Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Autoimmune hepatitis （AIH） is a chronic inflammatory liver disease. The pathogenesis of AIH remains unclear， but it is mainly autoimmune injury caused by the breakdown of autoimmune tolerance due to the abnormal activation of the immune system， while the specific molecular mechanism remains unknown. Recent studies have shown that abnormal amino acid metabolism plays an important role in the development and progression of AIH. This article reviews the research advances in amino acid metabolic reprogramming in AIH， in order to provide a theoretical basis for amino acid metabolism as a new target for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of AIH.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

Objective: To explore the application and clinical efficacy of red blood cell therapeutic apheresis in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) and hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). Methods: 1) The EPP patient was hospitalized twice for "abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting, and brown urine". One and two sessions of red blood cell exchange/therapeutic plasma exchange (RCE/TPE) were respectively performed during the two hospitalizations. During each session, one RCE with 6-8 units of leukoreduced RBCs and 3-4 TPE procedures with 1 800-2 000 mL of frozen plasma was conducted. Biochemical parameters were monitored before and after treatment. 2) The HH patient was hospitalized for “repeatedly elevated aminotransferases”. Erythrocytapheresis was performed once, removing 550 mL of red blood cells, and venous phlebotomy was conducted once every 2 months subsequently. Blood routine and ferritin levels were assessed before and after treatment. Results: 1) During the first hospitalization, the EPP patient was relieved of the abdominal pain and brown urine after therapeutic apheresis. The total bilirubin level decreased from 141.8 μmol/L on admission to 68.6 μmol/L at discharge, with a symptom remission duration of 10 months. During the second hospitalization, the EPP patient still had recurrent abdominal pain after therapeutic apheresis. He developed psychiatric symptoms and gastrointestinal bleeding subsequently, accompanied by elevated bilirubin levels. Liver function deteriorated and the patient went into the state of the end-stage liver disease (ESLD). 2) For the HH patient, the hemoglobin level prior to erythrocytapheresis and vein phlebotomy was 150-160 g/L, with the lowest value occurring two days after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 107 g/L. The ferritin level before erythrocytapheresis was 2 428.08 ng/mL and it declined gradually after theraphy, with the lowest value occurring two months after erythrocytapheresis, decreasing to 1 094 ng/mL. The ferritin level was 1 114 ng/mL two months following the first vein phlebotomy, however it increased to 1 472 ng/mL two months after the second vein phlebotomy. Conclusion: RCE/TPE may alleviate protoporphyrin liver disease and help patients with bridging liver transplantation before EPP developments to ESLD. For HH patients with significantly elevated ferritin levels, erythrocytapheresis reduces serum ferritin more quickly and maintains its level longer relative to phlebotomy.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of acupuncture-moxibustion on idiopathic facial palsy (IFP) at acute phase and recovery phase. METHODS: According to whether received acupuncture-moxibustion at acute phase or not, 198 IFP patients were divided into an early-phase intervention group (118 cases) and a non-early-phase intervention group (80 cases). With the propensity score matching employed, 70 cases were included in each group. On the basis of the conventional treatment of western medicine, acupuncture-moxibustion was supplemented in the two groups. In the early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was delivered at the acute phase (duration of illness≤7 days); in the non-early-phase intervention group, acupuncture-moxibustion was operated at the recovery phase (duration of illness>7 days). At the acute phase, warm needling was performed at Yifeng (TE17), Xiaguan (ST7), Hegu (LI4) and Zusanli (ST36) on the affected side; and at the recovery phase, electroacupuncture was delivered at Cuanzhu (BL2), Sizhukong (TE23) and Yangbai (GB14), etc. on the affected side, with the disperse-dense wave and 2 Hz/100 Hz of frequency. The intervention was operated for 30 min each time, once every two days, three treatments weekly and for 4 weeks. Before treatment, 1 week and 4 weeks of treatment, the House-Brackmann (H-B) facial nerve function grade, the score of Sunnybrook facial nerve function, and the score of facial disability index (FDI) were compared between the two groups. The clinical effect in 1 and 4 weeks of treatment and safety were evaluated. RESULTS: In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, the H-B grade was improved when compared with that before treatment in each group (P<0.05), and in 4 weeks of treatment, H-B grade in the early-phase intervention group was superior to that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 1 and 4 weeks of treatment, Sunnybrook scores and the scores of physical function of FDI were elevated in comparison with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05); and in 4 weeks of treatment, the elevation of these two indexes in the early-phase intervention group was greater than that of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the scores of social function in FDI were reduced when compared with those before treatment in the two groups (P<0.05). In 4 weeks of treatment, the total effective rate (97.1%, 68/70) in the early-phase intervention group was higher than that (87.1%, 61/70) of the non-early-phase intervention group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse events between the two groups (P>0.05). CONCLUSION Acupuncture-moxibustion therapy starting at the acute phase is more beneficial to the functional recovery of the impaired facial nerve than at the recovery phase in the IFP patients.
Humans ; Female ; Male ; Acupuncture Therapy ; Moxibustion ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Young Adult ; Acupuncture Points ; Treatment Outcome ; Facial Paralysis/therapy* ; Cohort Studies ; Aged ; Bell Palsy/therapy* ; Adolescent

Objective:To evaluate the clinical efficacy, tolerability and safety of adjunctive perampanel in focal epilepsy patients≥12 years old.Methods:One hundred and nineteen focal epilepsy patients≥12 years old accepted adjunctive perampanel in Department of Neurology, First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from July 2020 to December 2022 were chosen. At 1-3 months, 4-6 months, 7-9 months and 10-12 months after adjunctive perampanel, seizure frequency changes every 28 d, medication retention rate and adverse reactions were recorded to evaluate the clinical efficacy (a reduction in seizure frequency≥50% from baseline was defined as overall valid treatment), tolerability and safety of adjunctive perampanel. According to efficacy results after adjunctive perampanel of 4-6 months (short-term) and 10-12 months (long-term), these patients were divided into valid group and invalid group; and the influencing factors for short-term and long-term efficacy were analyzed.Results:At 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 months after adjunctive perampanel, reduction in seizure frequency every 28 d was 66.7% (24.3%, 97.2%), 77.5% (48.6%, 100%), 94.6% (50%, 100%), 100% (70.9%, 100%), enjoying overall valid rate of 60.2% (59/98), 75.0% (7/76), 78.9% (45/57), 86.5% (32/37). The retention rate at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months after adjunctive perampanel was 85.2% (98/115), 67.9% (76/112), 54.3% (57/105), 41.1% (37/90). Adverse reactions were reported in 33 patents (27.7%), mainly with dizziness and secondly with mental symptoms. After short-term and long-term adjunctive perampanel, no significant difference was noted in gender, initial age of adjunctive perampanel, course of disease, etiology, EEG results, imaging results, number and type of combined anti-seizure drugs, or maximum dose of pirampanel between the valid group and invalid group ( P>0.05). Conclusion:Perampanel has good efficacy, tolerability and safety in adolescents and adults≥12 years old with focal epilepsy; no clear influencing factors for pirampanel valid treatment is found so far.

Objective:To develop the Suicide Outcomes Scale for Undergraduates with Suicidal Ideation(SO-SUSI)and test its validity and reliability.Methods:Based on semi-structured interview,literature review and expert discussion,main aspects and indicator system were defined.The initial version of SOSUSI was formed,and items were either modified from existing scales targeting the relevant constructs,or compiled according to previous inter-view results.A total of 607 undergraduates with suicidal ideation were enrolled.The sample was randomly divided in half,one half(n=317)was used for item analysis and exploratory factor analysis,and another half(n=290)for confirmatory factor analysis.All data were used for reliability analysis.The Self-rating Depression Scale(SDS)and Suicidal Intent(SI)were used for criterion validity.Results:The SOSUSI included 39 items in 4 dimensions(nega-tive reinforcement of suicide,negative consequences of suicide,loss of suicide,and positive reinforcement of sui-cide)which explained 50.10％of the total variance.Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the four-factor struc-ture model fitted well(x2/df=3.27,CFI=0.92,TLI=0.91,IFI=0.92,SRMR=0.09).The scores of negative re-inforcement and positive reinforcement of suicide were positively correlated with the SDS and SI scores(ICC=0.15-0.33,Ps＜0.05),while the scores of negative consequences and loss of suicide were negatively correlated with the SI scores(ICC=-0.42--0.56,Ps＜0.05).The Cronbach's α coefficients of each dimension ranged from 0.79 to 0.91.Conclusion:The Suicide Outcomes Scale for Undergraduates with Suicidal Ideation(SOSUSI)has good validity and internal consistency reliability.

Objective To investigate the feasibility of AccuLearning system for the auto-segmentation of target areas and organs-at-risk(OAR)for total marrow and lymphoid irradiation(TMLI)in children.Methods Thirty pediatric patients who underwent TMLI since 2018 to 2022 were selected.The patients were immobilized in the supine position,and their CT images were acquired on the Philips Brilliance Big Bore CT scanner.After the target areas and OAR were manually delineated and modified,the CT images and manually delineated contours were imported into AccuLearning system for training,validation,and testing of the auto-segmentation model.The auto-segmentation results in 6 TMLI patients in the test set were evaluated in terms of Dice similarity coefficient(DSC),95%Hausdorff distance and average surface distance.Results On the test set with 6 cases,except for the lens that was difficult to be delineated automatically,the DSC values was above 0.70 for all other target areas and OAR,with only one patient having a DSC value of 0.59 for the stomach.The average DSC value for the stomach in all 6 patients was 0.76,and the average DSC values for the other organs were above 0.80.Conclusion The target areas and OAR automatically delineated with the model can meet the requirements of clinical planning after simple modifications.

  Objective  To evaluate the severity and features of pelvic coronal plane tilt in individuals with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) who had lumbar curvature during the gait cycle.  Methods  AIS patients with lumbar curvature and patients with microcurvature (Cobb Angle less than 10 degrees) treated in Peking Union Medical College Hospital from September 2020 to February 2023 were retrospectively included. According to PUMC conservative classification system and Spinal Full-length Standing X-ray, AIS patients with lumbar curvature were enrolled. The bilateral iliac crest was used as the bony marker of the pelvic coronal surface, and the bilateral iliac crest height and its changes were measured during the standing position and walking cycle, so as to evaluate the degree of pelvic coronal tilt in AIS patients with lumbar curvature.  Results  A total of 209 AIS patients with lumbar curvature and 36 patients with microcurvature who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled. The proportion of AIS patients with lumbar curvature who had a "congruent" relationship between the higher iliac crest and the convex side of the spine in standing position (iliac crest lower on the convex side than on the concave side) was significantly higher in AIS patients with lumbar curvature than patients with microcurvature(58.9% vs. 30.6%, P=0.002). AIS patients with lumbar curvature had statistically different bilateral iliac crest height change values throughout the gait cycle (including minimum, maximum, swing phase minimum, and swing phase maximum) (all P < 0.001), and the iliac crest height change values on the convex side were significantly higher than those on the concave side (all P < 0.05), whereas the patients with microcurvature did not have any statistically significant bilateral iliac crest height change values throughout the gait cycle (all P > 0.05).  Conclusion  The height of the iliac crest on the convex side of the lumbar spine is lower than that on the concave side in the standing position of AIS patients with lumbar curvature, and the value of the change of the iliac crest on the convex side of the pelvis is greater than that on the concave side in walking to maintain the balance of the body, which may provide a new direction for the intervention in the clinical rehabilitation treatment of AIS patients with lumbar curvature.

Objective:To assess the value of serum tumor specific protein 70 (SP70) for prognostic stratification in acute myeloid leukemia (AML).Methods:A cohort study design was adopted. 129 newly diagnosed AML patients from September 2022 to January 2024 at the Hematology Department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University were included, as well as a control group consisted of 120 healthy individuals and 7 cases with benign hematologic diseases during the same period (total 127 cases). Clinical data were collected from Electronic Medical Records. According to the 2023 edition of the Chinese Leukemia Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines, AML patients with good or moderate prognosis were categorized as low-to-intermediate risk, while those with poor prognosis were high-risk group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify variables significantly associated with AML prognostic risk. ROC analysis was used to evaluate diagnostic performance. A nomogram for predicting patient prognostic risk was constructed by R 4.0.2 software, and the internal validation was performed using bootstrapping.Results:Among 129 AML patients, there were 71 males (55.0%) and 58 females (45.0%), with 42 (32.6%) classified as high-risk and 87 (67.4%) as low-intermediate risk. The high-risk group had a significantly higher median age [62 (48, 67) years] compared to the low-intermediate risk group [50 (35, 63) years, Z=-2.381, P=0.017], and a significantly higher proportion of males (30 patients, 71.4%) compared to the low-intermediate risk group (41 patients, 47.1%, χ 2=6.760, P=0.009). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that serum SP70 ( OR=2.54, 95% CI: 1.68-3.84, P<0.001), hemoglobin (HB) ( OR=0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P<0.05), and bone marrow blast (BM blast) ( OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.13, P<0.05) were independent risk factors for high-risk prognosis in AML patients. ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for SP70 predicting high-risk patients was 0.908 (cut-off value of 5.74 ng/ml, 95% CI: 0.845-0.952, sensitivity 90.5%, specificity 82.8%). The combined model of serum SP70, HB, and BM blasts had an AUC of 0.931 (95% CI: 0.890-0.973); C-index=0.925 (95% CI: 0.876-0.963),with no statistically significant difference compared to serum SP70 alone ( Z=1.693, P>0.05). Conclusion:Serum SP70 may be a promising non-invasive molecular biomarker for prognostic stratification in AML.