Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables ( ARIMAX ) model including meteorological factors on the prediction of influenza-like illness ( ILI ), so as to provide a basis for the monitoring and early warning of influenza. Methods: The ILI data reported by four sentinel hospitals in Yuhang District of Hangzhou from the 1st week of 2014 to the 26th week of 2018 was collected, as well as the meteorological data during the same period. The ARIMAX model was established using the percentage of ILI cases in total outpatients ( ILI% ) data from the 1st week of 2014 to the 52nd week of 2017 and the meteorological factors selected by Lasso regression model. The ILI% from the 1st to 26th week of 2018 was predicted and compared with the actual values to verify the ARIMAX model. Results: From the 1st week of 2014 to the 26th week of 2018, a total of 60 419 cases of ILI were reported by the four sentinel hospitals of Yuhang District, with ILI% of 1.29%. Lasso regression analysis showed that there was a positive correlation between weekly average absolute humidity and ILI% ( r=27.769 ), and a negative correlation between weekly average temperature and ILI% ( r=-0.117 ). The ARIMAX (1, 0, 0) ( 1, 0, 0 )12 with weekly average temperature and absolute humidity was selected as the optimal model, with the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value of 81.30 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value of 15.77%. The MAPE value of the ARIMAX model predicting the ILI% from 1st to 26th week of 2018 were 43.75%. Conclusion The ARIMAX model including meteorological factors can be used to predict the prevalence of ILI, but the accuracy needs to be promoted.

OBJECTIVE To analyze the homology of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae(KPN),offering help for clinical therapy and nosocomial infection control.METHODS The antimicrobial-resistant phenotype of forty carbapenem-resistant K.pneumoniae strains was analyzed by the WHONET 5.4 soft and the resistant genotypes were determined by plasmid profile analysis and pulse-field gel electrophoresis(PFGE).RESULTS Analyzing antimicrobial-resistant phenotype to usual eighteen clinical drugs,the main drug resistant profiles were pan-resistant and only sensitive to tobramycin among the eight antimicrobial-resistant profiles(72.5%).Additionally,the main strains were type Ⅰ and type Ⅱ among the five strains analyzed by plasmid profile(82.5%).When analyzed by PFGE,five types were identified and among these strains type Ⅰ was predominant in 34 strains(85.0%).CONCLUSIONS The strains used in this study exhibit higher homology.Therefore,clinical departments and nosocomial infection departments should pay more attention to these strains to avoid outbreak.

AIM: To explore the immunomodulatory effect of paecilomyces cicadidae polysaccharides (PCPS).METHODS: Subcutaneous injection with 50, l00, 200 mg/kg of PCPS were given in the back of the rats everyday for l5 days. The number of white blood cells (WBC) was counted. The activities of acid phosphatase (ACP) and lactase dehydrogenase (LDH)in liver, kidney, spleen and thymus were detected by automatic biochemistry analyzer. The ability of devouring neutral red and activity of ACP, LDH, arginase in alveolar macrophages were also detected. The body weight of the rat everyday during experiment and weight of the spleen and thymus after the rats were killed were measured and wet weight index was calculated.RESULTS: The wet weight index of spleen and thymus, the activity of ACP, LDH, arginase and ability of devouring neutral red in alveolar macrophages in the test group treated with PCPS were significantly higher than those in control group. CONCLUSION: PCPS shows a significant immunomodulatory effect with the increasing counts of WBC and activation of alveolar macrophages in a dose-dependent manner.

AIM:To investigate the effect of Ginkgo biloba extract(EGb761) on cell proliferation and expression of transforming growth factor ?1(TGF-?1) and connective tissue growth factor(CTGF) in rat hepatic stellate cells(HSC-T6).METHODS:HSC-T6 was cultured with EGb761 at concentration of 1,10,100 and 500 mg/L,and without EGb761 as blank control.MTT colorimetric assay was used for detecting the proliferation of HSCs and flow cytometry was used for observing the cell cycles of HSCs under different concentrations of EGb761.The expression of TGF-?1/CTGF mRNA and protein levels were determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) and Western blotting after 24 hours and 48 hours.RESULTS:EGb761 inhibited the proliferation of HSCs at the concentration of 10 mg/L,100 mg/L and 500 mg/L.G0/G1 stage was increased(P

Objective: To examine the effects of air pollution on overall mortality, mortality of respiratory diseases, and mortality of circulatory diseases among residents in Hangzhou City. Methods: Residents' mortality data in Hangzhou City from 2014 to 2016 were captured from Zhejiang Provincial Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System, and the ambient air quality in Hangzhou City from 2014 to 2016 were collected from Hangzhou Environmental Monitoring Center, while the meteorological monitoring data during the study period were collected from Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau. The effects of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and SO2 on overall mortality, morality of respiratory diseases and mortality of circulatory diseases were evaluated a generalized additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution, and the risk of mortality was described with excess risk (ER) and its 95%CI. Results: The daily M (QR) overall deaths, deaths from respiratory diseases and deaths from circulatory diseases were 111 (30), 16 (9) and 37 (14) persons in Hangzhou City from 2014 to 2016, respectively. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and SO2 resulted in 0.47% (95%CI: 0.23%-0.70%), 0.37% (95%CI: 0.21%-0.53%), 1.06% (95%CI: 0.50%-1.61%) and 3.08% (95%CI: 2.18%-3.99%) rises in the risk of overall mortality, 0.60% (95%CI: 0.04%-1.16%), 0.45% (95%CI: 0.06%-0.83%), 2.01% (95%CI: 0.84%-3.20%) and 6.06% (95%CI: 3.80%-8.37%) rises in the risk of mortality of respiratory diseases, and 0.45% (95%CI: 0.08%-0.83%), 0.44% (95%CI: 0.17%-0.71%), 1.43% (95%CI: 0.49%-2.37%) and 3.66% (95%CI: 2.13%-5.22%) rises in the risk of mortality of circulatory diseases, and the greatest effect was observed at a 2-day lag. Multi-pollutant model analysis showed that, after adjustment for PM2.5, NO2 and PM2.5+NO2+SO2, a 10 μg/m3 increase in SO2 resulted in an elevated risk of mortality of respiratory diseases than a single-pollutant model. Conclusions The air pollutants PM10, PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 correlated positively with the risk of overall mortality, mortality of respiratory diseases and mortality of circulatory diseases in Hangzhou City from 2014 to 2016, and the co-existence of multiple pollutants enhanced the effect of SO2 on mortality of respiratory diseases.

AIM: To investigate the effect of microwave ablation of liver cancer on the cellular immunity in mice. METHODS: A C57BL/6J mouse model of liver cancer was established by subcutaneous injection of Hepa 1 - 6 cells. The tumors were subjected to microwave ablation under the ablation condition of 45 ℃, 50 ℃, 55 ℃ or 60 ℃ for 180 s. The CD4~+ T cells, CD8~+ T cells and natural killer cells (NK) in peripheral blood were detected by FACS. The cytotoxicity of splenic NK and splenic cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) activated by inactivated Hepa 1-6 cells was assayed by LDH method. RESULTS: The proportions of CD4~+ T cells, CD8~+ T cells and NK cells in peripheral blood in 50 ℃ and 55 ℃ group at 21 d after ablation were significantly increased and that of NK cells in 60 ℃ group was significantly increased. There was no significant difference between those in group 42 d after ablation and control. The cytotoxicities of splenic CTL and NK cells in 50 ℃ and 55 ℃ groups at 21 d or 42 d after ablation were significantly increased, and they were much higher than those in 45 ℃ group at the same time. The cytotoxicities of splenic CTL in 50 ℃ and 55 ℃ groups at 21 d after ablation were much higher than that in 60 ℃ group at the same time. CONCLUSION: Under a certain ablation temperature, microwave ablation of liver cancer promotes the cellular immunity.

AIM:To investigate effect of hypoxia on the expression of proliferating cell nuclear antigen(PCNA) a nd phenotype of cardiac fibroblasts(CFs). METHODS: The purif ied cardiac fibro blasts were cultured and divided randomly into there groups :control group, mode rate hypoxia(MH) group and severe hypoxia(SH) group. After 72 h,MTT method was u s ed to investigate the proliferation of CFs, and the ultrastructure of fibroblast s were observed with transmission electron microscopy The expression of PCNA a n d ?-actin in cardiac fibroblasts were measured by the means of immunohistochemi s try and laser scanning confocal microscopy, respectively. RESULTS: MTT A 490 nm value of MH group was significantly higher than that of control group by (18 4?25 0)% ( P

Objective: To investigate the willingness to receive measles-containing vaccine (MCV) and its influencing factors among healthcare workers in the Yangtze River Delta region, so as to provide the evidence for improving the measles-containing vaccination rate Methods: Healthcare workers were sampled from 19 medical institutions in each of Shanghai Municipality, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province for questionnaire surveys using a multi-stage stratified convenience sampling methods from July 2020 to March 2021. Participants' gender, age, educational level, professional title, measles-containing vaccination, awareness of MCV and willingness to receive MCV were collected, and the factors affecting the willingness to receive MCV were identified among healthcare workers using a multivariable logistic regression model. Results: Totally 1 403 questionnaires were allocated, and 1 394 valid questionnaires were recovered, with an effective recovery rate of 99.36%. The respondents included 327 men and 1 067 women, with a male to female ratio of 1∶3.26, and 64.35% (897) were at ages of 31 to 50 years. There were 1 005 respondents with a bachelor degree (72.09%), 765 with middle and senior professional titles (54.88%), 676 with a history of measles-containing vaccination (48.49%), 1 176 with willingness to receive MCV (84.36%) and 218 without willingness to receive MCV due to convenience of vaccination (30.73%) and cost (19.27%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that region (Zhejiang, OR=1.613, 95%CI: 1.054-2.470; Anhui, OR=2.058, 95%CI: 1.259-3.363), and no history of measles (OR=2.219, 95%CI: 1.302-3.781) were factors improving the willingness to receive MCV among healthcare workers, and hospital level (secondary, OR=0.483, 95%CI: 0.306-0.763; tertiary, OR=0.251, 95%CI: 0.160-0.394), history of measles-containing vaccination (no, OR=0.262, 95%CI: 0.172-0.399; unknown, OR=0.386, 95%CI: 0.266-0.559), and unawareness of MCV knowledge (OR=0.208, 95%CI: 0.081-0.536) were factors inhibiting the willingness to receive MCV among healthcare workers. Conclusions The willingness to receive MCV correlates with region, history of measles, hospital level, history of measles-containing vaccination and awareness of MCV knowledge among healthcare workers in the Yangtze River Delta region.

OBJECTIVETo investigate the feasibility and efficacy of the ethanol pretreatment. Study was designed to confirm the proper range of the ethanol according to the toxicity and mortality, and then evaluate the possibility of application of the ethanol pretreatment.

METHODS(1) Thirty six male adult wistar rats pretreated with 40% ethanol were divided randomizely into six groups by different dosage: group A (8 g/kg), group B (7 g/kg), group C (6 g/kg), group D (5 g/kg), group E (4 g/kg), normal control group (0 g/kg). The safe dosage range of ethanol in rats was predicted by the observation of the symptoms after ethanol administration and pathological changes after 24 h. (2) Based on the results of experiment (1), this experiment were set as follows: 78 wistar rats were divided randomizely into 4 groups: normal control group, ethanol group, ischemia/reperfusion group (IR), ethanol pretreatment group (EP), in each group, the specimen were harvested from the rats at 3, 6, 12, 24 h after reperfusion and then were determined by different methods. (3) Based on the three variant factors (concentration, dosage and proper time for ethanol pretreatment), a orthogonal test were designed to optimize the ethanol pretreatment. 54 wistar rats used in this step were all subjected to hepatic schema procedure for 90 min and the specimens were harvested at 24 h after reperfusion.

RESULTSLess than 5 g/kg ethanol is safe to the rat, and it can reduce the 90 minutes IR injuries to the liver. Under the mode of A1B1C3, the more protection can be got for hepatic ischemia/reperfusion injuries.

CONCLUSIONProper dose of ethanol gavages to the rat is a safe pretreatment method, it maybe enhance the tolerance of rat liver to the I/R injuries.

Animals ; Ethanol ; pharmacology ; Ischemic Preconditioning ; methods ; Liver ; blood supply ; Male ; Random Allocation ; Rats ; Rats, Wistar ; Reperfusion Injury ; prevention & control