Objective:To investigate risk factors for early mortality (EM) in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) and to build an EM-predictive model.Methods:In a cohort of 275 patients with NDMM, risk factors for EM at 6, 12, and 24 months after diagnosis (EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively) were determined to establish a model to predict EM.Results:The rates of EM6, EM12, and EM24 were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively. The most common cause for EM was disease progression/relapse, accounting for 60.0% , 77.1% , and 84.3% of EM6, EM12, and EM24, respectively. EM6 was associated with corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L and platelet count <100×10 9/L, whereas risk factors for EM12 included age >75 years, ISS Ⅲ, R-ISS Ⅲ, corrected serum calcium >2.75 mmol/L, serum creatinine >177 μmol/L, platelet count <100×10 9/L, and bone marrow plasma cell ratio ≥ 60% . In addition to the risk factors for EM12, EM24 was also associated with male sex and 1q21 gain. By multivariate analysis, age >75 years, platelet count <100×10 9/L, and 1q21 gain were independent risk factors for EM24 but there were no independent risk factors significantly associated with EM6 and EM12. Using a scoring system including these three risk factors, a Cox model for EM24 was generated to distinguish patients with low (score<3) and high (score ≥ 3) risk. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 20.7% and 99.2% , respectively. Further, an internal validation performed in a cohort of 183 patients with NDMM revealed that the probability of EM24 in high-risk patients was 26 times higher than that in low-risk patients. Moreover, this model was also able to predict overall survival. The median overall survival of patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 59, 41, 22, 17.5, and 16 months, respectively. Conclusion:In the study cohort, the EM6, EM12, and EM24 rates were 5.5% , 12.7% , and 30.2% , respectively, and disease progression or relapse were main causes of EM. An EM24-predictive model built on three independent risk factors for EM24 (age>75 years, platelet count<100×10 9/L, and 1q21 gain) might predict EM risk and overall survival.

Objective: To analyze the frequency and composition of risk-related cytogenetic abnormalities (CAs) in patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) . Methods: The frequency and composition of risk-related CAs from a cohort of 1 015 Chinese patients with NDMM were determined by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (iFISH) , individually or in combination. Results: Of the cohort of 1 015 Chinese patients with NDMM, the frequencies of IgH arrangement, del (13q) /13q14, 1q gain and del (17p) were 54.0%, 46.4%, 46.1% (35.8% and 12. 7% for 3 or more than 3 copies) and 9.9%, respectively. Among 454 patients who had the baseline information for all risk-related CAs [except t (14;20) , which was not covered by the FISH panels performed routinely at all five centers], the frequencies of t (4;14) , t (11;14) or t (14;20) were 14.1%, 11.2% and 4.8%, respectively; of them, 44.3% patients carried 2 or more CAs (28.0%, 13.4% and 2.9% for 2, 3 or ≥4 CAs) ; 83.3%, 95.0% or 68.6% patients with 1q gain, del (17p) or IgH rearrangement had 1 or more additional CA (s) , with del (13q) /13q14 as the most frequently accompanied CA; 57.7% patients carried at least 1 HRCA; the incidences of double-hit (DH) MM (DHMM) (=2 HRCAs) and triple-hit (TH) (THMM) (≥3 HRCAs) were 14.3% and 2.9%, respectively. Conclusions Our results provided an up-to-date profile of CAs in Chinese NDMM patients, which revealed that approximately 58% patients might carry at least 1 HRCA, and 17% could experience so-called DHMM or THMM who presumably had the worst outcome.