated the inhibitory effect of CPNE3 overexpression on apoptosis of MGC803 cells(P<0.05).Conclusion CPNE3 is highly expressed in GC tissues and affects the long-term prognosis of the patients possibly by inhibiting GC cell apoptosis through activation of PI3K/AKT signaling.

  Objective  To evaluate the severity and features of pelvic coronal plane tilt in individuals with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) who had lumbar curvature during the gait cycle.  Methods  AIS patients with lumbar curvature and patients with microcurvature (Cobb Angle less than 10 degrees) treated in Peking Union Medical College Hospital from September 2020 to February 2023 were retrospectively included. According to PUMC conservative classification system and Spinal Full-length Standing X-ray, AIS patients with lumbar curvature were enrolled. The bilateral iliac crest was used as the bony marker of the pelvic coronal surface, and the bilateral iliac crest height and its changes were measured during the standing position and walking cycle, so as to evaluate the degree of pelvic coronal tilt in AIS patients with lumbar curvature.  Results  A total of 209 AIS patients with lumbar curvature and 36 patients with microcurvature who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled. The proportion of AIS patients with lumbar curvature who had a "congruent" relationship between the higher iliac crest and the convex side of the spine in standing position (iliac crest lower on the convex side than on the concave side) was significantly higher in AIS patients with lumbar curvature than patients with microcurvature(58.9% vs. 30.6%, P=0.002). AIS patients with lumbar curvature had statistically different bilateral iliac crest height change values throughout the gait cycle (including minimum, maximum, swing phase minimum, and swing phase maximum) (all P < 0.001), and the iliac crest height change values on the convex side were significantly higher than those on the concave side (all P < 0.05), whereas the patients with microcurvature did not have any statistically significant bilateral iliac crest height change values throughout the gait cycle (all P > 0.05).  Conclusion  The height of the iliac crest on the convex side of the lumbar spine is lower than that on the concave side in the standing position of AIS patients with lumbar curvature, and the value of the change of the iliac crest on the convex side of the pelvis is greater than that on the concave side in walking to maintain the balance of the body, which may provide a new direction for the intervention in the clinical rehabilitation treatment of AIS patients with lumbar curvature.

Autoimmune hepatitis(AIH)is a type of chronic hepatitis caused by the attack of hepatocytes by the autoimmune system,and with the prolongation of disease course,it may gradually progress to liver cirrhosis and even hepatocellular carcinoma.Although great achievements have been made in the understanding and treatment of AIH,its etiology and pathogenesis still remain unclear.T cells play a crucial role in the development and progression of AIH,and by focusing on follicular helper T cells,this article elaborates on the research advances in follicular helper T cells in AIH,in order to provide new ideas and strategies for the clinical treatment of AIH.

Autoimmune hepatitis(AIH)is chronic hepatitis caused by the attack of live cells by the immune system,and at present,the pathogenesis of AIH remains unclear.Inflammasomes are important components of innate immunity and are involved in a variety of pathophysiological processes.Studies have shown that inflammatory response associated with nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor protein 3(NLRP3)plays an important role in the pathogenesis of AIH,which mainly mediates the release of proinflammatory factors and pyroptosis,thereby participating in the pathophysiological process of AIH.Therefore,the development and progression of AIH can be delayed by inhibiting the activation of NLRP3 inflammasomes,which provides new ideas for the prevention and treatment of AIH.